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Futures lower; Trump’s Iran decision timeline in focus - what’s moving markets
2025-06-20 19:34:55

U.S. stock futures hover below the flatline, with markets still wondering if the U.S. could become involved in an intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran. The White House says President Donald Trump will make a decision on the matter within two weeks, while European foreign ministers are set to meet with Iranian officials as they look to ease tensions in the region. Brent crude prices drop, but are on track for a positive week, as worries remain over potential supply disruptions due to the fighting.


1. Futures dip


U.S. stock futures edged lower on Friday, as investors eyed developments in an ongoing air war between Israel and Iran that has now entered its second week.


By 03:36 ET (07:36 GMT), the Dow futures contract had slipped by 89 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had fallen by 10 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had dropped by 32 points, or 0.1%.


On Thursday, the main averages on Wall Street were closed for a public holiday, while global stocks declined and the U.S. dollar strengthened, with traders hunting for perceived safe havens in response to uncertainty around potential U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict.


Markets were also assessing a wave of central bank decisions, including announcements from the Bank of England, Norges Bank, and Swiss National Bank. A murky economic outlook due to Trump’s often erratic trade agenda played heavily into policymakers’ thinking. On Wednesday, officials at the Federal Reserve chose to leave interest rates unchanged and adopt a wait-and-see attitude to future policy changes.


2. Trump to decide on Iran strike within two weeks


Trump has said he will opt whether to join Israel in its air bombardments against Iran "within two weeks," according to the White House.


Reading a statement from Trump on Thursday afternoon, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the timeline was "based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future."


She declined to say if Trump would attempt to gain Congress’s approval before taking any military action against Iran.


Investors have been eagerly awaiting any clarity around Trump’s plans. Earlier this week, Trump suggested that he "may" or "may not" bombard Iranian nuclear sites.


Israel and Iran’s exchange of air strikes is now in its eighth day. The conflict began with surprise attacks by Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities, a move that Israel has defended as necessary to prevent Tehran from developing its nuclear weapons capabilities. Iran responded with its own barrage, and has claimed that its nuclear program is peaceful.


Neither side has indicated that they will back down. On Friday, European foreign ministers are set to meet in Geneva with their Iranian counterpart in a bid to ease the tensions.


3. Brent crude falls


Brent crude futures slumped on Friday following the White House’s comments, although the contract is on course to rise for a third consecutive week.

At 03:38 ET, Brent crude futures -- the price barometer for much of the world’s oil market -- had fallen by 2.3% to $77.02 per barrel. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August inched down by 0.1% to $73.84 per barrel.


Oil prices spiked by nearly 3% on Thursday, although trading volumes were relatively light due to the U.S. holiday. Oil has broadly gained since the beginning of the Israel-Iran fighting, with traders fretting that the conflict could spill into the wider Middle East region and possibly disrupt crucial supply flows -- particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which runs along Iran’s southern coast.


Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar lost some momentum, as "markets still struggle to gauge the probability of the U.S." joining the conflict, analysts at ING said in a note to clients.


4. Home Depot bids for GMS - WSJ


DIY chain Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is making an offer for building-products distributor GMS, the Wall Street Journal has reported, citing people familiar with the matter.


The exact price of Home Depot’s bid could not be determined, the WSJ noted. Shares in GMS (NYSE:GMS) soared in extended hours trading.


On Wednesday, dealmaker Brad Jacobs’ QXO announced it had submitted its own unsolicited proposal to purchase GMS for roughly $5 billion, or $95.20 a share in cash.


Georgia-based GMS, which supplies tools and building materials for consumers and contractors, has been at the center of speculation around a potential takeover, as firms look to take advantage of a recent need for more housing in spite of tariff-related economic uncertainty.


5. SoftBank’s Son pitching $1 trillion AI hub in U.S. to TSMC, White House - Bloomberg News


SoftBank Group Corp. (TYO:9984) founder Masayoshi Son is seeking to partner with chipmaker TSMC and the Trump administration to build a $1 trillion, artificial intelligence-dedicated complex in the U.S., Bloomberg News reported on Friday.


Son plans to build a manufacturing hub and industrial complex that could rival China’s Shenzhen, the Bloomberg report said, citing people familiar with the “billionaire’s thinking.”


The complex will include production lines for building AI-powered industrial robots, and is largely aimed at bringing back high-tech manufacturing to the U.S., which is also a key goal of the Trump administration.


The proposed project is called “Project Crystal Land,” the Bloomberg report said, and it was unclear if TSMC was already involved in the venture. Son had reportedly discussed potential tax incentives with U.S. government officials, including Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and has also reached out to other tech firms for the project.