U.S. stock futures traded in tight ranges Friday, with investors awaiting a key inflation report for confirmation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

At 05:40 ET (10:40 GMT), Dow Jones Futures slipped 18 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 Futures gained 11 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 104 points, or 0.4%.

The main averages closed in a mixed fashion in the prior session, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite both advancing, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged.

All three indices have managed to eke out small gains so far this week.

PCE inflation gauge in spotlight

Expectations of 25-basis point reduction at the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 meeting are running hot -- with futures now pricing in roughly an 87% probability -- on the back of recent weak labor data and broader signs of economic cooling.

Thursday’s weekly jobless claims plunged by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022, but economists cautioned that distortions tied to the Thanksgiving holiday may have exaggerated the decline.

Elsewhere, a private-sector payroll report from ADP on Wednesday showed a decline of 32,000 jobs -- the largest drop in over two and a half years, and a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas stated that announced job cuts dropped sharply in November but hiring intentions remained weak.

While the importance of price stability, the second element of the Fed’s dual mandate, has faded a little of late, all eyes are now on the release of the delayed monthly core inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), later in the session.

This is widely seen as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and a soft PCE print could further embolden rate-cut expectations.

Excluding food and energy, the underlying, or "core," PCE price index is seen holding at 2.9% in the 12 months to September and 0.2% month-on-month.

Beyond PCE, the economic calendar will feature the latest survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Netflix linked with Warner Bros Discovery’s film assets

In the corporate sector, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has entered into exclusive negotiations to purchase Warner Bros Discovery’s (NASDAQ:WBD) film and television studios as well as its prized streaming assets, media reports have said.

The streaming giant reportedly offered $28 per share for those portions of the long-time Hollywood stalwart, whose brands include HBO and DC Comics.

Should the transaction be finalized, it would transform Netflix into a media powerhouse with control over one of the most valuable content libraries in the entertainment industry.

Netflix and Warner Bros are anticipated to announce a deal imminently, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Elsewhere, Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) shares soared premarket after the cosmetics retailer topped Wall Street estimates for its fiscal third quarter and raised its full-year outlook.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) stock slumped after the cloud services and hardware company missed analysts’ revenue expectations for the fourth quarter, posting $9.68 billion versus a consensus estimate of $9.94 billion.

Crude steadies; WTI on track for weekly gain

Oil prices steadied Friday, maintaining the previous session’s gains as stalled diplomatic progress over the Ukraine war and firm expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut supported sentiment.

Brent futures slipped 0.1% to $63.24 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.1% to $59.60 a barrel.

Both contracts jumped nearly 1% on Thursday, and while Brent was mostly unchanged this week, WTI was on track for a 1.5% weekly gain - a second straight week of increase.

The lack of progress in U.S.-Russia talks to end the Ukraine war has dampened hopes that energy sanctions on Russian crude could be eased soon, keeping a risk premium in the market.

Gold prices edged down in Asian trading on Thursday, weighed by profit-taking even as investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

Spot gold was last down 0.3% at $4,191.55 an ounce by 02:28 ET (07:28 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for February delivery also slipped 0.3% to $4,219.46.

US data support Fed easing bets

The decline came even as markets priced in a nearly 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The latest data in the U.S. bolstered sentiment toward a rate cut. Private payrolls shrank by 32,000 in November according to the ADP employment report -- a notable downturn from October’s revised 47,000-job gain and far short of expectations for positive growth.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index showed modest expansion in November, but underlying data suggested cooling.

Investors now await a more definitive signal from the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, due Friday, to better confirm how aggressive any rate cut might be.

Adding to the uncertainty are media reports that the Trump administration abruptly cancelled interviews with several candidates to succeed Jerome Powell, strengthening speculation that Kevin Hassett could emerge as the next Fed chair.

Those reports have bolstered expectations of a more dovish Fed stance under new leadership, a development that could favour non-yielding assets such as gold.

Metal markets dip

Other precious and industrial metals traded lower on Thursday as investors squared positions ahead of the Fed decision.

Silver futures fell 1% to $58.00 per ounce, while Platinum Futures dropped 1.3% to $1,661.60/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged down 0.2% to $11,455.260 a ton, while U.S. Copper Futures were unchanged at $5.39 a pound.

Gold prices held largely steady in Asian trading on Wednesday, as investors waited for key U.S. economic data and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where a rate cut is broadly expected.

Spot gold last traded flat at $4,204.55 an ounce by 02:45 ET (07:45 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for gained 0.4% to $4,235.75.

The yellow metal had hit a six-week high of $4,264.29/oz earlier this week.

Fed-cut bets, dollar weakness stir bullion demand

Markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

A dovish tilt has pushed the U.S. dollar lower -- the US Dollar Index has dipped toward its weakest levels since mid-November -- rendering gold more attractive for overseas buying.

At the same time, softening signals from U.S. economic data have reinforced speculation about rate cuts. Market participants are awaiting the release of the private-sector ADP National Employment Report for November due Wednesday and the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) scheduled for Friday — both closely watched by the Fed.

Potential Fed leadership change adds to dovish narrative

Markets are also speculating about a leadership change at the Fed. Reports suggest that Kevin Hassett, a White House economic adviser known for his support of lower interest rates, is a front-runner to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell.

That possibility has added to the anticipation of a softer monetary policy stance under new leadership, bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Metal markets subdued

Other precious and industrial metals traded in tight ranges on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the Fed decision.

Silver Futures were unchanged at $58.67 per ounce, just below record highs of $59.65. Platinum Futures fell 1.2% to $1,663.60/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange gained 0.5% to $11,255.20 a ton, while U.S. Copper Futures rose 0.7% to $5.29 a pound.

U.S. stock futures are muted, with investors eyeing a slump in Bitcoin as well as expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Bitcoin hovers around the flatline, as souring risk appetite dents the appeal of the cryptocurrency. Gold inches lower, hit by a climb in U.S. Treasury yields, while oil prices waver. Elsewhere, Marvell Technology is due to report after the closing bell, with U.S. chipmaker possibly set to provide fresh perspective on the artificial intelligence craze.

1. Futures muted

U.S. stock futures were subdued on Tuesday, after the first trading session of December featured a slide in the price of Bitcoin, a jump in Treasury yields, and tepid U.S. economic data.

By 03:17 ET (08:17 GMT), the Dow futures contract had fallen by 71 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had dipped by 12 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had declined by 58 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages declined on Monday, with sentiment clouded over by figures from the Institute for Supply Management showing that manufacturing sector activity contracted for a ninth straight month in November, suggesting ongoing pressure from sweeping tariffs.

Widespread market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month remained intact following the data. There is about an 85% chance of a quarter-point reduction at the end of the Fed’s meeting on December 9-10, according to CME FedWatch.

Meanwhile, U.S. government bond yields, which tend to move inversely to prices, rose following Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments that economic conditions were supportive of a potential borrowing cost hike in the Asian nation. Japanese and European government bonds also faltered.

At the same time, a steep slide in Bitcoin weighed on stocks exposed to the world’s largest cryptocurrency and marker of broader risk sentiment. Strategy, the biggest holder of digital assets, brought down its 2025 earnings forecast due to weakness in Bitcoin, sending shares in the company lower.

2. Bitcoin hovers around flatline after steep fall

Bitcoin oscillated around the flatline on Tuesday.

The steep selloff on Monday drove the cryptocurrency below $84,000, as a renewed bout of risk aversion hit digital assets at the start of December.

Traders sounded a glum note around Bitcoin, despite a recent rebound from levels near $80,000 late last week.

By 03:32 ET, Bitcoin was trading down 0.4% at $86,480.3. In November, the cryptocurrency shed over $18,000 -- its sharpest slump since 2021. Underscoring its volatility, the token is now down around 30% from an all-time peak reached mere weeks ago in October.

3. Gold dips

Gold prices edged lower as the uptick in U.S. Treasury yields weighed on the metal, with investors turning cautious ahead of a series of key economic indicators and the Fed’s highly anticipated policy decision.

Spot gold slipped 0.4% to $4,213.95 per ounce as of 03:40 ET after touching a six-week high in the previous session. U.S. gold futures traded 0.7% lower at $4,245.25.

The pullback came as benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hovered near a two-week high, eroding demand for non-yielding bullion and tempering optimism around growing expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut.

Despite the softer tone, the underlying sentiment toward gold remained broadly constructive. Market pricing continues to reflect firm expectations that the Fed could deliver another interest-rate cut next week, with investors betting that softening inflation and signs of cooling labor conditions will give policymakers room to ease.

4. Oil wavers

Oil prices wavered, as Ukraine peace hopes remained fragile, tensions mounted between the U.S. and Venezuela and a group of major producers lifted output levels.

Brent futures dipped 0.2% to $63.04 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.1% to $59.27 a barrel by 03:45 ET.

Both benchmarks advanced more than 1% on Monday, with the WTI contract near a two-week high.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that Kyiv’s priorities were to maintain sovereignty and ensure strong security guarantees, adding that territorial disputes remained the most complicated sticking point.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is due to brief the Russian authorities Tuesday, but an immediate end to the approaching four-year long conflict appears unlikely.

Tensions between Washington and Caracas have also become heightened after U.S. officials signalled they may tighten restrictions on Venezuela, which is seen as having the largest oil reserves in the world, including closing their airspace.

On Sunday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, reaffirmed a small oil output increase for December but also a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year due to rising fears of a supply glut.

5. Marvell to report

On a relatively light earnings calendar, U.S. chipmaker Marvell Technology will likely be the headliner.

The semiconductor group has been a major competitor of larger rival Broadcom as a provider of custom and networking chips. On Monday, media reports said it is in advanced discussion to acquire startup Celestial AI in a potential cash-and-stock deal worth multiple billions of dollars.

According to The Information, the transaction, whose total price could be higher than $5 billion, may be confirmed as soon as today. By folding in Celestial AI, Marvell is aiming to strengthen its portfolio during a time when the artificial intelligence boom has fueled a spike in demand for computing power.

When it reports after the closing bell on Tuesday, Marvell is seen posting earnings per share of $0.74, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. Shares of the company, which provided an underwhelming forecast for its data center business in August, have slid by 18% so far this year.

The "Magnificent" tech stocks continue to dominate market attention, with recent WarrenAI rankings highlighting the strongest performers based on growth metrics, analyst sentiment, and valuation. These industry giants have demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth potential despite varying market conditions.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) claims the top position with a compelling combination of explosive growth and relative value. The chip giant posted a 28.1% one-year total return, but analysts see significant runway ahead with 45.7% upside potential. With revenue growth of 62.5% and forecasted EPS growth of 60.3%, NVIDIA’s forward PEG ratio of 0.66 suggests it remains undervalued relative to its growth trajectory, according to WarrenAI’s analysis.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA): The semiconductor powerhouse continues its dominance in the AI chip market, delivering a 28.1% one-year total return. With a forward PEG ratio of 0.66 and analyst upside of 45.7%, NVIDIA combines strong historical performance with substantial growth potential, making it WarrenAI’s top pick among Magnificent stocks.

Analysts at Bernstein recently reiterated an Outperform rating on Nvidia, maintaining a positive outlook on the company.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL): Google’s parent company recorded the highest one-year return at an impressive 90.3%, demonstrating remarkable momentum. With forecasted EPS growth of 33.2% and a PEG ratio just above 1.0, analysts still see 12.0% upside potential. WarrenAI highlights Alphabet’s strong earnings quality alongside its market-beating performance.

In recent developments, Alphabet is seeing increased interest in its custom AI chips, with reports that Meta is considering a purchase of its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). Additionally, the Adani Group is reportedly planning a significant investment in Google’s AI data center infrastructure in India.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): The software giant delivered a 17.0% one-year total return, with analysts projecting modest additional upside of 2.8%. Microsoft’s appeal lies in its financial stability, with a 33.3% return on equity and 55.6% EBITDA margin. WarrenAI notes its forward PEG of 1.53 reflects premium pricing for its steady, quality growth.

Microsoft received continued positive sentiment from analysts, with both Bernstein and BMO Capital reiterating Outperform ratings, citing strong demand for its Azure cloud platform.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META): The social media titan posted a 13.2% one-year return with analysts forecasting similar upside potential at 12.7%. Despite a negative forward PEG ratio (-5.99) indicating forecast volatility, WarrenAI points to Meta’s attractive P/E ratio of 27.4x and improving cash flow as positive indicators of its turnaround story.

Meta Platforms has faced legal and regulatory actions, including an agreement by leadership to pay $190 million to resolve a shareholder privacy lawsuit and a Spanish court order to pay €479 million to media publishers.

These rankings reflect current market conditions and company fundamentals as assessed by WarrenAI’s analytical framework, combining traditional metrics with growth projections to identify relative strength among these market leaders.

An outage on exchange operator CME Group’s platform disrupts trading in futures in a slew of assets, leaving traders flying blind ahead of a shortened U.S. session. The U.S. dollar is on track for its worst week in four months, as wagers on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month grow. Meanwhile, core consumer inflation in Tokyo stays above the Bank of Japan’s target in November, bolstering the case for a near-term hike in borrowing costs in the country.

1. CME glitch impacts commodities, FX, stock futures

Commodities futures and options trading on CME Group’s popular platform was halted on Friday due to a technical issue at data centers, the world’s largest exchange operator said in a social media post.

“Due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers, our markets are currently halted,” CME Group said in a statement posted on X. The company said it was working to fix the issue in the near-term.

Dallas-based CyrusOne operates more than 55 data centers in the U.S., Europe and Japan.

A host of commodities and agricultural goods contracts appeared to be disrupted by the outage. Futures prices for equity indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, also appeared to be impacted.

The outage contributed to already slow trading volumes across the globe following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

Futures are a key component of financial markets, used by a wide variety of participants -- from trading desks to individual speculators -- to hedge or take positions in a range of financial assets.

2. Asian markets steady to end tough November

Asian stocks ended a difficult November on relatively steady footing, despite pressure on Chinese markets from renewed concerns over a property market meltdown in the country.

Japanese shares moved in a flat-to-low range as a swath of data showed unexpected resilience in the economy, driving up expectations for an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

Regional markets received few trading cues on account of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Overall losses in Asian stocks were still limited by optimism over a U.S. interest rate cut in December. But most bourses in the region were nursing losses for November, following a tumble in tech valuations through most of the month fueled partially by worries over the sustainability of massive spending on artificial intelligence.

Elsewhere, European stocks oscillated around the flatline on Friday, with a fifth straight month on gains in regional shares hanging in the balance.

3. Dollar on track for worst week in four months

The U.S. dollar strengthened slightly, but the greenback is still facing its sharpest weekly drop since July as traders assess the probability of a rate reduction by the U.S. Federal Reserve next month.

By 03:28 ET (08:28 GMT), the U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of its global peers, had ticked up by 0.1% to 99.70.

Traders have raised the odds of a 25-basis-point Fed cut at the December 9-10 meeting to around 85% from roughly 40% earlier this month, a swing that has knocked the dollar lower and trimmed bond yields.

The shift was driven by benign U.S. data and some dovish comments from Fed policymakers, although other officials have called for a more cautious approach to rate changes due to a lack of fresh economic data.

Speculation over a possible appointment of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett to the Fed Chair role has added another layer to the debate. A Hassett-led policy stance could tilt toward faster and more aggressive easing, a dynamic that would typically put further pressure on the dollar.

4. Tokyo CPI in focus

Tokyo’s headline consumer price index remained unexpectedly steady at 2.7% in November amid high food prices, with underlying inflation also remaining well ahead of the Bank of Japan’s annual target.

So-called "core" CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, grew 2.8% year-on-year in November, government data showed on Friday. The print was slightly above expectations of 2.7% and matched the prior month’s pace.

The core CPI reading, which is closely watched as a gauge of underlying inflation by the Bank of Japan, was above the central bank’s 2% annual target.

Sticky inflation could give the BOJ more impetus to hike interest rates. Policymakers have recently signaled they will consider raising rates at the BOJ’s December meeting.

But such increases risk putting the central bank at odds with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government, which has broadly called for looser monetary conditions and more fiscal spending to support economic growth.

5. Bitcoin hovers above $91,000

Bitcoin dipped marginally, yet floated above the $91,000 mark, as markets increasingly bet on a December interest-rate cut by the Fed and weighed the implications of the potential leadership change at the central bank.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was down 0.4% at $91,129.7 by 03:44 ET. Last Friday, the digital asset briefly sank to near $80,000, its weakest level since April.

For the week, Bitcoin was set for a rise of nearly 8%, which would snap four straight weeks of declines.

The dollar was drifting toward its largest weekly drop in four months on Thursday as trade thinned ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, leaving investors mulling the coming year where the U.S. is looking increasingly lonely in cutting rates.

The yen edged 0.2% higher to 156.11 per dollar in Asia trade, helped by a hawkish turn in tone from Bank of Japan officials.

U.S. markets are shut for Thanksgiving, leaving liquidity thin and amplifying moves in currency trading.

"That could be an attractive environment for Japanese authorities to intervene in dollar/yen," said Francesco Pesole, forex strategist at ING.

"However, there may still be a preference to intervene after a dollar-negative data event, and the stall in the pair may have removed some sense of urgency," he added.

The euro dropped 0.05% to $1.1590, after hitting a 1-1/2-week high earlier in the session at $1.1613.

Markets are watching negotiations over a possible Ukraine peace deal, which could lift the single currency. 

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Moscow next week for talks with Russian leaders, but a senior Russian diplomat said on Wednesday Russia will make no big concessions. 

A resurgent New Zealand dollar skipped out to a three-week peak of $0.5728 and has gained about 2% since a hawkish shift at the central bank a day earlier.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates on Wednesday but said a hold was discussed and flagged that the easing cycle was likely over. Helped by some strong economic data on Thursday, markets see rates going higher and price in a hike by December 2026.

That contrasts with more than 90 basis points of cuts priced for the U.S. Federal Reserve between now and the end of next year.

Data showed New Zealand retail sales rose in the third quarter, while business confidence jumped to its highest in a year.

"Kiwi green shoots are really starting to mushroom quite quickly now," said Westpac strategist Imre Speizer.

THE AUSSIE YIELDER

The Australian dollar has also been gaining after a hotter-than-expected inflation reading on Wednesday added to the case that the easing cycle there is also finished.

Australia’s 3-year and 10-year rates of 3.86% and 4.5%, respectively, are the highest in the G10, which analysts point out makes the currency look cheap. [AUD/]

At $0.6536 the Aussie is in the middle of a channel where it has traded for about 18 months. Kit Juckes at Societe Generale, however, notes it has more closely tracked China’s yuan than interest rates lately - which could support further gains as the yuan has climbed sharply in recent sessions.

Pushback from China’s central bank fixing mechanism steadied the yuan at 7.08 per dollar on Thursday. [CNY/]

Sterling inched up to its highest since late October at $1.3265 and was on course for the largest weekly rise since August as Britain’s budget alleviated some concerns about the national finances.

DOLLAR DOWN

The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% at 99.62, having retreated from a six-month high hit a week ago to head for its largest weekly drop since July.

"The market will soon be thinking about the big trades for 2026, and I strongly doubt that ’long USD’ will be one of them," said Spectra Markets’ President Brent Donnelly.

He said if White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett - an advocate for rate cuts - were appointed the next Federal Reserve chair it ought to be a negative catalyst for the dollar.

"Once we get past Friday, all the corporate and real money USD demand is done."

 Deutsche Bank lifts its 2026 gold price forecast, citing resilient investor demand, strong central-bank buying, and limited supply response.

The bank now expects gold to average $4,450/oz in 2026, up from a previous forecast of $4,000/oz, with a projected trading range of $3,950–4,950/oz. A high of $4,950/oz would sit about 14% above current December 2026 futures, it said.

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The upgrade reflects a combination of stabilising short-term flows, constructive technical indicators and supply-demand trends that continue to lean in gold’s favour.

“The positive structural picture shows inelastic demand from central banks and ETF investment diverting supply from the jewellery market. Also, overall growth in demand outpaces supply,” analyst Michael Hsueh said in a note.

Gold’s outperformance relative to the U.S. dollar and its unusually wide 2025 trading range—its largest since 1980—also underpin the constructive setup heading into 2026.

Hsueh expects official sector buying to rebound next year after a slight dip in 2025. He cites reserve-manager surveys showing the highest share of central banks planning to increase gold allocations in years, with one respondent calling gold the “ultimate protection against black swan tail risk events.”

Third-quarter official demand was the third highest on record in real-dollar terms despite elevated prices.

On the investment side, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returned to net accumulation this year after four years of outflows. Hsueh argues that the recent rapid but brief liquidation phase likely “suggests that the $3,900/oz support will hold,” supported further by seasonally strong early-year buying patterns.

Supply is expected to rise only modestly in 2026, with mined output at 3,715 tonnes. Hsueh points to lagging production responses, recycling that remains below historical peaks and conservative long-term price assumptions within the mining sector.

The analyst notes that many large mining projects still use planning price assumptions well below market levels, reinforcing a slow supply elasticity even after significant price gains. A significant supply disruption at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine is also expected to offset new project additions.

Potential risks to the outlook include a deeper equity-market correction, fewer expected Fed rate cuts, or a sharp slowdown in official buying.

Futures linked to the main U.S. stock indices inch lower, with markets gearing up for the release of closely-watched -- and delayed -- economic figures. Investors will have the chance to pour through metrics of retail sales and producer prices, among other data points, as Federal Reserve officials debate the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. Google reportedly ratchets up its drive to rival Nvidia in the artificial intelligence chip race, while server provider Dell is due to report its latest earnings.

1. Futures edge lower

U.S. stock futures pointed lower on Tuesday, indicating some investor caution ahead of a crucial batch of fresh economic data this week.

By 02:35 ET (07:35 GMT), the Dow futures contract had ticked down by 42 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had dipped 7 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had declined 46 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street advanced on Monday to begin a trading week due to be shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday.

Underpinning sentiment were comments from Federal Reserve policymakers which bolstered hopes for an interest rate cut at the central bank’s upcoming meeting in December.

Such expectations helped to offset ongoing concerns over a potential artificial intelligence bubble, with fears especially swirling around the sustainability of massive — and increasingly debt-fueled — spending on infrastructure for the nascent technology.

Yet, as analysts at Vital Knowledge argued, this gloomy narrative has displayed signs of “stabilizing.”

“Money isn’t exiting AI but instead shifting,”as cash pours into Google and chipmaker Broadcom to capitalize on the search giant’s new Gemini model and powerful AI-optimized processors, the analysts said.

They added that, against this backdrop, “there’s a bit more comfort in a the prospect of a year-end rally,” although investors are still wary after a recent bout of volatility.

2. Key economic data ahead

Attention now turns to the economic calendar, which is once again replete with consequential figures after the end of a record-long federal government shutdown.

The temporary closure had delayed several of these readings, depriving markets and rate-setters of crucial information needed to take decisions on everything from investments to borrowing costs.

On Tuesday, the slate of data will include gauges of retail sales and producer price growth. Consumer spending remains a crucial cog of the American economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of activity, while inflation has appeared to stay stubbornly elevated.

But, such was the length of the shutdown, the numbers only cover the month of September — and analysts have suggested that the state of the economy may have already changed compared to just two months ago.

3. Fed members on rate outlook

Given this rather murky picture of the wider economy, the Fed faces a difficult choice at its December gathering.

Officials seem to be unusually divided over whether to slash rates for the third straight meeting, or keep borrowing costs steady at their current target range of 3.75% to 4%.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Christopher Waller both appeared to support the former option in comments on Monday, underlining a desire to prioritize support for a weakening labor market over sticky price gains. Wagers on a 25-basis point rate reduction next month have subsequently risen.

However, other Fed members have highlighted some reticence to cut in an environment where the central bank does not have the latest economic data. At the same time, some have expressed wariness about the path ahead for rates beyond December.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the final call will ultimately fall to Fed Chair Jerome Powell — but either choice will come with significant drawbacks and risks.

4. Meta, Google discuss TPU deal - The Information

Google is sharply escalating its bid to rival Nvidia in the AI chip race, and Meta Platforms is emerging as a potential multibillion-dollar customer, The Information reported Monday evening.

For years, Google has limited its custom tensor processing units (TPUs) to its own cloud data centers, renting them out to companies running large-scale AI workloads. But according to The Information, Google is now pitching the chips for deployment inside customers’ own data centers, marking a major shift in strategy.

One of those customers is Meta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram. The firm is reportedly in discussions to spend billions of dollars to integrate Google’s TPUs into its data centers starting in 2027, while also planning to rent TPU capacity from Google Cloud as early as next year. Meta currently relies primarily on Nvidia GPUs for its AI infrastructure.

Shares of Google-parent Alphabet were higher in premarket U.S. trading on Tuesday, while Nvidia dropped by a little over 2%.

5. Dell to report

More corporate earnings are also due out today, as the latest quarterly reporting period ebbs to a close.

Dell Technologies will headline the slew of results after the bell on Wall Street. The company, whose customers including groups like CoreWeave and Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI, almost doubled its annual profit growth target for the next four years in October, underscoring its big bet on surging demand for its servers which help power AI models.

Annual growth in adjusted per-share profit is now tipped to be at least 15%, up from roughly 8% previously. Revenue, on an annualized basis, is seen increasing at between 7% and 9% during the period, versus a prior projection of 3% to 4%.

Soaring expenditures on Dell’s servers have cemented its position as one of the major beneficiaries of the AI boom, although analysts have flagged worries that heavy competition and the high costs related to building these products could dent income margins.

The U.S. dollar slipped marginally lower Friday, but was still set for a weekly gain as traders trimmed bets on further policy easing from the Federal Reserve next month. 

At 04:20 ET (09:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower to 100.042, on course for a weekly gain of 0.8%. 

Dollar set for weekly gains

The U.S. currency received a boost on Thursday after the delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report painted a mixed picture of the country’s labor market, reinforcing the view that the Fed is likely to hold interest rates unchanged at its December meeting.

The minutes from the Fed’s October meeting minutes showed a split among policymakers over whether to cut in December, and with the jobs report failing to offer a definitive picture a hold seems the likely result.

“This week’s events only seem to have delayed expectations for the Fed easing cycle,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “The terminal rate for the easing cycle is still priced around the 3.00% area for next year, but the market has switched to favoring the next cut in January (24bp priced) versus December (10bp priced).”

There are more economic numbers to digest Friday, with the focus likely to be on the S&P PMI readings and final readings for November consumer sentiment. 

Euro helped by solid PMI data

In Europe, EUR/USD edged 0.1% higher to 1.1538, helped by data showing eurozone business activity grew steadily this month as services expanded at the quickest pace in 18 months.

The HCOB flash eurozone composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, declined slightly to 52.4 in November from a more-than two-year high of 52.5 in October, marking its 11th consecutive month above the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction.

“These [PMI numbers] have been a source of comfort to the euro in that business sentiment has stayed relatively constructive, suggesting businesses are finding workarounds for the new tariff environment,” said ING.

“If EUR/USD can somehow make it back above 1.1560/65 today, it will have had a good week.”

GBP/USD traded 0.1% higher to 1.3085, with sterling edging higher even after U.K. retail sales fell 1.1% in October and a closely watched gauge of household sentiment fell this month, adding to signs of waning consumer spending ahead of finance minister Rachel Reeves’ budget next week.

Yen gains on lifted rate hike expectations 

In Asia, USD/JPY dropped 0.4% to 156.76, with the yen in demand after data showed core consumer inflation stayed above the BOJ’s 2% target in October, keeping alive the possibility of a rate hike as soon as its next policy meeting on December 18 and 19.

The Bank of Japan will discuss at upcoming policy meetings the feasibility and timing of a rate hike with the focus on next year’s wage-growth impulse, governor Kazuo Ueda said, signalling the chance of a near-term rise in still-low borrowing costs.

This follows the news that Japan’s parliament on Friday approved a ¥21.3 trillion ($135 billion) stimulus package, clearing the way for one of the country’s largest spending drives since the pandemic as the government seeks to revive consumption and support key industries.

USD/CNY edged 0.1% lower to 7.1093, while AUD/USD gained 0.2% to 0.6450, but still on track for hefty losses this week as risk appetite dwindled.