Goldman Sachs nudged down its second-quarter oil price forecast after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though the bank kept its medium-term outlook unchanged and said that risks remain tilted to the upside.

Brent crude and WTI futures fell to the mid-$90s per barrel on Wednesday following the ceasefire announcement. Goldman strategists said the developments were "largely in line" with their baseline expectation that energy flows through the Strait would begin recovering over the weekend, followed by a gradual one-month return of Persian Gulf exports to pre-war levels.

The bank lowered its second-quarter Brent and WTI forecasts to $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively, down from $99 and $91, citing the reduced risk premium at the front of the curve and early signs of recovering oil flows through the Strait.

Its third- and fourth-quarter forecasts for Brent were left unchanged at $82 and $80, with WTI at $77 and $75.

Strategists cautioned that the situation remains uncertain, highlighting Vice President Vance’s description of the Iran truce as "fragile." They continue to see price risks skewed to the upside from potentially longer disruptions and persistent crude production losses.

In an adverse scenario where the ceasefire fails and Strait reopening is delayed by a month, Goldman sees Brent averaging $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter, assuming full recovery of Persian Gulf production.

In a severely adverse scenario involving persistent production losses of 2 million barrels per day, it sees prices reaching $115.

On natural gas, the European benchmark TTF fell sharply to 45 EUR/MWh following the ceasefire news. Goldman lowered its second-quarter TTF forecast to 50 EUR/MWh from 70 EUR/MWh previously, pointing to unexpectedly weak Chinese LNG demand that has kept European LNG imports above prior projections and reduced the need for as large a risk premium.

The bank’s second-half TTF forecast was little changed at 42 EUR/MWh, modestly below current forwards of 46 EUR/MWh.

Strategists said gas price risks also remain skewed higher. Should LNG flows through the Strait face further delays or infrastructure damage, they said the market "would require broader demand destruction, likely driving TTF prices to test a higher range above 75 EUR/MWh."