The U.S. dollar steadied Friday, but was on course for a third consecutive weekly fall after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates earlier this week, bringing borrowing costs to a near three-year low.

At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded largely unchanged at 97.995, but was set for a weekly drop of 0.7%.

The index is down more than 9% this year, on pace for its steepest annual drop since 2017.

Dollar slips after Fed meeting

The U.S. central bank lowered rates by 25 basis points this week, as expected, but remarks from Chair Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference were more balanced and less hawkish than many had anticipated.

The Fed policymakers also forecast another rate cut next year, even with members of the central bank showing divisions over December’s move.

“The bearish wind is coming not only from interest rates but also from end-of-year seasonality,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “Dollar rates saw another calibration of Fed expectations lower, with the 2y falling to 3.50% and the market pricing in 3.05% as the Fed terminal rate at the end of next year, keeping pressure on the U.S. dollar.”

The focus going forward will hinge on economic data that is still lagging from the impact of the 43-day federal government shutdown in October and November, as well as the identity of the next Fed chair.

Euro undervalued versus dollar - ING

In Europe, GBP/USD dropped 0.1% to 1.3383, falling back from its highest level since October after data showed that the U.K. economy unexpectedly contracted in October, with uncertainty ahead of the Autumn budget by Chancellor Rachel Reeves likely curtailing growth.

Data released earlier Friday by the Office for National Statistics showed that U.K. gross domestic product fell by 0.1% on a monthly basis in October, matching the drop seen during the prior month and below the 0.1% growth expected.

The Bank of England holds its final policy-setting meeting of the year next week, and is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point to 3.75% as recent data has shown inflation drifting lower.

EUR/USD edged lower to 1.1736, but the single currency was poised to register weekly gains of 0.8%, on course for a third weekly gain.

German inflation rose to 2.6% in November, confirming preliminary data, while consumer prices harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, stood at 2.3% year-on-year in October.

“Following the Fed meeting this week, the market’s attention will shift to the ECB meeting next Thursday. President Christine Lagarde will present a new forecast, which should be the first test of the current pricing of no further rate cuts, in line with our view,” ING added.

BOJ looms large

In Asia, USD/JPY gained 0.1% to 155.73, with the yen slightly lower ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting where the broad expectation is for a rate hike.

The market focus is on comments from the policymakers on how the Japanese rate path will look in 2026.

USD/CNY traded 0.1% lower to 7.0556, while AUD/USD gained 0.1% to 0.6673, set for a weekly gain of 0.5% as persistent inflationary pressures suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia could hike rates in the near-term.

Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Thursday as traders digested a mostly dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve, while silver prices retreated after marking a fresh record high earlier in the day.

Broader metal prices were also a mixed bag, after the Fed cut interest rates as expected and flagged a higher bar for future rate cuts. But the central bank also outlined plans to increase its asset buying operations, sending a dovish signal to markets.

Gold and other precious metals were hit with some profit-taking after logging strong gains in the run-up to Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,207.49 an ounce, while gold futures for March rose 0.3% to $4,235.50/oz by 00:39 ET (05:39 GMT).

Silver dips from fresh record high

Spot silver fell slightly to $61.8095/oz, after hitting a record high of $62.8895/oz earlier in the session.

The white metal had rallied over the past week on growing expectations of tighter supplies and improving demand in the coming year. Traders also bought into the metal’s safe haven appeal, which is comparable to gold but at a much lower price point.

Silver prices more than doubled so far in 2025, outpacing gold amid renewed optimism over the white metal’s prospects. Its designation as a critical mineral by the U.S. government also boosted silver’s appeal.

Gold pulls back after Fed rate cut

Gold and broader metal prices moved in a flat-to-low range on Thursday, giving up some recent gains after the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

The central bank cut interest rates by a widely expected 25 basis points, with Chair Jerome Powell signalling a higher bar for future rate cuts.

But in a move widely viewed as dovish by markets, the Fed said it will resume buying Treasury bills to increase market liquidity, at an initial pace of $40 billion per month.

The Fed’s asset buying operation, termed by many as “quantitative easing,” is expected to increase market liquidity in the coming months, and points to a dovish outlook for monetary policy. Treasury yields fell after the Fed’s announcement.

“Overall, the decision did not come as “hawkish” as some market participants had worried about. In consideration of the updated economic projections, Powell’s comments on the neutral rate, and the unchanged median dots, we maintain our base-case for one 25bp cut in 2026,” analysts at OCBC wrote in a note.

Gold had largely risen in the run-up to the Fed’s meeting, as had other metal prices. They faced some profit-taking after the central bank’s decision.

Spot platinum rose 0.2% to $1,661.18/oz after logging some overnight losses. Among industrial metals, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.4% to $11,608.45 a ton.

Futures linked to the main U.S. stock indices are hovering just above the flatline, with all eyes on a long-awaited Federal Reserve interest rate announcement. Analysts anticipate that the U.S. central bank will deliver a so-called "hawkish cut," slashing rates but putting a cap on possible reductions in the future. Still, rate markets are factoring in more easing in 2026, as President Donald Trump -- a long-time supporter of quick borrowing cost cuts -- reportedly prepares to hold a final round of interviews with candidates to become the new Fed Chair. On the earnings front, cloud-computing giant Oracle’s artificial intelligence plans will be under scrutiny when it reports after the closing bell.

1. Futures steady

U.S. stock futures pointed slightly higher on Wednesday, as investors geared up for the much-anticipated -- and potentially deeply contested -- Fed rate decision.

By 02:52 ET (07:52 GMT), the Dow futures contract was mostly unchanged, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures had both ticked up by 0.1%.

The main averages on Wall Street were mixed in the prior session, with much of the attention swirling around the start of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting.

Both the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average and benchmark S&P 500 ended lower on Tuesday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1%.

Partially weighing on sentiment was a marginal increase in U.S. job openings in October, although hiring remained subdued and resignations were around their lowest level in five years -- all potential signs of widespread economic uncertainty that some economists have suggested is linked to sweeping U.S. tariffs.

2. Fed expected to deliver "hawkish cut"

The report from the Labor Department underscored expectations that the Fed will likely cut interest rates at the conclusion of its gathering on Wednesday, but offer up a more hawkish outlook for the months ahead.

According to CME FedWatch, the chances of a quarter-point reduction in borrowing costs currently stands at roughly 88%. In theory, slashing rates -- which the Fed has already done in September and October, bringing its target range down to 3.75% to 4% -- can help spur investment and hiring, albeit at the risk of reigniting inflationary pressures.

While markets are widely confident that a rate cut is impending, media reports have said policymakers could be unusually divided over such a move, citing worries over sticky price gains and a relative dearth of fresh economic data due to a record-long government shutdown. A new summary of Fed members’ economic projections is also slated to be unveiled.

Looking to appease both sides of the policy argument, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is reportedly set to advocate for a drawdown this month and then use his post-meeting news conference to signal that the bar will be high for any further easing.

Still, establishing this high bar may be difficult. By January, officials will have had a chance to parse through more up-to-date employment and inflation numbers, and it is not clear what policy trajectory these figures could support.

3. Trump planning to start final round of Fed Chair interviews - report

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is aiming to begin the final round of interviews for the next Fed Chair in the coming days, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Citing senior administration officials, the WSJ said Trump and some of his aides are scheduled to interview former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh on Wednesday, and meet with other candidates soon.

One of those will be Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser many reports have described as the frontrunner to replace Powell when his term at the helm of the Fed ends next year.

Hassett is a close ally of Trump, who has long badgered the Fed and Powell to aggressively and rapidly lower interest rates to help boost the economy. Some economists have predicted that Hassett could advocate for such quick easing, although, because he would have just one vote in the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee, his influence may be limited.

Yet, as analysts at ING flagged in a note, rates markets have priced in "so much easing" ahead, despite projections for a so-called "hawkish cut" from the Fed today.

"Presumably, this is the Kevin Hassett effect, where his arrival at the Fed in February can throw a dovish cloak over the FOMC outlook," the ING analysts including Chris Turner and Frantisek Taborsky said.

4. Oracle to report

Oracle is set to headline the earnings calendar on Wednesday, with analysts keen for the cloud computing giant to offer more insight into its artificial intelligence ambitions.

Fueled by a partnership with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, Oracle has transformed its image this year from a smaller player in the cloud business to an essential provider of the rented computing power needed to underpin AI models.

A massive contract backlog of over $400 billion sent Oracle’s share price skyrocketing earlier this year, briefly propelling the company up to a market valuation near a trillion dollars and temporarily making co-founder Larry Ellison one of the world’s richest people.

However, that enthusiasm has since shown signs of fading, as observers fret over whether Oracle has relied too heavily on OpenAI and borrowed too much to fund a buildout of data centers.

5. Adobe earnings ahead

Adobe is also due to report its latest quarterly earnings after the closing bell on Wall Street.

Shares of the firm behind creative products like Photoshop and Acrobat have slumped by more than 21% so far this year, well underperforming the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite.

In a note to clients, analysts at Stifel said it is "no secret" that a key "overhang" for Adobe’s stock price has been the belief that AI will be a disruptive force to creative departments, "making creators more efficient by orders of magnitude and shrinking the number of addressable seats over time." A "seat" refers to a pass allowing a user to access Adobe’s apps and services.

The analysts including J. Parker Lane and Jack McShane said that catalysts to "quickly turn sentiment around" on Adobe’s stock price are "foggy," although they said a "critical and successful AI-induced strategy pivot" at the company is in its "early days."

Adobe, whose tools are widely utilized in the photography and film industries, could be particularly bolstered by positioning itself as a sort of "Switzerland" in the AI race, becoming a central hub of generative AI where users can "test, leverage, and pay for third-party model usage," the analysts said.

Futures tied to the largest U.S. stock indices point broadly higher. A major -- and possibly contentious -- Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday looms large, while traders are pouring through the details of a new twist in the potential acquisition of sections, or even all of, Warner Bros Discovery. Elsewhere, the White House says it will let Nvidia begin shipping its second-most advanced H200 processors to China, and Bitcoin edges lower.

1. Futures inch up

U.S. stock futures were hovering just above the flatline on Tuesday, as investors geared up for a much-anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision later in the week.

By 02:55 ET (07:55 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 26 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had risen by 8 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had gained 26 points, or 0.1%.

The main averages on Wall Street ended lower in the prior session, weighed down by a climb in Treasury yields, in a sign that caution may be prevailing ahead of the Fed’s upcoming announcement on Wednesday (more below).

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which tend to move inversely to prices, also gained upward impetus from a powerful earthquake which struck off the coast of Japan.

Beyond the Fed and bonds, traders were preparing for the release of earnings reports from tech giants Oracle and Broadcom this week, which come as markets have fretted over massive, and often debt-driven, spending on artificial intelligence.

In individual stocks, shares of Confluent jumped after IBM said it would buy the data-infrastructure firm, while a bearish outlook from Morgan Stanley sent Tesla’s stock price down by 3%.

2. Paramount’s hostile bid for Warner Bros Discovery

The battle in Hollywood to acquire Warner Bros Discovery and potentially reshape the media landscape in the process has taken another turn.

Just days after streaming titan Netflix was named the winner of a bidding war for the studio behind hits like "The Godfather," Paramount Skydance said it had launched a hostile bid worth $108.4 billion.

The amount would surpass the $72 billion equity deal Netflix had secure for Warner’s television, film studios and streaming assets -- and represent a 139% premium over the company’s value from before the buyout negotiations began. Notably, Paramount’s rival bid would be for all of Warner, including its cable television properties.

Warner’s board of directors said on Monday that it would review Paramount’s offer, although it did not change its position on the Netflix transaction and told the company not to take any action on the rival proposal.

3. Trump allows Nvidia to export H200 chips to China

Nvidia will now be allowed by the U.S. to export its H200 AI chips to China, while Washington will rake in a 25% fee on these sales, President Donald Trump has said.

It marks a modest departure from some export restrictions the U.S. had placed on sending cutting-edge AI processors to China. Previously, the most advanced semiconductor Nvidia was able to ship to the country was its prior-generation H20 model, reflecting long-time concern among some U.S. lawmakers around advances in China’s military and industrial capabilities.

The H200 stands to be around six times more powerful than the H20, according to Reuters, citing research from the non-partisan Institute for Progress think tank.

Still, given Beijing’s recent crackdown on domestic companies using U.S. technology, it is not yet clear if the White House’s new policy will boost sales for Nvidia.

Shares of Nvidia, a darling of the AI boom, ticked higher in extended hours U.S. trading, adding to a 1.7% rise in the stock on Monday.

4. Fed to begin two-day meeting

Attention is beginning to shift to the start of the Fed’s latest two-day policy meeting, which investors are expecting will end on Wednesday with a cut to U.S. interest rates.

Bets on a 25-basis point reduction by the U.S. central bank have increased following a slate of relatively tepid economic data which underlined pressure on the American job market, a marginal increase in consumer spending and stable -- albeit elevated -- inflation.

The chances of such a drawdown now stand at roughly 89%, CME FedWatch has shown. The Fed’s current target rate is now at 3.75% to 4%.

Still, there is an outside chance that officials choose to leave rates unchanged at that level, with some policymakers recently flagging concerns around unveiling a third cut since September during a time when fresh economic data has been scarce because of a record-long government shutdown.

Analysts have suggested that the decision may prove to be one of the most contentious in years.

5. Bitcoin edges lower

Bitcoin was showing signs of consolidation, with traders refraining from taking fresh positions ahead of the Fed gathering.

Lower interest rates typically weaken the U.S. dollar and reduce returns on cash and fixed-income assets, possibly making alternative, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin more attractive.

Amid these expectations of a prolonged cutting cycle, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency has had a rollercoaster 2025, notching fresh all-time peaks and sliding lower as debate over rates, tariffs, and AI rocked stock markets.

This has in turn underpinned a growing sense that a correlation between Bitcoin and risk-assets like stocks has strengthened.

Gold prices edged higher in Asian trading on Monday as the U.S. dollar hovered near a five-week low, supported by firm expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week.

A run of softer economic data and Friday’s inflation figures strengthened market conviction that the central bank is preparing to loosen policy, though investor caution kept bullion gains modest.

Spot gold was last up 0.3% at $4,208.55 an ounce by 03:28 ET (08:28 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for February slipped 0.3% to $4,2371.10.

Gold supported by Fed easing bets, but caution remains

Gold rose as a weaker dollar made the metal more attractive for overseas buyers.

The dollar’s retreat has been driven largely by rising confidence that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point cut at its upcoming Dec. 9–10 meeting, with traders pricing in the move after several indicators pointed to easing inflationary pressures.

Recent economic releases -- including a soft private-sector payroll report and slowing labour-market momentum -- have reinforced expectations of policy easing.

Meanwhile, the delayed U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed only a mild monthly rise and an annual rate continuing to drift lower.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion, while a subdued dollar can further enhance demand by making gold cheaper in global markets.

However, gains remained limited as investors stayed cautious. U.S. Treasury yields have edged higher in recent sessions, offsetting some of the support from a softer dollar.

Market participants also point to mixed signals from Fed policymakers in recent weeks, with some officials warning against premature easing. The divide has injected uncertainty into the policy outlook, raising the risk of an unexpected stance from the central bank.

Traders now await the Fed’s decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for confirmation that easing is underway.

Metal markets subdued

Other precious and industrial metals traded in tight ranges on Monday amid a broader cautious mood.

Silver Futures fell 0.6% to $58.708 per ounce, while Platinum Futures fell 0.3% to $1,663.60/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.3% to $11,681.20 a ton, while U.S. Copper Futures declined 0.7% to $4.67 a pound.

Gold prices edged higher in Asian trading on Monday as the U.S. dollar hovered near a five-week low, supported by firm expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week.

A run of softer economic data and Friday’s inflation figures strengthened market conviction that the central bank is preparing to loosen policy, though investor caution kept bullion gains modest.

Spot gold was last up 0.3% at $4,208.55 an ounce by 03:28 ET (08:28 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for February slipped 0.3% to $4,2371.10.

Gold supported by Fed easing bets, but caution remains

Gold rose as a weaker dollar made the metal more attractive for overseas buyers.

The dollar’s retreat has been driven largely by rising confidence that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point cut at its upcoming Dec. 9–10 meeting, with traders pricing in the move after several indicators pointed to easing inflationary pressures.

Recent economic releases -- including a soft private-sector payroll report and slowing labour-market momentum -- have reinforced expectations of policy easing.

Meanwhile, the delayed U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed only a mild monthly rise and an annual rate continuing to drift lower.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion, while a subdued dollar can further enhance demand by making gold cheaper in global markets.

However, gains remained limited as investors stayed cautious. U.S. Treasury yields have edged higher in recent sessions, offsetting some of the support from a softer dollar.

Market participants also point to mixed signals from Fed policymakers in recent weeks, with some officials warning against premature easing. The divide has injected uncertainty into the policy outlook, raising the risk of an unexpected stance from the central bank.

Traders now await the Fed’s decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for confirmation that easing is underway.

Metal markets subdued

Other precious and industrial metals traded in tight ranges on Monday amid a broader cautious mood.

Silver Futures fell 0.6% to $58.708 per ounce, while Platinum Futures fell 0.3% to $1,663.60/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.3% to $11,681.20 a ton, while U.S. Copper Futures declined 0.7% to $4.67 a pound.

U.S. stock futures traded in tight ranges Friday, with investors awaiting a key inflation report for confirmation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

At 05:40 ET (10:40 GMT), Dow Jones Futures slipped 18 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 Futures gained 11 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 104 points, or 0.4%.

The main averages closed in a mixed fashion in the prior session, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite both advancing, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged.

All three indices have managed to eke out small gains so far this week.

PCE inflation gauge in spotlight

Expectations of 25-basis point reduction at the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 meeting are running hot -- with futures now pricing in roughly an 87% probability -- on the back of recent weak labor data and broader signs of economic cooling.

Thursday’s weekly jobless claims plunged by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022, but economists cautioned that distortions tied to the Thanksgiving holiday may have exaggerated the decline.

Elsewhere, a private-sector payroll report from ADP on Wednesday showed a decline of 32,000 jobs -- the largest drop in over two and a half years, and a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas stated that announced job cuts dropped sharply in November but hiring intentions remained weak.

While the importance of price stability, the second element of the Fed’s dual mandate, has faded a little of late, all eyes are now on the release of the delayed monthly core inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), later in the session.

This is widely seen as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and a soft PCE print could further embolden rate-cut expectations.

Excluding food and energy, the underlying, or "core," PCE price index is seen holding at 2.9% in the 12 months to September and 0.2% month-on-month.

Beyond PCE, the economic calendar will feature the latest survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Netflix linked with Warner Bros Discovery’s film assets

In the corporate sector, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has entered into exclusive negotiations to purchase Warner Bros Discovery’s (NASDAQ:WBD) film and television studios as well as its prized streaming assets, media reports have said.

The streaming giant reportedly offered $28 per share for those portions of the long-time Hollywood stalwart, whose brands include HBO and DC Comics.

Should the transaction be finalized, it would transform Netflix into a media powerhouse with control over one of the most valuable content libraries in the entertainment industry.

Netflix and Warner Bros are anticipated to announce a deal imminently, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Elsewhere, Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) shares soared premarket after the cosmetics retailer topped Wall Street estimates for its fiscal third quarter and raised its full-year outlook.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) stock slumped after the cloud services and hardware company missed analysts’ revenue expectations for the fourth quarter, posting $9.68 billion versus a consensus estimate of $9.94 billion.

Crude steadies; WTI on track for weekly gain

Oil prices steadied Friday, maintaining the previous session’s gains as stalled diplomatic progress over the Ukraine war and firm expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut supported sentiment.

Brent futures slipped 0.1% to $63.24 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.1% to $59.60 a barrel.

Both contracts jumped nearly 1% on Thursday, and while Brent was mostly unchanged this week, WTI was on track for a 1.5% weekly gain - a second straight week of increase.

The lack of progress in U.S.-Russia talks to end the Ukraine war has dampened hopes that energy sanctions on Russian crude could be eased soon, keeping a risk premium in the market.

Gold prices edged down in Asian trading on Thursday, weighed by profit-taking even as investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

Spot gold was last down 0.3% at $4,191.55 an ounce by 02:28 ET (07:28 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for February delivery also slipped 0.3% to $4,219.46.

US data support Fed easing bets

The decline came even as markets priced in a nearly 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The latest data in the U.S. bolstered sentiment toward a rate cut. Private payrolls shrank by 32,000 in November according to the ADP employment report -- a notable downturn from October’s revised 47,000-job gain and far short of expectations for positive growth.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index showed modest expansion in November, but underlying data suggested cooling.

Investors now await a more definitive signal from the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, due Friday, to better confirm how aggressive any rate cut might be.

Adding to the uncertainty are media reports that the Trump administration abruptly cancelled interviews with several candidates to succeed Jerome Powell, strengthening speculation that Kevin Hassett could emerge as the next Fed chair.

Those reports have bolstered expectations of a more dovish Fed stance under new leadership, a development that could favour non-yielding assets such as gold.

Metal markets dip

Other precious and industrial metals traded lower on Thursday as investors squared positions ahead of the Fed decision.

Silver futures fell 1% to $58.00 per ounce, while Platinum Futures dropped 1.3% to $1,661.60/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged down 0.2% to $11,455.260 a ton, while U.S. Copper Futures were unchanged at $5.39 a pound.

Gold prices held largely steady in Asian trading on Wednesday, as investors waited for key U.S. economic data and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where a rate cut is broadly expected.

Spot gold last traded flat at $4,204.55 an ounce by 02:45 ET (07:45 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for gained 0.4% to $4,235.75.

The yellow metal had hit a six-week high of $4,264.29/oz earlier this week.

Fed-cut bets, dollar weakness stir bullion demand

Markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s December 9–10 meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

A dovish tilt has pushed the U.S. dollar lower -- the US Dollar Index has dipped toward its weakest levels since mid-November -- rendering gold more attractive for overseas buying.

At the same time, softening signals from U.S. economic data have reinforced speculation about rate cuts. Market participants are awaiting the release of the private-sector ADP National Employment Report for November due Wednesday and the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) scheduled for Friday — both closely watched by the Fed.

Potential Fed leadership change adds to dovish narrative

Markets are also speculating about a leadership change at the Fed. Reports suggest that Kevin Hassett, a White House economic adviser known for his support of lower interest rates, is a front-runner to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell.

That possibility has added to the anticipation of a softer monetary policy stance under new leadership, bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Metal markets subdued

Other precious and industrial metals traded in tight ranges on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the Fed decision.

Silver Futures were unchanged at $58.67 per ounce, just below record highs of $59.65. Platinum Futures fell 1.2% to $1,663.60/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange gained 0.5% to $11,255.20 a ton, while U.S. Copper Futures rose 0.7% to $5.29 a pound.

U.S. stock futures are muted, with investors eyeing a slump in Bitcoin as well as expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Bitcoin hovers around the flatline, as souring risk appetite dents the appeal of the cryptocurrency. Gold inches lower, hit by a climb in U.S. Treasury yields, while oil prices waver. Elsewhere, Marvell Technology is due to report after the closing bell, with U.S. chipmaker possibly set to provide fresh perspective on the artificial intelligence craze.

1. Futures muted

U.S. stock futures were subdued on Tuesday, after the first trading session of December featured a slide in the price of Bitcoin, a jump in Treasury yields, and tepid U.S. economic data.

By 03:17 ET (08:17 GMT), the Dow futures contract had fallen by 71 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had dipped by 12 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had declined by 58 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages declined on Monday, with sentiment clouded over by figures from the Institute for Supply Management showing that manufacturing sector activity contracted for a ninth straight month in November, suggesting ongoing pressure from sweeping tariffs.

Widespread market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month remained intact following the data. There is about an 85% chance of a quarter-point reduction at the end of the Fed’s meeting on December 9-10, according to CME FedWatch.

Meanwhile, U.S. government bond yields, which tend to move inversely to prices, rose following Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments that economic conditions were supportive of a potential borrowing cost hike in the Asian nation. Japanese and European government bonds also faltered.

At the same time, a steep slide in Bitcoin weighed on stocks exposed to the world’s largest cryptocurrency and marker of broader risk sentiment. Strategy, the biggest holder of digital assets, brought down its 2025 earnings forecast due to weakness in Bitcoin, sending shares in the company lower.

2. Bitcoin hovers around flatline after steep fall

Bitcoin oscillated around the flatline on Tuesday.

The steep selloff on Monday drove the cryptocurrency below $84,000, as a renewed bout of risk aversion hit digital assets at the start of December.

Traders sounded a glum note around Bitcoin, despite a recent rebound from levels near $80,000 late last week.

By 03:32 ET, Bitcoin was trading down 0.4% at $86,480.3. In November, the cryptocurrency shed over $18,000 -- its sharpest slump since 2021. Underscoring its volatility, the token is now down around 30% from an all-time peak reached mere weeks ago in October.

3. Gold dips

Gold prices edged lower as the uptick in U.S. Treasury yields weighed on the metal, with investors turning cautious ahead of a series of key economic indicators and the Fed’s highly anticipated policy decision.

Spot gold slipped 0.4% to $4,213.95 per ounce as of 03:40 ET after touching a six-week high in the previous session. U.S. gold futures traded 0.7% lower at $4,245.25.

The pullback came as benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hovered near a two-week high, eroding demand for non-yielding bullion and tempering optimism around growing expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut.

Despite the softer tone, the underlying sentiment toward gold remained broadly constructive. Market pricing continues to reflect firm expectations that the Fed could deliver another interest-rate cut next week, with investors betting that softening inflation and signs of cooling labor conditions will give policymakers room to ease.

4. Oil wavers

Oil prices wavered, as Ukraine peace hopes remained fragile, tensions mounted between the U.S. and Venezuela and a group of major producers lifted output levels.

Brent futures dipped 0.2% to $63.04 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.1% to $59.27 a barrel by 03:45 ET.

Both benchmarks advanced more than 1% on Monday, with the WTI contract near a two-week high.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that Kyiv’s priorities were to maintain sovereignty and ensure strong security guarantees, adding that territorial disputes remained the most complicated sticking point.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is due to brief the Russian authorities Tuesday, but an immediate end to the approaching four-year long conflict appears unlikely.

Tensions between Washington and Caracas have also become heightened after U.S. officials signalled they may tighten restrictions on Venezuela, which is seen as having the largest oil reserves in the world, including closing their airspace.

On Sunday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, reaffirmed a small oil output increase for December but also a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year due to rising fears of a supply glut.

5. Marvell to report

On a relatively light earnings calendar, U.S. chipmaker Marvell Technology will likely be the headliner.

The semiconductor group has been a major competitor of larger rival Broadcom as a provider of custom and networking chips. On Monday, media reports said it is in advanced discussion to acquire startup Celestial AI in a potential cash-and-stock deal worth multiple billions of dollars.

According to The Information, the transaction, whose total price could be higher than $5 billion, may be confirmed as soon as today. By folding in Celestial AI, Marvell is aiming to strengthen its portfolio during a time when the artificial intelligence boom has fueled a spike in demand for computing power.

When it reports after the closing bell on Tuesday, Marvell is seen posting earnings per share of $0.74, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. Shares of the company, which provided an underwhelming forecast for its data center business in August, have slid by 18% so far this year.