Gold prices edged higher on Friday, but remained on track for a weekly decline, as investors gauged hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal that could relieve some fears of an energy-induced inflation surge.

By 05:29 ET (09:29 GMT), spot gold had risen by 0.2% to $4,220.27 an ounce, yet was on track to dip by more than 2% over the past week. Gold futures jumped by 3.1% to $4,241.51 an ounce.

A proposed peace deal between the U.S. and Iran would include a commitment from Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a promise from Washington to lift oil sanctions, according to reports in Iranian state media.

Iran’s Mehr news agency said that a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the U.S. would also include the release of frozen Iranian funds, adding that final negotiations will focus on nuclear and economic issues. However, discussions about Iran’s missile program will be excluded, Mehr reported.

The draft requires finalization by relevant authorities, the report said.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were last down by 4.3% at $86.47 a barrel. The contract slipped below $90 a barrel on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that an agreement to end the war in Iran, now in its fourth month, may be close.

While Brent oil remains well above pre-war levels, a decline may help ease some fears of an energy-driven inflation spike leading to central bank interest rate hikes. An elevated interest rate environment may not bode well for non-yielding assets like gold.

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week, but markets anticipate that it will raise borrowing costs before the end of the year. Bets at the beginning of 2026 that the Fed would embark on a rate-cutting cycle have been all but eradicated as well.

“We are lowering our forecasts to reflect the expected delayed start of Fed rate cuts to 2027 and the resulting reduction in expected ETF gold demand in 2026. The environment for the yellow metal will likely remain challenging in the near term, but we continue to see a constructive outlook over the medium term as Fed rate cuts moderate real rates and the U.S. dollar," analysts at UBS said in a note.

This week, the European Central Bank became the first major central bank to increase rates, with officials underlining a need to corral price pressures linked to the Iran war.

Elsewhere, gold was supported by a weakening in the U.S. dollar, potentially making bullion more attractive for overseas buyers. The dollar has been bolstered throughout the war, underpinned by safe-haven demand and the belief that the U.S. economy, a major energy exporter, may be relative insulated from an energy shock.

U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday, buoyed by reports that the U.S. and Iran have held peace talks despite trading recent strikes, while technology shares eyed a tentative recovery. 

S&P 500 Futures rose 56 points, or 0.8%, by 05:59 ET (09:59 GMT), Nasdaq 100 Futures jumped 333 points, or 1.1%, and Dow Jones Futures rose 392 points, or 0.8%. 

Futures had fallen earlier on Wednesday after sharp losses on Wall Street -- driven by hot U.S. consumer price growth and ongoing tensions in the Middle East -- battered sentiment. Heavyweight technology stocks tumbled amid growing uncertainty over artificial intelligence spending and higher interest rates, although gains in Nasdaq futures pointed to some recovery in the sector. 

U.S.-Iran carry on talks despite fresh strikes - report

The U.S. and Iran carried on negotiations over a potential peace deal overnight, even after they launched a exchange of air attacks for a second straight day, CNN reported.

Meanwhile, Washington and Tehran are still in talks over a preliminary deal which would includes a mechanism to unfreeze Iranian funds, Reuters reported, citing Iranian sources. Efforts to forge such an agreement have intensified, the report added.

Yet uncertainty has continued to surround the discussions, with President Donald Trump warning of more action against Iran if the country did not immediately accept a peace deal.

The U.S. struck multiple military targets in Iran through late-Wednesday and early-Thursday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement, describing the attacks as “self-defense” after the downing of an American helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz this week.

Iran retaliated by launching strikes against several U.S. military bases and allies in the Gulf, with explosions heard across Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, according to unconfirmed media reports. Iran also said it had blocked all ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a claim that CENTCOM denied. The latest hostilities come after the U.S. and Iran intermittently traded strikes over the past two weeks amid a flare-up in broader tensions in the region.

"[W]hile the rhetoric from both sides is heated, it doesn’t appear that a full resumption of hostilities is occurring," analysts at Vital Knowledge said.

Iran also traded strikes with Israel over the latter’s hostilities against Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. The Israeli military on early Thursday warned of projectile launches from Lebanon.

Oracle slides as AI spending target overshadows earnings

Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) slid in aftermarket trade on Wednesday evening after the cloud company forecast capital expenditures of up to $95 billion in fiscal 2027, much higher than Wall Street expectations of about $68 billion.

The firm also said it will raise $40 billion in debt and equity financing in 2027, largely overshadowing stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings.

Oracle has been aiming to position itself as a major data center provider for customers such as OpenAI. But its forecast for outsized spending in 2027 comes amid some doubts over the long-term sustainability of the AI trade – a notion that had sparked a broad rotation out of tech over the past week.

Uncertainty over Oracle and AI spending was furthered by a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI was planning to drastically cut its AI prices, as the ChatGPT-maker faces heightened competition from rival Anthropic. 

Declines in tech sector shares, especially in big-name chipmakers, have hit Wall Street in recent sessions. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% on Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite slid nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9% -- its worst day of 2026 so far. 

Tech was also pressured by fears of higher interest rates, which were exacerbated by an acceleration in U.S. consumer price growth in May. Bets that the Federal Reserve will lift rates by the end of the year were bolstered. A separate gauge of producer price gains, due out later today, may provide further insight into inflation.

Elsewhere, investors are focused this week on the possible $1.75 trillion listing of SpaceX on Friday, which stands to be the biggest flotation in history. 

Gold prices fell for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, as fresh U.S. strikes on Iran kept energy-driven inflation concerns in focus.

Spot gold slipped 1.5% to $4,195.85 per ounce by 03:26 ET (07:26 GMT), reaching its lowest level since March 23.

U.S. Gold Futures also dropped 1.6% to $4,217.75, as investors reduced exposure ahead of key U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data due later on Wednesday.

Washington launched new strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday following the downing of a U.S. military helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting fears of broader disruptions to global energy supplies.

Iran said on Wednesday that it had targeted U.S. bases in Jordan and several Gulf states in response to the U.S. attacks.

Oil prices rose around 1% on Wednesday, adding to concerns that higher fuel costs could feed into inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

The prospect of persistent inflation has prompted investors to scale back expectations for U.S. rate cuts. 

More than 70% of market participants are pricing in a Fed rate hike by December.

Higher interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding bullion by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.

Treasury yields remained near multi-month highs while the dollar stayed firm ahead of the inflation report.

The U.S. Dollar Index traded flat near a two-month peak hit earlier this week.

Investors are closely watching the CPI data for signs of whether inflationary pressures are accelerating. Economists expect annual consumer inflation to rise to around 4.2% in May, which would mark the highest reading since April 2023 and could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive policy stance.

Among other precious metals, silver prices fell 1.4% to $64.42 per ounce, while platinum dropped 3% to $1,678.05/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged down 0.2% to $13,548.33 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures fell 0.3% to $6.30 a pound.

Oil prices fell more than 1% in Asian trade on Tuesday as traders weighed a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran after both sides agreed to halt attacks following an appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump.

As of 01:57 ET (05:57 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in August fell 1.2% to $93.08 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 1.5% $89.89 per barrel.

Brent prices had briefly surged above $98 on Monday amid renewed military exchanges between Israel and Iran before retreating as signs of de-escalation emerged.

Market sentiment improved after Trump said Israel and Iran were seeking an immediate ceasefire, and both countries later indicated they had paused strikes for now.

"Final negotiations on ’Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way," Trump wrote on social media.

Trump said on Monday evening that the U.S. was close to declaring a "total victory" in the Iran war, and that oil prices were likely to fall sharply.

The latest truce followed a weekend flare-up that saw missile exchanges and attacks on petrochemical facilities.

Investors remained cautious as the ceasefire remains fragile and could unravel if either side resumes military operations. Iran has warned it could restart attacks if Israeli operations continue, while negotiations toward a broader peace agreement remain ongoing.

The continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also kept a floor under prices. The passage remains closed by a double blockade maintained by Tehran and Washington

Traders are also monitoring the impact of OPEC+ supply increases scheduled for the coming months. While the producer group has been gradually restoring output, the additional barrels are unlikely to fully offset disruptions linked to the Hormuz crisis.

Investors also await the upcoming U.S. consumer inflation data on Wednesday and producer prices figures on Thursday, which could help determine whether the recent rebound in oil prices is feeding into broader price pressures.

Oil prices jumped nearly 5% on Monday after Israel struck a petrochemical plant in southwestern Iran and other military targets in retaliation for Iran’s missile barrages toward Israel, threatening a fragile ceasefire and dimming hopes for a negotiated end to the conflict.

As of 02:16 ET (06:16 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in August advanced 4.7% to $97.44 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 4.5% to $94.62 per barrel.

Both contracts ended last week with modest gains, with fresh hostilities across the Middle East dampening truce hopes.

The gains extended after Israel said it had targeted military sites in western and central Iran, as well as a petrochemical facility near Mahshahr, marking one of the most significant attacks on Iranian energy-linked infrastructure since a ceasefire was reached in April.

The latest strikes came after Iran launched several rounds of missiles at Israeli targets in retaliation for Israeli attacks on the outskirts of Beirut.

U.S. President Donald Trump had urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate against Iran’s missile attack, according to reports.

The escalation has cast fresh doubt on a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire extension between Israel and Lebanon that took effect last week.

The developments renewed concerns about disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that handles roughly a fifth of global oil consumption.

Oil had fallen sharply late last week on hopes of de-escalation, with Brent settling near $93 and WTI around $90 on Friday, but those expectations were quickly reversed by the latest military exchanges.

On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to another increase in oil output quotas for July of 188,000 barrels per day, continuing its gradual rollback of voluntary production cuts. However, a blockage of exports from the Persian Gulf has prevented most producers from implementing the additional output.

The Hezbollah militia rebuffed a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, casting fresh doubt around the possibility of an imminent U.S.-Iran peace deal.

Tehran, which is aligned with Hezbollah militants, has made a cessation in fighting in Lebanon a key demand in peace negotiations with Washington. The U.S. and Israel launched a joint assault on Iran in late February that has since spread to include other areas of the Middle East, including Lebanon.

In a statement, Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem described the U.S.-brokered agreement between Israel and Lebanon earlier this week as "absurd, humiliating, and insulting," adding that Israel must fully withdraw from Lebanon before Hezbollah would halt its attacks, according to the Associated Press.

Kassem argued that Israel-Lebanon agreement, which the U.S. State Department said was contingent upon Hezbollah stopping strikes on Israeli forces and withdrawing soldiers from the contested area of southern Lebanon, was a "road map for the annihilation of a section of the Lebanese people and the enslavement of the rest," the Wall Street Journal reported.

According to AP, the Hezbollah announcement came as Israeli attacks killed at least four people. Lebanese troops moved into areas of southern Lebanon on Thursday which have been the scene of intense fighting for months, the AP said, citing state media.

Still, Israel has said it would carry on its offensive in southern Lebanon, with Defense Minister Israel Katz saying operations to raze what it describes as militant infrastructure would continue, the WSJ reported.

All of these developments have left the actual status of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire mired in uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly been at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s push to attack Hezbollah positions in Beirut, the WSJ said. Iran has threatened to put a stop to peace discussions with Washington should Israel strike the Lebanese capital.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, inched lower on Friday, but were on pace for its first weekly gain in three weeks. Oil prices have gained since the start of the Iran conflict, due largely to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed to tanker traffic for months, crimping global energy supply flows.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to renew their shaky ceasefire, bolstering hopes for an eventual peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.

An agreement between Washington and Tehran has been contingent upon a cessation to fighting in Lebanon, where U.S.-aligned Israeli forces have been battling Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. 

Following a fourth round of U.S.-mediated discussions, both Israel and Lebanon said the truce would be "contingent on a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and the evacuation of all Hezbollah operatives" from areas south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon.

"These steps will enable progress towards a comprehensive peace and security agreement," a joint statement said.

Hezbollah, notably, did not take part in the negotiations.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, edged down in the wake of the ceasefire announcement, sliding by 1.3% to $96.55 a barrel. 

U.S. won’t resume Iran attacks unless American forces killed, Trump tells aides - WSJ

U.S. President Donald Trump privately told his aides that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if American troops were killed, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday evening. 

Trump’s comments come after the U.S. and Iran traded a series of air strikes over the past week, testing an already tenuous ceasefire between the two countries.

The U.S. largely described the recent attacks as “self-defense,” while Iran accused Washington of violating their ceasefire. But, according to the WSJ report, U.S. officials insisting that the ceasefire remained intact despite recent hostilities. 

At least 15 U.S. service members have been killed and 543 injured in the Iran war, the U.S. military said. Iranian casualties are estimated to be at least above 6,000. 

Trump had earlier this week intervened to call off Israeli plans for a military offensive in Lebanon after Iran said the attack threatened diplomatic progress. 

Iranian media reports said that Tehran had halted indirect negotiations with the United States. Trump has repeatedly claimed that talks with Iran remained in progress, and recently said a peace deal could be achieved soon. 

Iran’s nuclear ambitions have remained a key point of contention, with Tehran repeatedly rejecting demands from the U.S. to hand over its enriched uranium.

Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz largely blocked amid recent hostilities, while the U.S. maintained its naval blockade against the country’s ports.  

Trump has signaled that he is in no hurry to achieve a peace deal, saying in a podcast interview published Wednesday that the U.S. blockade could last until the U.S. Labor Day in September.

Trump and his administration had earlier vowed the Iran conflict would last no more than six weeks. The war entered its fourth month this week. 

Yet the White House appears to be facing escalating demands at home to end the war. The House of Representatives, despite being controlled by Trump’s Republican party, voted in favor of a resolution blocking the president from continuing the conflict on Wedndesday. The measure still needs Senate approval, as well as the backing of two-thirds majorities in both chambers to override a veto from Trump.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, rebounding from recent losses, as a fall in oil prices helped to ease some worries over an energy-induced inflation burst and central bank interest rate increases.

By 06:18 ET (10:18 GMT), spot gold had jumped by 1.0% to $4,528.32 an ounce, while gold futures gained 1.2% to $4,558.62 an ounce.

The yellow metal fell sharply in the prior session, after media reports said Iran had halted sending mediated messages to the U.S. in response to increased Israeli military activity against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The development sparked heightened concerns over a prolonged war in the Middle East which would leave the Strait of Hormuz effectively shuttered for an extended period of time. Worries have abounded that continued closure of the strait, a vital waterway for a fifth of the world’s oil, could spark an energy-fueled inflation wave that may lead central banks to hike interest rates.

This, in turn, would likely not bode well for non-yielding assets, including gold.

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, dipped, after having surged in the preceding session.

"Gold prices have diverged from oil trends due to concerns of persistent inflation driven by a more varied set of causes, and rising real interest rates," analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note.

U.S.-Iran talks uncertainty

Lebanon has announced a partial ceasefire between Iran-backed Hezbollah militants and Israel, although Israel’s military said it had intercepted two projectiles fired from Lebanon on Tuesday, according to Reuters.

Citing Lebanon’s embassy in Washington, Reuters reported that truce was limited and would not end the fighting in Lebanon, which has become a sticking point in peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. The embassy called on Israel, an ally of the U.S., to refrain from striking Beirut and Hezbollah-controlled suburbs, the report said.

Along with launching a joint assault with the U.S. on Iran in late February, Israel has also sent military forces into southern Lebanon.

U.S. President Donald Trump has stressed that Hezbollah had promised, through mediators, not to attack Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to pull back from assaulting Beirut, Trump claimed.

Earlier, the president told ABC News on Monday that he thinks a peace deal with Iran that would extend an ongoing ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could happen "over the next week," after a report said Tehran had stopped communications with Washington.

The president said “there was a little glitch,” likely referring to Iran’s objection to Israeli aggression against Lebanon, which had reportedly spurred Tehran’s walking away from negotiations.

It was not immediately clear whether U.S.-Iran negotiations had resumed.

Gold prices fell on Monday as fresh military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran dampened ceasefire negotiation hopes, reinforcing inflation fears that have fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year.

Spot gold fell  0.8% to $4,501.54 an ounce by 02:57 ET (06:57 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures declined 1.3% to $4,532.22.

The precious metal ended the previous week with marginal gains on hopes of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension.

The U.S. military said it struck Iranian military sites over the weekend, targeting air-defense and drone-related facilities after Iran allegedly downed a U.S. drone.

Tehran responded by attacking an air base used by U.S. forces, while regional air defenses intercepted missiles and drones.

At the same time, Israel ordered troops deeper into southern Lebanon as fighting with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group intensified.

While reports last week suggested both sides were discussing an extension of a temporary truce and the reopening of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, key issues remain unresolved, and any final agreement still requires approval from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Crude prices rebounded on Monday after the latest military moves, reinforcing concerns that energy costs could remain high and complicate the Fed’s inflation fight.

Investors have increasingly shifted focus toward the possibility of further U.S. monetary tightening. They had been expecting a cut before the war began.

Higher interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold.

The US Dollar Index edged up 0.1% in Asian hours, also pressuring the bullion, by making it costlier for buyers using other currencies.

Gold has struggled in recent sessions despite its traditional role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and inflation. The metal fell to a two-month low last week before recovering as ceasefire talks temporarily eased concerns over a broader regional conflict.

Traders are now closely watching speeches from Federal Reserve officials and upcoming U.S. economic data, including labor market indicators, for further clues on the interest-rate outlook. 

Among other precious metals, silver prices edged up 0.5% to $75.69/oz, while platinum rose 1.1% to $1,940.95/oz.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.3% to $13,663.33 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures also gained 0.3% to $6.44 a pound.

The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a deal to extend an ongoing ceasefire and launch further negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program, pending President Donald Trump’s final approval.

U.S. stock futures were muted on Friday, after edging higher following the news in the prior session. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices, the global oil benchmark, hovered around $93.75 a barrel, down from peaks above $100 a barrel yet still well above pre-war levels.  

Axios first reported Washington and Tehran had reached an agreement over a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU), but it still needed Trump’s nod, citing two U.S. officials. Other news outlets provided similar reports. 

Trump had been briefed on the details of the final deal and the president had asked for a couple of days to think about it, one of the U.S. officials said, according to Axios. The MoU will include "unrestricted" shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iran’s ports and coastline. The MoU will also include a commitment by Iran to not pursue a nuclear weapon.

Iranian media had reported on Wednesday that an unofficial draft of the peace deal would see Tehran restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, and that Iran and Oman would jointly manage traffic through the channel.

But Trump later largely dismissed the report, stating that no single country could control the vital waterway. "Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up," the president had said. 

Any agreement between the U.S. and Iran would represent the biggest breakthrough in a conflict that has dragged on since the end of February, when Washington and Israel launched a joint assault on Iran. All sides have been locked in a protracted ceasefire since the beginning of April as negotiations have continued.

Earlier, oil prices had been boosted and hopes for a peace deal had taken a dent after a fresh exchange of fire in the Gulf. U.S. Central Command said Iran late on Wednesday launched a ballistic missile towards Kuwait that was successfully intercepted by Kuwaiti forces. CENTCOM said the "egregious ceasefire violation" occurred hours after Iranian forces launched five attack drones in and near the Strait of Hormuz.

"All drones were successfully intercepted by U.S. forces which also prevented a sixth drone launch from an Iranian ground control site in Bandar Abbas," CENTCOM said.

Iran’s state media said the country’s armed forces had fired warning shots at four ships that had attempted to cross the strait without navy supervision, forcing them to turn back. State media also showed footage from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliating against the Bandar Abbas attacks.

The attacks marked a potential resumption in open hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, especially after Tehran warned of retaliation following U.S. strikes earlier this week. The U.S. military claimed that the attacks were in "self defense," and that a ceasefire with Iran remained. 

Separately, Israeli hostilities against Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon also continued, keeping tensions in the Middle East elevated.