Oil prices extended losses on Wednesday, retreating for a third straight session as signs of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and improving U.S.-Iran relations eased fears of a prolonged disruption to Middle East energy supplies.

As of 05:39 ET (09:39 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in August fell 2% to $75.52 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also slipped 1.8% to $71.89 per barrel.

Both benchmarks settled around four-month lows in the previous session.

Market sentiment was shaped by evidence that shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is steadily recovering following a months-long conflict that had disrupted one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

Reports showed that several previously stranded supertankers have successfully exited the Gulf carrying crude cargoes, while a growing number of Qatar-linked liquefied natural gas vessels have resumed voyages through the waterway.

The movements are being viewed by traders as an early sign that regional energy flows are normalizing.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators have agreed to a 60-day roadmap aimed at reaching a broader settlement, while Washington has granted a temporary sanctions waiver allowing certain Iranian oil exports to resume through August.

The developments have raised expectations of additional crude supplies returning to global markets.

"Estimates suggest that roughly 6-7m b/d of oil moved through the strait in recent days, which is still far below pre-war flows of around 20m b/d. However, with pipeline diversions for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, we only need to see oil flows through the strait return to around 14m b/d for oil supply from the Persian Gulf to return to pre-war levels," ING analysts said in a note.

"We continue to believe that the oil sell-off is overdone, with the market still tightening. Clearly, price movements suggest the market expects a fairly rapid recovery in Persian Gulf oil supplies," they added.

Investors also assessed U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). U.S. crude inventories declined by 765,000 barrels in the week ended June 19, compared with analysts’ expectations for a larger draw.

Crude stocks at the WTI delivery hub, Cushing, fell by 1 million barrels. Gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1.2 million barrels and 1.4 million barrels, respectively.

Traders are awaiting official inventory figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday for confirmation.

Gold prices fell about 1.5% on Tuesday as a firmer U.S. dollar and rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year dented demand for the non-yielding metal, while investors also weighed progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.

Spot gold fell 1.55% to $4,126.45 an ounce by 06:42 ET (10:42 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures slipped 1.63% to $4,142.10.

The yellow metal rose 0.7% in the previous session over optimism about U.S.-Iran peace talks.

The US Dollar Index held near a 13-month high touched last week.

The greenback has drawn support from a hawkish shift at last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.

While policymakers left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, updated projections showed growing support for at least one rate increase before year-end. 

Futures markets are now pricing about a 90% probability of a rate hike in December, with some investors even anticipating more than one increase as policymakers remain focused on inflation risks. 

A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while higher interest rates reduce the appeal of bullion because it pays no interest.

Investor attention also remained on diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. The U.S. has granted a 60-day sanctions waiver on some Iranian oil sales following initial talks in Switzerland, while U.S. officials described the discussions as constructive. 

While gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical turmoil, investors have increasingly focused on the inflationary consequences of the Iran conflict.

The war drove oil prices sharply higher earlier this year, raising concerns that energy-driven inflation could force central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

Investors also await U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data due on Thursday, the Fed’s preferred price gauge.

Among other precious metals, silver prices slipped 4.3% to $62.29 per ounce, while platinum fell 2.6% to $1,639.60/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange dipped 1.2% to $13,486.33 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures declined 2.3% to $6.22 a pound.

Gold prices rose on Monday as investors monitored developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland and assessed the outlook for U.S. monetary policy following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals last week.

Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,204.34 an ounce by 05:28 ET (00:28 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures climbed 1.2% to $4,222.42.

Bullion has slipped 1.4% last week, and is coming off three straight sessions of losses.

The precious metal found support as Iranian officials reported progress in talks with the United States, helping ease fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies and weighing on crude oil prices.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Aragchi said "major progress" had been made during the quadrilateral talks in Switzerland, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan said negotiators had agreed on a roadmap toward a broader agreement.

Technical discussions are set to continue through the week.

Lower oil prices helped reduce inflation concerns, providing support to bullion by tempering expectations that energy-driven price pressures could force the Federal Reserve into a more aggressive tightening cycle.

Brent crude pared earlier gains on Monday after signs of diplomatic progress emerged despite ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, gains in gold were limited by expectations that U.S. interest rates could remain elevated.

Markets continue to digest last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers maintained a hawkish bias and kept the possibility of further rate increases on the table amid persistent inflation risks.

"While geopolitical risks should continue to provide underlying support, a higher-for-longer US rate environment may limit near-term upside," ING analysts said in a note.

The US Dollar Index held firm near a 13-month high hit last week.

Investors are now awaiting a key reading of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index later this week for fresh clues on the path of monetary policy.

Among other precious metals, silver prices rose 2.2% to $66.36 per ounce, while platinum gained 11% to $1,683.39/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.9% to $13,719.70 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures traded up 0.6% at $6.37 a pound.

Oil prices were on track for a steep weekly drop on Friday, as investors watched developments around the framework U.S.-Iran peace agreement. 

As of 04:38 ET (08:38 GMT), Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, had dipped 0.2% to $79.67 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 2.0% to $78.15 per barrel.

Both benchmarks were set to decline by more than 7% for the week. They are sitting near their lowest levels since early March, shortly after the start of the joint U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran. 

"Falling oil prices ease inflation expectations, reduce pressure on central banks, and support risky assets," analysts at UBS said in a note to clients.

Switzerland’s foreign ministry has said that talks between the U.S. and Iran due to begin in mountaintop resort of Burgenstock on Friday have been postponed, raising questions over the durability of a recently signed preliminary agreement. The discussions had been set to revolve around a dispute over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a key sticking point between Washington and Tehran.

Still, market sentiment has improved since Washington and Tehran signed the interim accord, which halts hostilities and restores commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz -- a vital waterway for around one-fifth of global oil shipments.

The agreement has raised expectations that millions of barrels of stranded crude could gradually return to international markets in the coming weeks and months.

The U.S. also said it has lifted its naval blockade on Iranian ports as the interim deal took effect. Ships carrying stranded oil began making their way out of the waterway on Thursday, according to reports.

The prospect of renewed exports has eased some of the geopolitical risk premium that had driven oil prices above $120 per barrel at the height of the crisis, although industry analysts have cautioned that a full recovery in Gulf oil flows will not be immediate.

Meanwhile, broader macroeconomic factors added pressure to oil markets. A hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve stance, including indications that interest rates could remain elevated for longer, could weigh on growth, potentially denting crude demand.

The U.S. and Iran have signed an initial deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although an agreement on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions remained to be secured.  

U.S. President Donald Trump signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran during a dinner at France’s Versailles palace on Wednesday, according to media reports and a video posted to social media by French President Emmanuel Macron. But Trump warned that attacks on Iran could restart.  

Speaking to reporters as he left the dinner, Trump, who had been in France for a Group of Seven summit, said the deal had been signed. The move was unexpected, given that a formal signing ceremony between representatives from the U.S. and Iran was slated to take place in Switzerland on Friday. The status of that ceremony is now unclear.

The document was also signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on behalf of Tehran, an image from the state-run IRNA news agency showed. Separate reports also said the accord had been electronically signed by leaders from both sides. 

The deal takes "immediate effect" and calls for a permanent halt to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, said Pakistani President Shehbaz Sharif, who has served as a mediator during recent talks. Washington and Tehran have been at war since late February, but have spent much of the past two months in a fragile ceasefire.

A 60-day deadline for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program is now underway as well. Nuclear talks are due to be held in Switzerland from Friday to Sunday, The Wall Street Journal reported.  

Trump has long made eradicating the Iranian nuclear capabilities a central aim of his war. Iran, for its part, has maintained its nuclear ambitions are peaceful, although the International Atomic Energy Agency has claimed that it is the only country to have enriched 60% of its uranium without a weapons program.

Deal reopens Strait of Hormuz

White House officials have yet to release the full text of the memorandum of understanding, leaving many of its details veiled in uncertainty. However, U.S. officials did dictate the draft agreement to journalists, the Associated Press reported, adding that a text published by the Iranians largely tracks with what the U.S. has said. 

Along with ending the fighting and kickstarting nuclear talks, the deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas which has been effectively shuttered for months. Oil prices have surged as a result, sparking fears of a wave of global inflation.

The agreement would unblock the strait without tolls for two months, although it does not eliminate of fees being imposed in the futures, the AP said. The U.S. would then waive some sanctions on Iran, the news agency added.

Still, several countries are reviewing their energy strategies due to worries that Iran could close the strait again, as it did after the start of the war, International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol flagged.

A $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran would also be established, although it was not immediately clear just what the fund will entail. Trump stressed that the U.S. would not contribute to the fund.

Lebanon’s territorial integrity was reaffirmed by the document as well. Attacks by U.S.-aligned Israel against Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in the country have been a major sticking point in peace discussions.

Gold prices held steady on Wednesday after four consecutive sessions of gains, as an interim U.S.-Iran peace agreement eased some concerns about energy-driven inflation, while investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the day.

Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $4,327.56 an ounce by 03:14 ET (07:14 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures ticked 0.2% lower to $4,347.26.

The precious metal advanced in the last four sessions after rebounding from recent multi-month lows near $4,000/oz.

Sentiment was supported by optimism surrounding a U.S.-Iran accord aimed at ending hostilities in the Middle East.

The agreement, which includes provisions allowing Iran to resume oil exports and extends a ceasefire while negotiations continue, has helped push crude prices sharply lower and eased fears of a renewed inflation shock.

Lower energy prices have prompted investors to scale back expectations for tighter monetary policy, a positive development for non-yielding bullion.

Gold has benefited from the resulting decline in the U.S. dollar, with the US Dollar Index hovering near a 10-day low.

The market’s focus is now squarely on the Federal Reserve’s first policy announcement under Chair Kevin Warsh.

The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but investors will closely scrutinize updated economic projections and the so-called "dot plot" for clues on the future path of policy.

Markets are particularly sensitive to any signal on whether policymakers still see scope for easing later this year.

A hawkish tone from the Fed could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, potentially capping gold’s recent rally.

Underlying demand for gold also remains robust. A recent World Gold Council survey showed that 45% of central bank reserve managers expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year, underscoring continued interest in the metal as a portfolio diversifier and geopolitical hedge.

Among other precious metals, silver prices rose 0.5% to $70.34 per ounce, while platinum fell 1.1% to $1,788.72/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.3% to $13,833.33 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures rose 1% to $6.54 a pound.

U.S. stock index futures rose sharply early Monday after Washington and Tehran confirmed they had reached a preliminary peace deal to end their war and reopen key shipping lanes in the Middle East. 

S&P 500 Futures jumped by 89 points, or 1.2%, by 05:56 ET (09:56 GMT). Nasdaq 100 Futures surged 582 points, or 2%, while Dow Jones Futures 418 points, or 0.8%.

Wall Street was set for a strong open on Monday after positive, tech-fueled rallies in European and Asian markets. 

The main averages advanced to finish the prior week, buoyed by the hopes of an imminent agreement between Washington and Tehran as well as a spike in shares of SpaceX after their record-setting public debut. Even as some analysts highlighted worries around SpaceX’s fundamentals, the stock jumped above its IPO price of $135 a share, giving Elon Musk’s reusable rocket group a value of more than $2 trillion and making it one of the largest publicly listed U.S. firms.

Other space-industry names, such as Rocket Lab and Planet Labs, rallied in the wake of the flotation.

U.S.-Iran peace deal confirmed, to be signed on Friday 

The U.S. and Iran have reached an interim peace deal which would end a war that has dragged on for more than three months, threatening the global economy in the process.

A memorandum of understanding is due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, according to Pakistan, which has served as a frequent mediator during the conflict.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the two nations have "declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts." That includes Lebanon, Sharif said. Concerns had surrounded the outlook for the deal after U.S.-allied Israel carried out attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon over the weekend, leading to a stern rebuke of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by President Donald Trump.

Neither the U.S. nor Iran has offered specific details, while Tehran has indicated that the deal will not be implemented until it is signed.

Trump said that the agreement would halt hostilities and unblock the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway off Iran’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flowed prior to the outbreak of the war in late February. 

In a social media post, Trump claimed the strait would be reopened on Friday, saying the delay was due to mine-clearing operations. He added that a longstanding American naval blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted as well.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell in the wake of the announcement, easing some worries over a prolonged energy-induced inflation spike fueling a hawkist pivot by global central banks. Gold prices, which tend to perform better in low-rate environments gained, while the U.S. dollar weakened against a basket of currency peers. 

U.S. government bond yields, which typically move inversely to prices, dropped, further bolstering equities.  

Fed decision later this week 

Investors are now focused an upcoming two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting, which is due to conclude on Wednesday.

Bets have grown that the Fed will keep rates steady after the gathering, and possibly opt to lift borrowing costs later in 2026. Meanwhile, wagers at the beginning of the year that the Fed would roll out rate cuts in 2026 have been all but eliminated, especially after recent data points showed an acceleration in inflation.

"[I]t’s still very likely that the easing bias will be removed from the FOMC statement," analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note, referring to the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

But they argued that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is stuck between faster price growth and Trump’s insistence of aggressive rate cuts, "could put his thumb on the scale during the [post-decision] press conference and tip things in a dovish direction by reiterating" that several Fed members have indicated rate reductions would be warranted should the Iran conflict be resolved soon.

Gold prices edged higher on Friday, but remained on track for a weekly decline, as investors gauged hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal that could relieve some fears of an energy-induced inflation surge.

By 05:29 ET (09:29 GMT), spot gold had risen by 0.2% to $4,220.27 an ounce, yet was on track to dip by more than 2% over the past week. Gold futures jumped by 3.1% to $4,241.51 an ounce.

A proposed peace deal between the U.S. and Iran would include a commitment from Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a promise from Washington to lift oil sanctions, according to reports in Iranian state media.

Iran’s Mehr news agency said that a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the U.S. would also include the release of frozen Iranian funds, adding that final negotiations will focus on nuclear and economic issues. However, discussions about Iran’s missile program will be excluded, Mehr reported.

The draft requires finalization by relevant authorities, the report said.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were last down by 4.3% at $86.47 a barrel. The contract slipped below $90 a barrel on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that an agreement to end the war in Iran, now in its fourth month, may be close.

While Brent oil remains well above pre-war levels, a decline may help ease some fears of an energy-driven inflation spike leading to central bank interest rate hikes. An elevated interest rate environment may not bode well for non-yielding assets like gold.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week, but markets anticipate that it will raise borrowing costs before the end of the year. Bets at the beginning of 2026 that the Fed would embark on a rate-cutting cycle have been all but eradicated as well.

“We are lowering our forecasts to reflect the expected delayed start of Fed rate cuts to 2027 and the resulting reduction in expected ETF gold demand in 2026. The environment for the yellow metal will likely remain challenging in the near term, but we continue to see a constructive outlook over the medium term as Fed rate cuts moderate real rates and the U.S. dollar," analysts at UBS said in a note.

This week, the European Central Bank became the first major central bank to increase rates, with officials underlining a need to corral price pressures linked to the Iran war.

Elsewhere, gold was supported by a weakening in the U.S. dollar, potentially making bullion more attractive for overseas buyers. The dollar has been bolstered throughout the war, underpinned by safe-haven demand and the belief that the U.S. economy, a major energy exporter, may be relative insulated from an energy shock.

U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday, buoyed by reports that the U.S. and Iran have held peace talks despite trading recent strikes, while technology shares eyed a tentative recovery. 

S&P 500 Futures rose 56 points, or 0.8%, by 05:59 ET (09:59 GMT), Nasdaq 100 Futures jumped 333 points, or 1.1%, and Dow Jones Futures rose 392 points, or 0.8%. 

Futures had fallen earlier on Wednesday after sharp losses on Wall Street -- driven by hot U.S. consumer price growth and ongoing tensions in the Middle East -- battered sentiment. Heavyweight technology stocks tumbled amid growing uncertainty over artificial intelligence spending and higher interest rates, although gains in Nasdaq futures pointed to some recovery in the sector. 

U.S.-Iran carry on talks despite fresh strikes - report

The U.S. and Iran carried on negotiations over a potential peace deal overnight, even after they launched a exchange of air attacks for a second straight day, CNN reported.

Meanwhile, Washington and Tehran are still in talks over a preliminary deal which would includes a mechanism to unfreeze Iranian funds, Reuters reported, citing Iranian sources. Efforts to forge such an agreement have intensified, the report added.

Yet uncertainty has continued to surround the discussions, with President Donald Trump warning of more action against Iran if the country did not immediately accept a peace deal.

The U.S. struck multiple military targets in Iran through late-Wednesday and early-Thursday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement, describing the attacks as “self-defense” after the downing of an American helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz this week.

Iran retaliated by launching strikes against several U.S. military bases and allies in the Gulf, with explosions heard across Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, according to unconfirmed media reports. Iran also said it had blocked all ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a claim that CENTCOM denied. The latest hostilities come after the U.S. and Iran intermittently traded strikes over the past two weeks amid a flare-up in broader tensions in the region.

"[W]hile the rhetoric from both sides is heated, it doesn’t appear that a full resumption of hostilities is occurring," analysts at Vital Knowledge said.

Iran also traded strikes with Israel over the latter’s hostilities against Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. The Israeli military on early Thursday warned of projectile launches from Lebanon.

Oracle slides as AI spending target overshadows earnings

Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) slid in aftermarket trade on Wednesday evening after the cloud company forecast capital expenditures of up to $95 billion in fiscal 2027, much higher than Wall Street expectations of about $68 billion.

The firm also said it will raise $40 billion in debt and equity financing in 2027, largely overshadowing stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings.

Oracle has been aiming to position itself as a major data center provider for customers such as OpenAI. But its forecast for outsized spending in 2027 comes amid some doubts over the long-term sustainability of the AI trade – a notion that had sparked a broad rotation out of tech over the past week.

Uncertainty over Oracle and AI spending was furthered by a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI was planning to drastically cut its AI prices, as the ChatGPT-maker faces heightened competition from rival Anthropic. 

Declines in tech sector shares, especially in big-name chipmakers, have hit Wall Street in recent sessions. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% on Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite slid nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9% -- its worst day of 2026 so far. 

Tech was also pressured by fears of higher interest rates, which were exacerbated by an acceleration in U.S. consumer price growth in May. Bets that the Federal Reserve will lift rates by the end of the year were bolstered. A separate gauge of producer price gains, due out later today, may provide further insight into inflation.

Elsewhere, investors are focused this week on the possible $1.75 trillion listing of SpaceX on Friday, which stands to be the biggest flotation in history. 

Gold prices fell for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, as fresh U.S. strikes on Iran kept energy-driven inflation concerns in focus.

Spot gold slipped 1.5% to $4,195.85 per ounce by 03:26 ET (07:26 GMT), reaching its lowest level since March 23.

U.S. Gold Futures also dropped 1.6% to $4,217.75, as investors reduced exposure ahead of key U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data due later on Wednesday.

Washington launched new strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday following the downing of a U.S. military helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting fears of broader disruptions to global energy supplies.

Iran said on Wednesday that it had targeted U.S. bases in Jordan and several Gulf states in response to the U.S. attacks.

Oil prices rose around 1% on Wednesday, adding to concerns that higher fuel costs could feed into inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

The prospect of persistent inflation has prompted investors to scale back expectations for U.S. rate cuts. 

More than 70% of market participants are pricing in a Fed rate hike by December.

Higher interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding bullion by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.

Treasury yields remained near multi-month highs while the dollar stayed firm ahead of the inflation report.

The U.S. Dollar Index traded flat near a two-month peak hit earlier this week.

Investors are closely watching the CPI data for signs of whether inflationary pressures are accelerating. Economists expect annual consumer inflation to rise to around 4.2% in May, which would mark the highest reading since April 2023 and could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive policy stance.

Among other precious metals, silver prices fell 1.4% to $64.42 per ounce, while platinum dropped 3% to $1,678.05/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged down 0.2% to $13,548.33 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures fell 0.3% to $6.30 a pound.