The war in Iran will once again likely be top of mind as a new trading week gets underway, with investors sifting through both ongoing air attacks and hopes for a possible ceasefire. Oil prices remain well above pre-war levels, underscoring worries over an energy shock that could become even more apparent in upcoming U.S. inflation data. Results from carrier Delta Air Lines and beverage group Constellation Brands will also be in focus, as quarterly earnings season is set to ramp up later this month.

1. Iran war

Traders will be returning to their desks after a holiday-shortened week to conflicting signals from the raging conflict in the Middle East.

On the one hand, Iran and the United States have received a framework to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, several media outlets reported, citing sources aware of the proposals. The plan could take effect as early as Monday.

According to the Associated Press, the plan has been put together by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey and was exchanged with both sides overnight. It reportedly follows a two-stage approach: an immediate ceasefire followed by a broader comprehensive agreement.

Meanwhile, Axios first reported Sunday that the U.S., Iran and regional mediators were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a two-phase deal that could lead to a permanent end to the war, citing U.S., Israeli and regional sources.

Yet despite hopes for an impending end to the fighting, the war has continued to intensify, with Iran and Israel launching fresh strikes at each other. Over the weekend, in a social media post and media interviews, U.S. President Donald Trump also issued a new warning that the U.S. would strike Iran’s power facilities if the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows, is not unblocked by Tuesday evening. Iran has rejected the ultimatum.

2. Oil prices remain elevated

Oil prices ticked down on Monday, retreating from some recent gains, due to hopes for an imminent end to the war in Iran.

However, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, remain not far from $110 a barrel, and well above levels prior to the start of the conflict in late February. Before the outbreak of the war, Brent was exchanging hands at around $70 a barrel.

The energy-price shock has fueled fears of a spike in inflation which could weigh on growth prospects for countries around the world and impact a wide array of industries. Some analysts have suggested that only the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could alleviate these gathering pressures.

On Sunday, the OPEC+ said it had agreed to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, although the uptick would likely be just on paper because critical members of the producer group are largely unable to expand production because of the war in Iran.

3. Inflation data ahead

Highlighting the economic calendar will be the release of the U.S. consumer price index for March, which observers will be assessing for any indication of the inflationary effects of the conflict in Iran.

Given the jump in crude prices, analysts have suggested that one of the major focal points of the CPI reading on April 10 will be a potential rise in motor fuel costs. Average U.S. gasoline prices climbed above $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years last week.

Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation closely monitored by the Federal Reserve.

But the PCE index will cover February, a period which mostly did not include the war in Iran, meaning that it is unlikely to reflect any significant impact from the fighting. Still, the figure could offer a glimpse into the state of inflation in the U.S. before the war took hold.

Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting are also set to be unveiled this week, and could provide more clues into the trajectory of the central bank’s monetary policy. The Fed held interest rates steady last month.

4. Delta Air Lines to report

War-fueled inflation may also factor into how the quarterly earnings season is viewed by Wall Street, with investors hoping that solid profits will help mitigate some of the knock-on effects of the conflict.

According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, S&P 500 companies are seen notching a 14.4% rise in first-quarter earnings compared to a year ago -- a potential sign that underlying corporate activity is healthy despite pressure from higher energy prices.

An initial batch of results are due out in the coming days, before the first-quarter reporting period kicks into gear next week.

Among the standouts on the docket is Delta Air Lines, which is scheduled to report before the opening bell on Wednesday.

Prior to the beginning of the fighting in the Middle East, the airline industry had been predicting record profits of $41 billion in 2026, Reuters reported. Whether carriers can remain profitable may end up depending on the longevity of the oil price spike, as it has forced airlines around the globe to hike fares and slash capacity.

5. Constellation Brands earnings

Elsewhere, Constellation Brands, the group behind beer names like Modelo Especial and Corona, is due to report after the bell on Wednesday.

Shares of the company have slid by more than 16% over the past one-year period, but have rallied by over 9% so far this year.

In January, Constellation Brands said it has been supported by demand for brews like Pacifico, Victoria, and Corona Familiar despite a challenging market for U.S. alcohol sales.

Yet executives flagged at the time that beer sales could stay volatile because of economic uncertainty and high unemployment among Hispanic customers, one of its largest customer bases.

UBS is maintaining its bullish outlook on gold, forecasting the metal to reach new highs this year as upside risks build, the bank’s strategist Joni Teves said in a Thursday note. 

The bullion has come under pressure in recent weeks as markets focused on the inflationary impact of higher oil prices and the prospect of further rate hikes, with rising U.S. real yields and a stronger dollar weighing on prices.

However, Teves sees the pullbacks as buying opportunities. "The risk that gold extends its bull run for a couple more years is rising. Weaker growth that triggers fiscal and/or monetary stimulus presents upside risks for gold," Teves noted.

"Our gold outlook is unchanged and we maintain our view that gold should see new highs this year. We think any pullbacks present opportunities for investors to build positions," he added.

UBS forecasts gold averaging $5,000 per ounce in 2026, revised down 4% from a prior estimate of $5,200, with the adjustment reflecting mark-to-market changes following gold’s retreat from its all-time high in late January. The bank’s 2027 and 2028 forecasts remain unchanged at $4,800 and $4,250, respectively.

Teves said speculative positioning has been flushed out and ETF outflows have been contained, leaving room for investors to rebuild. Gold ETFs in China have continued to see net inflows and onshore physical demand has remained healthy, which the strategist said could keep imports strong into the second quarter.

UBS views the market as underinvested and said it would view any pullback toward the $4,000 level as an opportunity to build positions. "There has been a structural shift in the gold market, wherein a widening base of private and public sector investors are viewing it as a long-term strategic asset that helps diversify and protect portfolios," the note said.

On silver, UBS trimmed its 2026 forecast to $91.9 per ounce from $105, though it still expects the metal to outperform gold when prices rally. Teves warned that silver’s role as an industrial metal leaves it exposed to any slowdown in global growth, which could drag on demand and dampen investor sentiment.

As a result, he said the gold-to-silver ratio "is likely to struggle to retest the lows earlier this year," with the ratio potentially bottoming only in the 50-60 range rather than revisiting the ~40 level seen earlier this year.

Platinum and palladium face similar headwinds from weaker industrial demand, though both could find support from supply concerns, particularly if Middle East tensions disrupt South African mining operations, the strategist said.

Gold prices slipped on Thursday, snapping a four-session winning streak as investors reacted to renewed escalation signals from U.S. President Donald Trump on the Iran conflict.

Spot gold was last down 2.6% at $4,637.25 per ounce by 03:41 ET (07:41 GMT), after climbing as high as $4,800.58/oz earlier in the session.

U.S. Gold Futures declined 3.1% to $4,664.15/oz.

Gold prices gained in the last four sessions amid some signs of easing geopolitical tensions and declining oil prices.

Among other precious metals, silver prices plunged 5.1% to $71.26 per ounce, while platinum fell 3.3% to $1,902.60/oz.

Trump vows to hit Iran ’extremely hard’ over next 2-3 weeks

Sentiment shifted after Trump said in a televised address that the U.S. would ramp up military operations against Iran over the next “two to three weeks,” reiterating Washington’s stance on preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

"We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong," Trump said.

The remarks marked a reversal from earlier comments this week, when Trump said the U.S. could leave Iran within a similar timeframe, even without a formal agreement.

Markets have remained highly sensitive to shifting rhetoric around the conflict, as investors reassess geopolitical risks.

Oil rebounds sharply, US dollar jumps

Oil prices rebounded sharply after President Trump’s speech, reinforcing concerns about inflationary pressures, which could keep interest rates elevated and limit the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.5% after two sessions of losses, making gold costlier for holders of other currencies.

Investors are also awaiting U.S. jobs data on Friday for cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, which remains a key driver for bullion.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.4% to $12,286.33 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures lost 1.3% to $5.54 a pound.

Most Asian currencies steadied on Wednesday after posting strong gains overnight, while the U.S. dollar weakened as risk sentiment improved following signs of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

The US Dollar Index edged 0.1% lower in Asian trading after settling 0.6% lower overnight.

US Dollar Index Futures also traded down 0.1% as of 23:52 ET (03:52 GMT).

Trump says Iran war could end soon; Hormuz risks remain

Investors reacted to comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that Washington could end its military campaign against Iran within “two to three weeks,” raising hopes of a near-term resolution.

The improved sentiment stoked a rally in risk assets, with Asian stock markets surging on Wednesday.

However, investors were cautious as a Wall Street Journal report said that Trump was willing to end the U.S. military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, underscoring persistent risks to global trade and energy supply.

Prospects for a durable peace deal between the United States and Iran remain uncertain despite recent diplomatic signals, analysts at MUFG said.

They noted key sticking points, including Iran’s internal power structure, the strategic leverage of the Strait of Hormuz, and broader regional tensions, warning that even a U.S. withdrawal could leave an “extremely unstable equilibrium.”

The Japanese yen's USD/JPY pair was largely muted after slipping 0.6% in the previous session.

The South Korean won's USDKRW pair edged up 0.2% on Wednesday, after falling 0.7% overnight.

The Indian rupee's USD/INR pair rose 0.2% to 93.68 rupees, after dropping 1% on Tuesday. The currency hit a record low of 95.22 rupees in the previous session.

China factory activity expands, but input costs surge

Economic data from China also underscored underlying pressures in the region.

The RatingDog Manufacturing PMI showed factory activity expanded for a fourth straight month in March, but growth slowed and missed expectations, highlighting a moderation in momentum.

The survey pointed to sharply rising input costs, driven in part by elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, with manufacturers facing the fastest increase in input prices since March 2022.

The Chinese yuan's onshore pair USD/CNY pair was largely muted while the offshore pair USD/CNH ticked down 0.2%.

Elsewhere, the Singapore dollar's USD/SGD pair traded flat. 

The Australian dollar's AUD/USD rose 0.2% on Wednesday.

Investors are now looking ahead to upcoming U.S. economic data, including the nonfarm payrolls report later this week, for further direction on monetary policy and currency markets.

Goldman Sachs is maintaining its forecast for gold to reach $5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, driven by expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, a normalization in speculative positioning, and continued central bank buying.

The bank’s analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven are holding that view even as bullion has pulled back roughly 15% to around $4,580 since the onset of the Middle East conflict. They attribute the selloff to a combination of factors, chiefly the nature of the conflict itself.

The energy supply disruption triggered by the war has stoked inflation fears and led markets to price out Fed rate cuts for this year entirely. Under that scenario, Goldman estimates gold’s current fair value at around $4,550 per troy ounce, assuming pre-conflict macro policy hedges remain in place.

Record levels of call option demand earlier this year also left gold exposed. As the Wall Street bank had flagged last month, that positioning meant even a mild equity market correction could produce an outsized pullback in gold prices, pointing to $4,700 as the floor of such a move.

With the selloff now having run its course, net speculative positioning on Comex has fallen to the 39th percentile and the call option overhang has been largely unwound — leaving the market in "cleaner" shape and, in analysts’ view, at a "more attractive entry point."

The analysts pushed back on the notion that gold has failed in its role as a safe-haven or inflation hedge. Gold, they argue, behaves differently depending on the type of inflationary shock.

Supply-driven stagflation, like the current episode, historically tends to favor commodities over gold, while the metal performs best when the threat stems from institutional credibility risks, such as doubts about a central bank’s ability to contain inflation.

"Like in 2022, gold typically underperforms initially in supply disruption episodes," the analysts wrote. "Supply‑driven inflation raises the risk of tighter monetary policy, higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and weigh on ETF demand, and equity market drawdowns trigger margin‑related liquidations."

On the matter of central bank selling, Thomas and Struyven dismissed concerns that Gulf states would follow Turkey — which reportedly sold around 52 tonnes — in liquidating reserves. Gulf nations hold far smaller gold shares in their reserves and typically manage their currencies through dollar-pegged systems, making U.S. Treasury sales more likely than gold disposals.

Looking ahead, Goldman’s base case rests on three drivers: a normalization of speculative positioning, which the bank estimates is worth around $195 per troy ounce; 50 basis points of Fed cuts expected by its economists, adding roughly $120; and a re-acceleration of central bank buying to around 60 tonnes per month, contributing an estimated $535.

Downside risks remain, however. A prolonged Hormuz disruption and further equity market weakness could push gold as low as $3,800 in a severe liquidation scenario, the analysts warned.

On the flip side, if geopolitical tensions, including developments in Greenland and Venezuela, were to accelerate diversification away from Western assets, prices could climb toward $5,700 or even $6,100.

"Gold allocations in Western private portfolios remain very low," the team observed, with ETF holdings representing roughly 0.2% of U.S. private sector portfolios, leaving substantial room for upside should sentiment shift.

Futures linked to the main U.S. averages ticked higher on Monday, while oil continued to climb, as investors assessed ongoing fighting in the Middle East that has entered a second month.

By 06:49 ET (10:49 GMT), the Dow futures contract had added 187 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures had risen by 26 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had jumped by 74 points, or 0.3%.

The main averages on Wall Street sank at the end of last week, even after President Donald Trump’s decision to delay until April 6 a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. attacks on domestic power facilities.

"[M]arkets remain very much on edge about the Middle East, and the consensus view is still that the conflict is set to escalate," analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.

A sharp spike in oil since the outbreak of the conflict in late February has sparked worries over renewed inflationary pressures in countries around the world, which could in turn spur on central bank interest rate hikes. Government bond yields have risen against this backdrop, including U.S. Treasuries, weighing on stocks.

Traders are no longer pricing in any rate easing by the Federal Reserve this year, versus expectations for two drawdowns prior to the war, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Key labor market and business activity data is due out this holiday-shortened week, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak later in the day.

Brent hovers above $115

With the conflict in the Middle East raging, the Wall Street Journal has reported that President Donald Trump is considering a potentially complex and risky military operation to remove almost 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran.

Meanwhile, troops from the U.S. 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit are said to have arrived in the Middle East, in a move reportedly aimed at giving Trump more options as he mulls over the next phase of the war. A Washington Post report said the Pentagon was preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran.

Tehran has vowed to destroy any U.S. forces that attempt to stage a ground incursion into the country.

At least 12 U.S. troops were injured in an Iranian attacks on an air base in Saudi Arabia over the weekend. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen joined the fray for the first time as well, firing attacks at Israel and exacerbating already heightened fears around disruptions to key energy supplies.

Should the Houthis target the Bab al-Mandab Strait in particular, the Vital Knowledge analysts flagged that a global shipping crisis already caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz off the southern coast of Iran would be "dramatically amplif[ied]." The Bab al-Mandab Strait is a key choke point for vessel traffic which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

Brent crude futures expiring in May jumped by 2.6% to $115.53 a barrel by 06:55 ET.

Trump says Iran negotiations going "well"

Trump suggested that direct negotiations with Iran were ongoing and that a deal with Tehran could be close.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said negotiations were going “extremely well,” and that a deal with Iran was possible, touting “regime change” in Tehran after U.S. strikes killed several top Iranian officials in the past month.

“I think we’ll make a deal with them, but it’s possible we won’t,” the president said. Responding to a reporter’s question, Trump said “I do see a deal with Iran, could be soon,” although he did not offer a specific timeline.

Iran has largely denied that direct talks with Washington had taken place since the onset of the war, and has called for a cessation in hostilities before any negotiations can take place.

Yet, as has been the case for much of the conflict, Trump’s statements came with caveats. Along with the WSJ report of a potential U.S. uranium extraction plan, the president told the Financial Times that he wants to take Iran’s oil and could seize Kharg Island, a major export hub for Tehran.

"Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options," Trump told the FT.

Gold prices rose more than 2% in Asian trading on Friday, supported by a slightly softer U.S. dollar and easing geopolitical tensions after Donald Trump signaled progress in talks with Iran.

Spot gold was last up 2.1% at $4,467.32 per ounce by 02:41 ET (06:41 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures rose 1.1% to $4,457.6/oz.

Gold declined nearly 3% in the previous session, and was set to fall 0.5% for the week.

Trump vows to pause Iran energy attacks

President Trump said on Thursday he would pause attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days at Tehran’s request and added that negotiations were “going very well.”

The temporary halt in hostilities reduced immediate safe-haven demand but also weighed on the dollar, lending support to bullion, which typically moves inversely to the greenback.

The US Dollar Index edged down 0.1% after three days of gains.

Gold markets have been highly volatile in recent weeks, as the ongoing Middle East conflict disrupted traditional safe-haven dynamics.

A sharp spike in oil prices earlier this month, triggered by supply disruptions from the Iran conflict, has fueled concerns over global inflation.

Higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and reinforce expectations that central banks will maintain interest rates at higher levels for longer.

Silver, platinum prices jump

Oil prices ticked lower on Friday and were set for a weekly loss amid de-escalation talks.

However, lingering uncertainty over the conflict’s trajectory and conflicting signals around efforts to end the war kept investors on edge.

Among other precious metals, silver prices climbed 2.6% to $68.75 per ounce, while platinum jumped 3.5% to $1,901.60/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1% to $12,254.95 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures gained 1.1% to $5.53 a pound.

The U.S. dollar steadied against most major currencies on Thursday, pausing after strong gains this month, as dealers awaited clarity on what would happen next in the Iran war and hence the direction of oil prices, inflation and central bank policy.

Iran’s foreign minister said the country was reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the war but did not intend to hold talks to end the widening Middle East conflict, leaving markets struggling for direction. 

The dollar has been the outperformer in currency markets since the war began at the end of February, as the U.S. is a net energy exporter unlike Europe, Japan and Britain. On Thursday it was steady against most major peers.

The euro was flat at $1.1557. It has fallen from above $1.80 in late February, but is off its mid-month lows close to $1.40.

Sterling was slightly softer at $1.3349. While it has fallen less against the dollar than the euro, the monthly directional pattern of a sharp decline and some rebound has been similar. The dollar was flat against the Japanese yen at 159.48, but close to last week’s near two-year top.

SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN SENTIMENT, ANALYST SAYS

ING currency analyst Francesco Pesole said in a note to clients that market sentiment had slightly improved after "some constructive headlines on the Middle East conflict".

"Still, the FX market isn’t ready to add another leg of de-escalation trade just yet. After all, oil prices still above $100 a barrel argue against aggressive dollar selling."

The implications of the war for currency markets are largely driven by oil and gas prices.

After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused energy prices to spike, traders have questioned previous inflation expectations and grown more confident that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep policy settings on hold throughout the year.

Market pricing sees around a 40% chance the Fed will raise rates by its December meeting.

The situation is different in Europe. Markets are close to fully pricing three European Central Bank rate hikes this year, and expect at least two, maybe three, from the Bank of England.

But remarks from policymakers are being monitored for signs they may prioritise keeping rates lower to support growth rather than hiking them to curb inflation.

The problem of higher energy costs for central banks is that they both hit growth and drive inflation.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday said the ECB would have to respond in a forceful or persistent way if inflation looked set to sit well above its 2% target for an extended period, but said even a more modest overshoot could call for a "measured" rate move.

Three BoE rate setters are also due to speak on Thursday.

Against the Chinese yuan, the U.S. dollar was flat at 6.908 yuan in offshore trading after Trump said he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15 following a delay due to the Iran war. 

The dollar was also steady against the Swiss franc at 0.7920 francs.

Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Wednesday, although Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel, as Middle East strikes continued despite talks of de-escalation.

As of 21:18 ET (01:18 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in May fell 3.8% to $100.51 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 3.1% to $89.50 per barrel.

Brent oil had slipped to as low as $97.15/barrel earlier in the day.

The decline followed reports that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war in the region, raising hopes for a ceasefire and reduced risks to key oil shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was “in negotiations right now” with Iran, adding that Tehran was “talking sense” and appeared eager to strike a peace deal.

However, media reports said Israel struck Iran’s capital, Tehran, on Wednesday, even as the U.S. signalled potential diplomatic progress.

Trump had earlier described talks with Iran as “productive” on Monday, but Iranian officials denied that any negotiations had taken place.

Oil markets had rallied sharply in recent sessions on fears that escalating tensions could disrupt supplies from the Middle East, a key producing region. Concerns had centred on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude flows.

Wednesday’s sharp selloff reflected a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium, as traders reacted to signs that tensions could ease.

Analysts said that while the prospect of de-escalation pressured prices, conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran were likely to keep markets volatile.

Markets remain tightly anchored to oil as investors navigate the fallout from the Iran conflict, with Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann saying crude is the key driver across asset classes.

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he said oil is “the lead asset” and that “all markets are correlated to oil,” as investors look for prices to stabilize after a period of sharp moves. He described the current phase of the conflict as one of “high velocity,” with elevated risk and markets still primarily treating the shock as inflation-driven rather than growth-destructive.

Daan Struyven, who leads Goldman research on oil markets, raised his oil price forecasts for the second time in under two weeks, citing prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising structural supply risks. The investment bank now assumes flows through the key shipping route will remain at just 5% of normal levels for six weeks, followed by a gradual one-month recovery, a scenario expected to materially tighten global supply.

In the near term, he expects prices to keep trending higher amid uncertainty, noting a “growing risk premium” will be needed to curb demand and guard against shortages.

Goldman now sees XBR/USD averaging $110 in March-April, up from $98 previously and significantly above 2025 levels. The bank also lifted its 2026 forecasts, with Brent seen at $85 and WTI/USD at $79, alongside higher long-dated price assumptions driven by deeper inventory drawdowns and a reassessment of effective spare capacity.

Difficult spot for central bankers

“You haven't seen as much damage on the growth side,” Mueller-Glissmann said, though he expects that balance to shift, with inflation expected to run “a bit higher” and growth “a bit lower” through the rest of the year.

Central banks face a difficult backdrop, he added, noting policymakers are reacting more aggressively after being late to respond in 2022. “It’s a very tough spot,” he said, as officials attempt to contain inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices.

On currencies and safe havens, Mueller-Glissmann said the dollar’s role is less clear this time, despite recent strength.

“We are still leaning more towards fading the dollar strength eventually,” he said, favoring the Swiss franc and yen instead.

Why gold is falling?

Gold has come under pressure largely because, according to Mueller-Glissmann, its role as a hedge against the dollar has weakened in the current environment. When the dollar strengthens, investors are typically less compelled to hold gold as a diversifier, reducing demand at the margin. That dynamic has been a key driver of the recent pullback, alongside tighter financial conditions and a more aggressive policy backdrop, the strategist explained.

Positioning has also played a meaningful role, he said. Gold entered the year with elevated exposure, initially driven by central bank buying and later reinforced by investor inflows. As market volatility picked up, part of that positioning has started to unwind, in some cases retail investors selling gold to raise liquidity. The fact that gold had previously performed well as a safe haven made it a natural source of funds during risk-off moves.

Finally, the speed of the recent decline suggests that derivatives have amplified the move, with options likely contributing to sharper, more mechanical selling, according to Mueller-Glissmann.

Despite this, the pullback in gold prices is not necessarily a shift in the longer-term thesis, he said.

"It does tell me, it's probably an opportunity for longer term investors," the strategist concluded.