Gold prices dropped on Tuesday, weighed down by a firmer U.S. dollar, as investors assessed uncertainty around Middle East peace talks and awaited a key Congressional confirmation hearing with Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh.

By 06:15 ET (10:15 GMT), spot gold had slid by 0.8% to $4,782.74 an ounce, while gold futures had fallen by 0.6% to $4,802.49 an ounce.

Denting the appeal of gold was a strengthening in the dollar, which can make bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. A tracker of the greenback against a basket of currency peers was last higher by 0.2%, as cautious traders flocked to the dollar, which some have argued presents a safe-haven thanks partially to the belief that heavy U.S. energy exports will help insulate the country from Iran-linked oil shocks.

Also weighing on the yellow metal were oil prices, which are hovering well above pre-war levels due in large part to a weekslong closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil. The effective shuttering of the waterway was reinstated over the weekend, despite having been temporarily reopened to commercial shipping traffic on Friday.

The jump in oil prices has fueled fears that a bout of inflationary pressures could hit countries around the world, potentially leading central banks to hike interest rates. This could bode poorly for non-yielding assets like gold, which tend to underperform in elevated rate environments.

U.S.-Iran peace talks in question

Uncertainty surrounded the prospect of fresh peace talks between the U.S. and Iran on Tuesday, with both sides presenting conflicting signals ahead of the fast-approaching expiration of a temporary ceasefire deal.

The pause to the fighting is set to run out later this week, although the exact timing of the deadline remained unspecified. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the two-week ceasefire on April 7 at 6:32 p.m. ET (22:32 GMT).

Citing a Pakistani source, Reuters reported that the halt to hostilities would end at 8 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, or midnight GMT on Thursday.

With the clock ticking down, Pakistan, which has served as a frequent mediator between Washington and Tehran, has been moving to clear the path for renewed talks to resolve a conflict which began with joint U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran in late February.

Warsh set for Senate confirmation hearing 

Beyond the Iran war, investors are eyeing the confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to become the next Fed Chair. The Fed’s independence from Trump – who has constantly demanded lower interest rates – will be of particular interest for Wall Street.

Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT).

His nomination has been viewed as less dovish than markets were expecting. While Warsh has expressed support for Trump’s demands for lower rates, he has in the past criticized the Fed’s asset buying activities, and has called for a leaner balance sheet.

Gold and other precious metals plummeted from record highs following Warsh’s nomination in late-January. In prepared remarks for the hearing cited by media reports, Warsh emphasized the Fed’s independence from political influence, but also noted that the bank should remain focused on its primary goals.

His confirmation as Fed Chair is likely to be delayed even as incumbent Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Several top lawmakers have called for Powell to stay on until the Trump administration drops an investigation into Powell and the Fed over allegations of corruption in a renovation project. The probe was widely criticized as an attempt to coerce the central bank. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that negotiations between Washington and Tehran may resume this weekend, as a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon seemed to be holding on Friday.

Washington and Tehran are “very close” to reaching a deal, Trump said, adding that Iran has agreed not to possess a nuclear weapon for more than 20 years. A desire to quell Iran’s nuclear ambitions has been cited Trump as a central reason for the war, which began with joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.

In return, Iran has called for the removal of international sanctions.

Trump flagged that he would consider extending the ceasefire if Washington was close to an agreement with Tehran.

Crucially, a new 10-day halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon could remove another key sticking point in negotiations. Despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Israel has continued to carry out strikes on Iran-aligned Hezbollah militants in neighboring Lebanon. Iran has demanded that such attacks must stop before an accord with the U.S. can be secured.

Both Israel and Lebanon officials have confirmed the truce, which began at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, although Hezbollah did not say whether it would accept it and would instead base its actions on “how developments unfold.” Israel and Hezbollah exchanged strikes in the hours leading up to the start of the pause to fighting, statements from each military said.

Still, Trump has reiterated his belief that the Iran war should end soon. According to Reuters, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have been scaling back their hopes for a comprehensive deal and are rather looking to forge a temporary memorandum that would prevent fighting from flaring up once again.

Oil hovers below $100

Oil prices sat below $100 a barrel, with traders keeping tabs on hopes for a long-term peace accord.

Following the outbreak of the war, crude briefly surged to as high as $120 a barrel, compared to pre-conflict levels of around $70 a barrel.

Underpinning much of the surge has been the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off of Iran’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil squeezes. Analysts at ING have estimated that around 13 million barrels per day of oil have been disrupted by the shuttering of the strait.

The uptick has in turn sparked fears around a spike in inflation in countries around the world that could dampen global economic growth. There has been subsequent debate around the cascading impact of these trends on everything from central bank interest rate policy to gold and currencies.

Both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned of softer demand in the coming months, while a trickle of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and an ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports may hit supplies.

"Control of the strait remains the main flashpoint,” OCBC analysts said, warning that U.S.-Iran negotiations could take as much as six months.

France and Britain are set to chair a meeting on Friday of roughly 40 countries which aims to signal to the U.S. that they are willing to play a part in unblocking the strait. Trump has frequently criticized other nations, including U.S. allies, for not immediately helping Washington’s efforts to reopen navigation through the chokepoint.

Meanwhile, a U.S. blockade of Iran that began earlier this week has intensified. U.S. military officials have stressed that the restrictions apply to Iran’s ports and coastline, not the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold prices crept higher on Thursday as persistent weakness in the dollar benefited metal markets, with focus remaining on more potential ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran.

The gold metal remained close to a near one-month high notched on Wednesday, as hopes for a prolonged de-escalation in the Iran war boosted risk appetite and cooled some inflation concerns.

Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,808.42 an ounce, while gold futures added 0.1% to $4,828.71/oz by 06:14 ET (10:14 GMT). 

Other precious metals also advanced. Spot silver ticked up 0.6% to $79.4055/oz and spot platinum rose 1.2% to $2,138.32/oz. 

Iran ceasefire extension hopes 

Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle to hold fresh talks, after an initial round of negotiations last weekend in Pakistan did not yield an immediate deal, according to the Wall Street Journal. Citing officials familiar with the matter, the paper said both sides have not set a time or venue for the meeting.

A fragile ceasefire between the two is due to expire on April 21. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has also said talks between Israel and Lebanon will take place later today, but did not offer further details. Israel has said the discussions will take place, although the Associated Press reported that Lebanon was unaware of the talks.

Still, signs of friction in the Middle East remained, most notably over an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. A top military commander in Iran has warned Washington not to continue the blockade, which U.S. Central Command has claimed has not been evaded by any Iranian-linked commercial ships and oil tankers.

Against this backdrop, oil prices have stabilized below $100 a barrel, but remain well above pre-war levels. A surge in crude to roughly $120 a barrel after the outbreak of the war in late February fueled concerns over a possible spike in inflationary pressures in countries around the world.

Bets that central banks, including the Federal Reserve in the U.S., could respond by hiking interest rates in turn grew, denting the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. However, optimism around peace negotiations have helped to moderate these wagers in recent days.

Spot gold has subsequently edged up by 0.9% over the past one-week period.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar, which was viewed throughout March as an investment bastion thanks to perceptions that the U.S. -- a major energy exporter -- was insulated from oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has softened. This could make dollar-denominated gold more enticing for overseas buyers. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the U.S. war with Iran may be coming to a conclusion soon, even as the American military says an ongoing naval blockade has restricted shipping traffic in and out of Iran.

Speaking to Sky News in the U.K., Trump said it was "very possible" that a permanent ceasefire agreement with Iran could be reached prior to the visit of King Charles later this month. He added that Iran has been "beaten up pretty bad."

Earlier, Trump told Maria Bartiromo of Fox News that the conflict, which began with joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, is "close to over."

The New York Post also reported that Trump expects temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks to resume in the next two days, following a first round talks in Pakistan last weekend. 

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the fighting is nearing an end and that the U.S. had achieved its objectives in Iran, including hampering Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and limiting its military capabilities. Iran has largely denied these claims. 

The U.S. and Iran agreed to a tenuous two-week ceasefire until April 21. Hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East were furthered by Israel and Lebanon holding their first direct talks in decades this week in Washington. Israel has continued to carry out strikes against Iran-aligned Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, threatening to upend the halt to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. Israel has disputed Iranian claims that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire deal. 

Citing regional officials, the Associated Press reported mediators’ efforts to extend the ceasefire have made progress and both sides are now anticipated to return to the negotiating table. The news agency said mediators were working on a compromise to three of the main sticking points in the talks, such as Iran’s nuclear program, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for the war.

U.S. fully implements blockade, military says

Meanwhile, the U.S. has fully implemented a blockade of Iran’s ports and ships, the military’s Central Command division said in a statement on Tuesday. The move comes after Trump ordered the blockade against Iran following the weekend talks, reportedly the aim of further pressuring Tehran into a ceasefire deal.

"A blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented [...] U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea," Central Command said in a social media post. 

The U.S. blockade, however, could complicate ceasefire negotiations, and could also herald more shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 

The blockade threatened to add to concerns over oil supply flows through the Persian Gulf, which have slowed to a trickle during the war. But the Wall Street Journal has reported that over 20 commercial vessels have managed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz recently, signaling a possible improvement in movement through the vital waterway off of Iran’s southern coast.

The Pentagon is also sending roughly 10,000 additional troops and major naval assets to the Middle East, according to a report from The Washington Post. The deployment includes about 6,000 troops aboard the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group and roughly 4,200 personnel with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. The added forces are expected to bolster an existing U.S. military presence of about 50,000 personnel in the region.

Oil prices hovered below $100 a barrel, although they remain well above pre-war levels. At 03:16 ET, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark had moved up by 0.3% to $95.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures had declined by 0.2% to $91.12 a barrel.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, buoyed by a softer U.S. dollar, as markets gauged hopes for a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

Spot gold edged up 0.7% to $4,773.34 an ounce by 05:49 ET (09:49 GMT), while gold futures added 0.7% to $4,800.12/oz. Bullion was supported by weakness in the dollar, with markets looking to some de-escalation in the Iran war despite an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Softness in the greenback can make gold more attractive to overseas buyers, possibly boosting demand.  

While gold is typically viewed as a bulwark against geopolitical strife, investors have broadly looked to the dollar for safety during the Middle East conflict. The U.S. is viewed as a net energy exporter, which could help insulate the American economy from disruptions to oil flows from the Persian Gulf. Signs of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, as a result, have recently weighed on the dollar and bolstered gold. 

Washington and Tehran have continued to engaged with one another and there has been some forward motion toward a permanent ceasefire deal, Reuters reported.

U.S. President Donald Trump has also noted that the White House had been contacted by Iranian officials who would like to "make a deal," adding that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. Washington has reportedly demanded that Iran agree not to enrich uranium, a key part of the process of building a nuclear weapon, for 20 years.

Meanwhile, Pakistan, which has emerged as a key mediator between the U.S. and Iran, has offered to host a second round of discussions prior to the end of the ongoing two-week ceasefire, according to reports. The first talks were held in Islamabad last weekend.

Elsewhere, Israel and Lebanon are due to begin direct peace talks in Washington on Tuesday. Air attacks by Israel on targets in Iran-aligned Hezbollah targets in Lebanon have been a key sticking point threatening the fragile halt to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will take part in the discussions between Israel and Lebanon, the WSJ said, quoting a State Department official.

Oil prices dipped back below $100 a barrel amid optimism for a possible deal to end the fighting in the Middle East. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, were last down by 0.9% to $98.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined by 2.0% to $97.07 a barrel. 

But crude prices remain well above pre-war levels. The energy shock has fueled concerns over a spike in inflationary pressures in countries around the world, denting expectations for central bank interest rate reductions. Gold tends to underperform in elevated rate environments.  

Traders will have the chance to parse through U.S. producer price index data later today. The numbers will be closely watched for signs of an energy-fueled inflation bump in March, especially after data last week showed that consumer price growth accelerated sharply.

Gold prices fell on Monday, coming under pressure from a stronger dollar after ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran largely fell through, sending traders into the dollar as a safe haven.

Bullion was also pressured by strong U.S. consumer price index inflation data from Friday, which further dented bets on any near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,720.67 an ounce by 01:06 ET (05:06 GMT), while gold futures fell 0.9% to $4,743.20/oz. 

Other precious metals also retreated, with spot platinum down slightly to $2,047.06/oz, while spot silver fell nearly 2% to $74.3975/oz. 

Dollar gains as U.S.-Iran talks fall through, Hormuz blockade looms

The dollar index rose some 0.4% on Monday, with the greenback benefiting from increased haven demand after ceasefire talks between Iran and the U.S. yielded little consensus.

Marathon talks were held in Pakistan over the weekend, but pointed to little de-escalation in the conflict as Washington and Tehran clashed over nuclear activities, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s support of militant groups in the Middle East.

U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after talks fell through, but later clarified that the blockade will target Iran’s ports and ships specifically. 

The blockade is set to begin from 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT), and could herald a military escalation in Iran. Tehran largely rebuked U.S. plans for the blockade. 

U.S. CPI rises sharply in March on energy boost 

Adding to pressure on gold, U.S. consumer price index inflation data showed a sharp increase in March, as the Iran war spurred increases in fuel prices.

CPI grew 3.3% year-on-year in March, missing expectations of 3.4%, but rising sharply from 2.4% in February. 

The data stoked increased concerns over higher oil and gas prices– due to the Iran war– spurring increased inflation across the globe. The Strait of Hormuz, a key energy shipping route, has remained largely closed since late-February, with a U.S. blockade heralding scant prospects for reopening. 

The CPI data spurred a further paring back in bets on any interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for at least the next 12 months, CME Fedwatch showed. Such a scenario bodes poorly for gold and other non-yielding assets, with rate concerns having been a key driver of gold’s underperformance since the onset of the Iran war. 

Fears of steady rates largely overshadowed gold’s status as a safe haven, while a stellar rally in the yellow metal through late-2025 also deterred buyers. 

U.S. producer price index inflation is due later this week. 

Israel's military said it carried out attacks on Iran-aligned Hezbollah militants in Lebanon on Friday, potentially undermining hopes that a prolonged U.S.-Iran ceasefire can be forged in potential weekend talks.

A spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry has suggested that officials from the country may not attend peace negotiations in Pakistan, due to begin on Saturday, should Israel continue hitting Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

American and Iranian officials have been at odds over whether Lebanon was included in a ceasefire deal notched this week.

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he had ordered his government to start peace talks with the Lebanese government over a possible disarmament of Hezbollah. However, Netanyahu stressed that there remains "no ceasefire" in Lebanon.

More than 300 people were killed by Israeli strikes on Thursday, according to Lebanese authorities quoted by The New York Times.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said that he has asked Netanyahu to limit attacks on Lebanon, as he looks to prevent a fragile two-week ceasefire with Iran from collapsing.

All the while, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still near a virtual standstill, with Reuters reporting that shipping through the narrow waterway off of Iran's southern coast was well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday despite the ceasefire. Iran, whose chokehold on the strait has threatened the flow of around a fifth of the world's oil, has told vessels that they must keep to its territorial waters while making any sailings.

Several Asian countries are heavy importers of crude products which traverse the strait, while Europe uses natural gas from Persian Gulf nations which have been targeted by Iranian attacks.

Bombardments of Saudi energy facilities have also slashed the kingdom's oil output capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day and throughput on its East-West Pipeline by roughly 700,000 barrels per day, Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday.

The prospect of slow protracted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in production in Saudi Arabia, a major crude center in the Middle East, pushed up oil prices.

Trump suggested that Iran is "doing a very poor job" of allowing oil to flow through the strait and warned Tehran from collecting fees from some ships making crossings. The Wall Street Journal, citing an Iranian lawmaker, said the country was raking in $2 million from tolls charged on some ships.

Goldman Sachs nudged down its second-quarter oil price forecast after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though the bank kept its medium-term outlook unchanged and said that risks remain tilted to the upside.

Brent crude and WTI futures fell to the mid-$90s per barrel on Wednesday following the ceasefire announcement. Goldman strategists said the developments were "largely in line" with their baseline expectation that energy flows through the Strait would begin recovering over the weekend, followed by a gradual one-month return of Persian Gulf exports to pre-war levels.

The bank lowered its second-quarter Brent and WTI forecasts to $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively, down from $99 and $91, citing the reduced risk premium at the front of the curve and early signs of recovering oil flows through the Strait.

Its third- and fourth-quarter forecasts for Brent were left unchanged at $82 and $80, with WTI at $77 and $75.

Strategists cautioned that the situation remains uncertain, highlighting Vice President Vance’s description of the Iran truce as "fragile." They continue to see price risks skewed to the upside from potentially longer disruptions and persistent crude production losses.

In an adverse scenario where the ceasefire fails and Strait reopening is delayed by a month, Goldman sees Brent averaging $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter, assuming full recovery of Persian Gulf production.

In a severely adverse scenario involving persistent production losses of 2 million barrels per day, it sees prices reaching $115.

On natural gas, the European benchmark TTF fell sharply to 45 EUR/MWh following the ceasefire news. Goldman lowered its second-quarter TTF forecast to 50 EUR/MWh from 70 EUR/MWh previously, pointing to unexpectedly weak Chinese LNG demand that has kept European LNG imports above prior projections and reduced the need for as large a risk premium.

The bank’s second-half TTF forecast was little changed at 42 EUR/MWh, modestly below current forwards of 46 EUR/MWh.

Strategists said gas price risks also remain skewed higher. Should LNG flows through the Strait face further delays or infrastructure damage, they said the market "would require broader demand destruction, likely driving TTF prices to test a higher range above 75 EUR/MWh."

Gold climbed to almost a three-week high on Wednesday, while the U.S. dollar weakened, after President Donald Trump agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Iran.

Spot gold was up 1.6% at $4,778.95 an ounce by 05:46 ET (09:46 GMT), after earlier reaching its highest point since March 19. U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose by 2.6% to $4,807.34 an ounce.

Trump said in a social media post that he would suspend military action against Iran for two weeks, adding that the U.S. had already achieved its core military objectives.

Earlier in the day, Trump had warned that all of Iranian “civilization" would be eradicated if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his 8:00 p.m. Eastern deadline.

The ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan after last-minute diplomatic efforts, is conditional on Iran ensuring the safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for roughly 20% of global oil flows.

Iran also signaled a conditional willingness to de-escalate, saying safe passage through the strait would be possible during the ceasefire period, provided hostilities were halted and vessels coordinated with Iranian authorities.

Trump also said on Wednesday that the U.S. would help ease the traffic buildup in the strait.

Oil price plunge, dollar slips

Markets reacted swiftly, with oil prices plunging by more than 15% and risk assets rallying, while the dollar came under pressure.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currency pairs, fell, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Despite bullion’s traditional appeal as a safe-haven asset, it had come under pressure last month as oil prices surged sharply, stoking inflation concerns and raising expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. Gold tends to underperform in elevated rate environments.

Market participants were also looking ahead to the U.S. March consumer price index (CPI) report due on Friday, which is expected to provide one of the first clear indications of the impact of the recent surge in energy prices due to the war.

Economists expect headline inflation to have accelerated on a monthly basis, driven largely by higher fuel costs, potentially complicating the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, while the dollar weakened, with investors keeping a wary eye on U.S. President Donald Trump’s impending deadline to Iran to unblock the Strait of Hormuz.

Spot gold inched up by 0.8% to $4,685.54 per ounce by 05:04 ET (09:04 GMT), while gold futures for June delivery ticked up by 0.6% to $4,710.84 per ounce.

Trump vowed to decimate "every bridge" and "power plant" in Iran should the Islamic Republic not agree by his Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline to a deal which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz -- whose effective closure to tanker traffic has pushed up oil prices, threatening to drive inflation higher and weigh on global growth. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil squeezes through the waterway off of Iran’s southern coast.

Iran, for its part, has called for a permanent settlement that includes sanctions relief, security guarantees, and compensation for damages, although media reports suggested that the White House was not likely to accept the demands.

If the fresh U.S. attacks happen, Trump warned, it would take Iran "100 years to rebuild."

But the bellicose language was accompanied a caveat from Trump that a diplomatic resolution could be reached to the war, which began with joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.

Also aiding sentiment around gold was China’s central bank, which maintained its purchases of the metal for a seventeenth straight month. Its reserves stood at 74.38 million fine troy ounces by the end of March, compared to 74.22 million in the prior month.

Gold remains lower over past month

The yellow metal has slumped over the past one-month period, as the prospect of an energy-fueled inflation spike underpinned expectations that central banks around the world may opt to leave interest rates higher for longer. Non-yielding bullion tends to underperform in elevated rate environments.

Adding to the downward pressure on gold has been the U.S. dollar. The greenback has strengthened as investors rush to it as a safe haven, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

On Tuesday, the dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of its peers, had dipped by 0.2%.

But the dollar remains higher by around 0.8% over the past month. During that time, spot gold has dropped by more than 8%.