By Hyunjoo Jin and Joyce Lee

SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea's Hyundai Motor (OTC:HYMTF) Group said on Thursday it planned to boost domestic investment by 19% to a record high of 24.3 trillion won ($16.65 billion) this year to secure future growth even as it grapples with economic and political uncertainties.

Hyundai Motor Group, including Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp, ranks third in global vehicle sales behind Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG_p).

The planned investment by Hyundai Motor Group includes 11.5 trillion won in research and development for next-generation products, electrification, software-defined vehicles, hydrogen-fuelled products and other technology.

It will also spend 12 trillion won on ordinary investments such as adjusting production lines to make electric vehicles and new models and about 800 billion won on strategic investments such as for autonomous driving, the statement said.

"Hyundai Motor Group is making the largest investment ever in South Korea this year because it believes that continuous and stable investments are essential to overcome the crisis and secure future growth engines in the face of growing uncertainties," the group said, without directly describing the crisis it faced.

Hyundai Motor Group Executive Chair Euisun Chung last week referred to a recession and global conflicts as external risks for the company.

Shares in Hyundai Motor and Kia were up 2.3% and 3.8% respectively in early trade after the news, while the broader market was up 0.1%.

Hyundai and Kia said last week they aimed to grow their combined global sales by 2% to 7.39 million vehicles in 2025, after reporting a dip in 2024 sales and missing their targets.

South Korea's consumer sentiment dropped the most since the 2020 pandemic in December, hit by political uncertainty following President Yoon Suk Yeol's declaration of martial law and his impeachment.

In the United States, President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose universal 10% tariffs on imported goods.

Hyundai Motor started production at a new factory in the U.S. state of Georgia last year to make its vehicles eligible for the Biden administration's tax credits, which Trump threatened to scrap.

($1 = 1,459.6900 won)

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

The British bond market has become the focus of global investor attention, for some unenviable reasons.

A 20-basis point spike in benchmark gilts this week to the highest since 2008 is being linked by analysts to a welling crisis of confidence in Britain's fiscal outlook, despite no obvious catalyst for the current wave of selling.

Some are mulling the potential for a rout akin to the one that followed former premier Liz Truss' disastrous mini budget of September 2022.

To be sure though, while the market views gilts as the centre of the bond storm, there are plenty more reasons to be a seller.

The euro zone is bracing for elevated bond supply amid an acceleration in inflation, which helped German bund yields pop to a five-month high on Wednesday.

And of bigger global consequence, the uncertain impact of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs and immigration curbs on inflation have both investors and Federal Reserve officials concerned.

The economic data stateside is already flashing warning signs about the stickiness of price pressures, spurring traders to pare bets for Fed easing this year to just 41 basis points, shy of the 50 basis points Fed officials mooted just last month.

Yields on benchmark Treasuries pushed to the highest since April at 4.73% before the notes found buyers.

Caution is likely to win out today in Europe, heading into a market holiday in the United States that will shutter Wall Street and shorten Treasuries trading.

There is also trade and output data from Germany on tap, along with euro-region retail sales figures.

A parade of potentially revelatory central bank speak is in the pipeline as well, with Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden giving a speech on the outlook for inflation and monetary policy at the University of Edinburgh business school.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Philly Fed President Patrick Harker and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin also take the podium at various venues.

That's ahead of the big macro event of the week, which looms on Friday in the form of the monthly U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: * Germany industrial production, trade data (both November) * Euro zone retail sales (November) * BoE Deputy Governor Breeden speaks * Fed officials Bowman, Collins, Schmid, Harker and Barkinspeak * U.S. stock market holiday

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's consumer prices barely rose in 2024 while factory-gate prices extended into a second straight year of declines, official data showed on Thursday, weighed by persistently weak domestic demand.

A combination of job insecurity, a prolonged housing downturn, debt and tariff threats from the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has hit demand, even as Beijing ramps up stimulus.

The full-year consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2%, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, in line with the previous year's pace and well below the official target of around 3% for last year, suggesting inflation missed annual targets for the 13th straight year.

In December, the CPI crept up 0.1% year-on-year, slowing from November's 0.2% increase and the weakest pace since April. That was in line with forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, nudged up slightly to 0.4% last month from 0.3% in November, the highest in five months.

Upstream, the producer price index fell 2.3% year-on-year in December, slower than the 2.5% fall in November and an expected 2.4% decline. Factory-gate prices have remained deflationary for 27 straight months.

The pickup in core consumer prices and the slower pace of factory deflation suggested "policy stimulus is providing some support to demand and prices," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China Economics.

"But with the prop from stimulus likely to be short-lived, we think underlying inflation will drop back again later this year."

In addition to an electric vehicle price war that is entering its third year, discounting is now broadening across the retail sector to include bubble tea shops and other discretionary items.

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures crept lower on Wednesday evening as investors grappled with the prospect of slower interest rate cuts in 2025 while also speculating over increased trade tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. 

Futures fell after a muted session on Wall Street, as the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting struck a hawkish chord, while also raising some concerns over the impact of Trump's planned tariffs.

CNN reported on Wednesday that Trump was considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a series of universal trade tariffs, as well as duties on China. 

S&P 500 Futures fell 0.1% to 5,955.75 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.1% to 21,338.50 points by 18:16 ET (23:16 GMT). Dow Jones Futures steadied at 42,878.0 points. 

U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for a national day of mourning to honor the death of former President Jimmy Carter. 

Fed minutes reiterate hawkish outlook, Trump tariff concerns 

The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting showed policymakers were increasingly leaning towards a slower pace of interest rate cuts this year, amid persistent concerns over stalling disinflation. 

The minutes reiterated the central bank’s hawkish stance, after it effectively halved the number of rate cuts projected for 2025 to two from four.

The central bank cut interest rates by a total of 1% in 2024, but is now expected to cut rates only marginally in 2025, amid signs of sticky inflation and a robust labor market.

Wednesday's minutes also showed some Fed officials were concerned that protectionist policies under Trump will keep inflation underpinned, while also stymieing economic growth. Officials warned that the inflation fight could take longer than expected due to "the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy."

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's inflation-adjusted real wages fell for the fourth straight month in November weighed down by higher prices even as base pay grew at the fastest pace in more than three decades, government data showed on Thursday.

The Bank of Japan considers various risks in deciding the timing for raising interest rates and the central bank has repeatedly said sustained, broad-based wage hikes are a prerequisite for pushing up borrowing costs.

Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of consumer purchasing power, slipped 0.3% in November from a year earlier, falling for the fourth straight month, data from the labour ministry showed. It revised October's unchanged reading to a 0.4% decline.

The consumer inflation rate that the government uses to calculate real wages and includes fresh food prices but not rent or equivalent, rose 3.4% from a year earlier, accelerating from a 2.6% growth in October, reflecting higher inflationary pressure.

Base salary, or regular pay, rose 2.7% in November, marking the fastest increase since 1992, the data showed, after major companies agreed to higher pay at the spring wage negotiations.

Overtime pay, a barometer of business strength, grew 1.6% for the month from a revised 0.7% gain in October. Special payments, mainly volatile one-off bonuses, climbed 7.9% in November, after a revised 2.2% fall in October.

Total (EPA:TTEF) cash earnings, or nominal pay, grew 3.0% to 305,832 yen ($1,935.03) for the month, the data showed.

Large Japanese firms are likely to raise wages by about 5% in 2025, the same as last year, the chair of a major business lobby said on Tuesday while pledging efforts to spread the wage growth momentum to smaller firms.

The government of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has put pay rises at the top of its public policy agenda with Ishiba promising to push for wage growth at this year's spring negotiations.

At last year's talks, Japanese firms delivered their biggest pay hike in 33 years.

($1 = 158.0500 yen)

By Maria Martinez

(Reuters) -German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in November, sapped by a decline in large orders, showing that a recovery in the industrial sector is not in sight.

Industrial orders declined by 5.4% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, the federal statistics office said on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast no change.

Excluding large orders, orders were 0.2% higher than the previous month, the statistics office said.

In a less volatile three-month comparison, incoming orders between September and November were 1.7% higher than the previous three months.

nvesting.com-- Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Wednesday, extending a bounce from the prior session as U.S. industry data pointed to a drop in oil inventories, while production by OPEC countries was seen falling.

Prices gained some ground this week amid persistent signs of strength in the U.S. economy, while traders bet that cold weather in the U.S. and Europe will buoy demand. 

Brent oil futures expiring in March rose 0.5% to $77.41 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.5% to $73.97 a barrel by 20:37 ET (01:37 GMT). Both contracts were close to their highest levels since mid-October. 

US inventories shrink sharply- API 

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday that U.S. oil inventories shrank by more than 4 million barrels in the week to January 3, substantially more than expectations for a draw of 250,000 barrels. 

The reading marked a second straight week of draws for inventories, as the world’s biggest fuel consumer saw increased travel during the year-end holiday season. Cold weather in the country, stemming from a polar vortex, is also expected to spur demand for distillates, especially heating oil.

The API data usually heralds a similar reading from government inventory data, which is due later on Wednesday. 

Shrinking inventories herald tighter oil supplies in the U.S., and also signal healthy demand in the country. 

OPEC output seen dropping December

Data from Reuters showed oil production by countries in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell in December, with maintenance activity in the United Arab Emirates offsetting a production hike in Nigeria.

Bloomberg data showed Russia’s oil production fell below its 8.978 million barrels per day target in December.

The OPEC and its allies had pushed forward plans to begin increasing production until at least the second quarter of 2025, amid persistent weakness in oil prices.

Concerns over slowing demand in China and strong production outside the OPEC had weighed on oil prices, as had recent strength in the dollar. 

Oil prices lost about 3% in 2024. 

Investing.com-- Asian stocks were a mixed bag on Wednesday, with Chinese markets seeing sustained losses after the U.S. added more major firms to a blacklist, while Japanese markets fell after government officials warned of intervention in the currency market.

Regional markets showed some resilience in the face of a negative lead-in from Wall Street, as a mix of technology stock losses and anxiety over interest rates battered U.S. stock benchmarks on Tuesday.

Losses in NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) were the biggest weight on Wall Street, as a flurry of new products from the company failed to lift its share price. 

Wall Street futures were marginally higher in Asian trade on Wednesday. 

South Korean stocks were an outlier, with the KOSPI rising 1.1%. Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (KS:005930), the biggest stock on the index, rose 2.7% even as its fourth-quarter earnings missed expectations by a wide margin. 

Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.6% as consumer price index data showed inflation grew more than expected in November. But a mild decline in underlying inflation spurred bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates sooner, rather than later. 

Singapore’s Straits Times index rose 0.4%, while futures for India’s Nifty 50 index pointed to a positive open, before a barrage of major earnings due in the coming days. 

While Asian stocks saw some gains this week, they were still nursing a weak start to 2025 amid growing uncertainty over U.S. interest rates and policy under incoming President Donald Trump. 

Chinese stocks extend losses after US adds more firms to blacklist 

China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes fell about 0.8% each, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed 0.9%. 

Chinese officials lambasted the U.S. government’s decision earlier this week to add technology giant Tencent Holdings Ltd (HK:0700) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology (SZ:300750) to a blacklist of firms with ties to the U.S. military. 

The move stands to further sour ties between the world’s largest economies, and comes as incoming Trump prepares to impose steep trade tariffs on the country.

Trump had denied reports earlier this week that his administration will impose less strict tariffs than initially signaled. 

Among individual movers, BYD (HK:1211) fell more than 2% in Hong Kong trade after Reuters reported that the firm will be fined for allegedly violating labor laws at a factory in Brazil. 

Japanese stocks fall on yen warning

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 0.3%, while the TOPIX shed 0.8% after both indexes clocked strong gains in the prior session. 

Local markets were spooked by government officials warning that further weakness in the yen could invite currency market intervention. The yen slid to a near six-month low this week. 

Any intervention is likely to spark a sharp recovery in the yen, which in turn could pressure Japanese exporters, which make up a bulk of the Nikkei’s weightage. 

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures moved little on Tuesday evening, steadying after growing uncertainty over slower interest rate cuts and steep losses in Nvidia weighed heavily on Wall Street. 

Losses in NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) pressured the broader technology sector, as did a spike in Treasury yields after economic data pointed to sustained inflationary pressures, furthering the case for a slower pace of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

S&P 500 Futures fell 0.1% to 5,950.75 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures steadied at 21,358.50 points by 18:16 ET (23:1 GMT). Dow Jones Futures fell slightly to 42,778.0 points. 

Nvidia slides after Huang speaks at CES 2025 

Nvidia was by far the worst performing major technology stock on Tuesday, sliding 6.2% from record highs. The stock rose marginally in aftermarket trade. 

CEO Jensen Huang unveiled a flurry of new products at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas on Monday, including a new range of graphics chips, in-house artificial intelligence models, more tie-ups with automakers on self-driving, and even a desktop supercomputer. Huang also said the firm’s next generation of Blackwell AI chips were now in full production.

But while the update does bode well for Nvidia’s long-term prospects, some analysts noted that it did little to spur the company’s near-term outlook. 

A bulk of the announcement also appeared to be priced into the stock, given that it hit a series of record highs in the run-up to Huang’s address. 

The stock was walloped by a heavy dose of profit-taking, after Nvidia tripled in market value through 2024. 

Other major technology stocks also retreated, with Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) losing over 1% after the stock was slapped with its second sell rating in three months. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) slid 4.1% after BofA downgraded the stock on concerns over stretched valuations and potential difficulties in meeting its lofty AI ambitions. 

Wall St spooked by inflation, rate jitters 

Wall Street indexes slid on Tuesday, pressured by a spike in Treasury yields as stronger-than-expected job openings data pointed to persistent strength in the labor market.

Stronger-than-expected purchasing managers index data also pushed up concerns over sticky inflation.

Sticky inflation and strength in the labor market are expected to give the Fed less impetus to cut interest rates sharply in 2025, with the bank having warned as much during its December meeting. 

Fed officials reiterated this stance over the weekend, further rattling investor sentiment.

Focus this week is squarely on nonfarm payrolls data for December, due on Friday, for more cues on interest rates.

The S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,909.50 points, while the NASDAQ Composite slid 1.9% to 19,491.65 points on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% to 42,529.28 points. 

By Jamie McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -U.S. financial markets last year were more sensitive to economic surprises than usual, and as Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as U.S. president investors should buckle up for more of the same in 2025.

Especially in Treasuries.

The 10-year yield's sensitivity to inflation and activity data surprises last year was the highest in more than 20 years, according to Goldman Sachs. Although inflation has fallen, growth fears have ebbed, and the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates, these sensitivities persist.

Again, especially in Treasuries.

While equities' sensitivity to inflation surprises has fallen as price pressures have cooled, it remains high by historical standards. And stocks' sensitivity to growth surprises, though still modest, has begun to tick up to near pandemic-era levels.

What does this mean for the coming year? While benchmark gauges of implied equity and bond volatility are muted, markets are in a more tenuous position than they were a year ago. By many measures, such as pricing, sentiment and valuations, they are extremely stretched.

U.S. stocks have never been riding higher or represented a bigger share of the global market cap, and the Fed's 100 basis points of interest rate cuts since September have been met with a counterintuitive 100-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield.

Does this mean America's key markets are primed for correction? Maybe. But what's easier to say with confidence is that we're going to see wider intra-day trading ranges and short-term reversals as investors contend with the biggest wild card of all: Trump's agenda.

'VOLATILITY MAN'

History shows there is a "solid" relationship between macro and market volatility, as Citi's Stuart Kaiser points out. And with the world still in the dark as to how Trump's trade and tariff policies will pan out and how the Fed will respond, macro uncertainty is alive and well.

    Indeed, the two biggest "tail risks" for world markets cited in Bank of America's latest fund manager survey were "global trade war triggers recession" and "inflation causes Fed to hike." Both captured 37% of respondents' votes, significantly more than the 10% garnered by "geopolitical conflict," the third most-cited risk.

"With numerous large policy shifts on the horizon, markets should be prepared for a lot more volatility ahead," Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn)'s George Saravelos said on Monday.

    It is true that the initial year of Trump's first term, 2017, turned out to be a good one for Wall Street, as the S&P 500 index rose 19%, despite Trump's unpredictable actions. But that was a period of low inflation, low interest rates, and solid growth. Such low macro volatility is unlikely to be replicated this time. And given the stretched nature of today's markets, even modest economic surprises could spark big moves.

    Just look at the sharp swings in U.S. stocks and the dollar on Monday in response to a media report – later dismissed by Trump – implying that his proposed tariff regime would be less severe than feared.

    But even if macro "vol" does increase, will it be enough to puncture the generally bullish 2025 market consensus? Perhaps not, suggests Phil Suttle, a Washington-based economist. "(Markets) will be quite volatile but without much significant net direction, as the perceived odds of these different (tariff) scenarios oscillate," Suttle wrote on Monday in a note titled "Volatility Man."

  It is also possible that investors will increasingly ignore Trump's social media posts on markets, economic policy or the Fed, as they eventually did in his first term, especially if real-world economic indicators remain stable. But it's far too early for that right now.

    Given the combination of stretched markets and an unpredictable commander in chief, markets will feature a lot of sound and fury in 2025. It could be a bumpy ride.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Paul Simao)