Oil prices held steady on Friday as investors awaited news from high-stakes talks between the United States and Iran that are taking place in Oman amid fears of another supply-disrupting Middle East conflict.

Brent crude futures rose 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $67.62 a barrel by 1055 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was also up 7 cents, or 0.1%, at $63.36 a barrel.

Still, Brent was set to end the week 4.3% down, as WTI was on track to end the week little changed.

"Investors are watching the U.S.-Iran talks, and their sentiment is shaped by the outcome of these talks," said Tamas Varga, an oil analyst at brokerage PVM.

The market is waiting for the outcome of these negotiations, he said.

Lack of consensus on the agenda for the meeting between Iran and the United States has kept investors anxious about geopolitical risk.

Iran wants to stick to nuclear issues, while the United States wants to discuss Iran’s ballistic missiles and support for armed groups in the region.

Any escalation of tension between the two nations could disrupt oil flows, since about a fifth of the world’s total consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, as does fellow OPEC member Iran.

If the U.S.-Iran talks ease the prospect of conflict in the region, oil prices could decline further.

"We think that geopolitical fears will give way to weak fundamentals," Capital Economics analysts said in a note, pointing to a recovery in Kazakhstan’s oil output that will help push prices lower, towards $50 a barrel, by the end of 2026.

On a weekly basis, prices were weighed down by a broader selloff in markets and by persisting expectations of an oversupply of oil, analysts said.

Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its Arab Light crude to Asia for March to around a five-year low on Thursday, marking the fourth straight month of price cuts.

"The underlying fundamental backdrop is not really encouraging, it implies an oversupplied market," said PVM’s Varga.

Silver prices tumbled in Asian trade on Thursday, leading losses across precious metals as the sector faced a wave of renewed selling that largely wiped out a short-lived rebound this week. 

Spot silver slumped as much as 16.7% to $73.5565 an ounce, coming back in sight of lows hit during last week’s rout. Silver futures for March delivery tumbled more than 10% to $73.383/oz. 

Losses in the silver metal came abruptly during the Asian session, and were accompanied by a small uptick in the dollar. 

"Even as prices of precious metals are now less elevated following the correction, sensitivity to the USD, yield repricing, and uncertainty around Fed policy under new leadership remains high. While positioning has likely reset to some extent, confidence may not have fully restored, pointing to a potential period of choppier, two-way trading," Christopher Wong, FX strategist at OCBC said in a mailed comment. 

Still, Wong viewed the recent precious metals pullback more "as a normalisation phase rather than a trend reversal," adding that the fundamentals behind the metal rally-- central bank demand for gold and industrial demand for silver-- still remained intact. 

"While higher beta and sentiment-driven flows can amplify short-term volatility, medium-term fundamentals remain supported by demand from solar PV, grid modernisation and electrification themes, which should help cushion downside once positioning and sentiment stabilise," Wong said. 

Strength in the dollar had been a major weight on precious metals over the past week, as the greenback rebounded from near four-year lows after U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, was viewed as being less dovish than markets were hoping.

This notion continued to chip away at metal prices in recent sessions. 

Traders also remained largely biased towards the dollar ahead of key central bank meetings in Europe on Thursday, and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due next week. The payrolls data-- initially scheduled for Friday, was delayed to February 11 due to a partial government shutdown earlier in the week. 

The U.S. dollar’s recent recovery will be short-lived, holding steady before resuming a broader decline later in the year, a Reuters survey of currency strategists showed, as markets cling to interest rate cut expectations amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. 

The dollar has fallen nearly 11% since U.S. President Donald Trump took office a little over a year ago, with his repeated calls for much lower interest rates and his recent expression of indifference to a weaker dollar accelerating a recent decline.

After Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as Fed chair on Friday, the dollar clawed back some losses as many interpreted the choice as likely to yield fewer rate cuts this year than other candidates for the job.

The euro is forecast to hold broadly steady at its current $1.18 level at end-February and $1.185 in three months, though there was little change among FX strategists in a Reuters poll taken between January 30 and February 4 on expectations of a weaker greenback over the medium-term.

DOLLAR LIKELY TO BE ’CHOPPY’ FOR MOST OF YEAR

The six-month and one-year median euro forecasts of $1.20 and $1.21 respectively were the joint-highest levels in Reuters polls since September 2021, last matched in October 2025.

"For most of the year, including the next few weeks, the dollar is likely to be choppy," said Jane Foley, head of FX research at Rabobank. "We still don’t think the market has fully put to bed concerns about Fed independence and credibility."

Asked how the net-short dollar trade would evolve by end-February, all but two of 50 respondents said positioning would remain net-short, a view they have maintained since at least April last year.

Even with inflation running above 2% for nearly five years, the longest stretch since the early 1990s, interest rate futures traders are still pricing in two rate reductions this year.

DESIRE FOR LOWER RATES

The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is expected to keep its deposit rate steady all year. 

"The administration has been very vocal about their desire for lower rates despite the fact inflation remains quite sticky and above target. Our concern is the Fed dismisses those upside inflation risks and potentially looks to cut policy even below what may be appropriate at the time," said Alex Cohen, FX strategist at Bank of America.

"We see that risk pushing real interest rates lower, making the yield curve steeper and the dollar to continue to gradually depreciate over the course of the year."

JAPANESE YEN PREDICTED TO RISE

The Japanese yen hit a near 18-month low of around 159/$ in January, but recently has come under renewed pressure following comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi seeking voter support for higher spending and tax cuts, talking up the benefits of a weaker yen.

Japan holds national elections on Sunday. 

While Takaichi later walked back her comments, worries linger that these mixed signals could hurt efforts to support a frail yen.

Still, FX strategists predicted the currency will rise about 4% to 151.33/$ in six months and to 148/$ in a year.

"Markets are clearly not keen on the Prime Minister’s policies. She has mentioned in a very Trump-like fashion the benefits of a weak yen in terms of being able to export more. But markets are very dubious about her credibility in terms of fiscal policy," Rabobank’s Foley said.

Foley added that while Takaichi has offered some reassurance on the fiscal side, markets remain wary of higher spending potentially stoking inflation and prompting an already-hawkish Bank of Japan to accelerate interest-rate hikes.

"The yen should then have a counterbalance," she said.

Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Tuesday, with silver and platinum also advancing as precious metals steadied from two days of outsized losses. 

Spot gold surged nearly 4% to $4,855.93 an ounce, while gold futures for April rose 4.4% to $4,853.79/oz. 

Spot silver rallied 5.1% to $83.105/oz, while spot platinum rose 1.7% to $2,167.67/oz. 

Gold recovers after plummeting from record highs

Gold prices had slumped as low as $4,400/oz on Monday, losing nearly $1,200/oz from a record high hit last week. 

Metals were slapped with a heavy dose of profit-taking after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the central bank. 

While the nomination cleared out a major point of uncertainty for markets, sapping some safe haven demand, Warsh is also seen as a less dovish pick than markets were expecting. 

Still, signs of a gold recovery appeared to be in play late-Monday, with spot gold ending well above its intraday lows. 

"Further stabilisation will be determined by the mentality of the retail market. Physical demand from this sector has been strong in recent months and could provide a strong backdrop to the selling from leveraged trades in the institutional market," ANZ analysts wrote in a note, while noting that the fundamentals behind gold still remained strong.  

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.2% to $13,081.95 a ton, while COMEX copper futures rose 1.4% to $5.9104 a pound. 

Recent losses in copper were far less pronounced than those seen in precious metals, as the outlook for copper demand-- amid growing energy generation and data center construction-- remained upbeat. 

ANZ analysts noted that Chinese consumers had stepped in to buy copper at discounted prices last week, with the country also seen stocking up on the red metal ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. 

China is the world’s largest importer of copper, with demand in the country expected to remain robust as Beijing doles out more stimulative policies. 

Silver prices slid on Monday, extending a decline in the wake of the metal’s worst-ever session on Friday, after commodity exchange CME Group lifted its margin requirements.

Spot silver prices were down by more than 4% at $81.09 an ounce by 05:32 ET (10:32 GMT), paring back some losses following a slide of 12% earlier on Monday.

Since rising to a record high of $121.64 per ounce last week, silver has retreated by more than 30%.

Gold has also slumped, with the yellow metal now exchanging hands well below the $5,000 per ounce level it had topped only days ago.

"While a correction was overdue after the intense rally, the scale of Friday’s decline far exceeded most expectations," analysts at ING including Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson said in a note.

Together, the declines in silver and gold have weighed on broader risk sentiment as the new trading week began. U.S. stock futures pointed lower and Asian equities fell, while the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, was under pressure.

Over the weekend, CME Group said it would increase margins on its precious metals futures starting from the close of markets on Monday. An uptick in margin requirements can force investors to factor in a higher capital outlay, potentially denting speculation.

Meanwhile, the precipitous drop in the metals has pushed leveraged investors to offload other assets to cover margin calls.

Renewed strength in the U.S. dollar has threatened to take some of the sheen off of the metals’ appeal as well. The greenback has firmed since President Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee to become the next Federal Reserve Chair.

Warsh -- who formerly served as a Fed governor -- has aligned with Trump’s calls for sharply lower interest rates, although he has also balked at the Fed’s asset buying operations.

Gold prices fell Friday, briefly dropping below $5,000/oz, after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled he will announce his nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair later in the day, helping the dollar surge higher.

At 05:40 ET (10:40 GMT), Spot gold slid 5.5% to $5,076.18 an ounce, briefly falling below $5,000/oz to a low of $4,941.79, while gold futures for April fell 4.7% to $5,104.31/oz.

"In this environment, gold is increasingly being used as a source of liquidity rather than a traditional safe-haven asset," said analysts at ING, in a note.

But prices still remained on course for a stellar January, gaining around 16%, after hitting a series of record highs in the month.  

Trump to announce Fed Chair nominee on Friday; Warsh seen in the lead

Trump told reporters on Thursday evening that he will announce his nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair on Friday morning. 

Several reports said that Trump will nominate Kevin Warsh for the role, with Trump’s comments to reporters also suggesting that the former Fed governor was in the lead. 

"A lot of people think that this is somebody that could have been there a few years ago,” Trump told reporters on Thursday. 

Warsh -- who had lost out to Powell for the top Fed role in 2017-- has largely supported Trump’s calls for more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Fed, but is also considered to be one of the less radical choices among the various candidates that have publicly suggested for the role.

“Warsh has been amongst the most market-friendly candidates, as he is a former Fed governor with a history of hawkish views, especially on balance sheet reduction,” said ING.

“Given how adamant Trump has been on reducing rates, it’s safe to assume Warsh has taken a more dovish stance during the interview process – but this pick may suggest a desire to calm speculation on Fed independence loss.”

There has been growing market uncertainty over the independence of the Fed, amid repeated calls from Trump that the central bank cut interest rates sharply. 

Trump’s announcement on Friday is expected to clear out a major point of uncertainty for markets -- a trend that could sap gold of some safe haven demand.

Gold adds about 20% in January, silver leads metal gains 

Despite Friday’s steep losses, spot gold was trading up about 17% in January, while other precious metals were also set for strong gains. 

The yellow metal headlined a rush into safe havens, as heightened global geopolitical tensions, especially between the U.S. and other world powers, ramped up haven demand for metals and physical assets. 

A sharp drop in the dollar, amid growing uncertainty over U.S. fiscal health and the Fed also benefited metal markets, as did uncertainty over U.S. interest rates. 

Silver, platinum, and palladium prices were also swept up in metal buying, with silver being the standout performer in January. The white metal was set to add more than 40% this month. 

Platinum was trading up about 11%, while palladium was up nearly 18%. 

Meta Platforms outlined full year 2026 capital expenditures that were higher than expectations, although a comfortable revenue and profit beat for the fourth quarter helped to assuage investor concerns over returns from the Facebook owner’s massive spending push on artificial intelligence.  

Shares of the Magnificent 7 member were up more than 8% in premarket trading on Thursday.

For the first quarter, the social media giant sees revenue of $53.5 billion to $56.5 billion, versus a consensus of $51.27 billion.

For the full year 2026, Meta sees capex of $115 billion to $135 billion and total expenses of $162 billion to $169 billion. The outlook for both metrics came in higher than the Street’s expectation of $110 billion and $150 billion, respectively, according to estimates compiled by Jefferies. 

Jefferies analyst Brent Thill a week ago said that even if Meta’s guidance for capex and expenses came in higher, it would not surprise investors. “(Management) has telegraphed elevated spend needs & typically issues initial guidance that lands above actual results,” Thill said.

The owner of WhatsApp and Instagram has been aggressively spending on its artificial intelligence infrastructure including billions in investments in data centers to support its AI products. Just on Tuesday, the tech behemoth announced a $6 billion agreement with Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) to supply fiber optic cables for its data centers.

The company said its full year 2026 capex guidance reflected increased investment to support its Superintelligence Labs efforts and core business.

Meanwhile, Meta said the majority of its expense growth in 2026 will be due to infrastructure costs, which includes third-party cloud spend and higher infrastructure operating expenses.

"There are some investors who are concerned that META is changing from an asset-light company to one that will require significant borrowing to meet those spending requirements, but the early response shows that those are taking a back seat to the positives on revenue, especially when the company was able to charge more for ads," Interactive Brokers’ Sosnick said.   

Meta’s latest results come at a time of muted performance for the stock, which has risen only about 2% year-to-date, in-line with the broader S&P 500 index. The stock ended 2025 with an advance of 12.7%, underperforming the benchmark gauge’s 16.4% climb, and placing fourth in terms of annual performance among its Magnificent 7 peers.

Meta earned $8.88 per share on revenue of $59.89 billion for the fourth quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $8.19 per share on revenue of $58.35 billion. 

"We had strong business performance in 2025. I’m looking forward to advancing personal superintelligence for people around the world in 2026," CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a statement.

Gold prices hit a record high above $5,200 an ounce on Wednesday as strong haven demand and prolonged weakness in the dollar benefited metal markets. 

Other precious metals also remained upbeat, with silver and platinum both remaining close to recent record highs. Haven demand was underpinned by caution before the conclusion of a Federal Reserve meeting later in the day. 

Spot gold jumped to a record high of $5,266.38/oz, while gold futures for April hit a peak of $5,297.86/oz. 

Gold aided by geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty

Demand for havens remained strong after U.S. President Donald Trump said there was a second armada headed towards Iran, and that he hoped the country would accept a deal with Washington.

Uncertainty over U.S. policy has been a major driver of gold’s rally this year, as an incursion in Venezuela and a spat over Greenland drummed up global geopolitical tensions. The yellow metal is trading up about 20% so far in 2026, after clocking stellar gains in the prior year. 

Weakness in the dollar also benefited gold and metal markets, with the greenback sliding to a near four-year low this week. Trump on Tuesday indicated that he was unconcerned by a weaker dollar-- a move that sparked even deeper losses in the currency. 

Silver, platinum prices upbeat as Fed meeting looms 

Broader metal prices also remained largely upbeat and close to recent record highs as risk aversion and weakness in the dollar drove demand for physical assets. 

Spot silver jumped 2.8% to $115.2455/oz, while spot platinum rose 1.3% to $2,688.23/oz. 

ANZ analysts said in a note that silver was a major beneficiary of physical demand in China, where investors had relatively limited options to invest in for metals exposure and could only buy bars and coins of the white metal.  

Gains in metals come with the Fed set to conclude a two-day meeting later in the day, where the central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75%. 

Focus will be squarely on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s outlook on monetary policy, and whether the Fed chair will address recent pressure from Washington to sharply cut interest rates. 

Trump said on Tuesday that he was close to naming his pick for the next Fed chair after Powell, and that interest rates will fall with new leadership at the central bank. 

This comes after Powell earlier in January claimed that Washington was seeking to pressure the Fed into cutting rates through a Department of Justice investigation-- a move that sparked heightened concerns over the central bank’s independence. 

U.S. stock index futures traded either side of the flatline Tuesday, as investors awaited a key Federal Reserve decision and heavyweight technology earnings.

At 05:45 ET (10:45 GMT), Dow Jones Futures traded 40 points, or 0.1% lower, while S&P 500 Futures gained 20 points, or 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 155 points, or 0.6%.

The main averages advanced in the prior session, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite both rising for a fourth straight session. Both indices touched their highest levels in over a week, and are now on their longest streak of positive sessions since December.

Fed starts policy-setting meeting

Markets are largely in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday.

This caution means that President Donald Trump’s announcement that he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% from 15%, accusing Seoul’s legislature of failing to approve a bilateral trade deal reached last year, has had little impact on sentiment.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, with policymakers seen assessing the impact of easing financial conditions, cooling inflation trends, and a labor market that has shown signs of gradual moderation.

Recent data has reinforced expectations that the Fed will avoid signaling near-term cuts, as officials seek greater confidence that inflation will move sustainably toward their 2% target.

Aside for clues about clues on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts later in the year, investors will also be looking for any updates about the identity of the next Fed governor, with Jerome Powell’s tenure set to end in May.

"Rick Rieder’s odds of replacing Powell have shot higher in recent days following some flattering press reports," said analysts at Vital Knowledge, in a note. "

Rieder is currently a senior manager at BlackRock.

That said, "regardless of who gets the nod, Fed independence will remain under threat for at least the balance of the Trump 2.0 administration as the central bank is set to continue acting as a financial scapegoat)," Vital Knowledge added.

Earnings deluge starts

Away from the Fed, attention is also firmly on the upcoming earnings season, with more than 90 S&P 500 companies slated to report. 

Earnings this quarter have been strong so far, with about three out of four S&P 500 companies beating expectations, according to data from FactSet.

While results from tech giants Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will likely grab the week’s headlines, Tuesday will still see some key reports before U.S. stock markets open.

Healthcare giant Unitedhealth (NYSE:UNH), aerospace firm Rtx Corp (NYSE:RTX), and planemaker Boeing (NYSE:BA) are scheduled to announce quarterly earnings before the opening bell, as well as carmaker General Motors (NYSE:GM) and shipping player United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS).

Elsewhere, shares of several large health insurers, including Humana (NYSE:HUM) and CVS Health (NYSE:CVS), dropped sharply premarket following a proposal by the Trump administration to set near-flat payment rates for Medicare Advantage plans, disappointing markets that had expected a more generous increase.

Gold and crude rise

Gold prices rose on Tuesday after hitting a series of record highs on concerns over Trump’s trade policies and heightened global geopolitical tensions.

Anticipation ahead of the Fed meeting this week also kept markets broadly risk averse.

Spot gold last jumped 1.6% to $5,087.54 an ounce, while gold futures for April delivery fell 0.1% to $5,120.91/oz. Spot gold hit an all-time peak of $5,111.11/oz on Monday.

Oil prices also gained, helped by supply disruptions from extreme winter conditions in the U.S.

Brent futures gained 0.5% to $65.07 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.6% to $61.01 a barrel.

A severe winter storm has swept across the U.S., straining energy infrastructure and power grids.

U.S. oil producers are estimated to have lost up to 2 million barrels per day or roughly 15% of national production over the weekend.

Gold surged past the $5,100 an ounce level on Monday, extending a blistering rally from last week as investors rushed into the safe-haven asset amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

Spot gold jumped nearly 2.5% to a new all-time high of $5,111.11/oz by 18:52 ET (00:52 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures also climbed 2.5% to a record peak of $5,145.39/oz.

Gold advanced more than 8% last week, when prices repeatedly broke historical peaks. It has already risen nearly 17% this year, driven by a combination of geopolitical risk, expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy later in 2026, and sustained demand from central banks.

Other precious metals were also upbeat on Monday. Silver prices rallied 6% to hit a record high of $109.46/oz. Platinum gained 4% to a new peak of $2,910.67/oz.

Geopolitical risks, Trump tariff threats boost gold

A major driver of gold’s surge this month has been escalating tensions between the United States and NATO allies over Greenland, which have unsettled global markets.

Trump’s rhetoric over U.S. strategic interests in the Arctic region has strained transatlantic relations, prompting concerns about broader diplomatic and economic fallout.

Compounding those geopolitical strains, Trump intensified trade friction with Canada this weekend, vowing to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Ottawa proceeds with a trade agreement with China.

Trump wrote on his social media platform that Canada could be used as a “drop off port” for Chinese goods to enter the United States and warned that Beijing would “eat Canada alive” if such a deal goes ahead

Fed rate decision on tap

Gold has also drawn support from expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is due to conclude its policy meeting on Wednesday, and markets are widely anticipating that policymakers will keep interest rates on hold.

While a pause is largely priced in, investors will scrutinise the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for clues on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts later this year.

Lower interest rates tend to support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

"Both the data and Chair Powell’s robust defence of central bank independence indicate little prospect of a 28 January Fed rate cut," ING analysts said in a note.

"The focus will be on President Trump’s imminent nomination for the new Fed Chair, the upcoming data, and whether that person can corral the rest of the committee into further cuts," they added.