Investing.com-- Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Tuesday, coming close to record highs as the run-up to the 2024 presidential election and uncertainty before upcoming data prints kept safe haven demand in play.
The yellow metal recouped all of its losses from the prior session, as easing fears of the Middle East conflict saw gold slip from recent peaks.
But safe haven demand remained bolstered by expectations of a tight U.S. presidential race, while upcoming economic prints are also likely to factor into the outlook for interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,753.60 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in December rose 0.4% to $2,765.50 an ounce by 00:39 ET (04:39 GMT).
Gold buoyed by election, rate jitters
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are set for a hotly-contested election, with voting set for November 5.
Recent polls and prediction markets showed Trump gaining some ground over Harris, although analysts still forecast a tighter race.
Uncertainty over the outcome, which will determine U.S. politics for the next four years, kept traders largely biased towards safe havens such as the dollar and gold.
Haven demand was also buoyed by anticipation of a string of key economic readings this week, which are likely to factor into the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates.
Third-quarter gross domestic product data is due on Thursday. PCE price index data- the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge- and nonfarm payrolls data are due on Friday, with both prints coming just weeks before a Fed meeting.
Gold and precious metal prices had persevered even as recent data prints furthered bets that the Fed will cut rates at a slower pace in the coming months. The central bank is expected to trim rates by 25 basis points in November.
Other precious metals rose on Tuesday. Platinum futures rose 1% to $1,054.00 an ounce, while silver futures rose 0.2% to $34.070 an ounce.
Copper dips, China data awaited
Among industrial metals, copper prices retreated as investors awaited more economic cues from China, the world’s biggest importer of the red metal.
Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.5% to $9,510.0 a ton, while December copper futures fell 0.7% to $4.3362 a pound.
Copper was nursing steep losses through October as recent stimulus measures from Beijing failed to inspire confidence in an economic recovery.
Focus was now on purchasing managers index data from China, due on Thursday, for more cues on the economy.
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong's home prices dropped for the fifth consecutive month in September, official data showed on Tuesday, in a struggling property market that realtors expect to bottom out soon after an interest rate cut and the government's easing policies.
WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
Housing demand in Hong Kong, one of the world's most unaffordable cities, has lost steam since May after a short-lived bounce when all property purchase curbs were lifted in February. Realtors said much of the pent-up demand has been sated, while property developers launched new flats at steep discounts to boost sales.
The government this month also relaxed the down payment ratio to 30% for all properties, and allowed purchases of luxury homes worth more than HK$50 million ($6.43 million) to be included in its investment immigration scheme.
BY THE NUMBERS
Private home prices fell 1.7% in September from the month before.
Prices have dropped 7.5% since December.
They have tumbled 27.7% from their 2021 peak, staying at their lowest level since August 2016, hurt by higher mortgage rates, an outflow of professionals and a weak market outlook.
MARKET COMMENTS
"We may see residential prices bottoming out in the near term after five months of decline," CBRE Hong Kong Executive Director Eddie Kwok said.
Knight Frank Senior Director Martin Wong expects prices to drop around 8% for the full year, as interest rates start to fall.
UBS expects home prices may rise up to 5% in 2025, driven by increased demand from mainland China and declining mortgage rates. The former British colony scrapped the extra stamp duty for foreign buyers in February.
CONTEXT
Hong Kong's major banks including HSBC and Bank of China (Hong Kong) surprised the market in September by cutting their best lending rate in the city by 25 basis points, following the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
Hong Kong's currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar, but local banks make their own rate decisions depending on their funding costs.
($1 = 7.7708 Hong Kong dollars)
Investing.com-- Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Tuesday, recovering some ground after easing concerns over a worsening conflict in the Middle East sparked deep losses in the prior session.
Brent oil futures expiring in December rose 0.7% to $71.94 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.7% to $67.87 a barrel by 20:17 ET (00:17 GMT).
Both contracts slid more than 6% on Monday after an Israeli strike against Iran over the weekend mostly avoided Tehran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure.
The strike quashed fears of a dire escalation in the Middle East conflict, given that traders feared that any attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure would draw a severe response from Tehran.
This saw traders rapidly price down a risk premium from oil prices.
Middle East tensions remain in focus as Iran touts retaliation
Fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, due to a worsening conflict, had been a major driver of oil prices over the past month, especially after Iran attacked Israel at the beginning of October.
Israel’s weekend strike was in retaliation for the early-October attack.
Tehran was seen downplaying the impact of the strike, but still threatened retaliation against Israel over the attack, keeping some elements of Middle East risks still in play.
Israel also showed little intent in scaling back its offensive against Hamas and Hezbollah, keeping hopes of a potential Middle East ceasefire limited.
Oil markets brace for US elections, econ. data deluge
Sentiment towards oil was also on edge before the U.S. presidential elections, which are less than a week away. The dollar surged in the run-up to the elections, pressuring oil markets as traders braced for a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Recent polls and prediction markets showed Trump gaining some ground over Harris, with a Trump victory likely to herald inflationary policies in the coming months.
A change in U.S. administration also heralds a shift in the country’s policies towards the Middle East.
Before the election, focus is also on a slew of economic readings from major economies this week, which are expected to offer more cues on demand.
Purchasing managers index data from top oil importer China is due on Thursday, followed by gross domestic product data from the U.S. for the third quarter.
PCE price index data- the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge- is due on Friday, as is nonfarm payrolls data for October.
Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures steadied in evening deals on Monday following a positive session on Wall Street, with focus turning squarely to a barrage of major earnings and economic readings this week.
Wall Street was encouraged by hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East, after an attack by Israel against Iran was not as severe as markets were fearing. Positioning in technology stocks, before key earnings, also put the Nasdaq close to record highs.
S&P 500 Futures steadied at 5,860.75 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures were flat at 20,498.75 points by 19:05 ET (23:05 GMT). Dow Jones Futures were flat at 42,594.0 points.
Alphabet to kick off big tech earnings this week
Five of Wall Street’s “Magnificent Seven” are due to report earnings this week, with Google owner Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) set to report after the market close on Tuesday.
This will be followed by Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) on Wednesday, while Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) will report on Thursday.
This week’s earnings are set to act as a bellwether for the broader market, given the relative market capitalization of the five tech giants. Investors will be watching to see whether Wall Street’s biggest firms were able to generate strong returns on their sizeable investments in artificial intelligence over the past year.
Wall St steadies with econ. data, election in focus
Wall Street indexes clocked mild gains on Monday, remaining in sight of record highs, although market volatility is set to increase in the coming days with a swathe of key economic readings, and the 2024 presidential election on tap.
The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 5,823.52 points, while the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.3% to 18,568.05 points on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, rising nearly 0.7% to 42,387.57 points.
A swathe of key economic readings are due this week, with gross domestic product data for the third quarter due on Thursday.
This will be followed by PCE price index data- the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge- as well as nonfarm payrolls data- both due on Friday.
The readings come just weeks before a Fed meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by a smaller 25 basis points.
The U.S. presidential elections are also set to take place in the coming week, with voting set for November 5.
Republican nominee Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are set for a tight race, although recent polls and prediction markets showed Trump gaining some ground.
By David Shepardson, Michael Martina and Trevor Hunnicutt
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Biden administration said on Monday it is finalizing rules that will limit U.S. investments in artificial intelligence and other technology sectors in China that could threaten U.S. national security.
The rules, which were proposed in June by the U.S. Treasury, were directed by an executive order signed by President Joe Biden in August 2023 covering three key sectors: semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies and certain AI systems.
The new rules are effective Jan. 2 and will be overseen by Treasury's newly created Office of Global Transactions.
Treasury said the "narrow set of technologies is core to the next generation of military, cybersecurity, surveillance, and intelligence applications."
The rule covers technologies like "cutting-edge code-breaking computer systems or next-generation fighter jets," added Paul Rosen, a senior Treasury official.
He added that "U.S. investments, including the intangible benefits like managerial assistance and access to investment and talent networks that often accompany such capital flows, must not be used to help countries of concern develop their military, intelligence, and cyber capabilities."
The rule is part of a broader push to prevent U.S. know-how from helping the Chinese to develop sophisticated technology and dominate global markets.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said earlier this year the rules were crucial to prevent China's developing military-related technologies.
The new rules contain a carve out allowing U.S. investment in publicly traded securities, but the officials said the U.S. already has authorities under previous executive order barring buying and selling of securities of certain designated Chinese companies.
The House select committee on China has criticized major American index providers for directing billions of dollars from U.S. investors into stocks of Chinese companies that the U.S. believes are facilitating the development of China’s military.
By David Lawder and Karin Strohecker
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Low growth, high debt and escalating wars topped the official agenda at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings, but finance leaders spent much of their energy worrying about the potential impacts of a return of Donald Trump to power in November's U.S. presidential election.
Republican candidate Trump's gains in recent polls to erase much of the early advantage of his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, was part of nearly every conversation among finance officials, central bankers and civil society groups attending the meetings in Washington this past week.
Among concerns were Trump's potential to upend the global finance system with massive tariff increases, trillions of dollars more in debt issuance and a reversal of work to fight climate change in favor of more fossil fuel energy production.
"Everyone seemed to worry about the high uncertainty on who would become the next president, and what policies would be taken under the new president," Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said.
Another central banker, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the concerns more bluntly: "It's starting to feel like Trump is going to win."
Trump has vowed to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, and 60% duties on imports from China. These would hit supply chains throughout the world, likely triggering retaliation and raising costs.
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner told Reuters on Friday that there would only be losers in a U.S.-EU trade war.
Trump has also sought to entice U.S. voters with offers of numerous tax breaks, from extension of all 2017 individual tax cuts to exempting income from tips, overtime pay and Social Security retirement benefits. Budget analysts say this would add at least another $7.5 trillion in new U.S. debt over a decade, on top of the $22 trillion in debt growth previously estimated by the Congressional Budget Office through 2034.
A Harris victory, by contrast, is being viewed by finance officials as a continuation of President Joe Biden's re-engagement in multilateral cooperation over the past four years on climate, corporate taxes, debt relief and development bank reforms. Her plans also are likely to increase debt, but far less than Trump's.
Biden kept in place Trump's previous tariffs on imports of steel, aluminum and Chinese goods - raising them steeply on Chinese imports in new industries such as electric vehicles and solar. Harris has endorsed this "targeted" approach and has slammed Trump's broad tariff plans as a $4,000 consumer tax on American families.
MARKETS BET ON TRUMP
Financial markets are seeing a return of "Trump trades" in assets from stocks to bitcoin to the Mexican peso that bet in favor of a Trump victory as his poll numbers have improved.
The dollar has staged its biggest monthly gain in over two-and-a-half years, with an index measuring the greenback against major currencies up 3.6% in October so far. Standard Chartered (OTC:SCBFF) analyst Steve Englander attributed 60% of the dollar's move upward to Trump's improved prospects in betting markets.
Brazil's central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto said that the pro-Trump market bets were already having an inflationary impact on long-term interest rate futures in the dollar-sensitive economy, adding that both Trump's and Harris' fiscal plans had inflationary elements.
The worries about a Trump about-face on trade and spending arose as the IMF declared that the global battle against inflation had largely been won without major job losses, as U.S. strength was offsetting weakness in China and Europe.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged policymakers to start shrinking a massive pile of COVID-induced debt or face a low-growth future that would leave populations increasingly dissatisfied.
Asked about how the specter of a Trump return impacted the meetings and IMF policy advice, Georgieva said the discussions had focused on solving the economic problems at hand.
"The sentiment of the membership is that elections are for the American people," Georgieva told a news conference. "What is for us to identify is what are the challenges and how the IMF can constructively address these challenges."
EMERGING STRAINS
The Federal Reserve's bumper half-point rate cut should normally signal a "Goldilocks" moment for emerging-market growth as financing conditions and inflationary currency pressures ease.
But bigger U.S. deficits under a Trump presidency already have some worried that the party could end quickly.
"A larger deficit means growing debt, growing debt means higher long-term rates and that may mean also a strong U.S. dollar," Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said during an event on the sidelines of the meeting.
"High long-term interest rates in the U.S. and a strong dollar don't serve emerging markets well," he said.
Concerns of a tit-for-tat global trade war stalling an easing of inflation pressures were rife.
"If one country imposes tariffs, it's assuming that the other countries will not respond in that manner - (but) if the other countries respond by imposing tariffs around the world and thus you have elevated prices, the disinflationary process could become challenging for the world's central banks," said Lesetja Kganyago, South Africa's central bank governor.
The chair of the IMF's steering committee, Saudi Arabian Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, emphasized past cooperation with Republican and Democratic U.S. administrations, including Trump's, saying "we just need to make sure that we continue that dialogue." That was a sentiment echoed by others at the meetings.
"I think we managed to deal with so many things, COVID and geopolitical tensions and everything," said Angolan Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa. "Every challenge is an opportunity for us to reorganize ourselves to learn to deal with it."
(Reporting and writing by David Lawder and Karin Strohecker; Additional reporting by Leika Kihara, Marcela Ayres and Maria Martinez; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The yen sank to a three-month low on Monday as investors figured the loss of a parliamentary majority for Japan's ruling coalition in weekend elections would slow future rate rises, while the dollar headed for a monthly gain on rising U.S. yields.
In the Asia session, the yen dropped 1% to 153.84 per dollar and by a similar margin against the euro to 165.87, on both counts its weakest since late July.
A period of wrangling to secure a coalition is now likely after the Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner Komeito won 215 lower house seats to fall short of the 233 majority.
Traders said the election would likely result in a government without the political capital to preside over rising rates and could usher in another era of revolving-door leadership.
Japan has already had four different prime ministers in a little over four years and instability was expected to breed caution at the central bank, which meets to set rates this week.
"It's one more thing for them to consider when they should be looking at the economy," said State Street (NYSE:STT)'s Tokyo branch manager Bart Wakabayashi. "Are we going to have another series of prime ministers every 10-12 months? That would not be good for the yen."
Analysts at BNY said the next immediate target for dollar/yen would be 155 with 160 a likely line in the sand that would draw intervention from the finance ministry.
DOLLAR GAINS
Elsewhere, the dollar was pushing higher and on course for its largest monthly rise in 2-1/2 years as signs of strength in the U.S. economy and bets on Donald Trump winning the presidency lifted U.S. yields.
Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures rose in evening deals on Sunday as Israel avoided striking Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities in a weekend attack, pointing to a less severe escalation in Middle Eastern tensions.
Focus this week was squarely on a barrage of mega-cap technology earnings, as well as several key economic indicators for more cues on corporate health and the economy.
Wall Street indexes were mixed over the past week, as traders piled into technology stocks over other economically sensitive sectors.
S&P 500 Futures rose 0.4% to 5,871.25 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.5% to 20,597.75 points by 19:14 ET (23:14 GMT). Dow Jones Futures rose 0.4% to 42,468.0 points.
Oil prices slide, risk appetite improves as M.East fears ease
Oil prices plummeted early Monday, while risk appetite improved after Israel launched a retaliatory strike against Iran over the weekend, but avoided hitting key nuclear and oil facilities.
Iran also signaled limited damage from the attack, drumming up hopes that a bigger conflict will not break out in the Middle East.
Still, Tehran said it would retaliate over the attack.
Nasdaq hits record high as mega-cap tech earnings approach
Wall Street indexes clocked a mixed close on Friday, with the Nasdaq hitting a record intraday high, while the S&P 500 and Dow both floundered below recent peaks.
Positioning in technology stocks ramped up before a string of key technology earnings this week, with five of Wall Street’s “Magnificent Seven” set to report in the coming days.
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) will report on Tuesday, while Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) will report on Wednesday.
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) are then set to report on Thursday.
The five firms make up a large chunk of market valuations on Wall Street, with their earnings likely to act as a bellwether for the broader market. This week's earnings are also expected to show whether the artificial intelligence trade remained in play, as major companies ramped up capital spending on the new technology.
The S&P 500 ended flat at 5,808.12 points on Friday, while the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.6% to 18,518.61 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.6% at 42,114.40 points.
Beyond the major earnings, focus this week is also on a string of key economic readings.
House price data, gross domestic product data for the third quarter, and PCE price index data- the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge- are due in the coming days.
The 2024 presidential election is also set to take place in a week.
Investing.com -- It’s set to be an action-packed week in markets with U.S. jobs and GDP data along with a slew of big tech earnings. With markets in the final stretch before the U.S. presidential election plus the Federal Reserve’s November meeting volatility looks set to continue. Here's your look at what's happening in markets for the week ahead.
1. Nonfarm payrolls
Friday’s employment report is expected to show that jobs growth slowed to a more modest 111,000 in October, reflecting the impact of strikes (at Boeing (NYSE:BA), Textron (NYSE:TXT), and Hilton Hotels) and weather-related disruptions from Hurricane Helene and Milton. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
The Fed has already telegraphed its intention to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting after delivering a 50-bps cut in September, but this week’s economic data could still have some bearing on that decision.
While Fed officials will likely look through temporary factors affecting payroll numbers, Tuesday's JOLTS data for September and Thursday's report on initial jobless claims will be closely watched for any signs of softening in the labor market.
2. GDP data
The other major data releases that the Fed will pay close attention to in the coming week are Wednesday’s first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product and Thursday's report on personal income and spending, which contains the central bank’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index.
Economists are expecting the economy to have expanded at a solid 3% annual rate, matching the rate of growth in the previous quarter.
The economic calendar also features October data on consumer confidence and business sentiment, a report on pending home sales and the Institute for Supply Management is to release its October manufacturing index.
Fed officials will be in a communications blackout ahead of the November 7 policy meeting.
3. Megacap earnings
Five of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks that have played an outsize role in driving market gains over the past couple of years are set to report in the coming week.
Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is due to report on Tuesday, followed by Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Facebook parent Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) on Wednesday and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) on Thursday.
The companies have a huge influence on markets because of their massive market values. They jointly account for 23% of the weight of the S&P 500, meaning market reaction to their results could sway broader indexes in the days ahead.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), the first of the Magnificent Seven to report results, saw its shares surge on Thursday after CEO Elon Musk said he expects vehicle sales to grow 20% to 30% next year.
Taken together, the companies have posted much stronger profit growth than the rest of the S&P 500, but that gap is expected to close in coming quarters.
4. Market swings
This week will be the final full week in markets ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election and the Fed’s next monetary policy decision on Nov. 7, which means investors will likely remain on edge.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris are tied in national and swing state polling, but former president Trump has improved his margins in recent weeks. The former president is also a slight favourite in election prediction markets.
"Investors should expect market volatility in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election," analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management said in a note on Thursday. As Nov. 5 "inches closer, market sentiment is likely to stay vulnerable."
5. Oil prices
Oil prices are likely to fall when trading resumes on Monday after Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear infrastructure and did not disrupt energy supplies.
Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 4% last week in volatile trade as markets priced in uncertainty around the extent of Israel's response to the Iranian missile attack on Oct. 1 and the upcoming U.S. election.
Iran on Saturday downplayed Israel's air attack against Iranian military targets, saying it caused only limited damage.
Meanwhile, energy traders are awaiting more clarity on China's stimulus policies, though analysts do not expect such measures to provide a major boost to oil demand.
-Reuters contributed reporting
By Kate Abnett
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The leading U.N. body on climate change is experiencing a severe budget shortfall, according to a Reuters analysis of documents from the world body - a funding gap that diplomats said could impair international climate dialogue.
The analysis found a budget hole of at least 57 million euros ($61.53 million) for 2024 - or nearly half of the funding needed for the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat to run annual climate negotiations among nearly 200 countries and to help implement any agreements that are made.
Budgets set out for the UNFCCC span two years. Its total 2024-2025 budget - the body's three main budget lines combined - is for 240 million euros, with about half of that expected to be allocated for this year.
The UNFCCC's member countries signed off on the budget and are expected to contribute the funds. The budget includes a core fund into which these countries are obligated to contribute, a supplementary fund drawing voluntary donations, and another voluntary fund to help diplomats from poorer countries attend U.N. climate negotiations.
While a handful of countries such as Japan and Germany have exceeded their payment obligations, others - notably the United States and China, the world's two biggest economies and the top emitters of greenhouse gases - have not yet met theirs. Contributions are due on Jan. 1 each year.
The secretariat, set up under the 1992 UNFCCC treaty, is the world's key body for coordinating international efforts to reduce climate-warming emissions and staging summits where countries can hold one another accountable.
The budget shortfall has forced it to curtail activities – from reducing operating hours at its headquarters in Bonn, Germany, to cancelling regional "climate week" events this year. Those regional summits in countries such as Kenya and Malaysia last year raised billions of dollars in investment pledges from governments, investors and philanthropies for renewable energy, reforestation and other climate-focused projects.
"We continue to work relentlessly, but our resources are increasingly over-stretched," said a UNFCCC spokesperson, who asked not to be named, in response to the Reuters analysis.
Germany's climate envoy Jennifer Morgan urged countries to find a solution.
"We need a climate secretariat that can perform its functions," Morgan told Reuters. "We're facing a massive crisis around the world."
RECORD PAYMENT DELAYS
As of this month, the UNFCCC had received 63 million euros ($68 million) in contributions for 2024.
Officials in the United States and China told Reuters the countries would make their payments this year but did not specify when. State Department spokesperson Melvin Felix said the United States "still intends to provide a substantial contribution" to support the secretariat this year. The Chinese foreign ministry said China "will fulfil its obligations as always."
As of October, the United States still owed 7.3 million euros to the UNFCCC's 2024 core budget, though it has contributed 2.5 million euros to its supplementary budget. China still owed 5.6 million euros to the core budget, though it has contributed 497,000 euros to the supplementary fund.
Even if both countries meet their obligations this year, it would not be enough to cover the hole in the UNFCCC's overall budget.