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Oil prices rise after bruising losses; tariff risks, OPEC report in focus
2025-03-12 14:36:50

Investing.com-- Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Wednesday, recovering mildly after increased concerns over U.S. trade tariffs and slowing economic growth dragged prices to over three-year lows. 


Focus was now squarely on a monthly report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for more cues on supply, especially after the cartel agreed to begin increasing production earlier this month. 


Oil gained some ground this week after plummeting to more than three-year lows, although sentiment remained largely on edge amid persistent concerns over slowing demand and tariff-related disruptions. 


Expectations of some supply disruptions in Russia also aided prices, after Ukraine claimed it had attacked a major oil refinery in Moscow. This came after Kyiv agreed to a tentative ceasefire deal brokered by the U.S., which Moscow is yet to accept.


Brent oil futures expiring in May rose 0.5% to $69.92 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.6% to $66.30 a barrel by 21:34 ET (01:34 GMT). 


Canada threatens oil export curbs over US tariffs 

Oil markets tumbled over the last three weeks on concerns over increased tariffs under U.S. President Donald Trump, who had last week imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a 20% duty on top oil importer China. 


While Trump did order temporary relief for Canada and Mexico, the countries, along with China, announced their own retaliatory measures, marking the beginning of a global trade war. 


Canadian officials threatened to limit energy exports to the U.S.- a scenario that could spur some tightening in oil supplies. But such measures will be contingent on the U.S. imposing steeper tariffs.


Trump has largely kept up his threats of reciprocal tariffs, which he says will be imposed in early-April. 


OPEC report awaited for demand, supply cues 

Focus on Wednesday was on the OPEC’s monthly report, which comes just weeks after the cartel acquiesced to Trump’s demands of increasing production, albeit marginally. 


The report will be watched for any more insight into the cartel’s plans for production, with several member countries having flagged plans to increase production further in 2025. 


The OPEC’s outlook for global demand- which the cartel has steadily cut over the past year- will also be in focus, especially amid signs of more stimulus measures in top oil importer China. 


US inventories, CPI data awaited 

Traders were also awaiting more cues on the world’s biggest oil consumer, with inventory and consumer price index inflation data due later on Wednesday. 


Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a much bigger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories, heralding a similar trend from official inventory data.


CPI data is expected to show inflation remained largely sticky in February, pointing to few chances of monetary easing in the near-term.