Oil prices rose on Friday, rebounding from recent losses as markets awaited more signs of progress towards a U.S.-Iran peace deal. 

Brent crude futures for July, the global oil benchmark, jumped 3.3% to $106.00 a barrel by 05:19 ET (09:19 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2.9% to $99.01 per barrel. Both contracts were on track to post weekly declines.

"Uncertainty surrounding a US-Iran deal abounds as we head into the weekend, leaving the market susceptible to seesaw price moves if any fresh noise emerges," analysts at ING said in a note.

Iran’s foreign minister met with the interior minister of Pakistan, with the discussions focused on bridging key divides between the U.S. and Tehran over proposals to end their more than two-month old war, Iranian media reported.

The gathering comes two days after Pakistan presented Iran with the latest U.S. message in the negotiations, Reuters reported, citing the semi-officials Tasnim and ISNA news agencies. Islamabad has frequently acted as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran, facilitating diplomatic efforts to conclude a conflict that has cost thousands of lives and threatened the global economy.

Hopes around a permanent detente have been both brightened and dimmed this week, as sentiment is swayed by often contradictory news reports.

According to ISNA, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi is attempting to forge a framework for ending the war and resolving differences between both sides.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said discussions have shown "good signs" of progress, although he flagged that he did not want to be "overly optimistic" and was waiting to "see what happens over the next few days."

Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official quoted by Reuters said that gaps in negotiations have narrowed. However, a major fault line emerged on Thursday when the news agency reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had issued a directive that no enriched uranium should leave the country, hardening Tehran’s stance against one of President Donald Trump’s major demands.

The White House pushed back against the report, describing it as false, Fox News reported, citing a person directly involved in the negotiations.

Washington and Iran are now locked in a protracted ceasefire that has lasted longer than the initial phase of bombardments which began in late February. The U.S. and Israel launched a joint assault of Iran, sparking a bout of attacks that spread to other areas in the Middle East, including large energy-producing countries in the Gulf region.

Questions are also swirling around the status of the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump opposing efforts by Iran and Oman to establish a toll system for traversing the narrow conduit through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil transits. Crucially, the strait remains all but closed to tanker traffic, keeping upward pressure on oil prices and fueling worries over a wave of inflation in countries around the world.

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, investors weighed a steady dollar and elevated government bond yields against hopes for an imminent resolution to the Iran war.

By 05:33 ET (09:33 GMT), spot gold had fallen by 0.2% to $4,536.09 an ounce, while gold futures were down by 0.5% at $4,536.01 an ounce.

Optimism has been swirling around a possible deal to end the more than two-month war between the U.S. and Iran. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was in the "final stages" of a potential draft peace agreement, although he raised the specter of a re-escalation in hostilities, warning that "we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty" should a deal not be reached.

Iran, for its part, has said that it is reviewing Washington’s most recent position on concluding the conflict. 

Investors are particularly hunting for any indications that a deal could be made to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway off of Iran’s southern coast which has been all but closed to tanker traffic since the start of the war in late February. Shipping data in media reports earlier this week indicated that some vessels have been able to traverse the conduit in recent days. 

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were last trading lower at $103.97 a barrel, after having dropped from around $110 a barrel in the wake of Trump’s comments. Still, the contract is well above pre-war levels of $70 a barrel.

Worries have abounded that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could spur on an energy-fueled inflation wave around the world, which may, in turn, force global central banks to consider interest rate hikes.

Non-yielding assets like gold tend to underperform in elevated rate environments.

Meanwhile, a shift into the U.S. dollar as a safe haven asset during the crisis has further taken some of the shine off of gold’s appeal. Some investors have viewed the greenback favorably, buoyed by the belief that the U.S., as a major energy exporter, could be relatively insulated from the oil price spike. A stronger dollar can make gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

Other precious metals also fell, cutting short a limited recovery this week. Spot platinum declined 0.3% to $1,949.70/oz, while spot silver fell 0.6% to $75.4065/oz. 

"Base metals are starting the morning on a cautious footing as markets continue to balance shifting geopolitical signals with a softer macro backdrop," analysts at Britannia Global Markets said in a note.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday as markets awaited more cues on U.S.-Iran talks after Washington flagged progress in ongoing negotiations. 

Brent oil futures for July, the global crude benchmark, sank by 2.5% to $109.25 a barrel by 04:44 ET (08:44 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 1.9% to $102.35 a barrel. Both contracts declined by about 1% on Tuesday. 

Two Chinese-flagged supertankers carrying oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, raising hopes for a renewal to supply flows through the vital waterway, Reuters reported, citing LSEG and Kpler shipping data. South Korean-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier Universal Winner is also leaving the narrow conduit off of Iran’s southern coast, which has been effectively closed to tanker traffic since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in late February.

U.S. President Donald Trump also told lawmakers on Tuesday evening that the Iran war could end "very quickly." He had earlier this week said he postponed a planned attack against Iran, and that negotiations with Tehran were going well.  

Separately, Vice President JD Vance also struck an optimistic tone on the Iran war, stating that Tehran wanted to make a deal. 

Iran, in its latest peace proposal earlier this week, called for ending hostilities on all fronts, the exit of U.S. forces from the region, and reparations for damage from the war, state media reported on Tuesday. The U.S. had largely rejected Iran’s prior offers, arguing that ending the country’s nuclear ambitions remained a key demand in any negotiation. 

U.S. stockpile data awaited 

Markets are now awaiting upcoming U.S. inventory data for more cues on oil stockpiles in the face of continued supply disruptions.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a 9.1 million barrel (mb) draw last week, much bigger than expectations for a 3.4 mb draw. The API data usually heralds a similar print from official inventory data, which is due later on Wednesday. 

U.S. inventories are expected to have been drawn down sharply in recent weeks, as the country ramped up oil exports to offset overseas supply shocks. Trump has ordered the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stem supply shocks from the Iran conflict. 

Iran has sent a peace proposal to the U.S. which would stop hostilities in all fronts their conflict, including in Lebanon, and seek reparations for damage caused by the conflict, according to reports in state media on Tuesday.

Tehran's plan also calls for U.S. forces to exit areas close to Iran, as well as the removal of sanctions, the unfreezing of funds, and the end to an American blockade of Iranian ports, the IRNA news agency said.

Citing a Pakistani source, Reuters reported that Islamabad had shared Iran's proposal with the United States. Pakistan has been a frequent intermediary between both sides since the start of the conflict in late February.

Notably, Iran's latest offer does not appear to be substantially different from prior terms that U.S. President Donald Trump described as "garbage" last week, Reuters added.

On Monday, Trump said he had called off carrying out fresh attacks on Iran, following a request from three Gulf leaders.

The president claimed in a social media post that "serious negotiations are now taking place," adding that, "in the opinion" of the Gulf authorities, a "Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond."

He added that the agreement will include "NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!" -- although he flagged that he had ordered the U.S. military to remain prepared to launch a "full, large scale assault on Iran, on a moment's notice" if an accord is not reached.

The Associated Press reported that Iranian state television called Trump's comments a "retreat" from a threat to launch more attacks out of "fear," adding that defense systems had been activated on an island in the Strait of Hormuz that is home to a key water desalination plant.

Oil prices ticked lower, although Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, are still floating around $110 a barrel, well above pre-war levels of $70 per barrel. Fears that an energy shock could lead to a wave of inflation and elevated borrowing costs drove a sell-off in government bonds in recent days, but yields on sovereign debt have broadly stabilized.

Crucially, despite hopes for a detente between Washington and Tehran, the Strait of Hormuz remains all but shuttered to tanker traffic, denting key energy supplies to countries around the world. Analysts have been keeping close tabs on what a prolonged closure of the narrow waterway off Iran's southern coast, a major conduit for roughly a fifth of the world's oil, could mean for global growth.

"Stagflation is spreading globally as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz stymies trade, slows economies, and exacerbates inflation," analysts at Yardeni Research said in a note.

Gold prices were choppy on Monday, as investors kept tabs on a sell-off in global bonds driven by fears over accelerating inflation and higher interest rates.

By 07:24 ET (11:24 GMT), spot gold had dipped by 0.1% to $4,536.03 an ounce, while gold futures had dropped by 0.5% to $4,539.59 an ounce.

The price of the yellow metal had edged higher earlier in the session, after having slumped to its lowest level since March 30.

Bullion has retreated compared to its level at the start of the Iran war in late February, as traders flocked to the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, buoyed by the view that the American economy -- as a major energy exporter -- may be insulated from an energy shock sparked by the conflict. A stronger dollar can make gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

At the same time, worries over a surge in inflationary pressures due to the war have also dented gold’s appeal. Central banks can react to faster price gains by raising interest rates, which can make non-yielding assets like gold less appealing.

Over the weekend, a drone attack caused a fire at a nuclear facility in the United Arab Emirates, while Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted three drones.

The developments cast fresh doubt around a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, with President Donald Trump writing on social media that "the clock is ticking" for Iran to reach a peace agreement or face potential renewed military action from the United States.

Some investors were hopeful last week that Trump may be able to forge a breakthrough in the impasse with Iran during a visit to China, a key importer of Iranian oil. However, the summit did not yield any immediate commitments from Beijing.

"The weekend [...] saw a return of concerns over the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran," said David Morrison, Senior market Analyst at Trade Nation, in a note.

"These fell out of focus while the Trump administration was in Beijing. But they bounced back into sight as it became painfully apparent that the Chinese trip was a non-event, while Iran appears in no mood to accede to the U.S. peace plan."

U.S. stock index futures lost ground on Thursday evening after a U.S. official said recent bilateral talks with China did not focus on semiconductor export controls, dampening hopes for more chip sales to Beijing.  

Hawkish comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on Iran also spurred caution, especially as oil prices rose sharply following his comments. 

Markets were also spooked by a sharp increase in Treasury yields, amid growing concerns over the inflationary impact of the Iran war. 10-year yields surged nearly 2% to a near one-year high early Friday. 

"We continue to think the SPX is unappealing at present levels, not because the news isn’t good, but instead because all the positives appear priced in," Vital Knowledge analyst Adam Crisafulli wrote in his Thursday-close note.

S&P 500 Futures fell 1.1% to 7,440.50 points by 04:42 ET (08:42 GMT). Nasdaq 100 Futures slid 1.5% to 29,224.25 points, while Dow Jones Futures fell 0.6% to 49,763.0 points. 

Futures fell after Wall Street hit record highs during Thursday’s session, buoyed chiefly by Nvidia on the prospect of more sales to China. 

But outsized losses in Nasdaq futures on Friday indicated that chips and tech shares were on track for some profit-taking after recent gains. 

Greer says US-China talks did not cover chip export controls

Futures turned negative after U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Bloomberg TV that Washington’s chip export controls were "not a major topic of discussion" during bilateral talks with China earlier in the day. 

His comments came after Reuters reported on Thursday that NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) was allowed by the U.S. to sell its second-most powerful artificial intelligence chip, the H200, to 10 companies in China.

But the report also noted that not a single delivery had been made so far, with the status of Nvidia’s China sales remaining uncertain. CEO Jensen Huang traveled to China with Trump this week, and was seen seeking a breakthrough in chip sales to the country. 

Greer said it was up to China as to whether to purchase more U.S. chips. 

Nvidia had surged to record highs on Thursday following the Reuters report, also driving sharp gains on Wall Street. The stock fell 1.2% in premarket trade. 

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite hit record highs on Thursday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished above 50,000 points and in sight of its February peak. 

Trump, Xi conclude second round of talks; Iran warning weighs 

Trump and Xi concluded a second round of talks on Friday, with Chinese media reports indicating that Trump had left Beijing after a three-day visit. 

Xi said the two sides had marked progress towards building a better U.S.-China relationship, Chinese media reported.

But more details on just what trade agreements were reached during Trump’s China visit remained scant. Beijing had flagged Taiwan as a major point of focus for the talks. 

In a Fox News interview aired Thursday evening, Trump claimed that China had agreed to purchase oil from the U.S. after his talks with Xi. 

Trump also touted Chinese commitments to purchase Boeing jets, agricultural goods, and to open up the country to Visa, although details remained unclear. 

Trump said China was seeking a swift end to the Iran war, and said that he was "not going to be much more patient," urging Tehran to accept a trade deal.

Trump threatened more debilitating military strikes against Iran, after earlier this week warning that a ceasefire was on life support. Oil prices rose sharply on Friday following his comments. 

Markets remained on edge over the inflationary impact of the Iran war after a series of strong inflation readings this week. The prints showed that rising energy prices factored into higher living costs for Americans in April, and also sparked fears of a more hawkish Federal Reserve in the coming months. 

Gold was holding mostly steady on Thursday, as investors parsed through the details of a key summit of U.S. and Chinese leaders taking place against the backdrop of the ongoing Iran war.

By 06:09 ET (10:09 GMT), spot gold had risen by 0.2% to $4,698.20 an ounce, while gold futures were mostly unchanged at $4,704.70 an ounce.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have ended their first round of talks during a two-day summit, with Xi telling state media that negotiations around trade in particular were making progress. However, he flagged that pushback from the U.S. over Taiwan could sour relations.

Markets were especially keen for any update on possible discussions around the Iran war. Some analysts have suggested that Trump may attempt to persuade China, a major importer of Iranian oil, to act as a guarantor of a lasting peace agreement, although it remains uncertain whether Beijing would want to play such a role.

While the leaders and top business executives gather in China, the world’s economy faces a murky outlook due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway off Iran’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows. Iran and the U.S. have instituted twin blockades of the conduit, bringing tanker traffic to a virtual standstill.

Oil prices have soared well above pre-war levels of roughly $70 a barrel, placing upward pressure on inflation, fueling expectations that central banks could react by raising interest rates. This may not bode well for gold, a non-yielding asset which tends to underperform in higher rate environments.

The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, elevating him to the helm of the central bank just as policymakers are grappling price pressures that may make it harder to justify delivering rapid and aggressive rate cuts frequently demanded by Trump. Warsh will replace outgoing chair Jerome Powell.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar was mostly flat. Investors have turned to the greenback during the Iran war, viewing the currency as a safe haven. Some observers have also argued that the U.S., as a major energy exporter, could be insulated from the energy shock sparked by the shuttering of the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. producer price growth accelerated last month, in a fresh sign of the potential inflationary impact of an energy shock caused by the Iran war. 

The producer price index for final demand rose by 1.4% on a month-on-month basis in April, compared to expectations for an increase of 0.5%. The rate from March was also revised higher to 0.7%.

It was the largest such rise since March 2022, when the U.S. economy was hit by a burst of inflationary pressure as COVID-era lockdowns began to ease.

In the twelve months to April, PPI jumped by 6.0%, compared to forecasts of 4.9% and an upwardly-revised pace of 4.3% in March. 

Nearly 60% of the April uptick was attributed to a 1.2% advance in the index for final demand services, due mainly to a climb in margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling, the Labor Department said. The indices for truck transportation for freight also gained, as well as those for chemicals, fuels, lubricants, health and beauty.

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Prices for final demand goods moved up 2%, driven in large part by a 7.8% surge in the index’s energy price tracker. Gasoline costs, in particular, spiked by 15.6%, while prices for diesel fuel, jet fuel and industrial chemicals all rose.

Oil prices have skyrocketed since the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway off of Iran’s southern coast, was all but shuttered following the outbreak of the war in late February. 

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The global crude benchmark is now hovering well above $100 a barrel. This has, in turn, fueled worries that a wave of inflation could impact countries around the world.

Data earlier this week showed that consumer prices notched their biggest rise in three years in April, also sparked by higher gasoline costs. Analysts have been on the lookout for indications that the effect of soaring energy costs is bleeding into other sections of the economy as well. 

Against this backdrop, the amount of Federal Reserve rate hikes expected by the market in the coming months has increased, although the central bank is seen standing pat in the near term.

Gold prices fell on Tuesday as investors monitored a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, while also awaiting a meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.

Spot gold slipped 0.8% to $4,699.16 an ounce by 05:56 ET (09:56 GMT), while U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $4,707.20 an ounce.

Among other precious metals, spot silver dropped 2.6% to $83.90/oz, while platinum slid 2.7% to $2,078.23/oz.

Trump said that Iran’s response to a U.S.-backed peace proposal was a “piece of garbage” and warned that the ceasefire risked collapsing after weeks of indirect negotiations. He described the truce as being on “massive life support,” adding to fears of renewed escalation in the Gulf region.

Iran, meanwhile, said its armed forces were prepared to respond decisively to any “act of aggression.” Iranian officials insisted that Tehran’s demands -- including sanctions relief, restoration of oil exports, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz -- were legitimate. 

Oil prices remained elevated on Tuesday on concerns over possible supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global crude shipments.

Higher oil prices have capped gains in bullion, as investors worry that a sustained rise in energy costs could fuel inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. Higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar has firmed, with traders viewing the greenback as a relative safe haven during the broader geopolitical uncertainty. The American economy’s role as a major energy exporter could also help insulate the country from a broader energy shock, some analysts have suggested, further denting gold. A stronger dollar can make the yellow metal more expensive for overseas buyers.  

"Gold’s safe-haven appeal tends to perform best in a financial crisis or growth shock -- when real yields fall and the dollar weakens. A supply-driven energy shock does the opposite," analysts at ING said in a note.

Markets were also focused on Trump’s expected meeting with Xi in Beijing later this week, where discussions are expected to revolve around Iran, Taiwan, trade tensions, artificial intelligence and energy security.

Attention is also turning to upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the consumer price index report due on Tuesday, for clues on the impact of the Iran war and the path ahead for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. 

Futures linked to the main U.S. stock averages tick lower, after President Donald Trump rebuffed an Iranian response to an American peace plan as "unacceptable." Oil prices increase following the latest setback to hopes for an immediate resolution to the war in the Middle East. Analysts eye an upcoming trip by Trump to China, and gear up for key inflation data later in the week.

1. Futures slip

U.S. stock futures pointed lower on Monday, as investors assessed the potential for a permanent detente in the Iran war and kept tabs on runaway enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.

By 03:36 ET (07:36 GMT), the Dow futures contract had fallen by 79 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had slipped by 8 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had dropped by 25 points, or 0.1%.

The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both notched fresh record highs, extending a recent strong run into a sixth consecutive week.

Largely underpinning the gains have been expectations that the Trump administration is searching for a path to conclude a more than two-month war against Iran that has greatly disrupted global flows and threatened the stability of the global economy. At the same time, traders have continued to eye massive ongoing spending by big-name tech companies on the building out of data centers to support AI.

"For stocks stateside, the bull case is simply one that’s too robust to fight right now, as geopolitical optimism combines with stellar earnings growth, and a return of euphoria around the AI theme," said Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, in a note.

"Unless and until any of those factors shift, the path of least resistance should continue to lead higher, with dips remaining relatively shallow for now, and likely being used as buying opportunities by most."

2. Trump rejects Iran counteroffer

According to Iranian state TV, Tehran issued a response to a U.S. plan to end their more than two-month old conflict, focusing on concluding the fighting on all fronts and demanding compensation for war damage.

Iran also stressed that it controlled the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane off the country’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows. The strait has been all but shuttered during the conflict, and is now blockaded by both the U.S. and Iran.

Writing on social media within hours after Iran appeared to make its counteroffer, Trump said: "I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." No further details were provided.

The U.S. has proposed bringing the war to a swift end, followed by more detailed negotiations on key issues, especially Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

3. Oil rises

Oil prices, which have soared well above pre-war levels and fueled worries over an inflationary spike in countries around the world, marched higher.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were last higher by 3.4% at $104.69 a barrel.

"One would expect the market to become increasingly fatigued by the deluge of headlines and the back-and-forth. However, oil prices remain highly sensitive to noise around Iran, highlighting the significance of the ongoing supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf," ING analysts said in a note.

4. Trump to head to China from May 13-15

Still, the strategists suggested that Trump’s upcoming trip to China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, could be positive for peace efforts.

Trump will visit China for a summit with President Xi Jinping between May 13 and 15, Chinese state media reported on Monday.

It will be the first major trip to Beijing by a U.S. leader in nearly a decade, and is aimed at mending strained ties between the world’s largest economies.

Along with the Iran war, Trump and Xi are expected to discuss disputes over trade tariffs and Taiwan. The two are also likely to extend a trade truce signed in October, media reports said.

5. U.S. CPI ahead this week

Looking ahead this week, the U.S. consumer price index is due to highlight a slate of key economic data points.

Set to be released on Tuesday, the figures for April could provide a glimpse into the impact of the Iran war on U.S. inflationary pressures. In March, CPI accelerated, driven mostly by a sharp spike in gasoline-pump prices.

In April, headline consumer prices are seen increasing by 3.7% on an annualized basis, up from 3.3% previously. But, month-on-month, the number is tipped to slow to 0.6% from 0.9%.

So-called "core" CPI, which strips out volatile items like food and fuel, is anticipated to edge up slightly to 0.3% month-on-month. Analysts have been on the lookout for signs that the jump in crude prices will eventually feed into the costs of a range of goods beyond gasoline.