LONDON (Reuters) - British house prices dropped unexpectedly last month for the first time since March although they finished the year higher than in December 2023, figures from mortgage lender Halifax showed on Tuesday.

Halifax, part of Lloyds Banking Group (LON:LLOY), Britain's biggest mortgage lender, said house prices fell 0.2% in December after a 1.2% rise in November, and were 3.3% higher on the year - lower than the 4.2% rise forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Economists had forecast house prices would rise 0.4% in December alone.

While rival mortgage lender Nationwide reported a 0.7% monthly house price rise for December, Bank of England data showed mortgage approvals - a leading indicator for prices - had fallen to their lowest since August in November.

Halifax said house prices in the second half of 2024 had been boosted by falls in mortgage rates, ongoing real wage growth and some buyers seeking to purchase ahead of an increase in property purchase taxes in April 2025.

"Providing employment conditions don't deteriorate markedly from a more recent softening, buyer demand should hold up relatively well and, taking all this into account, we're continuing to anticipate modest house price growth this year," Halifax's head of mortgages, Amanda Bryden, said.

By Michael Kahn and Anna Koper

PRAGUE/WARSAW (Reuters) - Ukrainian businesses that set up or expanded in central Europe after Russia's 2022 invasion are shifting their focus from mainly refugee to local customers as they become more established, with some now eyeing a move further west.   

As the war closed off opportunities at home and to the east, including Russia, Ukrainian-owned businesses sprang up in neighbouring countries, initially targeting their displaced compatriots with food, drink and services. 

In Poland, which has a Ukrainian population swelled by the war to more than 1.5 million at current estimates, Ukrainians opened every tenth new business in 2024, according to Polish business associations and economists.

Andrii Halytskyi's Lviv Croissants now has 12 shops in Poland after launching there two years ago. It opened its first Czech outlet in October, part of what its founder says is a strategy to build a geographically diverse business by expanding westward and beyond the diaspora.

"While the Ukrainian refugee community in Europe is significant, relying solely on this customer base is not a sustainable long-term strategy," Halytskyi told Reuters. 

Strong cultural similarities with Ukraine have helped make Poland a natural base for Ukrainian businesses. But many are also looking beyond emerging Europe's largest economy to a much bigger pool of customers.

"Companies initially view Poland as a bridge or springboard to European Union markets," said Dariusz Szymczycha, first vice president of the Polish-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce. 

"They want to learn ... the reality, standards, regulations and rules of operating in the European Union."

The Piana Vyshnia chain of bars is themed around a traditional cherry liqueur from Ukraine but sees local customers as its main target, founder Andriy Khudo told Reuters.  

His !FЕST restaurant group has grown the brand - known as Drunken Cherry in English - to 15 locations in Poland and nine in other Baltic and eastern European countries, ramping up westward expansion since February 2022, Khudo said. 

The group plans to open in Germany, Switzerland and France in 2025 and relaunch a venue in London, he said, adding that the bars are attracting new customers and are profitable. 

"Before the war we focused on Ukraine because our business was developing there so quickly. But the war kicked us to look more west because of the risk in Ukraine," Khudo said. 

REFUGEE BOOST 

Although Ukraine's economy grew in 2023 and is likely to expand in 2024, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko told Reuters in November it was still only at 78% of its size before Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.  

With no end to the conflict in sight, businesses like Khudo's have had to look elsewhere - an economic flip for nearby countries which have also seen labour market strains eased by the arrival of Ukrainian workers.  

A Deloitte report in March 2024 estimated that refugees from Ukraine would add up to 1.1 percent to Poland's GDP in 2023 and as much as 1.35 percent longer-term.

"When they come to Poland, for example, whether to work or set up businesses, this is an additional stimulus from the economic perspective for consumption and improving the supply of labour," Andrzej Kubisiak, deputy director of the Polish Economic Institute, told Reuters. 

Another Ukrainian restaurateur, Olga Kopylova, told Reuters she had no plans before the war to take her Chornomorka brand abroad but now has three outlets named Czarnomorka in Poland and two apiece in Bratislava and Vienna.

Coffee chain Aroma Kava moved to Poland in 2022 and has since expanded to 10 locations, while Ukrainian ice cream and frozen products maker Three Bears bought Polish company Nordis.

Poland is now the second most important market for digital entertainment provider MEGOGO which has grown by appealing to local residents, mainly through family programming, co-founder Volodymyr Borovyk told Reuters. It entered Poland and Romania - emerging Europe's two most populous countries - in 2023.

"The healthy Polish market not only motivates us but also encourages other Ukrainian companies to enter this market with products tailored specifically for Polish consumers," he said.

At the newly-opened Lviv Croissants branch in Prague, the staff served a mix of tourists, locals and Ukrainians who sipped coffees and nibbled on sandwiches as they took a break from the holiday rush.

"This was my first time eating here, but for me it is like a feeling of home," 20-year old Ukrainian student Tatiana Melnyk said.  

Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks rose on Tuesday as regional technology stocks tracked overnight gains on Wall Street, while Chinese markets lagged after the U.S. added two major tech companies to a blacklist. 

Regional markets took positive cues from a strong overnight session on Wall Street, as technology stocks rebounded from a weak start to the year. Artificial intelligence darling NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) was a standout performer, hitting a record high in anticipation of an address by CEO Jensen Huang at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. 

U.S. stock index futures were mildly positive in Asian trade, with focus remaining on key nonfarm payrolls data due later in the week. 

But despite Tuesday’s gains, most Asian markets were still nursing a weak start to 2025, amid persistent concerns over U.S. interest rates remaining high for longer. 

Asia tech stocks track US gains; Nvidia in focus 

Tech-heavy bourses were the best performers in Asia on Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index surging 2.4%, while South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.9%. 

Japan’s TOPIX index rose 1%. 

Tech stocks surged tracking their U.S. peers, which were buoyed by a mix of hype over artificial intelligence, as well as some bargain buying after clocking losses through December. 

Nvidia’s Huang is widely expected to provide more details on the firm’s upcoming Blackwell AI chips, while any comments on AI demand will also be closely watched.

AI has been a key point of support for the tech sector over the past year, with chipmakers benefiting from increased capital expenditure on the sector, while software firms raced to provide their own AI offerings. 

Chinese stocks lag after Tencent, CATL added to US blacklist 

China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes moved in a tight range, while Hong Kong’s Hang Sengg fell 0.5%.

The Hang Seng was weighed chiefly by losses in internet giant Tencent Holdings Ltd (HK:0700) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) battery supplier Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (SZ:300750), which both lost over 5%. 

The two firms were added to a U.S. blacklist of companies with ties to the Chinese military. While inclusion in the blacklist does not entail any direct restrictions on the firms, it provides hurdles in doing business with U.S. companies- which represent a major market for both Tencent and CATL. 

The new blacklist additions also raised concerns over souring trade ties between the world’s biggest economies, which are set to worsen amid increased trade tariffs under incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump on Monday denied reports that his administration will impose less strict trade tariffs than initially signaled. 

A resurgent trade war bodes poorly for China and other Asian economies. 

Broader Asian markets were mostly positive. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2%, while Singapore’s Straits Times index rose 0.1%. 

Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index pointed to a mildly positive open, after the index plummeted 1.6% on Monday. Weak earnings from index heavyweights HDFC Bank Ltd (NS:HDBK) and Dabur India Ltd. (NS:DABU) eroded sentiment, especially ahead of more earnings from major Indian firms, which are due in the coming days. 

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures rose on Monday evening after a rally in technology shares boosted Wall Street indexes, with focus now turning to an upcoming address by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. 

Futures were upbeat after gains in tech stocks helped Wall Street somewhat recover from a sluggish start to the new year. Nvidia also hit a record high in anticipation of Huang’s address.

S&P 500 Futures rose 0.1% to 6,028.75 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.2% to 21,782.25 points by 18:17 ET (23:17 GMT). Dow Jones Futures rose 0.1% to 43,021.0 points. 

Nvidia hits record high ahead of Huang speech 

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 0.5% in aftermarket trade following a 3.4% rally during Monday’s session, where the stock also briefly hit a record high of $152.15. 

Focus was squarely on an upcoming address by CEO Jensen Huang at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, due at 18:30 PT (02:30 GMT). 

Anticipation of Huang’s address helped Nvidia’s shares break out of a trading range seen for a bulk of late-2025, as investors awaited more potential insight into the company’s upcoming Blackwell artificial intelligence chips. 

Huang is also expected to announce Nvidia’s next-generation line of PCE gaming cards.

Nvidia gained around $2 trillion in market capitalization through 2024, as the company further cemented its position as the premiere maker of advanced AI chips. 

The company also acts as a bellwether for the broader tech sector, given its prevalence in the fast-growing AI industry. 

Trump comments temper optimism 

Beyond tech, gains in stock markets were somewhat tempered by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump denying media reports that his administration will pursue a less aggressive tariff regime than previously feared. 

Trump denied a Washington Post report that his administration will only target certain sectors in imposing trade tariffs, instead of the broad tariffs promised by Trump during his campaigning. 

Uncertainty over Trump’s policies had also weighed on Wall Street in the beginning of the year, given that he is widely expected to enact expansionary and protectionist policies that could underpin inflation and disrupt global trade.

Tech buoys Wall St after weak start to 2025 

Wall Street indexes were buoyed by a broader rally in tech stocks on Monday, which helped them recoup some of their losses from late-December and early-January. 

Tech giants such as Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) surged between 1% and 5%, and were mostly upbeat in afterhours trade. 

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 5,976.90 points on Monday, while the NASDAQ Composite surged 1.3% to 19,867.81 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, falling less than 0.1% to 42,706.56 points. 

But Wall Street indexes were still nursing losses amid persistent anxiety over a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, amid sticky inflation and labor market strength. 

Nonfarm payrolls data due this Friday is set to offer more cues.

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Housing is famously cramped in the Asian financial hub of Hong Kong, thanks to sky-high property prices, but a single toilet and kitchen shared by four families would make for a challenging home situation anywhere.

"It's so small here; it's really inconvenient to live in," said retired 60-year-old Xiao Bo, as she sat on her bed, eating home-made dumplings off a folding table in a tiny space adorned with pink wallpaper and a rack of colourful tote bags.

Single and opting to give only her first name, she said she had nothing but "painful" memories of the partitioned, cluttered walk-up where she has lived for three years, but could not afford a better flat.

(For photoessay, please click on )

More than 200,000 people in Hong Kong live in sub-divided flats like hers, often cloaked in a musty odour and plagued by bedbugs during sweltering summers.

The former British colony, ranked as the world's most unaffordable city for a 14th consecutive year by survey company Demographia, has one of the world's highest rates of inequality.

In October, Hong Kong vowed to adopt new laws setting minimum space and safety norms for sub-divided flats, where each resident lives in an area of about 65 sq ft (6 sq m) on average, or half the size of the parking space for a sedan.

"We just want to regulate ... so the market will be providing flats of what we think will be a reasonable and liveable standard," its leader, John Lee, said at the time.

(Reuters) - A winter storm brought snow, ice and freezing temperatures to a broad swath of the U.S. on Sunday, with some 60 million people across more than a dozen states from Kansas to New Jersey under winter weather warnings and advisories.

The storm was moving toward the mid-Atlantic, where Washington, D.C. was bracing for heavy snow and bitter cold on Monday, the same day the U.S. Congress is set to meet and formally certify Republican Donald Trump's election as president.

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson told Fox News on Sunday the weather would not prevent lawmakers from carrying out their duties. But federal offices in the nation's capital will be closed, the Office of Personnel Management announced.

Kansas and parts of northwestern Missouri were enduring blizzard conditions, the National Weather Service said. Roadways were blanketed in snow and ice, and officials urged residents to avoid travel.

Much of the main artery in Kansas, Interstate 70, was closed throughout Sunday due to heavy snow and ice.

In Missouri, the state police were sweeping a shut-down stretch of more than 50 miles on Interstate 29, searching for stranded motorists. As of late Sunday afternoon, troopers had responded to nearly 600 stranded drivers and 285 crashes, the agency said on X.

Total (EPA:TTEF) snowfall of between six and 12 inches (15 to 30 cm) was expected from southern Ohio to Washington. Hundreds of schools announced in advance that they would not open on Monday due to the storm, including public schools in Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Washington and Philadelphia.

In northern Kentucky and southern West Virginia, freezing rain and sleet will produce "hazardous ice accumulations," the service said. The back end of the storm system, meanwhile, was producing severe thunderstorms capable of spinning off tornadoes in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

The storm forced the cancellation of hundreds of flights, including more than 275 in both Kansas City and St. Louis, according to the aviation tracking website FlightAware.

Governors in several states, including Kansas, Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia and Virginia, declared states of emergency.

The storm will move offshore on Monday night, but bone-chilling arctic air is set to move in behind it, with daytime temperatures on Monday and Tuesday predicted to be 10 to 20 degrees F below average from the Great Plains to the East Coast, according to the weather service.

Investing.com-- Gold prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Monday, coming under pressure from a stronger dollar as expectations of a slower pace of monetary easing kept traders largely biased towards the greenback. 

The yellow metal has been steadily losing ground since late-December, after the Federal Reserve warned that it will cut interest rates at a slower pace in 2025. The dollar’s recent rally was sparked largely by this notion.

Hawkish comments from some Fed officials over the weekend also pressured gold.

Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,635.81 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in February fell 0.3% to $2,646.51 an ounce by 00:12 ET (05:12 GMT). 

Hawkish Fedspeak dents gold, boosts dollar

Losses in gold and strength in the dollar came after two Fed officials warned that the bank’s fight against inflation was not over, potentially heralding a more hawkish outlook for interest rates. 

The greenback steadied in Asian trade after racing to its strongest level since November 2022.

Governor Adriana Kugler and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both said that the central bank was still not declaring victory over inflation, and was closely watching the labor market for any signs of weakness.

Sticky inflation and a strong labor market give the Fed less impetus to cut interest rates. Focus this week is on upcoming nonfarm payrolls data for more cues on interest rates. 

Other precious metals also retreated on Monday. Platinum futures fell 0.4% to $942.0 an ounce, while silver futures fell slightly to $30.055 an ounce. 

Among industrial metals, March copper futures fell 0.3% to $4.0655 a pound. The red metal was pressured by uncertainty over more stimulus measures in China, with focus turning to upcoming inflation data this week for more cues on the world’s biggest copper importer. 

Goldman Sachs pushes forward $3,000 gold price forecast 

Goldman Sachs on Monday said it now expects gold prices to hit $3,000 an ounce by mid-2026, after the yellow metal did not hit the price target by end-2024. 

The investment bank expects gold to end 2025 at around $2,900 an ounce, and expects $3,000 to come later amid slower interest rate cuts by the Fed.

Gold prices gained about 27% in 2024, as they benefited from the Fed cutting interest rates by 1% in the second half of the year. 

The yellow metal also saw robust safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia. 

But gold lost ground towards the end of the year, pressured by a more hawkish Fed outlook for 2025. 

Investing.com-- China’s services sector expanded in December at the fastest pace in seven months supported by higher domestic demand, although export businesses declined, private purchasing managers index data showed on Wednesday.

The Caixin services PMI came in at 52.2 in December, compared to expectations for a print of 51.4. The reading was higher than the 51.5 seen in November.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, with services activity now expanding at its fastest pace since May 2024.

"According to service providers, promotional efforts and better underlying demand supported the latest increase in new sales. Sales growth was notably supported by higher domestic demand as new export business declined for the first time since August 2023 amid softening foreign interest," the Caixin report stated.

Recent PMI data showed the manufacturing sector expanded at a slower than expected pace in December, implying the effect of stimulus measures was waning. 

China has committed to implementing more proactive fiscal stimulus measures and adopting moderately looser monetary policies in 2025.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose steep import tariffs against the country when he takes office on January 20- a scenario that could herald more economic pressure. 

Beijing is expected to roll out more targeted, fiscal stimulus in response to Trump’s tariffs this year. Recent reports suggested that the country will lower interest rates to ramp up fiscal spending, in order to support economic growth.

"Sentiment in the Chinese service sector remained positive at the end of 2024 as firms were generally hopeful that business development efforts and supportive government policies can support sales growth in 2025," the report said.

By David Milliken

LONDON (Reuters) - British companies are the gloomiest since former Prime Minister Liz Truss' September 2022 "mini-budget", following unexpectedly large tax increases in the new Labour government's Oct. 30 budget, a business survey showed.

The British Chambers of Commerce, who conduct the largest private-sector survey of British firms, said businesses were the least happy about taxation since they started asking about this in 2017, while confidence about sales over the next 12 months was the lowest since late 2022.

"The worrying reverberations of the Budget are clear to see in our survey data. Businesses confidence has slumped in a pressure cooker of rising costs and taxes," BCC Director General Shevaun Haviland said.

Finance minister Rachel Reeves announced 40 billion pounds ($50 billion) of tax rises on Oct. 30, the most of any budget since 1993. The bulk of this will come through higher social security charges paid by employers.

While the Bank of England estimates that higher public spending will temporarily boost growth next year, a big question for policymakers is whether the tax rises lead mostly to lower employment, higher prices or reduced profits or investment.

The BCC said 55% of firms planned to raise prices, up from 39% the quarter before, while 24% intended to cut investment, up from 18% previously. It plans to release survey data on recruitment intentions on Jan. 14.

The downbeat mood echoes that in other surveys of businesses from S&P Global, the Institute of Directors and the Confederation of British Industry.

Britain's economy grew solidly in the first half of 2024 as it recovered from a shallow recession in late 2023, before stagnating in the third quarter of last year.

The Bank of England has forecast zero growth for the fourth quarter of 2024 and an expansion of 1.5% in 2025.

The BCC survey of 4,800 businesses, mostly with fewer than 250 staff, took place from Nov. 11 to Dec. 9.

($1 = 0.8057 pounds)

Investing.com -- It’s set to be a busy week with U.S. jobs data, Federal Reserve meeting minutes and several Fed speakers along with inflation data out of the Eurozone and China. Meanwhile U.S. markets are due to remain closed on Thursday in honor of former President Jimmy Carter. Here's your look at what's happening in markets for the week ahead.

1. Jobs report

Friday’s employment report is expected to show that the U.S. economy added 154,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

Labor market data has been volatile in recent months amid disruptions from strikes and hurricanes. November data showed growth of 227,000 jobs, rebounding from a tepid rise in October.

With investors barely pricing in two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year the data is likely to remain consistent with a gradually slowing, but still solid labor market.

Ahead of Friday’s report, investors will get other updates on the strength of the labor market. The U.S. is to release monthly data on JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, followed by a data on private sector hiring and the weekly report on initial jobless claims on Wednesday, which is being released a day early ahead of Thursday’s National Day of Mourning.

2, Fed minutes, speakers

On Wednesday the Fed is to release the minutes of its December meeting where it delivered its third straight 25-basis point rate cut in what Chair Powell described as a "closer call".

“Given Powell’s description of the meeting and the dissent from Cleveland’s Hammack, we suspect that the minutes will detail a divergence in views on the appropriate action at the meeting,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note. “We will also look for clues about how officials reflected upcoming changes to fiscal, trade and immigration policies in their forecasts.”

Investors will also get a chance to hear from several Fed officials during the week with speeches from Governors Cook and Waller on Monday and Wednesday, respectively likely to be the highlights. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker are also due to deliver remarks.

3. Stock markets

Stocks faltered at the end of December and the start of January, after a strong year. The benchmark S&P 500 closed out 2024 with a 23% rise and posted its biggest two-year gain since 1997-1998.

Prospects for a third straight standout year hinge in part on the strength of the economy, with labor market data among the most important reads into the economy's health.

The data could also help clarify the outlook for interest rates after the Fed last month rattled markets by pivoting to a more cautious outlook for rate cuts as it lifted its forecast for expected inflation in 2025.

Investors are wary of the jobs report revealing an overly strong economy, with a revival of inflation under the incoming Trump administration seen as one of the key risks to markets early in the year.

4. Inflation data

Expectations for additional rate cuts from the European Central Bank will be tested by Tuesday's December flash Eurozone inflation data. German and French inflation numbers are due Monday.

Any signs that inflation is easing further would give the ECB scope to loosen policy and support a struggling economy.

Meanwhile, China is to release consumer and producer price inflation data on Thursday. The annual rate of inflation was almost flat in December while PPI was in contraction territory, indicating that government stimulus measures have still not succeeded in bolstering demand.

5. Oil prices

Oil prices ended last week higher as the demand outlook was boosted by cold weather in Europe and the U.S. along with additional economic stimulus flagged by China.

Brent posted a 3.3% weekly gain, while crude oil WTI futures posted a 5% increase.

Oil prices look likely to remain supported amid expected increased demand for heating oil after forecasts for colder weather in some regions.

Data last week showing a decline in U.S. crude inventories also underpinned prices.

But oil’s gains look likely to be held in check by the stronger dollar which has strengthened on expectations that the U.S. economy will continue to outperform its peers globally this year and that U.S. interest rates will stay relatively higher.