Futures linked to the major U.S. stock indices waver on Friday, with investors assessing fighting in the Middle East which has shown few signs of easing. Oil prices are on pace for big weekly gains, as fears surround supplies coming through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway. Elsewhere, the February U.S. job report is due out, while Marvell Technology shares surge as artificial intelligence-driven data center spending fuels an annual revenue forecast increase.

1. Futures waver amid Iran conflict

U.S. stock futures ticked below the flatline, with sentiment fragile as the Iran conflict entered its seventh day.

By 04:20 ET (09:20 GMT), the Dow futures contract had dropped by 72 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had slipped 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen by 55 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street fell in the prior session, dragged down by a climb in oil prices as fears continued to swirl around the choking off of supplies through the narrow Strait of Hormuz waterway south of Iran.

U.S. crude futures have spiked by almost 21% since the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran. The fighting has since spread to other parts of the Middle East and Persian Gulf, threatening oil flows out of the major producing region.

Average gasoline costs in the U.S. have jumped by 27 cents following the start of the assault to $3.25 per gallon, according to Reuters, citing data from travel group AAA.

Faced with the prospect of increased gas prices, some investors have begun to worry that a prolonged conflict may spark a surge in inflationary pressures, which could delay the timeline for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year. U.S. bond yields have risen, denting stocks.

Beyond the U.S., soaring crude prices have weighed on Asian equities and currencies, especially in South Korea, which heavily imports oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea’s Kospi index ended the session broadly unchanged, but has slipped by 10.56% over the past one-week period. The main indices in Europe were also on course for their biggest weekly drops since last April.

2. Oil on pace for weekly jump

Oil prices were on track to notch hefty weekly gains, as traders remain worried that the conflict will close off the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes.

In a move to ease some these concerns, the U.S. has announced it would allow the sale of Russian oil to India for a period of 30 days.

"While this might help put some immediate downward pressure on the market, it is not a game-changer. The only way for prices to come down on a sustained basis is a resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz," analysts at ING said in a note.

The U.S. Treasury Department is also anticipated to unveil measures aimed at corralling energy prices through financial markets, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, there have been few signs that the fighting will soon let up. Israel launched strikes at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and targeted Tehran, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched its own barrage of drones and missiles at Tel Aviv, media reports said.

Iran has also delayed the naming of a successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S. and Israeli air strikes, the New York Times has reported. Ayatollah Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei is viewed as the frontrunner for the post, but U.S. President Donald Trump has called the possible appointment "unacceptable."

3. NFPs ahead

Although the Iran conflict has dominated the market narrative this week, investors will shift their gaze back to the state of the U.S. economy on Friday, when the February jobs report will be released.

The U.S. is expected to have added 58,000 roles last month, down from a blowout total of 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate is seen matching January’s pace of 4.3%.

Fed policymakers have been keeping close tabs on a U.S. labor market which has been broadly resilient, even as hiring and firing activity has remained tepid. The Fed has left interest rates steady until more clarity emerges around the trajectory of employment.

Artificial intelligence may also color how the data is perceived. Workers and analysts have long flagged that the rise of new AI tools could lead to mass white-collar layoffs, as companies cite the technology as a means of cutting costs and increasing productivity. A move last week by Jack Dorsey’s payments firm Block to slash roughly 40% of its workforce heaped fuel on to these predictions.

4. Marvell spikes

Shares of Marvell Technology jumped by more than 14% in extended hours trading, after the semiconductor company lifted its full-year revenue outlook thanks to strong ongoing data center spending by AI hyperscalers.

Mega-cap companies like Amazon and Microsoft have made AI a central focus of their operations, and plan to shell out billions of dollars to rapidly build out the data centers that power and train the nascent technology.

Firms like Marvell, which designs and proves the internal plumbing that connects data between large-scale computer systems, have been key beneficiaries of the heavy spending.

CEO Matt Murphy told investors that the firm now expect annual revenue for its fiscal 2027 to rise by over 30% versus a year ago to nearly $11 billion. Marvell’s data center unit, in particular, is anticipated to power year-on-year revenue growth in each quarter of fiscal 2027, Murphy added.

5. Nvidia asks TSMC to stop producing China chips - FT

Nvidia has asked top contract chipmaker TSMC to stop producing chips intended for China amid continued sales headwinds from U.S. export controls, the Financial Times reported on Thursday. 

The world’s most valuable company has reallocated manufacturing capacity at TSMC away from its H200 chips to the next-generation Vera Rubin hardware, the FT reported, citing two people with knowledge of the matter.

The shift suggest that Nvidia no longer expects major sales of its H200 in China, especially amid increased uncertainty over U.S. export restrictions and Chinese regulatory pushback.

President Trump indicated in December that he would allow Nvidia to sell its H200 chips in China. While the H200 is a years-old chip, it is still the most advanced artificial intelligence processor Nvidia is allowed to sell in the country, under strict U.S. export controls. 

But Chinese sales had stalled as U.S. lawmakers pushed for stricter restrictions on how China could use the H200 chips. China was also seen pushing back against Nvidia, as part of a broader push by Beijing for complete self-reliance across the AI industry. 

Gold prices edged higher Thursday with the escalating Middle East war supported bullion’s safe-haven appeal.

At 06:05 ET (11:05 GMT), Spot gold traded 0.5% higher at $5,167.00 an ounce, after rising over $5,200/oz earlier in the day. U.S. Gold Futures gained 0.8% to $5,176.35/oz.

The yellow metal gained 1% in the previous session. The rebound followed a near 5% pullback on Tuesday when a stronger dollar weighed on prices.

Gold helped by elevated Middle East tensions

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated after the U.S. sank an Iranian warship in international waters, while Iran continued to fire missiles into several countries across the region and reportedly targeted critical energy infrastructure.

The conflict has deepened fears of a sustained regional war, prompting investors to reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets and flock to gold, which is traditionally viewed as a hedge against geopolitical instability and market turbulence.

"Looking ahead, gold faces competing macro forces," said analysts at ING, in a note. "The inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict, via sharply higher energy prices, could reinforce expectations of higher interest rates for longer -- a headwind for non‑yielding assets such as gold."

"However, elevated geopolitical uncertainty continues to support a risk premium, helping to underpin prices despite the challenging rates backdrop," they added.

Dollar strength limits gold’s gains

Trader are also keeping an eye on the US Dollar Index, which bounced back Thursday after slipping 0.3% overnight. It posted two consecutive sessions of strong gains at the start of the week.

A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

“Uncertainty typically supports safe havens, implying upside for gold,” Morgan Stanley strategists led by Amy Gower wrote in a note, but added that recent price action has been “more mixed with USD strength.”

Several forces are currently influencing gold prices simultaneously. These include expectations around Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, currency movements, geopolitical risk, and market liquidity conditions.

According to the strategists, the recent selling in gold may reflect investors raising cash during periods of market stress rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment.

“We think gold’s underperformance is likely to be temporary if the current situation continues, with recent selling most likely due to the need for liquidity,” the strategists said.

Among other precious metals, silver prices rose 1.6% to $84.53 per ounce, while platinum gained 1% to $2,176.200/oz. 

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange dropped 1.2% to $12,904.00 a ton and U.S.Copper Futures also fell 1.3% to $5.8308 a pound.

The conflict in the Middle East escalated on Wednesday, with the U.S. sustaining its ongoing assault of Iran and Israel bombarding sites linked with Tehran’s missile and air-defense systems, although stock futures on Wall Street climbed following a media report on possible secret discussions over a ceasefire.

Tehran has targeted locations in Israel as well as U.S. bases and embassies across the Middle East in retaliation. Iran has also promised to select a new supreme leader to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an air barrage over the weekend.

Concerns have subsequently risen that the conflict could stretch on longer than President Donald Trump’s initial four- to five-week timeline. A senior U.S. military commander said that American forces were engaged in "24/7 strikes into Iran from seabed to space and cyberspace," adding that further assets would be utilized.

Admiral Brad Cooper, the overall commander of the U.S. campaign, said the continuous assault has degraded Iran’s air defenses and left the country without operational vessels on key waterways, Reuters reported, citing a video briefing.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also warned that any new leader appointed by Iran could be "an unequivocal target for elimination."

The prospect of a protracted crisis choking off a significant portion of global oil and gas supplies has driven up prices for both, threatening to reignite upward pressure on inflation.

U.S. futures erase losses

On Tuesday, the specter of renewed price gains -- and a potential delay to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year -- sparked a jump in U.S. Treasury yields that led to a whipsaw session in U.S. stock markets.

For investors, a central worry is that the violence in the Middle East may cause extended disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas supplies flows.

Brent crude prices, which were trading at around $73 a barrel prior to the start of the assault on Iran, have risen sharply. The Brent futures contract was last trading hands at $83.48 a barrel, a rise of 1.6%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude future had moved up 0.9% to $75.26 a barrel.

Oil prices jumped by as much as 8% on Tuesday, but later gave back much of it after President Trump suggested that the U.S. may begin to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the cost of natural gas, key for everything from electricity to heating, has soared in Europe and Asia. Iranian attacks on a Qatari natural gas site have halted gas flows out of the major producer, crimping supply in several countries reliant on these shipments.

Jitters over rising energy costs have hit stocks in Asia especially hard. Nations in East Asia like South Korea and Japan heavily import oil and gas that goes through the Strait of Hormuz, exposing them to dwindling shipping activity through the narrow geographic passageway south of Iran. South Korea’s Kospi index, in particular, fell so much on Wednesday that trading had to be temporarily suspended.

But futures on Wall Street turned positive, while oil prices moderated, following a New York Times report that Iranian operatives have made an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict. Citing officials briefed on the outreach, the paper flagged that U.S. officials are skeptical that either the Trump administration or Iran are ready to take such an offramp.

Israeli officials, keen on inflicting maximum damage on Iran’s military apparatus and possibly overthrowing Tehran’s government, have told the U.S. to ignore the approach, the New York Times reported.

In public, Iran’s leaders have not made any moves to try to negotiate with Washington.

Israel struck targets in Iran and Lebanon, while Tehran launched its own barrage of counter-attacks, as the conflict in the Middle East further widened on Tuesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that Washington, which has been carrying out a joint campaign with Israel against Iran, could pursue prolonged fighting in the region. Trump, speaking at his first public event since the U.S. and Israel hit Iran with initial strikes over the weekend, said the U.S. had a "virtually unlimited supply" of some types of weapons.

Trump previously said U.S. involvement in the conflict would last for the next four to five weeks.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the latest wave of attacks -- which come after a brief, U.S.-backed 12-day war with Iran in June last year -- was "not going to take years."

"It’s not an endless war," Netanyahu said on Fox News on Monday.

Israel’s military has said it has attacked targets in the Iranian capital of Tehran, as well as command centers and weapons storage facilities of Iran-supported Hezbollah in Beirut.

Iran has continued its own retaliatory responses on sites throughout the Middle East. The U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia sustained minor damage from Iranian drone strikes, according to the New York Times, citing the Saudi Defense Ministry. Amazon’s cloud-computing business also said two of its facilities in the UAE and Bahrain were hit by drone strikes and were "significantly impaired."

Dubai’s international airport, a major hub for global travel, has also been attacked. Hotel and airline stocks were broadly lower on Tuesday, extending underperformance in the prior session.

Oil flow disruption fears

Oil prices surged, adding to the previous session’s sharp gains, as threats to flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to underpin supply disruption worries.

Brent futures soared 4.3% to $81.10 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 4% to $74.05 a barrel.

Both contracts closed more than 7% higher after climbing as much as 13% to one-year highs on Monday.

Tensions have intensified after Iranian officials vowed to attack any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect of disruption to crude flows from the major Gulf producers.

"The sharp move reflects a rapid repricing of supply risk as markets grapple with the prospect of prolonged conflict and constrained energy exports,” Laurence Booth, Global Head of Markets at CMC Markets, told Investing.com.

Still, analysts at Vital Knowledge have argued that the OPEC+ producer group’s recent willingness to increase output could provide a modest buffer to possible major stoppages of oil flows.

Fears over the choking off of key oil supplies weighed heavily on markets in Asia, the destination for much of the oil flows. Stocks in South Korea, Tokyo and Taiwan all dropped. European markets declined as well.

In the U.S., stock futures pointed to a negative start to trading, despite a rebound on Monday that widely pared back early heavy losses in equities.

Spot gold prices sank as bullion’s safe-haven appeal during times of geopolitical stress was dented by a strengthening in the U.S. dollar.

Gold prices jumped over 2% in Asian trading on Monday as investors rushed into safe-haven assets after the U.S. and Israel launched major strikes on Iran that killed the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Spot gold rose 2% to $5,380.55 an ounce by 01:33 ET (06:33 GMT), after reaching as high as $5,393.34/oz earlier in the session -- highest since late January.

U.S. Gold Futures climbed 2.8% to $5,391.46.

Middle East conflict boosts gold’s haven demand

Markets reacted to the unprecedented escalation in the Middle East after the weekend. The killing of Iran’s most powerful figure raised fears of a broader regional conflict and potential disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy artery.

Israeli forces launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran on Sunday, with missiles and aircraft targeting command infrastructure and air defences. Tehran responded with further missile barrages at Israeli territory and U.S. bases in the Gulf.

The geopolitical shock triggered a classic risk-off move across markets, with equities sliding and crude oil surging, reinforcing demand for bullion as a store of value.

"A regional spillover or disruption to energy supplies would materially boost gold through higher oil prices, increased inflation expectations and contained real yields," ING analysts said in a note.

Analyst flags $5,400/oz as key levels to watch

Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, Michael Brown, flagged $5,400/oz, followed by the late-Jan record high at $5,595/oz, as the key levels to watch to the upside.

"This weekend’s developments do reinforce the strong fundamental bull case for gold, which will remain the beneficiary of haven inflows in an increasingly uncertain world, with hefty retail and reserve demand both providing tailwinds too," he said.

Brown also sees a potential move towards the $6,000/oz mark by the end of the year.

Gold has risen nearly 25% this year, buoyed by geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and Federal Reserve easing bets.

Among other precious metals, Silver prices rose 1.3% to $95.15 per ounce, while platinum gained nearly 1% to $2,389.11/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.3% to $13,411 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures gained 0.2% to $6.07 a pound.

1. Futures lower

U.S. stock futures ticked lower on Friday, pointing to a downbeat end to the trading week as investors poured through the ramifications of a raft of consequential technology sector earnings.

By 02:59 ET (07:59 GMT), the Dow futures contract had fallen by 205 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures had dipped by 13 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were broadly unchanged.

The main averages on Wall Street notched a mixed close on Thursday, with results from artificial intelligence-darling Nvidia and cloud-software group Salesforce in focus.

While Nvidia posted better-than-expected quarterly results, there remained several concerns swirling around the semiconductor giant, including rapidly intensifying competition, the sustainability of runaway customer demand, and uncertainty over when investors will see significant returns. Shares of Nvidia -- which make up a notable chunk of the overall stock market -- dropped by more than 5%.

Salesforce shares, on the other hand, gained despite the company issuing an underwhelming annual revenue forecast. However, analysts at Vital Knowledge said the earnings were "no worse than feared."

Thursday’s session also featured a "violent rotation" within tech, as investors shifted away from "physical" stocks like chips and data center infrastructure and into virtual ones like software and data, the analysts added.

"Small red flags" from Nvidia and relief around numbers from Salesforce and peer Workday -- coupled with comments from AI startup Anthropic earlier this week about wanting to "compliment and augment, not kill" software firms -- helped to drive this trend, they argued.

2. Paramount wins bidding war for Warner Bros.

Paramount Skydance has become the likely winner of a longstanding corporate battle for Hollywood stalwart Warner Bros. Discovery after a stunning decision by Netflix to back away from its rival offer.

Executives at Netflix, whose shares spiked in after-hours trading following the announcement, said that while the transaction was "always a ’nice to have’ at the right price," it was "not a ’must have’ at any price." The streaming service has the financial firepower to pursue a purchase, but has encountered some doubts from shareholders around the justification for snapping up a legacy media organization.

Sparking Netflix’s move away from a previous agreement with Warner Bros. was the board of the HBO Max parent, which said it had determined Paramount’s $31-per-share offer for all of the company was a superior offer. Netflix was then given four days to respond, but chose to ditch its $27.75-per-share proposal for Warner Bros.’ studios and HBO Max.

This puts Paramount -- owned by David Ellison, son of tech mogul Larry Ellison -- in position to create a media powerhouse that will fold in Warner Bros.’ popular franchises like "Harry Potter" and "Game of Thrones." Should the purchase be agreed on and receive regulatory approval, Paramount would also oversee cable networks like CNN and TBS.

Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav said a Paramount deal would "create tremendous value for our shareholders." Shares of Paramount rose in extended hours trading, while Warner Bros. dipped.

3. Anthropic in dispute with U.S. government

Anthropic has said it will not agree to demands from the Pentagon to take down safeguards from its AI systems, putting one of the most prominent AI startups at odds with the U.S. government.

At issue is the Pentagon’s call for Anthropic to remove features preventing its technology from being used to conduct surveillance of Americans or power weapons autonomously.

The Pentagon has threatened to both end a partnership with Anthropic and deem it a "supply chain risk" should the company not accede to the request. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has given Anthropic a Friday afternoon deadline to agree that the Pentagon can use the technology in all lawful cases.

But Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said in a statement that he could not do so "in good conscience," adding that the guardrails would effectively be undone by the military’s request.

4. Block surges

Shares of Block soared by more than 23% in after-hours trading after the payments company said it would cull nearly half its workforce as part of an effort to embed AI deeper into its operations.

The job cuts, expected to result in the loss of over 4,000 roles, comes as firms are increasingly translating the rise of AI into wider headcount changes. This has in turn driven worries among workers and economists that the AI boom, despite boosting productivity, may lead to greater unemployment.

Block CEO Jack Dorsey said that "[i]ntelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company," adding "[w]e’re already seeing it internally" and "[a] significantly smaller team using the tools can do more and do it better[.]"

Although Block is planning to incur as much as $500 million in restructuring changes, analysts cited by Reuters have suggested that the spike in the stock is reflective of hopes that margins will strengthen as the workforce shrinks.

5. Oil inches up after U.S.-Iran talks

Oil prices inched higher, but could post weekly losses after the United States and Iran extended talks over Tehran’s nuclear program, easing concerns about potential hostilities that could disrupt supply.

Brent futures climbed 0.7% to $71.29 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.8% to $65.74 a barrel.

For the week, Brent is largely unchanged, but WTI was set to fall around 1%, reversing some of the previous week’s gains.

The talks between the two countries over Iran’s nuclear ambitions concluded on Thursday with no clear deal being agreed.

But they plan to resume negotiations with technical-level discussions scheduled to take place next week in Vienna, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said in a post on X after the meetings in Geneva.

Tensions over Iran have been a major driver of oil prices in February, with the U.S. amassing a major military force in the Middle East and threatening action if Tehran did not accept a deal.

The U.S. dollar stabilized Thursday after earlier losses on the back of strong earnings from AI giant Nvidia, with traders awaiting details of the latest U.S. tariffs.

At 03:00 ET (08:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 97.650, but was on track for weekly losses of around 0.2%.

Dollar stable after solid Nvidia result 

The dollar has steadied after beginning the day on the back foot as better-than-expected earnings from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) boosted investor confidence, weighing on this safe haven.

The world’s most valuable company reported that its January-quarter sales surpassed analyst expectations and forecast current-quarter revenue above market projections.

“Improved sentiment has weighed on the dollar over the past 24 hours, with only the yen taking a worse beating in G10 yesterday,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Traders are also keeping an eye on the Trump administration’s reaction to the Supreme Court’s ruling on February 20 that struck down the president’s emergency tariffs.

The U.S. tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10%, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday, without naming any specific trading partners or giving further details. 

Additionally, U.S. and Iranian officials are meeting in Geneva later in the session to discuss a nuclear deal, with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening “bad things” could happen to the Middle East country if meaningful progress is not achieved.

“Any escalation there looks like the most plausible catalyst for a broader dollar rally, given the reassurance from Nvidia’s results and the lack of major data releases,” said ING.

“Overall, we could see some stabilisation in the dollar today, though some downside risks remain as the positive spillover from Nvidia’s earnings may keep markets tilted away from defensive currencies a little longer.”

Euro slips slightly

In Europe, EUR/USD traded 0.1% lower to 1.1798, with Eurozone consumer confidence figures due later in the session.

However, these numbers, as well as inflation data on Friday, are unlikely to impact the single currency significantly with the European Central Bank likely to keep policy rates unchanged for some time to come.

“For now, the EUR:USD short-term rate differential remains unsupportive for EUR/USD, but we haven’t seen enough restoration of confidence in the dollar to call for a major leg lower from here. We still see 1.1750 as a good support level, barring a major escalation in Iran,” said ING.

GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.3523, with sterling struggling to benefit from data showing that sentiment in Britain’s business and professional services sector became markedly less negative in the current quarter.

The Confederation of British Industry’s quarterly services sector survey showed that optimism for business and professional services businesses jumped to -3 in February from -50 in November, its highest reading since August 2024.

Yen gains after Ueda interview 

In Asia, USD/JPY fell 0.3% to 156.01, after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said in an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun that policymakers would closely scrutinize incoming data at their March and April meetings, leaving open the possibility of another rate hike if inflation and wage trends remain firm.

The remarks reinforced expectations that Japan could continue its gradual normalization path.

The yen had weakened on Wednesday after media reports said Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi struck a cautious tone on further rate increases and following the nomination of two dovish-leaning candidates to the BOJ board.

USD/CNY traded 0.4% lower to 6.8392, with the pair falling to a fresh 34-month low amid expectations of policy support ahead of China’s annual parliamentary gathering, the National People’s Congress.

Investors are positioning for growth targets and potential fiscal stimulus signals at the meeting, which is widely seen as setting the tone for Beijing’s economic priorities this year.

AUD/USD dropped 0.1% to 0.7114, while NZD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.5988.

U.S. stock index futures edged higher Wednesday as investors cautiously awaited quarterly earnings from a number of major companies, including from AI bellwether Nvidia. 

At 05:20 ET (10:20 GMT), Dow Jones Futures gained 68 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 Futures advanced 10 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 40 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street advanced in the prior session, as concerns about artificial intelligence disruption across several industries dissipated. 

The broad-based S&P 500 gained 0.8%, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite rose nearly 1.1% to 22,863.68 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.8%. 

Nvidia to test market’s confidence 

Sentiment received a boost Tuesday after Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) announced a multi-year deal with Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), as well as Anthropic detailing a wave of partnerships, which helped to soothe some concerns around widespread disruption to software and data stocks from the AI startup’s newest models.

However, this optimism will be tested later in the session with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the world’s most valuable company, set to report its latest results after the close. These numbers are largely expected to act as a bellwether for the AI industry and chip demand, and are likely to act a signpost for the direction of global stock markets now entwined with the nascent technology.

"It’s not only Nvidia investors who will be nervous ahead of the company’s results; the entire global equity market may be on edge, given the importance of the AI trade," said Laurence Booth, Global Head of Markets at CMC Markets.

The chip maker has outpaced sales forecasts for 13 straight quarters, and thus it’s the size of the beat that is likely to matter to investors. Forecasts are for profits to rise 62% in the quarter to end January, and revenue to jump 68%, according to LSEG data.

Elsewhere, results from the likes of Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) and Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) are also due following the closing bell on Wall Street.

Among major aftermarket movers, HP (NYSE:HPQ) stock fell 5% after the PC developer presented an underwhelming outlook for 2026 amid headwinds from U.S. trade regulations and surging memory chip prices. 

Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY) fell over 8% after the enterprise software maker forecast downbeat revenue as corporations pull back on spending amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty. 

Trump’s State of the Union speech

Away from the corporate sector, uncertainty around the fate of President Donald Trump’s tariffs remains, after he imposed temporary 10% global duties following a Supreme Court decision striking down his so-called "reciprocal" levies.

At a State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump said "everything was working well" with his tariff agenda, adding that the Supreme Court ruling was "unfortunate."

Beyond tariffs, Trump spoke on a wide range of topics, from his administration’s attempts to curb inflation to ongoing peace negotiations with Iran. 

The president is grappling with increasing voter dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy, especially in curbing the high cost of living. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released on Sunday found only 39% of respondents approved his job as president so far, while 58% disapproved his handling of immigration. 

Crude near seven-month highs 

Oil prices hovered near seven-month highs ahead of nuclear deal negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Switzerland later this week.

Brent futures climbed 0.5% to $70.92 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.5% to $65.93 a barrel.

Both contracts remain close to their highest levels since early August as the U.S. has positioned military forces in the Middle East to compel Iran to agree to an end to its nuclear program.

U.S. envoys, including special representative Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner, are due to meet Iranian counterparts on Thursday.

As Nvidia heads into quarterly earnings on Wednesday, AI investors are seeking evidence that the chipmaker’s profits are growing apace on the back of a $630 billion capital spending budget from Big Tech. But signs of risk to Nvidia’s long-held dominance are also emerging from hyperscalers’ plans to design their own cheaper AI chips.

After powering much of the U.S. stock market rally for the past three years, Nvidia’s stock has risen just about 2% so far in 2026.

Along with Advanced Micro Devices, which is set to unveil a new flagship AI server later this year, Alphabet’s Google has emerged as a top rival with a deal to provide Claude chatbot creator Anthropic with its in-house chips called TPUs. Google is also in talks to supply Meta - a large Nvidia customer, according to media reports.

To defend its position, Nvidia struck a deal, reportedly worth $20 billion, last year to license chip technology from Groq - a move that analysts say would boost its position in the booming market for inference, the process by which a trained AI model answer questions in real time. Nvidia last week also agreed to sell millions of chips to Meta, though it did not disclose the value of the deal.

But Nvidia, the biggest winner of the AI boom, has itself stoked doubts about whether the spending is sustainable by drawing out the process of a potential $100 billion investment in OpenAI, one of its biggest customers. A recent media report said it plans to replace that commitment with a smaller $30 billion investment.

"This earnings in particular is important because people are so concerned about AI spending - whether we’re in a bubble," said Ivana Delevska, chief investment officer of Spear Invest, which holds the company’s shares in an exchange-traded fund. "Showing that earnings are not really decelerating will be pretty important."

Wall Street expects Nvidia to report that profit in the quarter ended January surged more than 62%, according to data compiled by LSEG, a slowdown from 65.3% growth in the previous quarter as it faces tougher comparisons with its previous earnings.

Revenue likely jumped more than 68% to $66.16 billion. Analysts expect Nvidia to forecast that first quarter revenue will grow another 64.4% to $72.46 billion. The company has surpassed sales expectations for the past 13 quarters, though that delta has shrunk.

RBC analysts expect the company to forecast April quarter revenue at least 3% above estimates. Spear Invest’s Delevska, an Nvidia bull, sees the company forecasting sales as much as $10 billion above estimates, expecting it to surpass market estimates by more than 13%.

STILL NO. 1

Analysts are still expecting demand for Nvidia’s pricey chips, which act as the "brains" of servers processing huge AI workloads to remain robust, and garner most of Big Tech’s massive spending to expand AI data center capacity this year.

Nvidia’s executives also hinted in January that they were discussing data center orders for next year with customers, leading several analysts to forecast the company would update a $500 billion order backlog figure it first offered in October.

The biggest constraint on Nvidia’s growth, though, could be supply chain bottlenecks that limit the speed of AI chip shipments as Nvidia and rivals are vying for space on contract chipmaker TSMC’s 3-nanometer assembly lines.

"We think Nvidia will meet expectations, but it is hard to see them delivering much upside in light of TSMC capacity," Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners wrote in a note.

But the potential return of Nvidia’s AI chip sales to China - earlier restricted due to export curbs placed by the U.S. government - could help bump up sales.

CEO Jensen Huang said last month he hopes China will allow the company to sell its powerful H200 AI chip in the country and that the license is being finalised.

Rival AMD added sales of AI chips back to its forecast for the current quarter after it received licenses to ship some of its modified processors to China.

Nvidia is expected to record adjusted gross margin of 75% in the fourth quarter, an increase of more than one percentage point from the year-ago period.

Analysts don’t expect the company to hurt from the global memory supply shortage. Nvidia’s pricing power and the likelihood of it already having locked in high-bandwidth memory allocations for the year would cushion it from the impact of rising memory prices, they said.

The dollar slipped on Monday after the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Donald Trump’s tariffs stirred fresh policy uncertainty, further fuelled by worries about a conflict with Iran.

The euro was up 0.2% against the dollar, to $1.1808, while sterling rose 0.3% to $1.3519. The greenback also weakened 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 154.745 yen.

"These initial moves appear to be knee-jerk reactions to headlines rather than true signals of fundamental change in the global economic landscape," said Invesco’s chief global market strategist Brian Levitt.

"The markets’ initial reaction to the ruling may ultimately be short-lived, given that multiple avenues can be pursued to keep tariffs in place."

The Supreme Court ruled on Friday that Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing sweeping tariffs, prompting him to lash out at the court and announce a blanket 15% levy on imports.

He also insisted that higher-tariff deals with trade partners should stay.

The uncertainty could complicate an already unsettled backdrop for forex markets, at a time when traders are dealing with shifting interest rate expectations and geopolitical jitters.

Trump’s replacement levies will run for 150 days and it is not clear if the U.S. owes importers refunds on duties already paid. The Supreme Court did not rule on that issue.

Analysts expect years of litigation and another bout of activity-crimping confusion while Trump seeks other means to replace the global tariffs more permanently.

The European Commission demanded on Sunday that the U.S. stick to a deal reached last year with the EU, which includes zero tariffs on some products such as aircraft and spare parts.

U.S. trading partners in Asia were weighing the fresh uncertainties, as were investors who have already been wrong-footed by markets’ responses to Trump’s trade levies - which have incidentally failed to close the U.S. trade deficit.

INVESTORS EYEING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

The risk of a military conflict between the U.S. and Iran has added another layer of ambiguity to financial markets.

While the longtime adversaries are scheduled to hold a third round of talks on Thursday on their nuclear dispute, Trump has ordered a huge buildup of forces in the Middle East.

"Escalating tensions in the Middle East have revived questions about geopolitical hedges and the FX impacts of a commodity price shock," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.

Iran is among the world’s top oil producers, and any strikes on it are likely to ripple across the crude markets. A potential conflict might also disrupt shipping routes as Tehran has previously threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global oil flows.

Goldman analysts said the Swiss franc was their preferred inflation hedge. The franc was up 0.3% at 0.7736 francs per dollar.