Gold prices rose on Tuesday, buoyed by a softer U.S. dollar, as markets gauged hopes for a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

Spot gold edged up 0.7% to $4,773.34 an ounce by 05:49 ET (09:49 GMT), while gold futures added 0.7% to $4,800.12/oz. Bullion was supported by weakness in the dollar, with markets looking to some de-escalation in the Iran war despite an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Softness in the greenback can make gold more attractive to overseas buyers, possibly boosting demand.  

While gold is typically viewed as a bulwark against geopolitical strife, investors have broadly looked to the dollar for safety during the Middle East conflict. The U.S. is viewed as a net energy exporter, which could help insulate the American economy from disruptions to oil flows from the Persian Gulf. Signs of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, as a result, have recently weighed on the dollar and bolstered gold. 

Washington and Tehran have continued to engaged with one another and there has been some forward motion toward a permanent ceasefire deal, Reuters reported.

U.S. President Donald Trump has also noted that the White House had been contacted by Iranian officials who would like to "make a deal," adding that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. Washington has reportedly demanded that Iran agree not to enrich uranium, a key part of the process of building a nuclear weapon, for 20 years.

Meanwhile, Pakistan, which has emerged as a key mediator between the U.S. and Iran, has offered to host a second round of discussions prior to the end of the ongoing two-week ceasefire, according to reports. The first talks were held in Islamabad last weekend.

Elsewhere, Israel and Lebanon are due to begin direct peace talks in Washington on Tuesday. Air attacks by Israel on targets in Iran-aligned Hezbollah targets in Lebanon have been a key sticking point threatening the fragile halt to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will take part in the discussions between Israel and Lebanon, the WSJ said, quoting a State Department official.

Oil prices dipped back below $100 a barrel amid optimism for a possible deal to end the fighting in the Middle East. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, were last down by 0.9% to $98.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined by 2.0% to $97.07 a barrel. 

But crude prices remain well above pre-war levels. The energy shock has fueled concerns over a spike in inflationary pressures in countries around the world, denting expectations for central bank interest rate reductions. Gold tends to underperform in elevated rate environments.  

Traders will have the chance to parse through U.S. producer price index data later today. The numbers will be closely watched for signs of an energy-fueled inflation bump in March, especially after data last week showed that consumer price growth accelerated sharply.

Gold prices fell on Monday, coming under pressure from a stronger dollar after ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran largely fell through, sending traders into the dollar as a safe haven.

Bullion was also pressured by strong U.S. consumer price index inflation data from Friday, which further dented bets on any near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,720.67 an ounce by 01:06 ET (05:06 GMT), while gold futures fell 0.9% to $4,743.20/oz. 

Other precious metals also retreated, with spot platinum down slightly to $2,047.06/oz, while spot silver fell nearly 2% to $74.3975/oz. 

Dollar gains as U.S.-Iran talks fall through, Hormuz blockade looms

The dollar index rose some 0.4% on Monday, with the greenback benefiting from increased haven demand after ceasefire talks between Iran and the U.S. yielded little consensus.

Marathon talks were held in Pakistan over the weekend, but pointed to little de-escalation in the conflict as Washington and Tehran clashed over nuclear activities, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s support of militant groups in the Middle East.

U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after talks fell through, but later clarified that the blockade will target Iran’s ports and ships specifically. 

The blockade is set to begin from 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT), and could herald a military escalation in Iran. Tehran largely rebuked U.S. plans for the blockade. 

U.S. CPI rises sharply in March on energy boost 

Adding to pressure on gold, U.S. consumer price index inflation data showed a sharp increase in March, as the Iran war spurred increases in fuel prices.

CPI grew 3.3% year-on-year in March, missing expectations of 3.4%, but rising sharply from 2.4% in February. 

The data stoked increased concerns over higher oil and gas prices– due to the Iran war– spurring increased inflation across the globe. The Strait of Hormuz, a key energy shipping route, has remained largely closed since late-February, with a U.S. blockade heralding scant prospects for reopening. 

The CPI data spurred a further paring back in bets on any interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for at least the next 12 months, CME Fedwatch showed. Such a scenario bodes poorly for gold and other non-yielding assets, with rate concerns having been a key driver of gold’s underperformance since the onset of the Iran war. 

Fears of steady rates largely overshadowed gold’s status as a safe haven, while a stellar rally in the yellow metal through late-2025 also deterred buyers. 

U.S. producer price index inflation is due later this week. 

Israel's military said it carried out attacks on Iran-aligned Hezbollah militants in Lebanon on Friday, potentially undermining hopes that a prolonged U.S.-Iran ceasefire can be forged in potential weekend talks.

A spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry has suggested that officials from the country may not attend peace negotiations in Pakistan, due to begin on Saturday, should Israel continue hitting Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

American and Iranian officials have been at odds over whether Lebanon was included in a ceasefire deal notched this week.

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he had ordered his government to start peace talks with the Lebanese government over a possible disarmament of Hezbollah. However, Netanyahu stressed that there remains "no ceasefire" in Lebanon.

More than 300 people were killed by Israeli strikes on Thursday, according to Lebanese authorities quoted by The New York Times.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said that he has asked Netanyahu to limit attacks on Lebanon, as he looks to prevent a fragile two-week ceasefire with Iran from collapsing.

All the while, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still near a virtual standstill, with Reuters reporting that shipping through the narrow waterway off of Iran's southern coast was well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday despite the ceasefire. Iran, whose chokehold on the strait has threatened the flow of around a fifth of the world's oil, has told vessels that they must keep to its territorial waters while making any sailings.

Several Asian countries are heavy importers of crude products which traverse the strait, while Europe uses natural gas from Persian Gulf nations which have been targeted by Iranian attacks.

Bombardments of Saudi energy facilities have also slashed the kingdom's oil output capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day and throughput on its East-West Pipeline by roughly 700,000 barrels per day, Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday.

The prospect of slow protracted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in production in Saudi Arabia, a major crude center in the Middle East, pushed up oil prices.

Trump suggested that Iran is "doing a very poor job" of allowing oil to flow through the strait and warned Tehran from collecting fees from some ships making crossings. The Wall Street Journal, citing an Iranian lawmaker, said the country was raking in $2 million from tolls charged on some ships.

Goldman Sachs nudged down its second-quarter oil price forecast after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though the bank kept its medium-term outlook unchanged and said that risks remain tilted to the upside.

Brent crude and WTI futures fell to the mid-$90s per barrel on Wednesday following the ceasefire announcement. Goldman strategists said the developments were "largely in line" with their baseline expectation that energy flows through the Strait would begin recovering over the weekend, followed by a gradual one-month return of Persian Gulf exports to pre-war levels.

The bank lowered its second-quarter Brent and WTI forecasts to $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively, down from $99 and $91, citing the reduced risk premium at the front of the curve and early signs of recovering oil flows through the Strait.

Its third- and fourth-quarter forecasts for Brent were left unchanged at $82 and $80, with WTI at $77 and $75.

Strategists cautioned that the situation remains uncertain, highlighting Vice President Vance’s description of the Iran truce as "fragile." They continue to see price risks skewed to the upside from potentially longer disruptions and persistent crude production losses.

In an adverse scenario where the ceasefire fails and Strait reopening is delayed by a month, Goldman sees Brent averaging $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter, assuming full recovery of Persian Gulf production.

In a severely adverse scenario involving persistent production losses of 2 million barrels per day, it sees prices reaching $115.

On natural gas, the European benchmark TTF fell sharply to 45 EUR/MWh following the ceasefire news. Goldman lowered its second-quarter TTF forecast to 50 EUR/MWh from 70 EUR/MWh previously, pointing to unexpectedly weak Chinese LNG demand that has kept European LNG imports above prior projections and reduced the need for as large a risk premium.

The bank’s second-half TTF forecast was little changed at 42 EUR/MWh, modestly below current forwards of 46 EUR/MWh.

Strategists said gas price risks also remain skewed higher. Should LNG flows through the Strait face further delays or infrastructure damage, they said the market "would require broader demand destruction, likely driving TTF prices to test a higher range above 75 EUR/MWh."

Gold climbed to almost a three-week high on Wednesday, while the U.S. dollar weakened, after President Donald Trump agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Iran.

Spot gold was up 1.6% at $4,778.95 an ounce by 05:46 ET (09:46 GMT), after earlier reaching its highest point since March 19. U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose by 2.6% to $4,807.34 an ounce.

Trump said in a social media post that he would suspend military action against Iran for two weeks, adding that the U.S. had already achieved its core military objectives.

Earlier in the day, Trump had warned that all of Iranian “civilization" would be eradicated if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his 8:00 p.m. Eastern deadline.

The ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan after last-minute diplomatic efforts, is conditional on Iran ensuring the safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for roughly 20% of global oil flows.

Iran also signaled a conditional willingness to de-escalate, saying safe passage through the strait would be possible during the ceasefire period, provided hostilities were halted and vessels coordinated with Iranian authorities.

Trump also said on Wednesday that the U.S. would help ease the traffic buildup in the strait.

Oil price plunge, dollar slips

Markets reacted swiftly, with oil prices plunging by more than 15% and risk assets rallying, while the dollar came under pressure.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currency pairs, fell, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Despite bullion’s traditional appeal as a safe-haven asset, it had come under pressure last month as oil prices surged sharply, stoking inflation concerns and raising expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. Gold tends to underperform in elevated rate environments.

Market participants were also looking ahead to the U.S. March consumer price index (CPI) report due on Friday, which is expected to provide one of the first clear indications of the impact of the recent surge in energy prices due to the war.

Economists expect headline inflation to have accelerated on a monthly basis, driven largely by higher fuel costs, potentially complicating the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, while the dollar weakened, with investors keeping a wary eye on U.S. President Donald Trump’s impending deadline to Iran to unblock the Strait of Hormuz.

Spot gold inched up by 0.8% to $4,685.54 per ounce by 05:04 ET (09:04 GMT), while gold futures for June delivery ticked up by 0.6% to $4,710.84 per ounce.

Trump vowed to decimate "every bridge" and "power plant" in Iran should the Islamic Republic not agree by his Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline to a deal which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz -- whose effective closure to tanker traffic has pushed up oil prices, threatening to drive inflation higher and weigh on global growth. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil squeezes through the waterway off of Iran’s southern coast.

Iran, for its part, has called for a permanent settlement that includes sanctions relief, security guarantees, and compensation for damages, although media reports suggested that the White House was not likely to accept the demands.

If the fresh U.S. attacks happen, Trump warned, it would take Iran "100 years to rebuild."

But the bellicose language was accompanied a caveat from Trump that a diplomatic resolution could be reached to the war, which began with joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.

Also aiding sentiment around gold was China’s central bank, which maintained its purchases of the metal for a seventeenth straight month. Its reserves stood at 74.38 million fine troy ounces by the end of March, compared to 74.22 million in the prior month.

Gold remains lower over past month

The yellow metal has slumped over the past one-month period, as the prospect of an energy-fueled inflation spike underpinned expectations that central banks around the world may opt to leave interest rates higher for longer. Non-yielding bullion tends to underperform in elevated rate environments.

Adding to the downward pressure on gold has been the U.S. dollar. The greenback has strengthened as investors rush to it as a safe haven, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

On Tuesday, the dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of its peers, had dipped by 0.2%.

But the dollar remains higher by around 0.8% over the past month. During that time, spot gold has dropped by more than 8%.

The war in Iran will once again likely be top of mind as a new trading week gets underway, with investors sifting through both ongoing air attacks and hopes for a possible ceasefire. Oil prices remain well above pre-war levels, underscoring worries over an energy shock that could become even more apparent in upcoming U.S. inflation data. Results from carrier Delta Air Lines and beverage group Constellation Brands will also be in focus, as quarterly earnings season is set to ramp up later this month.

1. Iran war

Traders will be returning to their desks after a holiday-shortened week to conflicting signals from the raging conflict in the Middle East.

On the one hand, Iran and the United States have received a framework to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, several media outlets reported, citing sources aware of the proposals. The plan could take effect as early as Monday.

According to the Associated Press, the plan has been put together by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey and was exchanged with both sides overnight. It reportedly follows a two-stage approach: an immediate ceasefire followed by a broader comprehensive agreement.

Meanwhile, Axios first reported Sunday that the U.S., Iran and regional mediators were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a two-phase deal that could lead to a permanent end to the war, citing U.S., Israeli and regional sources.

Yet despite hopes for an impending end to the fighting, the war has continued to intensify, with Iran and Israel launching fresh strikes at each other. Over the weekend, in a social media post and media interviews, U.S. President Donald Trump also issued a new warning that the U.S. would strike Iran’s power facilities if the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows, is not unblocked by Tuesday evening. Iran has rejected the ultimatum.

2. Oil prices remain elevated

Oil prices ticked down on Monday, retreating from some recent gains, due to hopes for an imminent end to the war in Iran.

However, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, remain not far from $110 a barrel, and well above levels prior to the start of the conflict in late February. Before the outbreak of the war, Brent was exchanging hands at around $70 a barrel.

The energy-price shock has fueled fears of a spike in inflation which could weigh on growth prospects for countries around the world and impact a wide array of industries. Some analysts have suggested that only the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could alleviate these gathering pressures.

On Sunday, the OPEC+ said it had agreed to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, although the uptick would likely be just on paper because critical members of the producer group are largely unable to expand production because of the war in Iran.

3. Inflation data ahead

Highlighting the economic calendar will be the release of the U.S. consumer price index for March, which observers will be assessing for any indication of the inflationary effects of the conflict in Iran.

Given the jump in crude prices, analysts have suggested that one of the major focal points of the CPI reading on April 10 will be a potential rise in motor fuel costs. Average U.S. gasoline prices climbed above $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years last week.

Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation closely monitored by the Federal Reserve.

But the PCE index will cover February, a period which mostly did not include the war in Iran, meaning that it is unlikely to reflect any significant impact from the fighting. Still, the figure could offer a glimpse into the state of inflation in the U.S. before the war took hold.

Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting are also set to be unveiled this week, and could provide more clues into the trajectory of the central bank’s monetary policy. The Fed held interest rates steady last month.

4. Delta Air Lines to report

War-fueled inflation may also factor into how the quarterly earnings season is viewed by Wall Street, with investors hoping that solid profits will help mitigate some of the knock-on effects of the conflict.

According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, S&P 500 companies are seen notching a 14.4% rise in first-quarter earnings compared to a year ago -- a potential sign that underlying corporate activity is healthy despite pressure from higher energy prices.

An initial batch of results are due out in the coming days, before the first-quarter reporting period kicks into gear next week.

Among the standouts on the docket is Delta Air Lines, which is scheduled to report before the opening bell on Wednesday.

Prior to the beginning of the fighting in the Middle East, the airline industry had been predicting record profits of $41 billion in 2026, Reuters reported. Whether carriers can remain profitable may end up depending on the longevity of the oil price spike, as it has forced airlines around the globe to hike fares and slash capacity.

5. Constellation Brands earnings

Elsewhere, Constellation Brands, the group behind beer names like Modelo Especial and Corona, is due to report after the bell on Wednesday.

Shares of the company have slid by more than 16% over the past one-year period, but have rallied by over 9% so far this year.

In January, Constellation Brands said it has been supported by demand for brews like Pacifico, Victoria, and Corona Familiar despite a challenging market for U.S. alcohol sales.

Yet executives flagged at the time that beer sales could stay volatile because of economic uncertainty and high unemployment among Hispanic customers, one of its largest customer bases.

UBS is maintaining its bullish outlook on gold, forecasting the metal to reach new highs this year as upside risks build, the bank’s strategist Joni Teves said in a Thursday note. 

The bullion has come under pressure in recent weeks as markets focused on the inflationary impact of higher oil prices and the prospect of further rate hikes, with rising U.S. real yields and a stronger dollar weighing on prices.

However, Teves sees the pullbacks as buying opportunities. "The risk that gold extends its bull run for a couple more years is rising. Weaker growth that triggers fiscal and/or monetary stimulus presents upside risks for gold," Teves noted.

"Our gold outlook is unchanged and we maintain our view that gold should see new highs this year. We think any pullbacks present opportunities for investors to build positions," he added.

UBS forecasts gold averaging $5,000 per ounce in 2026, revised down 4% from a prior estimate of $5,200, with the adjustment reflecting mark-to-market changes following gold’s retreat from its all-time high in late January. The bank’s 2027 and 2028 forecasts remain unchanged at $4,800 and $4,250, respectively.

Teves said speculative positioning has been flushed out and ETF outflows have been contained, leaving room for investors to rebuild. Gold ETFs in China have continued to see net inflows and onshore physical demand has remained healthy, which the strategist said could keep imports strong into the second quarter.

UBS views the market as underinvested and said it would view any pullback toward the $4,000 level as an opportunity to build positions. "There has been a structural shift in the gold market, wherein a widening base of private and public sector investors are viewing it as a long-term strategic asset that helps diversify and protect portfolios," the note said.

On silver, UBS trimmed its 2026 forecast to $91.9 per ounce from $105, though it still expects the metal to outperform gold when prices rally. Teves warned that silver’s role as an industrial metal leaves it exposed to any slowdown in global growth, which could drag on demand and dampen investor sentiment.

As a result, he said the gold-to-silver ratio "is likely to struggle to retest the lows earlier this year," with the ratio potentially bottoming only in the 50-60 range rather than revisiting the ~40 level seen earlier this year.

Platinum and palladium face similar headwinds from weaker industrial demand, though both could find support from supply concerns, particularly if Middle East tensions disrupt South African mining operations, the strategist said.

Gold prices slipped on Thursday, snapping a four-session winning streak as investors reacted to renewed escalation signals from U.S. President Donald Trump on the Iran conflict.

Spot gold was last down 2.6% at $4,637.25 per ounce by 03:41 ET (07:41 GMT), after climbing as high as $4,800.58/oz earlier in the session.

U.S. Gold Futures declined 3.1% to $4,664.15/oz.

Gold prices gained in the last four sessions amid some signs of easing geopolitical tensions and declining oil prices.

Among other precious metals, silver prices plunged 5.1% to $71.26 per ounce, while platinum fell 3.3% to $1,902.60/oz.

Trump vows to hit Iran ’extremely hard’ over next 2-3 weeks

Sentiment shifted after Trump said in a televised address that the U.S. would ramp up military operations against Iran over the next “two to three weeks,” reiterating Washington’s stance on preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

"We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong," Trump said.

The remarks marked a reversal from earlier comments this week, when Trump said the U.S. could leave Iran within a similar timeframe, even without a formal agreement.

Markets have remained highly sensitive to shifting rhetoric around the conflict, as investors reassess geopolitical risks.

Oil rebounds sharply, US dollar jumps

Oil prices rebounded sharply after President Trump’s speech, reinforcing concerns about inflationary pressures, which could keep interest rates elevated and limit the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.5% after two sessions of losses, making gold costlier for holders of other currencies.

Investors are also awaiting U.S. jobs data on Friday for cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, which remains a key driver for bullion.

Benchmark Copper Futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.4% to $12,286.33 a ton, while U.S.Copper Futures lost 1.3% to $5.54 a pound.

Most Asian currencies steadied on Wednesday after posting strong gains overnight, while the U.S. dollar weakened as risk sentiment improved following signs of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

The US Dollar Index edged 0.1% lower in Asian trading after settling 0.6% lower overnight.

US Dollar Index Futures also traded down 0.1% as of 23:52 ET (03:52 GMT).

Trump says Iran war could end soon; Hormuz risks remain

Investors reacted to comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that Washington could end its military campaign against Iran within “two to three weeks,” raising hopes of a near-term resolution.

The improved sentiment stoked a rally in risk assets, with Asian stock markets surging on Wednesday.

However, investors were cautious as a Wall Street Journal report said that Trump was willing to end the U.S. military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, underscoring persistent risks to global trade and energy supply.

Prospects for a durable peace deal between the United States and Iran remain uncertain despite recent diplomatic signals, analysts at MUFG said.

They noted key sticking points, including Iran’s internal power structure, the strategic leverage of the Strait of Hormuz, and broader regional tensions, warning that even a U.S. withdrawal could leave an “extremely unstable equilibrium.”

The Japanese yen's USD/JPY pair was largely muted after slipping 0.6% in the previous session.

The South Korean won's USDKRW pair edged up 0.2% on Wednesday, after falling 0.7% overnight.

The Indian rupee's USD/INR pair rose 0.2% to 93.68 rupees, after dropping 1% on Tuesday. The currency hit a record low of 95.22 rupees in the previous session.

China factory activity expands, but input costs surge

Economic data from China also underscored underlying pressures in the region.

The RatingDog Manufacturing PMI showed factory activity expanded for a fourth straight month in March, but growth slowed and missed expectations, highlighting a moderation in momentum.

The survey pointed to sharply rising input costs, driven in part by elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, with manufacturers facing the fastest increase in input prices since March 2022.

The Chinese yuan's onshore pair USD/CNY pair was largely muted while the offshore pair USD/CNH ticked down 0.2%.

Elsewhere, the Singapore dollar's USD/SGD pair traded flat. 

The Australian dollar's AUD/USD rose 0.2% on Wednesday.

Investors are now looking ahead to upcoming U.S. economic data, including the nonfarm payrolls report later this week, for further direction on monetary policy and currency markets.