EZ SQUARE

Asian shares set for first weekly loss in five, China stimulus eyed

2024-10-11 16:39:39

By Stella Qiu

SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian shares were headed for their first weekly loss in five on Friday as a stunning rally in Chinese shares took a breather, although all eyes are on the details of much-anticipated fiscal stimulus from Beijing this weekend.

European stock markets are set to open slightly higher, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both up 0.2%. French bond futures rallied 33 ticks, slightly ahead of a small bounce in U.S. bonds, as France planned tax hikes and spending cuts to rein in its deficit.

Wall Street futures were flat. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) unveiled the long-awaited showcase of an autonomous taxi in Los Angeles, which came with fanfare but few details on timing. Production is not set to begin until 2026.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose a subdued 0.3% on Friday but was still set for a weekly loss of 1.7% after four straight weeks of gains. The Nikkei, however, gained 0.5%, bringing its weekly rise to 2.5%.

South Korean shares erased earlier gains and were last flat as the Bank of Korea's decision to start its easing cycle with a quarter-point move was widely expected.

China's blue chips fell 1.8% on Friday and were down 2.3% for the week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which was closed for a public holiday on Friday, fell 6.5% for the week, the biggest weekly drop in two years.

Investors' enthusiasm about China's economic stimulus announced last month has given way to concerns about whether the policy support would be big enough to revive growth, putting the spotlight on whether the finance ministry will announce significant fiscal stimulus at a press conference on Saturday.

Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said markets were "laser-focused" on the Saturday briefing.

"As any specific numbers on the extra budget and bond quota will require the approval of the National People’s Congress or its Standing Committee, which is highly unlikely to meet before the briefing, the market is keen to know what else the MOF might deliver," Lu said.

Overnight, data showed core U.S. consumer inflation came in at 0.3% in September, slightly hotter than expected, pointing to stalling progress in the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation.

However, high weekly jobless claims figures kept bets intact that the Fed is still on track to cut interest rates in November. Wall Street was slightly lower overnight.

Oil, which gained more than 3% overnight, fell slightly at the end of the week, with Brent futures slipping 0.3% on Friday to $79.17 a barrel.

It was, however, still up 1.4% in the week thanks to a spike in U.S. fuel use before Hurricane Milton and Middle East supply risks as investors brace for an Israeli response to an Iranian missile attack last week.

Treasuries rose on Friday, but are still set for weekly losses as traders pared expectations for outsized U.S. rate cuts. Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic on Thursday told the Wall Street Journal that he is open to a pause next month, although other officials supported more gradual rate cuts.

Two-year Treasury yields are up 4 basis points for the week to 3.9722%, while 10-year yields climbed 8 bps to 4.0669%.

Traders still price in an about 83% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next month and a 17% chance it would leave rates unchanged, according to CME's FedWatch.

"We think the FOMC remains on track to continue its level adjustment in policy rates with a 25bp cut in November. But our forecast for further easing in December is now being challenged by firm growth and inflation readings," said analysts at JPMorgan.

Currency market movements were subdued on Friday. The U.S. dollar is set for the second straight week of gains, hovering near a two-month top against major peers.

The euro lost 0.4% this week to $1.0934, undermined by expectations that the European Central Bank is almost certain to lower rates in both October and December.

Gold was last up 0.6% at $2,644.69 an ounce, holding ground above the key $2,600 level.

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