Oil prices were steady on Friday ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend, although investors kept tabs on hopes for a prolonged de-escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, was higher by 0.2% at $71.96 a barrel at 05:21 ET (09:21 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were little changed at $68.66 a barrel.

Traders have unwound some geopolitical risk premium following the signing of an interim Middle East peace deal last month, with the prospect of improving Gulf crude flows reinforcing expectations of ample near-term supplies. 

Investors continued to monitor negotiations between Washington and Tehran after U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed Iran had "agreed to just about everything we need," signaling confidence that discussions were making progress.

However, the Wall Street Journal reported that Tehran has resisted a proposal to renounce its claims over the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds. The report said Washington had offered financial incentives, including access to frozen assets, to secure unrestricted passage through the strategic waterway, although Iran has so far rejected the proposal.

Control of the strait, which Tehran effectively shuttered following the onset of a joint U.S.-Israeli assault in late February, has become a key sticking point in peace talks. However, media reports have indicated that shipping activity in the narrow waterway is showing some signs of recovery.

Oversupply concerns weigh

ANZ said a recent build-up in short positions has been a major driver behind a weakening in crude futures, although some investors have pared bearish bets ahead of the U.S. Independence Day weekend.

The bank said Brent’s futures curve remains in contango, with prompt prices trading below longer-dated contracts, signaling expectations of near-term oversupply. Recovering crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have reinforced that view, while Saudi Arabia’s exports have recovered to around 90% of their pre-war levels.

At the same time, lower crude prices have encouraged buying by China’s independent refiners, supported by more flexible pricing from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Even so, ANZ noted Iran continues to struggle to market its crude, with more than 58 million barrels remaining in floating storage and over 90% yet to secure a destination, according to Vortexa.

Spot gold prices ticked higher on Thursday, as investors prepared for upcoming U.S. employment data which could factor into how the Federal Reserve approaches interest rate decisions in the coming months.

By 06:37 ET (10:37 GMT), spot gold had risen by 0.8% to $4,065.05 an ounce, while gold futures had dipped by 0.1% to $4,077.42 an ounce.

The U.S. economy is tipped to have added 114,000 jobs in June, down from 172,000 in May but still hovering around robust levels. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is tipped to remain at the 4.3% level it has been at since March.

Over the past three months, the all-important nonfarm payrolls reports have all surpassed projections, pushing up the three-month average of payrolls to a two-year peak of 188,000.

"Our forecast suggests a solid job market, reconfirming that the labor market has reaccelerated from its last year’s soft patch," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note.

Signs of continued labor market resilience could grant the Fed more room for potential interest rate hikes this year, especially as policymakers flag concerns over energy-fueled inflation. Oil prices have moderated following the signing of a framework peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran last month, but uncertainty has continued to swirl around whether a crude price spike following the start of a joint U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran in late February will contribute to prolonged inflationary pressures.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said a "hawkish repricing" in Fed expectations has occurred in recent weeks. Investors are now forecasting the Fed could hike interest rates as soon as September, according to CME’s FedWatch. In theory, lifting rates can corral inflation, albeit at the risk of weighing on the labor market and wider economic growth.

Those hawkish bets were slightly dented this week, particularly after a separate report -- which is less comprehensive than the NFP figure -- showed that private sector payrolls rose by less than forecast in June. On Wednesday, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also suggested that inflation risks had eased in the U.S., fueling speculation that the Fed may opt not to raise rates as soon as this month.

The outlook for rates is key for gold, as it can influence the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like the yellow metal.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index weakened slightly, yet the potential of a more hawkish Fed trajectory has kept the currency floating well above pre-conflict levels. A stronger dollar can bode poorly for bullion, making it more expensive for overseas buyers.

"The firmer currency backdrop [...] is prompting investors to reassess positioning after a volatile few weeks," said Neil Welsh, Head of Metals at Britannia Global Markets, in a note.

Oil prices dipped on Wednesday, as markets kept tabs on a trip by U.S. and Iranian delegates to Qatar for separate peace talks with mediators.

At 04:50 ET (08:50 GMT), U.S. Crude Oil WTI Futures dropped 1.2% to $68.68 a barrel, while Brent Oil Futures retreated by 1.2% to $72.12 a barrel.

Traders remained focused on developments in Doha after Iran ruled out direct talks with senior U.S. envoys who had traveled to the region, instead saying any discussions would be conducted through mediators at the technical level. The shift clouded prospects for a swift agreement to turn the two-week-old ceasefire into a lasting peace deal.

The recovery follows a sharp pullback in crude prices after the Iran conflict. Brent tumbled about 38% during the second quarter after surging roughly 94% in the first quarter, marking its steepest quarterly decline since the record 66% plunge in the first quarter of 2020. The global benchmark also fell about 21% in June after a 19% decline in May, its biggest monthly drop since March 2020, as fears of prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz eased.

Geopolitical risks remain in focus

The absence of direct talks has reinforced uncertainty over how quickly Washington and Tehran can resolve outstanding issues under their 60-day negotiating framework, including the future of the Strait of Hormuz.

While the weekend saw renewed exchanges that briefly rattled the fragile truce, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has begun to recover, with Kpler data showing about 24 commodity vessels, including crude and LNG tankers, transited the waterway on Monday, with traffic remaining steady into Tuesday.

ANZ said hopes for a lasting peace agreement weighed on crude prices, but cautioned that uncertainty over the future governance of the Strait of Hormuz continues to cloud the outlook. The bank noted Iran has reiterated its intention to oversee maritime traffic through the strategic waterway, underscoring that shipping security remains a key risk for energy markets.

Supply outlook remains uncertain

On the supply side, fresh U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed domestic crude production climbed to a record 13.93 million barrels per day in April, as producers ramped up output in response to higher prices during the Iran conflict.

While stronger U.S. supply could limit further gains, analysts believe geopolitical risks continue to provide underlying support. ANZ’s China Commodity Index rose 0.5%, with the energy component also advancing 0.5%, pointing to resilient commodity demand even as crude prices have retreated from recent highs.

Markets are now watching for further progress in the Doha negotiations and upcoming U.S. inventory data for fresh direction on oil prices. 

Gold prices are on track for their biggest quarterly decline since April 2013, having fallen roughly 24% from their late-January all-time high near $5,589/oz, with the Gold Futures August contract trading at $4,031.70 today.

The selloff has been driven by a tightening vice of dollar strength and rising U.S. rate-hike expectations. The U.S. Dollar Index futures are near a 13-month high, as investors reprice Federal Reserve policy in the wake of hawkish signals tied to persistent inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Gold, which pays no yield, is acutely sensitive to the prospect of higher real rates, and the metal has now shed more than 6% year-to-date after briefly slipping below the key $4,000/oz psychological level for the first time since November 2025 on June 24.

Options markets are flashing an unusually bearish signal. For the first time since 2016, gold's put/call skew has turned positive, meaning traders are now paying more for downside protection than upside exposure.

Goldman Sachs commodity co-head Samantha Dart flagged the shift as a meaningful sentiment marker, noting that tail-risk pricing has rotated away from upside energy calls and toward gold puts. Yet Dart stopped well short of turning bearish on the metal's longer-term trajectory.

"Gold is not done," she wrote in a note published June 29. "We continue to see further upside, driven by both structural and eventually cyclical factors. Structurally, EM central bank diversification — following the 2022 freezing of Russia's reserves — remains the anchor of our $4,900/toz end 2026 forecast." Goldman's target implies a rebound of roughly 21% from current levels before year-end.

An OMFIF survey of 90 central banks, public pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, released June 30, found that for the first time, more central banks plan to cut dollar allocations than increase them over the next decade.

Gold "has moved to the centre of reserve management strategy," with a net 30% of respondents planning to boost gold holdings over the next one to two years. OMFIF senior economist Yara Aziz noted that "the old assumption that public investors can wait for the environment to normalise looks increasingly unrealistic."

Goldman also highlighted a structural deterioration in gold's portfolio utility. During the onset of the Middle East war, commodities including gold were negatively correlated with the S&P 500, providing genuine diversification. That relationship has since flipped to positive correlation, reducing hedging value while simultaneously making gold more vulnerable to dollar-driven selling. 

With the quarter closing Tuesday, investors are watching a dense run of U.S. macro data that could reinforce or soften the hawkish rate narrative. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for June, due July 1, carries a consensus forecast of 118,000, followed by the June Nonfarm Payrolls report on July 2, where analysts are looking for 114,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.

A hotter-than-expected payrolls print would likely cement dollar strength and push rate-hike pricing higher, extending gold's quarterly rout into Q3.

In the near term, gold faces a difficult setup: structurally supported by central bank buyers who are moving slowly, but cyclically exposed to every hawkish data point that crosses the tape.

Gold prices fell on Monday, as renewed tensions in the Middle East threatened to rekindle inflation fears and support expectations for elevated interest rates, a trend which may not bode well for non-yielding assets like bullion.

By 07:15 ET (11:15 GMT), spot gold had fallen by 1.3% to $4,035.82 an ounce, while gold futures had declined by 1.1% to $4,049.92 an ounce.

The U.S. and Iran have agreed to cease tit-for-tat strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing ships to freely traverse the vital waterway, according to media reports.

Citing a U.S. official, The New York Times reported that Iran has yet to confirm such an agreement.

But talks are set to continue on the details of putting a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran into practice, the paper said.

The U.S. has offered to hold talks with Iran in the Qatari capital of Doha, The Wall Street Journal also reported, adding that while the particulars of the summit have yet to be finalized, the gathering could take place as early as Tuesday.

Axios was the first to report on an agreement to cease fighting and restart talks.

Oil prices steadied at around pre-war levels, but an uptick following the latest hostilities kept worries of an energy-induced inflation wave in play. Predictions also remain that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will raise interest rates before the end of the year to corral price pressures.

"[T]here’s still plenty of risk facing the oil market. Even so, participants appear to be shrugging off these developments, instead focusing on what a continued recovery in oil flows would mean for the global balance," analysts at ING said in a note.

"This complacency is odd and clearly leaves significant upside risk if the supply recovery proves slow[.]"

At the same time, gold was being dragged down by strength in the U.S. dollar, which can make the yellow metal more expensive for overseas buyers. The greenback has been viewed as a relative safe haven through the Iran war, buoyed in part by the belief that the U.S. economy, as a major energy exporter, may be somewhat insulated from a recent spike in oil prices.

Upcoming data could provide a fresh glimpse into the state of the American economy. The monthly U.S. employment report is due out this week, along with figures tracking consumer confidence, job openings, and private payrolls.

Gold prices steadied on Friday after three consecutive weekly declines driven by a resurgent U.S. dollar and growing expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year.

Spot gold ticked up 0.3% to $4,036.88 an ounce by 05:18 ET (09:18 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures added 0.1% to $4,051.30.

Bullion was on track for a nearly 3% weekly loss and has declined roughly 11% this month.

The U.S. dollar remained steady near a 13-month high and was headed for a second straight weekly gain, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The greenback has been supported by rising expectations that the Fed may need to tighten policy further as inflation remains elevated.

Data released on Thursday showed the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 4.1% in May from a year earlier, the highest reading in more than three years and the first above 4% since 2023.

Markets currently see a 63% chance of a Fed rate increase by September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of bullion because it offers no yield.

Limiting losses, investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East after a cargo vessel reported an attack near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting lingering geopolitical risks despite a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace agreement.

The incident briefly revived safe-haven demand for gold but was insufficient to offset pressure from the stronger dollar and higher rate expectations.

Among other precious metals, silver prices edged uo 0.1% to $57.96 per ounce, heading for a 12% weekly drop.

platinum rose 1% to $1,618.23/oz, but was on track for its seventh straight weekly loss.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.4% to $13,249.33 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures also slid 0.2% to $6.06 a pound.

Gold prices extended losses on Thursday, hovering near their lowest levels in more than seven months, as a resurgent U.S. dollar and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening eroded demand for the non-yielding metal.

Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $3,978.60 an ounce by 02:25 ET (06:25 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures edged 0.4% lower to $3,993.80.

Gold tumbled below the key $4,000-per-ounce mark on Wednesday for the first time since November 2025.

The precious metal has now lost nearly 30% from its January record high of $5,595.46 an ounce.

The decline came as the dollar remained pinned at a 13-month high after six straight sessions of gains, supported by increasing bets that the Fed may raise interest rates later this year.

Markets are pricing in a roughly one-third chance of a July rate hike and a 66% probability of tightening by September, according to CME FedWatch.

A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which does not offer yields.

"Gold’s weakness highlights the extent to which markets have shifted their focus from safe-haven demand towards the implications of higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions," ING analysts said in a recent note.

The latest slide also reflects a broader reassessment of safe-haven demand. Easing geopolitical concerns after progress in U.S.-Iran peace efforts and lower oil prices have reduced some of the risk premium that supported gold earlier this year.

Traders await U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for further clues on the policy outlook. 

Among other precious metals, silver prices fell 0.6% to $57.10 per ounce, after dropping more than 6% in the previous session.

"While the silver market is expected to remain in deficit, some of the strongest demand drivers are becoming less supportive," ING analysts added.

Platinum prices slipped 1.6% to $1,559.60/oz, after sliding 4.5% on Wednesday.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.6% to $13,112.95 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures traded flat at $5.97 a pound.

Oil prices extended losses on Wednesday, retreating for a third straight session as signs of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and improving U.S.-Iran relations eased fears of a prolonged disruption to Middle East energy supplies.

As of 05:39 ET (09:39 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in August fell 2% to $75.52 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also slipped 1.8% to $71.89 per barrel.

Both benchmarks settled around four-month lows in the previous session.

Market sentiment was shaped by evidence that shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is steadily recovering following a months-long conflict that had disrupted one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

Reports showed that several previously stranded supertankers have successfully exited the Gulf carrying crude cargoes, while a growing number of Qatar-linked liquefied natural gas vessels have resumed voyages through the waterway.

The movements are being viewed by traders as an early sign that regional energy flows are normalizing.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators have agreed to a 60-day roadmap aimed at reaching a broader settlement, while Washington has granted a temporary sanctions waiver allowing certain Iranian oil exports to resume through August.

The developments have raised expectations of additional crude supplies returning to global markets.

"Estimates suggest that roughly 6-7m b/d of oil moved through the strait in recent days, which is still far below pre-war flows of around 20m b/d. However, with pipeline diversions for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, we only need to see oil flows through the strait return to around 14m b/d for oil supply from the Persian Gulf to return to pre-war levels," ING analysts said in a note.

"We continue to believe that the oil sell-off is overdone, with the market still tightening. Clearly, price movements suggest the market expects a fairly rapid recovery in Persian Gulf oil supplies," they added.

Investors also assessed U.S. inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). U.S. crude inventories declined by 765,000 barrels in the week ended June 19, compared with analysts’ expectations for a larger draw.

Crude stocks at the WTI delivery hub, Cushing, fell by 1 million barrels. Gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1.2 million barrels and 1.4 million barrels, respectively.

Traders are awaiting official inventory figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday for confirmation.

Gold prices fell about 1.5% on Tuesday as a firmer U.S. dollar and rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year dented demand for the non-yielding metal, while investors also weighed progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.

Spot gold fell 1.55% to $4,126.45 an ounce by 06:42 ET (10:42 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures slipped 1.63% to $4,142.10.

The yellow metal rose 0.7% in the previous session over optimism about U.S.-Iran peace talks.

The US Dollar Index held near a 13-month high touched last week.

The greenback has drawn support from a hawkish shift at last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.

While policymakers left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, updated projections showed growing support for at least one rate increase before year-end. 

Futures markets are now pricing about a 90% probability of a rate hike in December, with some investors even anticipating more than one increase as policymakers remain focused on inflation risks. 

A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while higher interest rates reduce the appeal of bullion because it pays no interest.

Investor attention also remained on diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. The U.S. has granted a 60-day sanctions waiver on some Iranian oil sales following initial talks in Switzerland, while U.S. officials described the discussions as constructive. 

While gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical turmoil, investors have increasingly focused on the inflationary consequences of the Iran conflict.

The war drove oil prices sharply higher earlier this year, raising concerns that energy-driven inflation could force central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

Investors also await U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data due on Thursday, the Fed’s preferred price gauge.

Among other precious metals, silver prices slipped 4.3% to $62.29 per ounce, while platinum fell 2.6% to $1,639.60/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange dipped 1.2% to $13,486.33 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures declined 2.3% to $6.22 a pound.

Gold prices rose on Monday as investors monitored developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland and assessed the outlook for U.S. monetary policy following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals last week.

Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,204.34 an ounce by 05:28 ET (00:28 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures climbed 1.2% to $4,222.42.

Bullion has slipped 1.4% last week, and is coming off three straight sessions of losses.

The precious metal found support as Iranian officials reported progress in talks with the United States, helping ease fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies and weighing on crude oil prices.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Aragchi said "major progress" had been made during the quadrilateral talks in Switzerland, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan said negotiators had agreed on a roadmap toward a broader agreement.

Technical discussions are set to continue through the week.

Lower oil prices helped reduce inflation concerns, providing support to bullion by tempering expectations that energy-driven price pressures could force the Federal Reserve into a more aggressive tightening cycle.

Brent crude pared earlier gains on Monday after signs of diplomatic progress emerged despite ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, gains in gold were limited by expectations that U.S. interest rates could remain elevated.

Markets continue to digest last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers maintained a hawkish bias and kept the possibility of further rate increases on the table amid persistent inflation risks.

"While geopolitical risks should continue to provide underlying support, a higher-for-longer US rate environment may limit near-term upside," ING analysts said in a note.

The US Dollar Index held firm near a 13-month high hit last week.

Investors are now awaiting a key reading of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index later this week for fresh clues on the path of monetary policy.

Among other precious metals, silver prices rose 2.2% to $66.36 per ounce, while platinum gained 11% to $1,683.39/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.9% to $13,719.70 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures traded up 0.6% at $6.37 a pound.