The war in Iran will once again likely be top of mind as a new trading week gets underway, with investors sifting through both ongoing air attacks and hopes for a possible ceasefire. Oil prices remain well above pre-war levels, underscoring worries over an energy shock that could become even more apparent in upcoming U.S. inflation data. Results from carrier Delta Air Lines and beverage group Constellation Brands will also be in focus, as quarterly earnings season is set to ramp up later this month.

1. Iran war

Traders will be returning to their desks after a holiday-shortened week to conflicting signals from the raging conflict in the Middle East.

On the one hand, Iran and the United States have received a framework to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, several media outlets reported, citing sources aware of the proposals. The plan could take effect as early as Monday.

According to the Associated Press, the plan has been put together by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey and was exchanged with both sides overnight. It reportedly follows a two-stage approach: an immediate ceasefire followed by a broader comprehensive agreement.

Meanwhile, Axios first reported Sunday that the U.S., Iran and regional mediators were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a two-phase deal that could lead to a permanent end to the war, citing U.S., Israeli and regional sources.

Yet despite hopes for an impending end to the fighting, the war has continued to intensify, with Iran and Israel launching fresh strikes at each other. Over the weekend, in a social media post and media interviews, U.S. President Donald Trump also issued a new warning that the U.S. would strike Iran’s power facilities if the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows, is not unblocked by Tuesday evening. Iran has rejected the ultimatum.

2. Oil prices remain elevated

Oil prices ticked down on Monday, retreating from some recent gains, due to hopes for an imminent end to the war in Iran.

However, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, remain not far from $110 a barrel, and well above levels prior to the start of the conflict in late February. Before the outbreak of the war, Brent was exchanging hands at around $70 a barrel.

The energy-price shock has fueled fears of a spike in inflation which could weigh on growth prospects for countries around the world and impact a wide array of industries. Some analysts have suggested that only the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could alleviate these gathering pressures.

On Sunday, the OPEC+ said it had agreed to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, although the uptick would likely be just on paper because critical members of the producer group are largely unable to expand production because of the war in Iran.

3. Inflation data ahead

Highlighting the economic calendar will be the release of the U.S. consumer price index for March, which observers will be assessing for any indication of the inflationary effects of the conflict in Iran.

Given the jump in crude prices, analysts have suggested that one of the major focal points of the CPI reading on April 10 will be a potential rise in motor fuel costs. Average U.S. gasoline prices climbed above $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years last week.

Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation closely monitored by the Federal Reserve.

But the PCE index will cover February, a period which mostly did not include the war in Iran, meaning that it is unlikely to reflect any significant impact from the fighting. Still, the figure could offer a glimpse into the state of inflation in the U.S. before the war took hold.

Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting are also set to be unveiled this week, and could provide more clues into the trajectory of the central bank’s monetary policy. The Fed held interest rates steady last month.

4. Delta Air Lines to report

War-fueled inflation may also factor into how the quarterly earnings season is viewed by Wall Street, with investors hoping that solid profits will help mitigate some of the knock-on effects of the conflict.

According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, S&P 500 companies are seen notching a 14.4% rise in first-quarter earnings compared to a year ago -- a potential sign that underlying corporate activity is healthy despite pressure from higher energy prices.

An initial batch of results are due out in the coming days, before the first-quarter reporting period kicks into gear next week.

Among the standouts on the docket is Delta Air Lines, which is scheduled to report before the opening bell on Wednesday.

Prior to the beginning of the fighting in the Middle East, the airline industry had been predicting record profits of $41 billion in 2026, Reuters reported. Whether carriers can remain profitable may end up depending on the longevity of the oil price spike, as it has forced airlines around the globe to hike fares and slash capacity.

5. Constellation Brands earnings

Elsewhere, Constellation Brands, the group behind beer names like Modelo Especial and Corona, is due to report after the bell on Wednesday.

Shares of the company have slid by more than 16% over the past one-year period, but have rallied by over 9% so far this year.

In January, Constellation Brands said it has been supported by demand for brews like Pacifico, Victoria, and Corona Familiar despite a challenging market for U.S. alcohol sales.

Yet executives flagged at the time that beer sales could stay volatile because of economic uncertainty and high unemployment among Hispanic customers, one of its largest customer bases.