Gold was holding mostly steady on Thursday, as investors parsed through the details of a key summit of U.S. and Chinese leaders taking place against the backdrop of the ongoing Iran war.
By 06:09 ET (10:09 GMT), spot gold had risen by 0.2% to $4,698.20 an ounce, while gold futures were mostly unchanged at $4,704.70 an ounce.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have ended their first round of talks during a two-day summit, with Xi telling state media that negotiations around trade in particular were making progress. However, he flagged that pushback from the U.S. over Taiwan could sour relations.
Markets were especially keen for any update on possible discussions around the Iran war. Some analysts have suggested that Trump may attempt to persuade China, a major importer of Iranian oil, to act as a guarantor of a lasting peace agreement, although it remains uncertain whether Beijing would want to play such a role.
While the leaders and top business executives gather in China, the world’s economy faces a murky outlook due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway off Iran’s southern coast through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows. Iran and the U.S. have instituted twin blockades of the conduit, bringing tanker traffic to a virtual standstill.
Oil prices have soared well above pre-war levels of roughly $70 a barrel, placing upward pressure on inflation, fueling expectations that central banks could react by raising interest rates. This may not bode well for gold, a non-yielding asset which tends to underperform in higher rate environments.
The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, elevating him to the helm of the central bank just as policymakers are grappling price pressures that may make it harder to justify delivering rapid and aggressive rate cuts frequently demanded by Trump. Warsh will replace outgoing chair Jerome Powell.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar was mostly flat. Investors have turned to the greenback during the Iran war, viewing the currency as a safe haven. Some observers have also argued that the U.S., as a major energy exporter, could be insulated from the energy shock sparked by the shuttering of the Strait of Hormuz.