Gold prices sank to a three-week low on Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar firmed and oil prices climbed with investors eyeing a crush of central bank interest rate decisions this week.

By 05:41 ET (09:41 GMT), spot gold had dropped by 1.5% to $4,610.31 an ounce and gold futures had declined by 1.5% to $4,624.06 an ounce.

A tracker of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currency peers strengthened, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. The greenback has been floating just above pre-war levels, as traders view it as a relative safe-haven amid geopolitical strife and suggest that the U.S.’s status a major energy exporter will help insulate it from war-linked energy shocks.

Also weighing on the yellow metal was a fresh increase in oil prices following media reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was unhappy with Iran’s latest proposal to end their two-month war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran proposed delaying negotiations over its nuclear program, although Trump has stated that eradicating these ambitions were a central reason for starting his joint campaign with Israel in late February.

The impasse means that, for the moment, the Strait of Hormuz will remain all but shuttered to shipping traffic, further placing upward pressure on oil prices. Roughly a fifth of the world’s crude flows through the narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast.

Worries have abounded that the jump in oil prices will, in turn, fuel a surge in inflation that could cause central banks to consider interest rate hikes. This may not bode well for bullion, which tends to perform poorly in low-rate environments.

Central bank decisions in focus

A bevy of central banks are unveiling new rate announcements this week, possibly offering insight into how the oil price spike could impact borrowing costs in countries around the world.

The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, but warned of cooling economic growth and rising inflation due to the impact of the war in the Middle East.

As widely anticipated, the BOJ left its short-term policy rate at 0.75%.

However, the decision was not unanimous, with three of the bank’s nine-member rate-setting board arguing for higher interest rates due to rising inflationary risks. It was the biggest number of dissents since January 2016, when the BOJ adopted negative interest rates.

The central bank flagged that “[g]iven that underlying inflation has been approaching 2% and real interest rates are at significantly low levels," it will "continue to raise its policy rate in response to developments in the economy, prices and financial conditions.”

In a note, analysts at Capital Economics said: "While the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged today, its Outlook report was hawkish and we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will hike rates in June." 

Later this week, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and Bank of England will announce new rate decisions.

Oil prices rose on Monday, as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran appeared to be stalled, leaving constraints on crude supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz in place.

Brent oil futures, the global benchmark, rose 2.5% to $107.92 a barrel by 05:55 ET (09:55 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2.1% to $96.38 a barrel.

However, investors were keeping tabs on media reports that Iran has offered the U.S. a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. The offer, which was first reported by Axios, also proposes postponing discussions over Iran nuclear program to a later date. 

This point that is likely to draw objections from Washington, which has made Iran handing over its uranium and ceasing all nuclear activities major demands. Tehran has largely rejected these, although the status of Iran’s nuclear program, after debilitating U.S. strikes in mid-2025, remains uncertain. 

The U.S. has repeatedly called for a reopening of Strait of Hormuz before any major peace talks can take place. Iran has in turn called for the lifting of a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.

U.S.-Iran talks fall through, Hormuz disruptions remain

U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled a planned trip by U.S. officials to Pakistan for talks on Iran over the weekend, shortly after Iranian officials left Islamabad.  The two sides have remained at odds, even after Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran earlier in April. 

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping channel for energy markets, showed few signs of improving over the weekend. Adding to concerns over tighter oil supplies, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. did not plan to renew a waiver allowing the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil currently at sea. 

Washington had briefly allowed the purchases to offset some supply disruptions stemming from the Iran war. 

Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz since late-February in response to joint U.S.-Israeli attacks, threatening to cut off roughly 20% of the world’s crude supply. 

The U.S. dollar was on pace for its first weekly gain in three weeks on Friday, as a standoff between the U.S. and Iran maintained safe-haven demand for the currency.

By 05:49 ET (09:49 GMT), the U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of rival currencies, was broadly unchanged at 98.80. The euro was also flat against the dollar at $1.1686, while the British pound had edged up by 0.1% to $1.3483.

Investors have been coming to the U.S. dollar as a relative bastion, attracted in part by the U.S.’s status as a major energy exporter, which could help insulate the country from an energy shock caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Markets feared that a swift resolution to the Iran conflict appeared unlikely. While the U.S. did indefinitely extend a ceasefire with Iran this week, Tehran continued to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington has seized vessels attempting to run its naval blockade in the region.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was in no rush to end the war, even as Israel and Lebanon agreed to prolong their ceasefire by three weeks. 

Meanwhile, most Asian currencies weakened. The Japanese yen, in particular, fell. New data showed consumer inflation in Japan picked up more than expected in March, but markets remained convinced that the Bank of Japan is not likely to raise interest rates at a meeting next Tuesday. 

Uncertainty surrounded the future of potential peace talks between the U.S. and Iran on Thursday, as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persisted despite President Donald Trump’s announcement of an extended ceasefire earlier this week.

Tehran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, seizing two of them. Iranian officials said the move was in response to an American blockade of the country’s ports, as well as the recent seizure of an Iranian-flagged ship.

A day earlier, Trump announced in a social media post that a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran had been extended just hours before it was due to expire. He said the extension came at the request of Pakistan, which has served as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, adding that the truce would be in effect "until such time as" Iranian officials present a "unified proposal" for peace.

However, leaders from both sides have indicated that they stand ready to resume hostilities.

Mediators from Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt were racing to salvage peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, including arranging a potential meeting as soon as Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing officials familiar with the matter.

The U.S. and Iran were exchanging messages via third parties, although little progress has been made, the WSJ said.

Speaking to Fox News on Wednesday, Trump suggested that there was "no time pressure" on staging a fresh round of talks or on the ceasefire. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also said Trump does not view Iran’s ship seizures as a violation of the pause in fighting.

A trip to Pakistan by U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who led a prior American delegation in talks with Tehran, has been put on hold. According to the Associated Press, Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi hoped for "positive progress" with Iran after meeting with U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Natalie Baker.

Yet Tehran has stressed that it will not participate in any negotiations as long as the American blockade is in effect, the WSJ reported.

Oil back above $100

With signs pointing to persistent oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil, crude prices once again topped $100 a barrel. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were last higher by 1.8% at $103.70 a barrel.

Although oil prices have eased back from an initial spike after the start of the war in late February, they are still well above pre-conflict levels. Worries have abounded that the energy shock could trigger a spike in inflationary pressures and a slowdown in global growth.

Military planners from over 30 countries are due to continue a meeting in London later today aimed at finding a way to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, where the threat of attacks has caused tanker traffic through the narrow chokepoint to all but stop.

Despite uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership transition, UBS believes the U.S. central bank remains on track to cut interest rates later this year, with cooling inflation and labor market softness clearing the path for further easing.

Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires next month, appeared before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, reaffirming his commitment to monetary policy independence. 

Warsh pushed back on suggestions he would act as a proxy for the White House, and called for a "regime change" in the Fed's approach, including a new inflation framework and more internal debate. He also indicated he may not continue holding a press conference after every FOMC meeting, saying "truth-seeking is more important than repetition."

On inflation, UBS notes that March price data showed underlying inflation was milder than markets had expected. The firm's view is that "cooling sequential core inflation in the coming months amid fading tariff effects should open the door to further rate cuts by the US central bank."

Labor market conditions add to the case for easing. UBS points to lower average weekly hours and decelerating wage growth as signs of demand-side weakness, warning that a further fall in labor demand could push the unemployment rate sharply higher.

“With the composition of the Fed board likely to become more dovish later this year, and a large majority of policymakers still favoring returning the policy rate closer to 3%, we believe the current market pricing of Fed policy is too hawkish,” UBS stated.

The firm maintains its call for an additional 50 basis points of cuts toward year-end, adding that "further easing should support equities and high-quality bonds over the medium term."

Gold prices dropped on Tuesday, weighed down by a firmer U.S. dollar, as investors assessed uncertainty around Middle East peace talks and awaited a key Congressional confirmation hearing with Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh.

By 06:15 ET (10:15 GMT), spot gold had slid by 0.8% to $4,782.74 an ounce, while gold futures had fallen by 0.6% to $4,802.49 an ounce.

Denting the appeal of gold was a strengthening in the dollar, which can make bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. A tracker of the greenback against a basket of currency peers was last higher by 0.2%, as cautious traders flocked to the dollar, which some have argued presents a safe-haven thanks partially to the belief that heavy U.S. energy exports will help insulate the country from Iran-linked oil shocks.

Also weighing on the yellow metal were oil prices, which are hovering well above pre-war levels due in large part to a weekslong closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil. The effective shuttering of the waterway was reinstated over the weekend, despite having been temporarily reopened to commercial shipping traffic on Friday.

The jump in oil prices has fueled fears that a bout of inflationary pressures could hit countries around the world, potentially leading central banks to hike interest rates. This could bode poorly for non-yielding assets like gold, which tend to underperform in elevated rate environments.

U.S.-Iran peace talks in question

Uncertainty surrounded the prospect of fresh peace talks between the U.S. and Iran on Tuesday, with both sides presenting conflicting signals ahead of the fast-approaching expiration of a temporary ceasefire deal.

The pause to the fighting is set to run out later this week, although the exact timing of the deadline remained unspecified. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the two-week ceasefire on April 7 at 6:32 p.m. ET (22:32 GMT).

Citing a Pakistani source, Reuters reported that the halt to hostilities would end at 8 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, or midnight GMT on Thursday.

With the clock ticking down, Pakistan, which has served as a frequent mediator between Washington and Tehran, has been moving to clear the path for renewed talks to resolve a conflict which began with joint U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran in late February.

Warsh set for Senate confirmation hearing 

Beyond the Iran war, investors are eyeing the confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to become the next Fed Chair. The Fed’s independence from Trump – who has constantly demanded lower interest rates – will be of particular interest for Wall Street.

Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT).

His nomination has been viewed as less dovish than markets were expecting. While Warsh has expressed support for Trump’s demands for lower rates, he has in the past criticized the Fed’s asset buying activities, and has called for a leaner balance sheet.

Gold and other precious metals plummeted from record highs following Warsh’s nomination in late-January. In prepared remarks for the hearing cited by media reports, Warsh emphasized the Fed’s independence from political influence, but also noted that the bank should remain focused on its primary goals.

His confirmation as Fed Chair is likely to be delayed even as incumbent Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Several top lawmakers have called for Powell to stay on until the Trump administration drops an investigation into Powell and the Fed over allegations of corruption in a renovation project. The probe was widely criticized as an attempt to coerce the central bank. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that negotiations between Washington and Tehran may resume this weekend, as a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon seemed to be holding on Friday.

Washington and Tehran are “very close” to reaching a deal, Trump said, adding that Iran has agreed not to possess a nuclear weapon for more than 20 years. A desire to quell Iran’s nuclear ambitions has been cited Trump as a central reason for the war, which began with joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.

In return, Iran has called for the removal of international sanctions.

Trump flagged that he would consider extending the ceasefire if Washington was close to an agreement with Tehran.

Crucially, a new 10-day halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon could remove another key sticking point in negotiations. Despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Israel has continued to carry out strikes on Iran-aligned Hezbollah militants in neighboring Lebanon. Iran has demanded that such attacks must stop before an accord with the U.S. can be secured.

Both Israel and Lebanon officials have confirmed the truce, which began at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, although Hezbollah did not say whether it would accept it and would instead base its actions on “how developments unfold.” Israel and Hezbollah exchanged strikes in the hours leading up to the start of the pause to fighting, statements from each military said.

Still, Trump has reiterated his belief that the Iran war should end soon. According to Reuters, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have been scaling back their hopes for a comprehensive deal and are rather looking to forge a temporary memorandum that would prevent fighting from flaring up once again.

Oil hovers below $100

Oil prices sat below $100 a barrel, with traders keeping tabs on hopes for a long-term peace accord.

Following the outbreak of the war, crude briefly surged to as high as $120 a barrel, compared to pre-conflict levels of around $70 a barrel.

Underpinning much of the surge has been the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off of Iran’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil squeezes. Analysts at ING have estimated that around 13 million barrels per day of oil have been disrupted by the shuttering of the strait.

The uptick has in turn sparked fears around a spike in inflation in countries around the world that could dampen global economic growth. There has been subsequent debate around the cascading impact of these trends on everything from central bank interest rate policy to gold and currencies.

Both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned of softer demand in the coming months, while a trickle of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and an ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports may hit supplies.

"Control of the strait remains the main flashpoint,” OCBC analysts said, warning that U.S.-Iran negotiations could take as much as six months.

France and Britain are set to chair a meeting on Friday of roughly 40 countries which aims to signal to the U.S. that they are willing to play a part in unblocking the strait. Trump has frequently criticized other nations, including U.S. allies, for not immediately helping Washington’s efforts to reopen navigation through the chokepoint.

Meanwhile, a U.S. blockade of Iran that began earlier this week has intensified. U.S. military officials have stressed that the restrictions apply to Iran’s ports and coastline, not the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold prices crept higher on Thursday as persistent weakness in the dollar benefited metal markets, with focus remaining on more potential ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran.

The gold metal remained close to a near one-month high notched on Wednesday, as hopes for a prolonged de-escalation in the Iran war boosted risk appetite and cooled some inflation concerns.

Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,808.42 an ounce, while gold futures added 0.1% to $4,828.71/oz by 06:14 ET (10:14 GMT). 

Other precious metals also advanced. Spot silver ticked up 0.6% to $79.4055/oz and spot platinum rose 1.2% to $2,138.32/oz. 

Iran ceasefire extension hopes 

Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle to hold fresh talks, after an initial round of negotiations last weekend in Pakistan did not yield an immediate deal, according to the Wall Street Journal. Citing officials familiar with the matter, the paper said both sides have not set a time or venue for the meeting.

A fragile ceasefire between the two is due to expire on April 21. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has also said talks between Israel and Lebanon will take place later today, but did not offer further details. Israel has said the discussions will take place, although the Associated Press reported that Lebanon was unaware of the talks.

Still, signs of friction in the Middle East remained, most notably over an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. A top military commander in Iran has warned Washington not to continue the blockade, which U.S. Central Command has claimed has not been evaded by any Iranian-linked commercial ships and oil tankers.

Against this backdrop, oil prices have stabilized below $100 a barrel, but remain well above pre-war levels. A surge in crude to roughly $120 a barrel after the outbreak of the war in late February fueled concerns over a possible spike in inflationary pressures in countries around the world.

Bets that central banks, including the Federal Reserve in the U.S., could respond by hiking interest rates in turn grew, denting the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. However, optimism around peace negotiations have helped to moderate these wagers in recent days.

Spot gold has subsequently edged up by 0.9% over the past one-week period.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar, which was viewed throughout March as an investment bastion thanks to perceptions that the U.S. -- a major energy exporter -- was insulated from oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has softened. This could make dollar-denominated gold more enticing for overseas buyers. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the U.S. war with Iran may be coming to a conclusion soon, even as the American military says an ongoing naval blockade has restricted shipping traffic in and out of Iran.

Speaking to Sky News in the U.K., Trump said it was "very possible" that a permanent ceasefire agreement with Iran could be reached prior to the visit of King Charles later this month. He added that Iran has been "beaten up pretty bad."

Earlier, Trump told Maria Bartiromo of Fox News that the conflict, which began with joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, is "close to over."

The New York Post also reported that Trump expects temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks to resume in the next two days, following a first round talks in Pakistan last weekend. 

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the fighting is nearing an end and that the U.S. had achieved its objectives in Iran, including hampering Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and limiting its military capabilities. Iran has largely denied these claims. 

The U.S. and Iran agreed to a tenuous two-week ceasefire until April 21. Hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East were furthered by Israel and Lebanon holding their first direct talks in decades this week in Washington. Israel has continued to carry out strikes against Iran-aligned Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, threatening to upend the halt to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. Israel has disputed Iranian claims that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire deal. 

Citing regional officials, the Associated Press reported mediators’ efforts to extend the ceasefire have made progress and both sides are now anticipated to return to the negotiating table. The news agency said mediators were working on a compromise to three of the main sticking points in the talks, such as Iran’s nuclear program, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for the war.

U.S. fully implements blockade, military says

Meanwhile, the U.S. has fully implemented a blockade of Iran’s ports and ships, the military’s Central Command division said in a statement on Tuesday. The move comes after Trump ordered the blockade against Iran following the weekend talks, reportedly the aim of further pressuring Tehran into a ceasefire deal.

"A blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented [...] U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea," Central Command said in a social media post. 

The U.S. blockade, however, could complicate ceasefire negotiations, and could also herald more shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 

The blockade threatened to add to concerns over oil supply flows through the Persian Gulf, which have slowed to a trickle during the war. But the Wall Street Journal has reported that over 20 commercial vessels have managed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz recently, signaling a possible improvement in movement through the vital waterway off of Iran’s southern coast.

The Pentagon is also sending roughly 10,000 additional troops and major naval assets to the Middle East, according to a report from The Washington Post. The deployment includes about 6,000 troops aboard the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group and roughly 4,200 personnel with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. The added forces are expected to bolster an existing U.S. military presence of about 50,000 personnel in the region.

Oil prices hovered below $100 a barrel, although they remain well above pre-war levels. At 03:16 ET, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark had moved up by 0.3% to $95.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures had declined by 0.2% to $91.12 a barrel.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, buoyed by a softer U.S. dollar, as markets gauged hopes for a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

Spot gold edged up 0.7% to $4,773.34 an ounce by 05:49 ET (09:49 GMT), while gold futures added 0.7% to $4,800.12/oz. Bullion was supported by weakness in the dollar, with markets looking to some de-escalation in the Iran war despite an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Softness in the greenback can make gold more attractive to overseas buyers, possibly boosting demand.  

While gold is typically viewed as a bulwark against geopolitical strife, investors have broadly looked to the dollar for safety during the Middle East conflict. The U.S. is viewed as a net energy exporter, which could help insulate the American economy from disruptions to oil flows from the Persian Gulf. Signs of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, as a result, have recently weighed on the dollar and bolstered gold. 

Washington and Tehran have continued to engaged with one another and there has been some forward motion toward a permanent ceasefire deal, Reuters reported.

U.S. President Donald Trump has also noted that the White House had been contacted by Iranian officials who would like to "make a deal," adding that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. Washington has reportedly demanded that Iran agree not to enrich uranium, a key part of the process of building a nuclear weapon, for 20 years.

Meanwhile, Pakistan, which has emerged as a key mediator between the U.S. and Iran, has offered to host a second round of discussions prior to the end of the ongoing two-week ceasefire, according to reports. The first talks were held in Islamabad last weekend.

Elsewhere, Israel and Lebanon are due to begin direct peace talks in Washington on Tuesday. Air attacks by Israel on targets in Iran-aligned Hezbollah targets in Lebanon have been a key sticking point threatening the fragile halt to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will take part in the discussions between Israel and Lebanon, the WSJ said, quoting a State Department official.

Oil prices dipped back below $100 a barrel amid optimism for a possible deal to end the fighting in the Middle East. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, were last down by 0.9% to $98.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined by 2.0% to $97.07 a barrel. 

But crude prices remain well above pre-war levels. The energy shock has fueled concerns over a spike in inflationary pressures in countries around the world, denting expectations for central bank interest rate reductions. Gold tends to underperform in elevated rate environments.  

Traders will have the chance to parse through U.S. producer price index data later today. The numbers will be closely watched for signs of an energy-fueled inflation bump in March, especially after data last week showed that consumer price growth accelerated sharply.