Ahead of a much-anticipated August 1 deadline for his "reciprocal" duties to come into effect, Trump signed a proclamation on Thursday night lifting tariffs to as much as 50% on dozens of countries, as he steps up his drive to upend a global trading system he has described as unfair to U.S. interests. The levies are now set to activate at 12:01 am on August 7.

Major industrialized economies such as the European Union, Japan and South Korea will face duties of 15%, while other countries who run a trade surplus with the U.S. will be hit with tariffs of 10%.

Even higher tariffs are set to be slapped on other nations, including 50% levies on Brazil. Trump increased tariffs on Canada to 35% for goods that do not comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which was signed during Trump’s first term.

Meanwhile, Trump and Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico was granted another 90-day reprieve to forge an agreement with Washington.

In a note, the Wolfe analysts estimated the aggregate tariff hike would amount to roughly $58 billion, below its prior projection of $85 billion, due largely to additional deals with countries notched this week.

"The incremental easing from deals with South Korea et al. was partially offset by higher tariffs on India, Taiwan, and some other countries not covered by Trump’s letters," the strategists wrote.

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Meanwhile, the anticipated total effective U.S. tariff rate of 16.1% could rise further when separate sector-specific levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals roll out in the weeks ahead, the analysts suggested.

1. Futures rise

U.S. stock futures ripped higher on Thursday, fueled in part by blockbuster tech earnings that helped temper indications from the Federal Reserve that a September interest rate reduction may not be coming.

By 03:43 ET (07:43 GMT), the Dow futures contract had jumped by 171 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures had gained 64 points, or 1.0%, and Nasdaq 100 futures surged by 330 points, or 1.4%.

The main averages on Wall Street were mixed at the end of trading on Thursday, as investors assessed the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged after its latest gathering and commentary around future policy actions (more below).

Sentiment had been bolstered prior to the Fed’s announcement by a stronger-than-anticipated reading of second-quarter U.S. economic activity, thanks largely to a slide in imports. However, final sales to private domestic purchasers, a metric which economists and policymakers alike view as a gauge of underlying economic growth, rose by 1.2% -- the slowest uptick in domestic demand since the fourth quarter of 2022.

Still, a separate measure of private payrolls came in ahead of expectations, suggesting some resilience in the jobs market. More labor data is due out this week, including the all-important nonfarm payrolls report for July on Friday.

Solid returns from a selection of consumer-facing companies also helped to underline the relative strength of the American consumer.

2. U.S.-South Korea trade deal

The U.S. and South Korea have agreed to a trade deal that will see Washington slap a 15% tariff on imports from the country, lower than a previously-threatened rate of 25%, according to President Trump.

It is the latest in a string of trade pacts issued by the White House in recent days and comes shortly before a self-imposed August 1 deadline for the implementation of heightened "reciprocal" levies.

Trump made the announcement following a meeting with officials from South Korea, a major trading partner with the U.S. that exports key goods like semiconductor technology and cars.

Seoul also pledged to invest $350 billion in specific U.S. projects selected by Trump and purchase another $100 billion in energy items, Trump said, echoing a prior pact made with the European Union last weekend.

Yet, as it has been with many recent trade agreements, many of the details of the deal with South Korea remain unclear -- specifically the structure of Seoul’s financing, when the funds would be delivered and how much of the terms are binding in nature.

In a note, analysts at Capital Economics added that there are also questions around the treatment of electronics and pharmaceuticals exports from South Korea once sector-specific tariffs are unveiled.

3. Fed decision

The Fed kept its key policy rate steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with widely-held expectations, with the central bank citing a "low" unemployment rate, "solid" labor market conditions and "somewhat elevated" inflation.

Wednesday’s decision came as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been facing intensifying pressure from Trump to sharply and quickly ratchet down borrowing costs to help boost economic activity.

Even with Trump frequently criticising his leadership and hinting at dismissing him before the end of his tenure next year, Powell has been broadly consistent in his backing of a more cautious, wait-and-see approach to policy actions, due partly to uncertainty around the murky implications of Trump’s aggressive tariff actions.

Powell did not seem to stray too far from this stance in his latest comments, noting that it was too soon to say if the Fed will cut rates at its next gathering in September. He added that policy is modestly restrictive and not reining in the wider economy.

Yet there was dissent within Fed rate-setters to Powell, with Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman -- both Trump appointees -- voting for a 25-basis point rate reduction this month. The officials pointed to worries over a slowing labor market as evidence for a cut.

Outside of the U.S., the Fed was not alone in its decision to leave rates unchanged in recent hours. The Bank of Canada stood pat on its policy rate on Wednesday, as did the Bank of Japan on Thursday.

4. Meta reports

Shares in Meta Platforms soared in extended hours trading after strength in the Facebook-owner’s crucial advertising business powered better-than-anticipated sales in the April-to-June period and raised hopes that the company’s artificial intelligence investments are beginning to bear fruit.

Sales jumped by 22% during the second quarter to $47.5 billion, while net income came in at $18.3 billion, both topping Wall Street projections. Analysts at Vital Knowledge said Meta’s top-line results were underpinned by an 11% uptick in ad impressions as well as a 9% increase in ad pricing.

For the current quarter, Meta anticipates that revenue will rise by 17% to 24% versus a year earlier, although it flagged that a difficult annual comparison could lead to slower sales growth in the fourth quarter.

Meta, who, like many of its Big Tech peers, has laid out plans to spend heavily on AI, kept its capital expenditures outlook largely unchanged at $66 billion to $72 billion, compared with $64 billion to $72 billion previously, and implied that 2026 capex will be around $100 billion. Analysts have estimated next year’s figure will stand at $80 billion.

A spike in depreciation and higher compensation could also contribute to "meaningful upward pressure" on 2026 operating expenses, Meta executives warned.

"Bottom line: the Meta report is extremely robust, and the only negative takeaway is the warning management issues about 2026 costs," the Vital Knowledge analysts said.

5. Microsoft earnings

AI played a major role in results from Microsoft as well, with the nascent technology supercharging performance at the software giant’s cloud computing division.

Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue at the unit, known as Azure, jumped by 39%, outpacing expectations and fueling group-wide sales of $76.4 billion.

On a net basis, profit came in at $27.2 billion, or $3.65 per diluted share -- also surpassing estimates.

Executives indicated that Microsoft expects to continue to shell out more and more cash on AI, as it looks to rapidly build up the data centers that undergird these models. CFO Amy Hood said Microsoft is forecasting capital spending of over $30 billion in its first quarter -- after having registered a 27% year-over-year rise in capex to $24.2 billion in the prior period.

Shares in Microsoft, which have already surged by more than 22% so far this year, were higher by over 8% in after-hours dealmaking.

Meta and Microsoft were the latest members of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" group of mega-cap tech stocks to report their quarterly earnings. Further results are due out after the closing bell on Thursday from iPhone-maker Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and e-commerce titan Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)

1. Futures tick up

U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Wednesday, as investors prepared for a pivotal wave of central bank decisions and major corporate earnings.

By 03:43 ET (07:43 GMT), the Dow futures contract were mostly unchanged, S&P 500 had gained 6 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had risen by 47 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages slipped on Tuesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite backing away from recent record highs.

Drugmaker Merck (NSE:PROR), health insurer UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) and jetmaker Boeing (NYSE:BA) were among some of the Dow components to fall after unveiling their latest quarterly results. United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) also tumbled by more than 10%. The package deliverer once again declined to lay out annual revenue and margin forecasts, exacerbating worries around the impact of often erratic U.S. trade policy on the group’s performance.

Meanwhile, Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) dropped on lower-than-anticipated annual guidance, while the consumer goods giant flagged that it will soon have to raise prices on some of its products to counterbalance the effect of tariffs. The levies also played a part in appliance maker Whirlpool’s (NYSE:WHR) move to slash its full-year outlook, sending shares down by over 13%.

2. No major breakthrough after U.S.-China trade talks

A fresh round of trade negotiations in Sweden between the U.S. and China failed to result in a major breakthrough following two days of talks.

But both sides described their discussions, which were aiming to help soothe possibly damaging tensions by seeking an extension to their ongoing 90-day trade truce, as constructive.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to indicate that the continuation would not be rejected, telling reporters after the meetings: "It’s just that we haven’t given the signoff." U.S. officials added that the move to extend the truce, which is due to expire on August 12, ultimately falls to President Trump. Should he decide not to pursue an extension, U.S. duties on China could snap back to triple-digit rates.

Trade talks have been a key focus of the Trump administration in recent days, most notably with the president notching a framework deal with the European Union on Sunday. On Tuesday, Trump said an agreement with India has yet to be finalized after Reuters reported that India is preparing to accept higher levies of 20% to 25% on its exports to the United States.

Still, pacts with a host of other countries have yet to be secured, and an August 1 deadline for Trump’s elevated "reciprocal" tariffs to come into effect is now mere days away.

3. Fed decision looms large

Much of the attention now turns to the Federal Reserve, which is widely tipped to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its latest two-day meeting on Wednesday.

Many Fed officials have recently indicated that a more cautious approach to future rate actions is warranted, citing a desire to see how Trump’s aggressive tariff policies impact the wider economy.

Fears have surrounded the possible implications of the levies, particularly their potential to drive up inflation and weigh on broader growth. Price gains have proven to be so far relatively tepid and activity has been resilient, although worries remain that business will be increasingly passing more costs on to consumers in the coming months.

Against this backdrop, the Fed has recently opted to keep borrowing costs steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. This stance -- and Chair Jerome Powell’s public defense of it -- has drawn the ire of Trump, who has called on the Fed to quickly ratchet down rates to help boost growth.

4. Data incoming

More data is inbound this week that could provide further insight into the state of the American economy.

On Wednesday, traders will have the chance to parse through the first reading of second-quarter gross domestic product. Economists anticipate that the world’s biggest economy will return to growth of 2.5% during the April to June period, following a contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter.

A monthly reading of private payrolls is also tipped to rise by 77,000 in July after sliding by 33,000 in the previous month. The numbers from ADP will serve as a precursor to the all-important nonfarm payrolls reading due out on Friday.

Traders have also been digesting figures which showed an uptick in consumer confidence this month, but a measure of U.S. job openings and hiring decreased, suggesting some slowing in the labor market.

5. Microsoft, Meta earnings ahead

A busy earnings docket will be highlighted on Wednesday by this week’s first batch of results from key members of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" group of mega-cap tech stocks.

Software titan Microsoft’s artificial intelligence plans will be under heavy scrutiny, particularly after partner OpenAI recently utilized cloud services offered by rivals like Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), CoreWeave, and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL). ChatGPT-maker OpenAI has powered growth in Microsoft’s Azure cloud unit, helping the wider company become one of the major winners of a boom in enthusiasm around the applications of AI.

The nascent technology will likely be at the forefront of analysts’ minds as they also consider returns from Facebook-owner Meta Platforms. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has targeted massive spending on AI as a pillar of its future strategy, with the firm aiming to spend roughly $55 billion on building new AI data centers in the last three quarters of the 2025 calendar year. How Meta and Zuckerberg plan to monetize these investments remains a key focus for investors.

Microsoft and Meta’s earnings after the bell are slated to be accompanied by returns from other names, including chip designer Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) and trading platform Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD).

U.S.-China trade talks

The deal was the latest in a flurry of pacts the White House has raced to secure before August 1, when heightened "reciprocal" tariffs on a host of countries are due to come into effect.

"In terms of big trade deals yet to be secured, the market will still be on the lookout for deals with Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, India) and perhaps anything new for Mexico and Canada, too," ING analysts said in a note.

With this in mind, the U.S. and China are expected to continue their latest round of trade talks in Sweden on Tuesday, with Beijing facing an August 12 deadline to reach a longer-lasting tariff agreement with Washington.

Both sides had previously agreed on preliminary trade pacts earlier this year which cooled an intensifying trade war marked by rapidly escalating tit-for-tat tariffs and the squeezing-off of crucial rare earth minerals exports.

Fed meeting starts

The Fed kicks off its two-day policy meeting later in the session. While rates are expected to stay at 4.25%–4.5% when the announcement is made on Wednesday, investors will watch closely for signals on a possible cut later this year.

Fed chair Jerome Powell has recommended a wait-and-see attitude as the policymakers await more clarity around the impact of the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff agenda, but there have been signs of dissent within the FOMC, with a couple of members recently calling for lower rates.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, saying it would help propel the U.S. economy. 

The Bank of Japan also holds a key meeting on Thursday, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged.

Tariffs and their inflation impact will be in focus Thursday with the release of June’s PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Investors will also watch key labor data this week, including JOLTS Job Openings later in the session, ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday, and the key July jobs report on Friday.

"Magnificent Seven" earnings due

Investors are also gearing up for the busiest week of the earnings season, with more than 150 companies in the S&P 500 due to post their quarterly results.

This includes “Magnificent Seven” members, Facebook-owner Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) on Wednesday, followed by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) on Thursday.

Prior to Tuesday’s opening bell on Wall Street, numbers are expected to be released from a host of firms, including drugmaker Merck (NYSE:MRK), healthcare giant Unitedhealth (NYSE:UNH) and jetmaker Boeing (NYSE:BA). Consumer goods titan Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), which announced the departure of CEO Jon Moeller on Monday, is also slated to report.

Visa (NYSE:V) will highlight the docket of returns after U.S. markets close. 

Crude rises once more

Oil prices rose Tuesday ahead of the start of the latest Fed meeting in the aftermath of the trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union.

At 05:55 ET, Brent futures gained 0.6% to $69.74 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded 0.7% higher to $67.19 a barrel.

Both contracts settled more than 2% higher in the previous session, with Brent touching its highest level since July 18, after the U.S./EU deal sidestepped a full-blown trade war between the two major allies that would have dimmed the outlook for fuel demand.

The agreement also calls for $750 billion of EU purchases of U.S. energy in the coming years.

1. U.S.-EU trade deal

The United States and European Union have reached a landmark trade agreement that includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., President Donald Trump announced Sunday while in Scotland.

The broad-strokes deal encompasses significant EU purchases of U.S. energy and military gear, along with substantial investments in the American economy.

According to Trump, the European Union has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of energy from the United States. He also stated that the EU has agreed to make $600 billion in investments in the U.S.

"They are agreeing to open up their countries to trade at zero tariff," Trump told reporters. He added that the EU would "purchase a vast amount of military equipment" from the U.S.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed the agreement would include 15% tariffs across the board, noting that this measure would help "rebalance" trade between the two major trading partners. Of the $3.3 trillion in goods imported by the U.S. last year, more than $600 billion came from the 27-member EU.

The pact could help bring some calm to investors, who had been wary that both sides could fail to reach a deal before August 1, when Trump’s sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs are due to come into effect. The EU had been facing heightened levies of 30%, and had reportedly been pushing for a zero-for-zero agreement with the White House. 

"[A]ny assessment has to be taken with more than only one pinch of salt. With this disclaimer in mind and at face value, [Sunday]’s agreement would clearly bring an end to the uncertainty of recent months," analysts at ING said in a note.

2. U.S. and China to extend trade truce - reports

The U.S. and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by an additional 90 days during trade talks starting Monday in Stockholm, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Sunday, citing sources close to the discussions.

The temporary suspension of most tariffs, agreed in May, is set to expire on August 12.

According to the SCMP report, both sides will use the third round of negotiations to outline their positions on unresolved issues, including U.S. concerns over China’s industrial overcapacity, rather than pursue immediate breakthroughs.

Sources told SCMP that during the extension, neither side plans to impose new tariffs or escalate the trade conflict. Beijing is also expected to seek clarity from Washington over the 20% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods in March related to fentanyl concerns, the report said.

Trump said Sunday the U.S. is “very close” to a deal with China, but did not elaborate. In an editorial on Sunday, China’s People’s Daily said Beijing remains committed to resolving disputes through equal dialogue and mutual respect.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that the U.S. has paused curbs on tech exports to China to avoid disrupting these talks.

3. Jam-packed earnings week

Markets are now gearing up for a week that the ING analysts have described as "massive" for the U.S. economy.

Along with a possible string of trade deals before August 1, the coming days will see a raft of corporate earnings, including returns from mega-cap tech titans like Facebook-owner Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

While tariffs will be hovering in the background of the earnings, investors will likely be keen for these firms to provide further details on their plans for artificial intelligence. The nascent technology has become a central pillar of the strategy of many tech groups, leading to a surge in expected capital expenditures in the coming months -- and, if Google-owner Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) expected capex raise last week is any indication, the appetite for AI spending is only growing. 

Outside of tech, other earnings this week are due out from financial services groups Visa (NYSE:V) and Mastercard (NYSE:MA), which analysts say could provide some insight into the health of the American consumer.

4. Fed decision ahead

July’s nonfarm payrolls report and a reading of inflation closely monitored by the Federal Reserve are also scheduled to be released this week, while the Fed itself will unveil its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Fed officials are widely anticipated to leave borrowing costs unchanged, even as President Donald Trump has placed intensifying pressure on the central bank -- and Chair Jerome Powell in particular -- to quickly lower rates.

Policymakers have recently signaled a "wait-and-see" approach to further rate decisions, partly citing uncertainty around the trajectory of Trump’s levies and their impact on the wider economy.

"The [rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee] [...] will probably sound the same as before, with resilient growth and uptick inflation risks keeping them on the sidelines, but there will likely be a dovish dissent (Waller), and Powell might acknowledge improved clarity on tariffs," analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.

5. Bank of Japan decision

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan is tipped to also keep short-term interest rates steady at 0.5% on Thursday, although a trade deal between Tokyo and the U.S. earlier this month could help brighten an otherwise murky economic outlook.

Although the agreement is likely to come as a source of relief for BOJ policymakers tasked with assessing the trajectory of Japan’s export-heavy economy, some doubts remain around the impact of U.S. levies on wider business activity.

Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida flagged last week that while the deal removes some uncertainty, there are still unanswered questions around the knock-on effects of other potential pacts the U.S. notches with its trading partners.

Factoring in these concerns, markets are seen paying particularly close attention to the BOJ’s quarterly outlook report and post-meeting comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda.

1. Trade agreements still in focus

Trade negotiations remain in the spotlight at the end of a week that has seen the U.S. sign new deals with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, adding to previously announced agreements with the U.K. and China.

A European Commission spokesman said on Thursday that a deal between the European Union and the U.S. on trade tariffs is "within reach", ahead of the August 1 deadline when U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a sweeping 30% levy on EU imports.

Such a deal is likely to result in a broad tariff of 15% applying to EU goods imported into the United States, Reuters reported, citing two diplomats.

Additionally, the U.S. is set to engage in fresh trade talks with China next week, with the Wall Street Journal reporting on Friday that President Donald Trump is seeking more economic concessions from Beijing.

The U.S. and China agreed in May and June to substantially lower their respective trade tariffs on each other, and signed a framework trade agreement. 

But both sides are now attempting to clinch a bigger deal, with the U.S. still maintaining tariffs of between 30% to 50% on Chinese goods. 

2. U.S. futures gain on solid earnings 

U.S. stock futures edged higher Friday, with Wall Street on course of a winning week as investors celebrate a generally positive earnings season to date. 

At 03:10 ET (07:10 GMT), the S&P 500 futures traded 45 points, or 0.1%, higher Nasdaq 100 futures gained 10 points, or 0.1%, and Dow futures rose 20 points, or 0.1%.

The main Wall Street indices are all on course to finish the week with gains, with the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average set for an almost 1% advance on the week, as is the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite, while the S&P 500 has risen about 1.1% week to date.

Almost 83% of the 155 S&P 500 companies that have reported to date beat Wall Street’s expectations, helping both the latter two indices to fresh all-time intraday and closing highs on Thursday.

Recent trade deals between the U.S. and its trading partners have also helped push the market to new heights, and investors are now awaiting any further trade announcements before the Trump administration’s Aug. 1 tariff deadline.

There are more earnings to digest Friday, including from the likes of HCA Holdings (NYSE:HCA) and Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR), while there will also be durable goods orders for June to study, ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

3. Trump/Powell clash again, over costs

Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell clashed once again on Thursday, this time over the cost of renovations of the central bank’s Washington headquarters.

The U.S. president visited Washington on Thursday and focused on construction costs, pointing out that the renovation budget had increased from $2.7 billion to approximately $3.1 billion - a new figure that Powell disputed.

However, Trump seems to have moved away from firing Powell, at least for now, anyway.

"To do so is a big move and I just don’t think it’s necessary," Trump told reporters after his visit to the Fed’s headquarters, rowing back from recent attacks which have been seen as a threat to the Fed’s independence.

That said, the president still expressed his desire for lower interest rates multiple times during the brief press conference, the main reason behind his criticism of Powell as the Federal Reserve has paused its rate-cutting cycle amid uncertainty over the impact on inflation from the Trump administration’s trade policies. 

4. Intel slumps on weak guidance

Intel’s shares traded sharply lower premarket after the chipmaker said late Thursday that it expects steeper losses than Wall Street forecasts in the third quarter and announced plans to slash jobs.

The company plans to reduce headcount to 75,000 by the end of year, down 22% from the end of 2024, which will be through attrition and "other means".

Additionally, as part of an effort to improve capital efficiency, and cut down costs, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) said it has ditched plans to build projects in Germany and Poland. 

The company also said it would slow the pace of construction of its chip factory in Ohio "to ensure spending is aligned with market demand."

Investors seem to be concerned that the company appears more focused on cost cutting than restoring its technological edge in a very competitive sector. 

5. Crude gains on trade optimism

Oil prices rose Friday, adding to the previous session’s sharp gains, supported by hopes of more U.S. trade deals ahead of President Donald Trump’s nearing deadline.

At 03:10 ET, Brent futures climbed 0.9% to $69.78 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.9% to $66.61 a barrel.

Both contracts jumped more than 1% on Thursday after data showed a sharp decline in U.S. crude inventories.

The crude markets have gained support from the prospect of more trade deals between the United States and trading partners ahead of an August 1 deadline for new tariffs on goods from an array of countries.

The United States and Japan unveiled a trade deal on Wednesday, and confidence in growing that the European Union was also moving toward a deal [see above].

Easing trade tensions boosts economic activity and cross-border commerce, which in turn drives up oil demand through increased transportation and industrial energy use.

1. Futures mixed

U.S. stock futures hovered around both sides of the flatline on Thursday, as investors assessed a wave of corporate earnings and reports of more progress in global trade negotiations.

By 03:35 ET (07:35 GMT), the Dow futures contract had slipped by 152 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures were flat, and Nasdaq 100 futures had gained 51 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street jumped on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 logging its 12th record close of 2025 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finishing above the 21,000 mark for the first time. Equities were bolstered by a Financial Times report that the U.S. and European Union were making progress toward a trade agreement that would place a baseline 15% tariff on items incoming from the bloc.

The rumors, which were later confirmed by Bloomberg News, came after President Donald Trump announced a trade pact with Japan on Tuesday that also included a 15% levy on imports into the United States. Analysts said the developments have helped to ease longstanding concerns over uncertainty around Trump’s tariff agenda as an August 1 deadline for his elevated "reciprocal" tariffs to kick in inches closer.

With roughly a fourth of firms in the S&P 500 having now reported their latest quarterly earnings, the second-quarter reporting period has been widely robust -- 67% of these groups have topped analysts’ revenue estimates and 88% have surpassed earnings per share projections.

2. Alphabet revenue surges

Headlining the slate of results after the bell on Wednesday were Alphabet and Tesla -- the first of the so-called "Magnificent 7" mega-cap tech giants to open their books.

At Alphabet, second-quarter revenue soared by 14% versus a year earlier to a new all-time peak of $96.4 billion, boosted by strength at its all-important search and cloud division.

But the Google-parent’s returns were tempered by its massive spending on artificial intelligence, which executives have targeted as a crucial source of future growth. Google has been folding AI into its search business recently to fend off intensifying competition from startups like OpenAI and Perplexity.

AI also represents a major opportunity for Alphabet’s advertising segment, allowing the company to present firms with ad campaigns that can squeeze out more returns. Total ad sales came in at $71.3 billion for the quarter, up 10.4% year-on-year, while its core search business expanded by 11.7%.

Google’s cloud unit, which offers computing power to data centers, posted a 32% increase in sales to $13.6 billion.

Still, as it has been for many of its tech rivals, investors are keen to see how the company plans to monetize its heavy AI spending. Alphabet said capital expenditures this year would rise by 13% to around $85 billion. In 2024, the figure stood at $52.5 billion.

Shares of Alphabet rose by more than 2% in extended hours trading.

3. Musk warns of "rough quarters" ahead at Tesla

Automation remains a key focal point at Tesla as well, with the electric vehicle titan hoping that its plans for self-driving cars and robotics will help fuel new revenue sources that can offset fading automotive demand.

Headwinds from the impending expiration of a federal tax credit designed to incentivize EV sales are also looming. CEO Elon Musk, whose recent political connections with Trump have been a fresh source of controversy for Tesla, told analysts that the firm could see "a few rough quarters."

"I’m not saying we will, but we could -- you know, Q4, Q1, maybe Q2, but once you get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year, certainly by the end of next year, I think I’d be surprised if Tesla’s economics are not very compelling," Musk said.

He added in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that Tesla remains in the "early stages" of its autonomous driving ambitions.

Weighed down by a sizable decline in automotive deliveries, group-wide revenue dropped by 12% to $22.5 billion. Net income slid to $1.17 billion, compared with $1.4 billion a year earlier.

Tesla’s shares slumped by more than 4% in after-hours dealmaking.

4. U.S. PMIs due out

On the economic data front, markets will be keeping tabs on the publication of flash purchasing managers’ index figures on Thursday.

Economists anticipate that the preliminary manufacturing PMI reading from S&P Global for July will come in at 52.7, down slightly from 52.9 in the previous month. A gauge of services activity is tipped to edge up slightly to 53.0 from 52.9.

Numbers above the 50-point mark indicate expansion.

Despite uncertainty around the trajectory of Trump’s aggressive tariffs, the U.S. economy has shown broad signs of resilience.

The stock market has touched record highs, retail sales have topped forecasts, consumer sentiment has improved and a sharp spike in inflation -- much feared after Trump revealed his "reciprocal" tariffs in April -- has not yet come to pass. However, analysts have flagged that the impact of the tariffs could materialize in the months ahead.

5. ECB decision

The European Central Bank is due to unveil its next policy decision on July 24, with investors widely anticipating that it will leave key interest rates unchanged.

Analysts widely expect the ECB to keep its key deposit rate steady at 2%.

At its last meeting in June, policymakers, bolstered by signs of flagging inflation and tepid economic activity in the 20-member euro zone, slashed rates by 25 basis points. It was the eighth reduction in a year, although it came with an indication from the ECB that it would likely pause in July, largely due to uncertainty around trade tensions with the Washington.

"[T]he ECB’s next steps will be heavily influenced by developments in the tariff dispute and its impact on growth expectations," analysts at Erste Group said in a note.

On Wednesday, the Financial Times reported that, along with a 15% tariff on European imports, an EU-U.S. trade agreement would see both sides waive levies on some products, such as spirits, medical devices, and aircraft. But the EU remains ready to unleash a potential 93 billion euro package of retaliatory duties if a deal cannot be reached by August 1, the report said.

1. Futures muted

U.S. stock futures were subdued on Tuesday, as investors took a breath before a fresh round of corporate earnings.

By 03:31 ET (07:31 GMT), the Dow futures contract, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq 100 futures were all mostly unchanged.

The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both touched record levels in the prior session, partly fueled by optimism around recent company results.

Shares of Google-owned Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) climbed, in particular. The search giant is due to kick off earnings from the crucial “Magnificent Seven” group of mega-cap tech names on Wednesday, along with electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Elon Musk-led Tesla’s stock price inched down on Monday.

Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) shares, meanwhile, added around 4%, driven by the telecom company’s decision to raise the lower end of its annual profit growth guidance.

While earnings season has been shifting into higher gear (see below), markets have also been keeping tabs on developments around sweeping U.S. tariffs. An August 1 deadline for President Donald Trump’s elevated “reciprocal” levies to take effect is inching ever closer, with media reports suggesting that the White House has yet to make significant progress on trade negotiations with a host of nations.

How Corporate America plans to respond to potentially heightened duties remains a key feature of the second-quarter reporting period.

2. Earnings ahead

Traders will now be monitoring a series of company earnings reports due out on Tuesday.

Of note will be figures from home builders DR Horton (NYSE:DHI) and PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM), which could offer a glimpse into the state of U.S. real estate market. Home demand has been weighed down recently by higher mortgage rates and broad economic uncertainty — although possible Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year could bolster home buying activity, analysts have suggested.

General Motors (NYSE:GM) has already warned of a $4 billion to $5 billion annual earnings headwind from U.S. tariffs, but investors may be curious to hear more on the trade outlook from the carmaker.

Also highlighting the docket today will be results before the opening bell from soda titan Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and tobacco firm Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), as well as defense names like RTX  Corp. (NYSE:RTX) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT). Chipmaker Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) and medical devices company Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) will post returns after the markets close.

Following the end of trading on Monday, NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) unveiled a 6% fall in second-quarter revenue that stemmed from weakness at its communications and infrastructure segment. Shares dropped in extended hours trading.

3. OpenAI-SoftBank’s AI project ramp-up struggling, WSJ reports

A $500 billion mega-deal between OpenAI and Japanese tech investor SoftBank to rapidly build out the artificial intelligence ambitions of the U.S. has struggled to get off the ground, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Cuiting people familiar with the matter, the paper said that the project, known as "Stargate," has sharply scaled back its near-term plans. Roughly a half of a year after Stargate was announced by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, SoftBank’s billionaire leader Masayoshi Son and President Trump, it has yet to sign a single deal for a data center, the WSJ said.

SoftBank and OpenAI have been dealing with disagreements over the terms of the partnership, including differences in opinion over where to build data center facilities, the WSJ added.

Despite having promised to "immediately" plug $100 billion into the initiative in January, the project is now looking to roll out a more modest data center, likely in the U.S. state of Ohio, later this year, the WSJ said. However, Altman and Son have said that their joint effort is progressing well.

In a note, analysts at Vital Knowledge suggested that the report could be a "tailwind" for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), as it could imply that OpenAI may have to keep more workloads on its Azure cloud product for "longer than envisioned."

"But it does raise questions about some of the hype that’s formed around the industry, where huge investment figures are cavalierly thrown out and used as justification for ever-expanding valuations when a lot of the numbers are either recycled, double-counted, or vaporware," the Vital Knowledge analysts argued.

4. Freight rail industry deal talk

Berkshire Hathaway-owned BNSF has hired Goldman Sachs to consider the purchase of a rival freight rail company, according to Semafor.

The news outlet noted that it was not clear whether BNSF would pursue a tie-up with Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) or CSX Corp (NASDAQ:CSX).

Elsewhere, Jacksonville-based CSX is in talks to bring on financial advisers, Reuters reported.

These moves come after peer Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP), the biggest U.S. freight operator, reportedly began exploring a possible acquisition of Norfolk that would create a sprawling $200 billion rail network which would span the width of the continental U.S. It would be one of the most consequential deals in the sector since Canadian Pacific (NYSE:CP) fused with Kansas City Sourthern -- notably with Goldman’s help -- four years ago.

Analysts flagged that any potential deal may face scrutiny from U.S. regulators, raising questions around the appetite of the Trump administration for major transactions.

5. Gold edges down from one-month high

Gold prices fell slightly, pulling back slightly from an over one-month high hit in the prior session, due to some profit-taking and a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar.

The yellow metal’s safe haven appeal was recently boosted by reports that the European Union was preparing new countermeasures against the U.S. over Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Washington seen seeking at least 15% tariffs on the bloc, but Brussels is looking to keep the rate at its current level of 10%, reports said.

Uncertainty over U.S. interest rates and the independence of the Federal Reserve also boosted haven demand. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at meeting next week, despite growing calls from Trump that he cut borrowing costs immediately.

U.S. stock index futures moved higher on Monday as investors prepared for a string of key second-quarter earnings in the coming days, with some of Wall Street’s biggest firms set to report. 

S&P 500 futures had risen by 18 points, or 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 71 points, or 0.3%, and Dow Jones futures had climbed by 124 points, or 0.3%, by 05:24 ET (09:24 GMT).

Equities stalled near record highs on Friday as reports said President Donald Trump was pushing for a minimum 15% to 20% tariff on the European Union. Trump’s tariffs are set to take effect from August 1. 

Tesla, Alphabet to headline earnings this week

Tech titans Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) are set to highlight a large slate of earnings this week. 

The two, who will report on Wednesday, are part of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" group of mega-cap tech stocks and are likely to provide trading cues for the broader market.  

Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ), Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO), Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX), Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN), Chubb (NYSE:CB), Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), and General Motors (NYSE:GM) are set to report on Monday and Tuesday. 

A host of strong bank earnings helped keep investor spirits high last week, even as several major lenders warned of heightened economic uncertainty because of Trump’s trade tariffs. Much of the focus will now center around the impact of the levies on the operating outlook for the year.  

Wall Street hovers near record highs despite tariff uncertainty

Wall Street indexes lost some ground on Friday amid persistent concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs. A report said that Trump was still considering a 15% to 20% baseline levy on the European Union.

The EU, for its part, has reportedly been pushing for the current 10% baseline U.S. duty on imports from the bloc to remain in effect.

Trump has outlined steep "reciprocal" tariffs against several major economies, which are all set to take effect from August 1. While the White House has signaled that trade negotiations are ongoing, the U.S. has so far struck a substantially smaller number of trade deals than Trump had promised earlier this year. 

Concerns over the economic impact of higher tariffs kept investors on edge, and helped pull the main U.S. stock averages off record highs hit last week. 

Oil prices slip

Elsehwere, oil prices inched down, swayed by concerns over the impact of trade tensions on demand and the effect of European sanctions on Russian crude supplies.

Brent crude futures had dipped by 0.6% to $68.89 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 0.5% to $65.74 a barrel by 05:25 ET.

Last week, the EU approved a fresh set of measures against Russia over the longstanding conflict in Ukraine. The latest package particularly targeted India’s Nayara Energy, which exports oil products refined from Russian crude.

Analysts at ING flagged that the market had a muted reaction to the sanctions, arguing that traders are "not convinced" by their effectiveness.

But they said: "The part of the package likely to have the biggest market impact is the EU imposing an import ban on refined oil products processed from Russian oil in third countries."

U.S. stock futures rise, with investors keeping a close eye on incoming earnings and economic data. Netflix’s (NASDAQ:NFLX) earnings top estimates, but shares in the streaming giant slip as analysts flag that its results may not have lived up to sky-high expectations. Elsewhere, a closely-watched consumer sentiment report is due out, while Bitcoin gains after U.S. House lawmakers pass three bills aimed at establishing a clear legal framework for digital assets.

1. Futures higher

U.S. stock futures ticked higher on Friday, suggesting an extension to gains posted in the prior session that were fueled by investor optimism around upbeat second-quarter earnings and signs of resilient growth conditions despite lingering tariff uncertainty.

By 03:51 ET (07:51 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 64 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had climbed by 8 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had ticked up by 27 points, or 0.1%.

The main averages on Wall Street advanced on Thursday, with investors taking their cues from a series of favorable corporate results, as well as executive commentary that analysts have described as encouraging. Economic data this week has also indicated that U.S. economy is picking up some steam, even as inflationary pressures from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade agenda appear to be mounting.

Economists have warned that levies could drive up prices and weigh on economic activity, although some doubts remain over the potential extent of the impact of the tariffs.

"[O]ur base case remains that the tariffs ultimately imposed will not cause a recession -- though we expect growth to slow," analysts at Capital Economics said in a note.

2. Netflix earnings

Shares in Netflix inched lower in extended hours trading after the streaming giant’s second-quarter earnings and outlook were solid, but failed to live up to heightened analyst expectations.

Fueled in large part by the success of the final season of its mega-hit series "Squid Game," Netflix posted quarterly diluted per-share profit of $7.19, above estimates of $7.08, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.

Netflix, which has been pushing to fold in new offerings like live events to bolster viewership and draw in advertisers, also lifted its annual revenue guidance to a range of $44.8 billion to $45.2 billion -- up from $44.5 billion previously.

The company noted that the improved forecast was partly underpinned by a recent weakening in the U.S. dollar, which analysts at Vital Knowledge argued was a "low-quality source."

Investing.com analyst Thomas Monteiro also said the outlook "now feels quite conservative," adding that this is "problematic for a stock priced for perfection." Netflix’s stock price has surged by more than 43% so far this year, undergirded by hopes that the firm will continue to strengthen its position as one of the most dominant players in the streaming sector.

3. Michigan sentiment report ahead

On the economic calendar, investors will likely be keeping tabs on the release of a monthly tracker of consumer sentiment.

The gauge from the University of Michigan is tipped to have inched up in July, with inflation expectations holding roughly steady.

"We’ll see whether 1-year inflation expectations have continued to drop: they are currently at 5%, though opinions diverge sharply between Democrat (very high) and Republican (very low) responders," analysts at ING said in a note.

Friday’s release will come after separate reports this week painted a picture of an American economy that seems to be on solid footing, at least for the moment.

On Thursday, retail sales figures were stronger than anticipated and weekly jobless claims came in below forecasts. Inflation also stayed just about in line with expectations in June, although tariffs seem to be pushing the prices of some goods higher.

4. Fed’s Waller on rates

With this economic backdrop in mind, the Federal Reserve has largely adopted a "wait-and-see" attitude to future interest rate decisions.

However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that a rate cut as soon as the central bank’s next meeting this month is justified, citing rising risks to the economy.

He added that the tariff-induced uptick in inflation will likely not be a persistent feature of the economy, but rather a more temporary bump.

"It makes sense to cut" the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the Fed’s July 29-30 gathering, Waller said at an event.

The comments come as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has faced intensifying pressure from Trump to quickly slash borrowing costs to help bolster the economy. Powell, who has stressed the Fed’s independence from the White House, has defended a more cautious approach that will allow policymakers to assess the wider effects of Trump’s tariffs.

5. Bitcoin higher after U.S. House passes key crypto bills

Bitcoin temporarily rose above $120,000 in Asian trade on Friday, heading for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, as the U.S. House of Representatives cleared three bills aimed at creating a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency last traded 1.1% higher at $119,583.3 as of 03:52 ET.

The token had surged to record highs above $123,000 at the start of the week. But profit taking at record levels and concerns around the final passage of crypto bills tempered gains.

One of the bills, known as the the "GENIUS Act," sailed through the House with a bipartisan 308-122 vote. It requires stablecoin issuers to hold high‑quality, dollar‑equivalent reserves and undergo regular audits, while establishing both federal and state supervision

Two additional bills also passed the House. The CLARITY Act aims to define whether digital tokens fall under the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency without explicit approval from Congress.