BEIJING (Reuters) - The value of China's imports and exports with Russia reached 1.74 trillion yuan ($237 billion) in 2024, a record high, Chinese customs data showed on Monday, as the two countries' leaders hailed bilateral relations.

China-Russia yuan-denominated trade value grew 2.9% in 2024 from 2023, according to the data by China's General Administration of Customs. The growth was significantly slower than the 32.7% gain in 2023.

Bilateral trade was disrupted by payment hurdles last year after the United States intensified sanctions on banks dealing with Russia, Reuters previously reported.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in December that the primary challenge to Russia-China trade is mutual payment settlements.

Chinese shipments to Russia in 2024 grew 5.0% in yuan terms from a year earlier, down sharply from the 53.9% gain in 2023, the customs data showed.

Imports from Russia rose 1% last year, slowing from a 18.6% expansion in 2023.

In dollar terms, China-Russia two-way trade value reached $244.8 billion, compared with $240.1 billion in 2023, Chinese customs data showed.

In an exchange of New Year greetings with Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Dec. 31 that China and Russia have always moved forward "hand in hand" on the right path.

Russia's state-run RIA news agency quoted Moscow's ambassador to Beijing as saying in December that Xi will visit Russia in 2025.

Putin also said last year that bilateral relations had reached a level never seen before, lauding their positive nature.

In December alone, China's exports to Russia grew 6.4% in yuan terms, reversing November's drop, but imports from Russia shrank 4.3% last month.

($1 = 7.3317 Chinese yuan renminbi)

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Lithium prices are expected to stabilise in 2025 after two years of steep declines as shuttered mines and robust electric vehicle sales in China soak up an oversupply, although the potential for mines to reopen may cap gains, analysts and traders said.

A nearly 86% plunge in prices of the EV battery metal over the past two years from its peak in November 2022 forced companies to mothball mines across the world. But market participants say those closures mean buoyant demand should outpace supply this year as China intensifies policy support to boost sales in the world's largest EV market.

The global lithium supply glut is predicted to shrink by half to around 80,000 tons equivalent of lithium carbonate (LCE) from nearly 150,000 last year, according to Antaike, China's state-owned commodity data provider.

"We expect to see a price recovery for lithium in 2025 as the curtailments seen in 2024, and the possibility of further curtailments, will significantly reduce the market surplus," said Cameron Hughes, battery markets analyst at CRU Group, referring to mine closures without giving further details.

China doubled EV subsidies in July and more than 5 million cars sold as of mid-December had benefited from the incentives.

China's EV subsidies contributed to a lithium price rally late last year, and should continue supporting prices in 2025, three analysts and two traders said.

"The uptick in lithium trade business in the fourth quarter of 2024 can be undeniably attributed to the policy of providing subsidies," a buyer at a mid-sized cathode material plant in China said on condition of anonymity as the buyer was not authorized to speak to media.

Any improvement in prices is likely to be felt towards the end of 2025 as inventories are used up and buyers return to the spot market, said David Merriman, research director at metals research company Project Blue.

Project Blue expects prices to stabilize around an average of $11,092 per metric ton in 2025. Guotai Juan, a Chinese broker, forecasts a price range of 60,000 yuan ($8,184) to 90,000 yuan ($12,276).

The most-traded lithium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange traded between 68,250 yuan and 125,000 yuan per ton last year.

Analysts, however, cautioned that any significant price rise this year is likely to be capped as production can be swiftly scaled up at many closed mines if it proves profitable.

Merriman said that potential U.S. policy changes under the incoming Trump administration, including fresh tariffs on EV battery imports from China or slashing domestic EV incentives, may also pose risks to lithium demand.

($1 = 7.3312 Chinese yuan)

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies weakened on Monday, seeing sustained pressure from strength in the dollar as stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data fueled increased expectations that interest rates will fall at a slower pace in 2025. 

Regional trading volumes were somewhat muted on account of a Japanese market holiday, although the yen also remained largely fragile along with its regional peers.

Positive Chinese trade data did little to improve regional sentiment, with the yuan remaining fragile despite efforts from the People’s Bank to support the currency. 

Dollar at 24-mth high on strong payrolls data 

The dollar index and dollar index futures drifted higher in Asian trade after hitting their strongest levels since November 2022 on Friday.

The greenback was boosted chiefly by stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data for December, which showed the U.S. labor market remained strong.

The reading tied into heightened concerns that a strong labor market and sticky inflation will give the Federal Reserve even more impetus to cut interest rates slowly this year.

To that end, consumer price index inflation data is due this Wednesday and will be closely watched for more cues on interest rates. 

A string of Fed officials are also set to speak this week, after the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting showed growing concerns over high inflation and labor market strength among policymakers.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that they now expected only two interest rate cuts in 2025, compared to prior expectations of three cuts. The Fed’s terminal rate is also expected to be higher than initially expected. 

Chinese yuan weak despite positive trade data, PBOC support 

The Chinese yuan weakened on Monday, with the USDCNY pair rising 0.3%.

Weakness in the yuan came even as data showed China’s trade balance grew more than expected in December, aided by outsized exports.

But the reading was largely tied to exporters front-loading their shipments ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump imposing steep trade tariffs on the country. 

Trump- who will take office on January 20- has vowed to impose tariffs on China from “day one” of his presidency. 

Recent measures from the PBOC did little to support the yuan. The central bank paused its bond buying liquidity programs, and also set a series of strong midpoint fixes. 

Focus is now on more stimulus measures from Beijing, especially in response to Trump’s tariffs. 

Broader Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range, remaining pressured by the prospect of higher for longer U.S. interest rates. 

The Japanese yen’s USDJPY pair fell 0.1%, remaining quashed by uncertainty over a Bank of Japan meeting later this month.

The Australian dollar’s AUDUSD pair rose 0.1% after slumping to a near five-year low last week. The South Korean won’s USDKRW pair fell slightly, while the Singapore dollar’s USDSGD pair rose 0.1%.

The Indian rupee’s USDINR pair steadied after hitting fresh record highs above 86 rupees. 

Investing.com-- Goldman Sachs analysts said they now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, down from their prior forecast of three cuts, amid increased concerns over sticky inflation and labor market strength.

GS expects two rate cuts in 2025- in June and December, and one additional cut in 2026, bringing the Fed’s terminal rate to 3.5% to 3.75%, from current levels of 4.25% to 4.5%. 

The investment bank’s shift in expectations came just after stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data for December, which spurred increased bets that the Fed will have little immediate impetus to keep cutting interest rates. The reading also triggered steep losses on Wall Street.

The Fed cut rates by 1% through 2024, but warned of a much slower pace of cuts this year. The central bank had effectively slashed its outlook on rate cuts to a projected two from four for 2025, citing concerns over sticky inflation and a strong labor market. 

GS analysts said that while their baseline forecast for rates remained somewhat more dovish than market pricing, it was hard to have “great conviction in the timing of cuts” due to expectations of robust U.S. economic data, which made cuts reasonable but not critical. 

The investment bank also said that it was uncertain over how the Fed will navigate increases in trade tariffs under incoming President Donald Trump, who will take office next week. 

Trump has vowed to impose steep import tariffs on several major U.S. trading partners, especially China. But American importers are expected to pay the tariffs, heralding an increase in domestic goods and services that are reliant on imports. 

Investing.com -- Inflation data this week will likely test investors mettle against the background of Friday’s robust jobs report and uncertainty over Donald Trump’s policy plans. Earnings season gets underway, and oil prices are at multi-month highs as energy traders prepare for supply disruptions. Here's your look at what's happening in markets for the week ahead.

1. Inflation data

With a revival of inflation one of the key risks facing equity markets Wednesday’s CPI data will be closely watched.

Markets have already pushed out expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut to June after Friday’s unexpectedly strong jobs report showed payrolls increased by 256,000 last month, far more than forecasts of 160,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.

Economists are expecting the December CPI to show a 2.9% year-over-year increase.

While the Fed was confident that inflation had moderated enough to start cutting interest rates in September, the pace of annual inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed now projects inflation will rise 2.5% in 2025.

Minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, released on Wednesday, showed policymakers are concerned Trump's policies on trade and immigration could prolong the effort to return inflation to target.

2. Big banks kick off earnings

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) will kick off fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, while Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) report results on Thursday.

Robust investment banking fees, strong trading income and easing pressure to boost deposit rates are all expected to make for an upbeat earnings season for U.S. banks.

Expectations for bank results were also boosted following Trump’s election victory. The president-elect is expected to usher in a wave of deregulation and business-friendly tax reforms, which could significantly enhance banks' profitability.

S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have climbed nearly 10% in the quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES data cited by Reuters.

3. UK inflation

Wednesday’s UK inflation data will be in focus after last weeks selloff in UK government bonds, known as gilts, heaped pressure on the new Labour government as it seeks to stimulate the moribund economy.

British government bond yields have been climbing steadily since September, reflecting reduced expectations of Bank of England rate cuts, extra borrowing in the new government's Oct. 30 budget and higher US Treasury yields with Trump expected to pursue a loose fiscal policy and raise tariffs.

The December CPI is expected to show an annual increase of 2.6%, remaining above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

Comments by BoE officials will also be in the spotlight with Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden expected to speak on Tuesday and MPC member Alan Taylor due to deliver remarks the following day.

4. China data

China is to release a slew of data towards the end of the week which will give investors a chance to see how the word’s second biggest economy is performing as it faces the blow of impending US tariff hikes.

GDP data due on Friday is expected to confirm that the economy met its 5% annual growth target for 2024, as previously announced by President Xi Jinping at the end of December.

Beijing is also to release data on house prices, industrial production and retail sales.

China’s Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said Friday that Beijing has ample fiscal policy space and tools to support economic growth this year and it will step up spending to spur investment.

5. Oil sanctions

Oil prices rallied more than 3% to their highest in three months on Friday as traders braced for supply disruptions from the broadest U.S. sanctions package targeting Russian oil and gas revenue.

President Joe Biden's administration imposed fresh sanctions targeting Russian oil producers, tankers, intermediaries, traders and ports, aiming to hit every stage of Moscow's oil production and distribution chains.

Brent crude futures settled at $79.76 a barrel after crossing $80 a barrel for the first time since Oct.7. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $76.57 per barrel.

The timing of the sanctions, ahead of Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, makes it likely that he will keep the sanctions in place and use them as a negotiating tool for a Ukraine peace treaty, analysts said.

By Stella Qiu and Chibuike Oguh

SYDNEY/NEW YORK (Reuters) -Global share markets were under pressure on Friday as investors counted down to a U.S. jobs report later in the day that could exacerbate or ease the sell-off in the global bond market, while the dollar stood near two-year highs.

Both Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures were down 0.3%. Wall Street was closed overnight to mark the funeral of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

Pan-European STOXX 50 futures and UK FTSE futures were flat.

The closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is due at 0830 U.S. Eastern time (1330 GMT). Median forecasts are for a rise of 160,000 in jobs in December with unemployment holding at 4.2%.

Anything stronger could see 10-year Treasury yields spike to 13-month peaks and lift the U.S. dollar in the process.

Analysts at ING believe a print below 150,000 jobs would be needed to stop Treasury yields from rising further.

"Payrolls, as always, are a pivotal report. But we need to deviate materially from consensus to have an effect this time around," said Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research, Americas, at ING.

"Given the move already in Treasuries, there is some talk that Friday's numbers will need to be strong to continue this momentum, and in that sense there is some vulnerability for a lower yield reaction to a consensus outcome."

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei fell 0.9%, taking its weekly loss to 1.6%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was off 0.5% and headed for a weekly decline of 1.2%.

China's blue-chips slipped 0.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.5%.

Chinese government bond yields climbed after the central bank said it has decided to suspend treasury bond purchases temporarily due to short supply of the bonds.

Overnight, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he expects the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates, but added that an imminent move down isn't needed. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid signaled a reluctance to cut interest rates.

Markets have already scaled back expectations to around 43 basis points of U.S. rate cuts for 2025, while concerns about President-elect Donald Trump's potentially inflationary agenda have helped drive up longer-term yields.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed 1.5 basis points to at 4.6957%, just below an eight-month peak of 4.73% hit on Wednesday. The big chart level is 4.739% and if that breaks, bears would be targeting the psychologically important level of 5%, which has not been seen since 2007.

The climb in Treasury yields - up about 9 bps this week - has bolstered the dollar index to 109.30, gaining for a sixth straight week.

Worries about Britain's economy have kept the pound under pressure and hit gilts especially hard, driving yields to 16-1/2-year highs, although they have retreated somewhat.

The pound slipped 0.2% on Friday to $1.2278, having touched its lowest since November 2023 overnight. It is down 1.1% this week. [FRX/]

Oil prices rose on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.5% to $74.32 and were set for a weekly gain of 0.5%.

Gold prices rose 1.3% in the week to $2,674.44 an ounce, near its highest level since December.

UNITED NATIONS/NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Global economic growth is projected to remain at 2.8% in 2025, unchanged from 2024, held back by the top two economies, the U.S. and China, according to a United Nations report released on Thursday.

The World Economic Situation and Prospects report said that "positive but somewhat slower growth forecasts for China and the United States" will be complemented by modest recoveries in the European Union, Japan, and Britain and robust performance in some large developing economies, notably India and Indonesia.

"Despite continued expansion, the global economy is projected to grow at a slower pace than the 2010–2019 (pre-pandemic) average of 3.2%," according to the report by the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

"This subdued performance reflects ongoing structural challenges such as weak investment, slow productivity growth, high debt levels, and demographic pressures," it said.

The report said U.S. growth was expected to moderate from 2.8% last year to 1.9% in 2025 as the labour market softens and consumer spending slows.

It said growth in China was estimated at 4.9% for 2024 and projected to be 4.8% this year with public sector investments and a strong export performance partly offset by subdued consumption growth and lingering property sector weakness.

Europe was expected to recover modestly with growth increasing from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025, "supported by easing inflation and resilient labour markets," the report said.

South Asia is expected to remain the world’s fastest-growing region, with regional GDP projected to expand by 5.7% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, supported by a strong performance by India and economic recoveries in Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the report said.

(Reuters) - Oil prices rose in early Asian trade and were on track for a third straight week of gains with icy conditions in parts of the United States and Europe driving up fuel demand for heating.

Brent crude futures climbed 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $77.16 a barrel at 0138 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 26 cents, or 0.4%, to $74.18.

Over the three weeks ending Jan. 10, Brent has advanced 5.9% while WTI has jumped 6.9%.

Analysts at JPMorgan attributed the gains to growing concern over supply disruptions due to tightening sanctions, amid low oil stockpiles, freezing temperatures in many parts of the U.S. and Europe and improving sentiment regarding China's stimulus measures.

The U.S. weather bureau expects central and eastern parts of the country to experience below-average temperatures. Many regions in Europe have also been hit by extreme cold and will likely continue to experience a colder-than-usual start to the year, which JPMorgan analysts expect to boost demand.

"We anticipate a significant year-over-year increase in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2025, primarily boosted by ... demand for heating oil, kerosene, and LPG," JPMorgan said in a note on Friday.

Meanwhile, the premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August this week, potentially indicating supply tightness at a time of rising demand.

Oil prices have rallied despite the U.S. dollar strengthening for six straight weeks. A stronger dollar typically weighs on prices, as it makes purchases of crude expensive outside the United States.

Supplies could be further hit as U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to announce new sanctions targeting Russia's economy this week in a bid to bolster Ukraine's war effort against Moscow before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. A key target of sanctions so far has been Russia's oil industry.

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures fell on Thursday evening amid persistent concerns over a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, with upcoming nonfarm payrolls data set to provide more cues on the economy. 

The fourth-quarter earnings season is also set to begin in earnest next week, with a slew of major banks on tap.

Trading volumes were thin on account of a market holiday on Thursday to honor the death of former President Jimmy Carter. 

Wall Street indexes were nursing a choppy start to 2025, as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and uncertainty over President-elect Donald Trump’s policies weighed on risk appetite. 

S&P 500 Futures fell 0.3% to 5,942.50 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.3% to 21,287.75 points by 18:11 ET (23:11 GMT). Dow Jones Futures fell 0.2% to 42,809.0 points.

Nonfarm payrolls awaited for more rate cues 

Focus was now squarely on nonfarm payrolls for December, due on Friday, for more cues on the labor market and the path of interest rates.

Strength in the labor market is expected to give the Fed even more headroom to cut interest rates at a slower pace. Fears of a labor market slowdown were one of the main motivations for the Fed cutting rates by 1% in 2024. 

But the central bank slashed its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky inflation. The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting, released on Wednesday, also showed policymakers were concerned over the inflationary impact of protectionist policies under Trump. 

LONDON (Reuters) - The most destructive wildfires ever for Los Angeles may cause billions of dollars in insured losses, ratings agencies said on Thursday, though many homes are likely uninsured.

The wildfires burning in the Pacific Palisades, Eaton (NYSE:ETN), Hurst and other Los Angeles neighbourhoods may lead to insured losses of more than $8 billion, analysts at Morningstar DBRS said in a note. This surpasses the 2018 Woolsey fire in California, which caused more than $6 billion in losses, Morningstar said.

Jasper Cooper, senior credit officer for Moody's (NYSE:MCO) Ratings, expected insured losses to amount to billions of dollars given the area's high values of homes and businesses.

Homeowners have found it tough to buy insurance in catastrophe-prone states as several firms have pulled out of the market.

"These events will continue to have widespread, negative impacts for the state’s broader insurance market," said Denise Rappmund, senior analyst at Moody's.

"Increased recovery costs will likely drive up premiums and may reduce property insurance availability.”

Morningstar DBRS also said a larger than usual portion of the losses could be uninsured or covered under the California FAIR plan, designed to help homeowners where standard insurance is not available.

JPMorgan on Thursday estimated insured losses at $20 billion, Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) publication The Insurer reported, double its estimates of a day earlier due to an escalation of the damage.