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Australian home prices climb for fourth month in June

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australian home prices rose for a fourth consecutive month in June as a sustained squeeze on housing supply helped lift values nationwide, data showed on Monday.


Property consultant CoreLogic figures showed national home prices were up 1.1% in June from the previous month, after bottoming in February and starting a sustained rise.


Australia's households are among the most indebted in the world, while housing affordability has recently plumbed all-time lows.


The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% on Tuesday to curb stubbornly high inflation, although a Reuters poll of economists suggested the decision would be a close call.


Every state and territory capital except Tasmania's Hobart recorded higher prices for dwellings, according to CoreLogic. Sydney, Australia's biggest city and capital of New South Wales, led the way with a 1.7% surge. Brisbane, the capital of Queensland, followed at 1.3%.


CoreLogic's Tim Lawless said a lack of supply was still the main driver of price rises, adding that "the flow of new capital city listings was nearly 10% below the previous five-year average" in June.


While values continued to record "broad-based upswing", the pace of growth in most capitals slowed, according to CoreLogic.


"A slowdown in the pace of capital gains could be a reflection of a change in sentiment as interest rate expectations revise higher," Lawless said. 


"Higher interest rates and lower sentiment will likely weigh on the number of active home buyers, helping to rebalance the disconnect between demand and supply."

2023-07-03 11:01:11
Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead

Investing.com -- Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting will be the highlights of a holiday-shortened week. The stock markets go into the second half with a tailwind after strong gains in the first six months of the year. The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to make its latest rate decision while PMI data from China is likely to underscore the need for more stimulus measures


1. Nonfarm payrolls


Friday’s U.S. employment report will be the main event, with economists expecting the economy to have added 200,000 jobs in June.


In May, the economy added a far larger than forecast 339,000 jobs, although an uptick in the unemployment rate to a seven-month high of 3.7% indicated that labor market conditions were easing.


Signs of continued strength in the labor market could underline a view that has helped boost markets this year: that the U.S. economy can avoid a severe recession despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening.


"The labor market is probably going to end up proving to be the big catalyst for what may happen market-wise and also monetary policy-wise," Omar Aguilar, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of Schwab Asset Management told Reuters.


Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, markets will get updates on other areas of the labor market with data on private sector hiring from ADP, JOLTS job openings and weekly unemployment claims.


2. Fed minutes


The Fed on Wednesday is to publish the minutes of its June 13-14 meeting when it held rates steady after 10 straight rate hikes, but indicated that two more increases are coming this year, including one widely expected in July.


On Friday a gauge of inflation that is closely followed by the U.S. central bank indicated that price pressures are cooling, fueling hopes the Fed could be near the end of its rate-hiking cycle.


The minutes should give investors more insight into the debate over what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said is an increasingly even balance of risks between doing too little and going too far on policy tightening.


In comments last Thursday Powell reiterated that "a strong majority" of Fed policymakers expect they will need to raise interest rates at least twice more by year's end.


3. Second half gets underway


The U.S. stock market has rallied in the first half of 2023, powering higher despite a crisis in the banking sector and fears over the prospect of a recession.


The S&P 500 has risen 15.9% since the start of the year and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has gained 31.7%, for its biggest first-half increase in 40 years.


"We have had a pretty resilient market in the first half of this year,” Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones told Reuters. “The market needs one big question answered, and that is what does the economy look like in the back half of the year.”


Investors are hoping that the strong gains in the first half of the year will give a tailwind to markets going into the second half of the year, but this month will bring several market-moving events - Friday’s jobs report, followed by the start of second-quarter earnings season along with a key inflation report next week ahead of the Fed’s next policy decision on July 26.


4. RBA decision


The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its July policy meeting on Tuesday and markets are unsure of whether it might further raise the 4.1% cash rate or pause to see how past tightening is working.


The RBA has hiked interest rates by a huge 400 basis points in the past year in an attempt to cool demand and curb sky-high inflation.


Resilient retail sales data last Thursday suggested some cushion for another rate rise, a day after data showing that inflation slowed sharply in May to its lowest in 13 years saw an aggressive paring of tightening bets.


Prior to that, a blockbuster jobs report mid-month had seen hike bets rise, after getting wound down following surprisingly dovish minutes of the June meeting, showing the decision to raise rates was "finely balanced".


5. China factory PMI


China is to release the Caixin purchasing managers index on Monday which will give an update on the strength of the manufacturing sector as the post-COVID economic recovery in the world’s second-largest economy falters.


The data is likely to underscore the need for more stimulus measures amid weak demand both at home and abroad and prop up a weakening currency.


The yuan has lost nearly 5% to the dollar this year, becoming one of the worst-performing Asian currencies.


Widening bond yield differentials between the U.S. and China, fueled by growing monetary policy divergence have pressured the yuan.


--Reuters contributed to this report

2023-07-03 09:25:10
What could break as interest rates rise?

LONDON (Reuters) -Markets are on the alert to which sectors will buckle under the sharpest jump in interest rates in decades, with big rate moves this month in Britain and Norway a reminder that the tightening is not over.


Central banks may need longer to lower inflation and a fresh bout of financial turbulence could make the process even more protracted, the International Monetary Fund warns.


Stability has returned since March's banks turmoil, but warning lights are flashing elsewhere and tensions in Russia provide another possible trigger for stress.


Here is a look at some of the pressure points.


1/ REAL ESTATE: PART 1


Just as hopes for an end to Federal Reserve rate hikes boost the U.S. housing market, European residential property is suffering under rate hikes.


UK rates have jumped to 5% from 0.25% two years ago and 2.4 million homeowners will roll off cheap fixed rate mortgages onto much higher rates by end-2024, banking trade body UK Finance estimates.


Sweden, where rates rose again on Thursday, is one to watch with most homeowners' mortgages moving in lockstep with rates.


London Business School economics professor Richard Portes said, euro zone housing markets appear to be "freezing up" as transactions and prices fall. "You can expect worse in 2024 when the full effects of rate hikes come forth," he said.


2/ REAL ESTATE: PART 2


Having taken advantage of the low rates era to borrow aplenty and buy up property assets, the commercial real estate sector is grappling with higher debt refinancing costs as rates rise.


"The single most important thing is interest rates. But not just interest rates; what it is equally important is the predictability of rates," said Thomas Mundy, EMEA head of capital markets strategy at real estate firm JLL.


"If we were settled on an interest rate, real estate prices could adjust. But at the moment, the lag in the adjustment to real estate pricing is creating an uncertain environment."


In Sweden, high debts, rising rates and a wilting economy has produced a toxic cocktail for commercial property.


And HSBC's decision to leave London's Canary Wharf for a smaller office in the City highlights an office downsizing trend rocking commercial real estate markets.


3/ BANK ASSETS


Banks remain in focus as credit conditions tighten.


"There is no place to hide from these tighter financial conditions. Banks feel the pressure of every central bank," said Lombard Odier Investment Managers' head of macro Florian Ielpo.


Banks hold two types of balance sheet assets: those meant for liquidity and those that work like savings meant to earn additional value. Rising rates have pushed many of these assets 10%-15% lower than their purchase price, Ielpo said. Should banks need to sell them, unrealised losses would emerge.


Most at risk are banks' real estate assets. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell says the Fed is monitoring banks "very carefully" to address potential vulnerabilities.


Lending standards for the average household are also a concern. Ielpo expects consumers will stop paying loan payments in the third and fourth quarters.


"This will be the Achilles heel of the banking sector," he added.


4/ DEFAULT


Rising rates are taking a toll on corporates as the cost of their debt balloons.


S&P expects default rates for European sub-investment grade companies to rise to 3.6% in March 2024 from 2.8% this March.


Markus Allenspach, head of fixed income research at Julius Baer, notes there were as many defaults globally in the first five months of 2023 as there were during 2022.


French retailer Casino is in debt restructuring talks with its creditors. Sweden's SBB has been fighting for survival since its shares plunged in May on concern over its financial position.


"We are starting to see distress building up in the corporate space, especially at the low end where you have most floating rate debt," said S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) Ratings' Nick Kraemer.


5/ RUSSIA AFTER WAGER MUTINY


The Wagner mutiny, the gravest threat to Russia's Vladimir Putin's rule to date, might have been aborted, but will long reverberate. Any changes to Russia's standing - or to the momentum behind the war in Ukraine - could be felt near and far.


There's the immediate fallout for commodity markets from crude oil to grains, the most sensitive to domestic changes in Russia. And knock on effects, from inflation pressures to risk aversion in case of a major escalation, could have far reaching consequences for countries and corporates already feeling the heat from rising rates.


"Putin can no longer claim to be the guarantor of Russian stability and you don't get that kind of fragmentation and challenges to the system in a stable and popular regime," said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

2023-06-30 17:02:10
Yen weakens past key 145 per dollar level; yuan falls after China PMI data

By Rae Wee


SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The yen weakened past 145 per dollar on Friday, a level which kept speculators wary of potential intervention from Japanese authorities, while a faltering economic recovery in China also kept pressure on the yuan.


The yen bottomed at 145.07 per dollar in early Asia trade, its lowest in over seven months, and was headed for a quarterly loss of more than 8%.


Its renewed decline has stoked speculation that intervention by Japanese authorities could be imminent, particularly as the level of 145 per dollar first prompted them to shore up the yen in September.


"I don't think there's a huge line in the sand, because if the other major currencies of major trading partners also move in tandem, it doesn't make sense for them to intervene," said Saktiandi Supaat, Maybank's regional head of foreign exchange research and strategy.


"But of course, people will see 145 as the historical level."


Data on Friday showed core consumer prices in Tokyo rose 3.2% in June from a year earlier, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 13th consecutive month.


Also on Friday, an official factory survey showed Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for a third consecutive month in June.


The onshore yuan fell to its lowest since November at 7.2615 per dollar shortly after trading opened on Friday.


Chinese authorities this week ramped up efforts to slow yuan depreciation, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) fixing stronger-than-expected midpoint rates and state banks selling dollars both onshore and offshore.


"Their efforts are to slow the pace of the currency's depreciation ... but in general, in terms of fundamentals, I think the easing policy of the PBOC and the economic environment there doesn't support the (yuan)," said Maybank's Supaat.


The Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, slipped 0.12% to $0.6608.


The New Zealand dollar rose 0.02% to $0.6070.


MORE HIKES AHEAD


The U.S. dollar was firmer in early Asia trade and was on track to reverse two quarters of loss against six major peers, drawing support from bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve has further to go in raising interest rates to tame inflation.


The dollar index steadied at around 103.33 and was heading for a gain of about 0.7% in the second quarter.


The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, data on Thursday showed, while the Commerce Department the same day raised its estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product.


"The two economic data releases came in above market expectations and certainly reinforced the narrative of a resilient U.S. economy," said currency strategist Carol Kong at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY).


Sterling was last 0.06% higher at $1.2619 and was headed for a 1.4% monthly gain, as traders similarly price in more rate hikes from the Bank of England as Britain's inflation rate continues to run high.


The euro edged 0.11% higher to $1.0874 and was set to gain roughly 1.7% for the month against the backdrop of a still-hawkish European Central Bank.


"Even though there is still some tightening in the pipeline ... there will be an increasing emphasis on the time dimension of monetary policy," said Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank.


"The bottom line is that in the U.S., the euro zone and the UK, policy hasn't been restrictive enough for long enough to see a real impact on core inflation."

2023-06-30 15:05:06
Exclusive-Pakistan expects IMF deal in next 24 hours - finance minister

By Asif Shahzad


LAHORE (Reuters) -Pakistan's finance minister said a staff level agreement for a crucial bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund was "very close" and expected in the next 24 hours.


Islamabad is racing against time to unlock at least $1.1 billion under the lender's ninth review of a $6.5-billion Extended Fund Facility agreed in 2019. The programme expires on Friday.


"We are very close to signing a staff level agreement with the IMF," minister Ishaq Dar told Reuters late on Thursday.


"I think it should come some time tonight or maximum within 24 hours ... We have finalised everything."


A source familiar with talks told Reuters that Pakistan and the IMF were also in discussions for the release of the full $2.5 billion pending under the IMF programme.


The source said the staff level agreement was to set to initially unlock around $1.1 billion and then be followed by a "standby agreement" which could release the rest after the programme finishes on Saturday.


A representative for the IMF in Pakistan did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


The agreement, which would be subject to approval by the IMF board, has faced an eight-month delay.


The funds under discussion would offer some respite to Pakistan which is battling an acute balance of payments crisis and falling foreign exchange reserves.


A total of $4 billion have already been released. Dar had earlier told media the government was working on a mechanism to try to unlock the full $2.5 billion pending under the IMF programme.


It was unclear what portion of the funds would be released in the announcement he expected in the next 24 hours.

2023-06-30 13:57:37
Tokyo inflation points to broadening price pressure, tests dovish BOJ stance

By Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara


TOKYO (Reuters) -Core inflation in Japan's capital perked up in June and remained above the central bank's 2% target for the 13th month, a sign price hikes were spreading to broader sectors of the economy and keeping policymakers pressured to dial back ultra-easy policy.


The data for Tokyo, which is seen as a leading indicator of nationwide trends, will likely feed into expectations for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to phase out its massive stimulus this year.


However, there is uncertainty about how long households can weather price hikes and generate inflation driven more by demand, which holds the key to whether BOJ's 2% target can be achieved in a sustainable manner, analysts say.


"Inflationary pressure remains fairly strong as there are few signs companies are done hiking prices," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.


"The question is whether wages would rise enough to underpin consumption, and generate a positive wage-inflation cycle the BOJ hopes to achieve. The threshold seems quite high."


The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 3.2% in June from a year earlier, accelerating from a 3.1% gain in May. It slightly missed a median market forecast for a 3.3% gain.


An index that strips away both fresh food and fuel costs rose 3.8% in June from a year earlier after a 3.9% gain in May, the data showed.


SUSHI, TOILET ROLL PRICES JUMP


Aside from an increase in utility bills that kicked off in June, Tokyo consumers paid 9.6% more than year-before levels for a box of sushi and 17% for hamburgers, the June data showed.


A roll of toilet paper was 15.5% more expensive and a tax ride was 14.4% higher in June than the previous year's levels.


While companies offered wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, inflation-adjusted real pay continues to fall in a sign of pain consumers are feeling from the wave of price hikes.


A survey by Teikoku Databank on 195 food goods producers showed they plan to raise prices for a combined 3,385 items in October, a report released by the think tank showed on Friday.


Uncertainty over the global outlook also keeps Japanese policymakers cautious of ending ultra-low rates too hastily.


Japan's factory output fell more than expected in May, data showed on Friday, underscoring risks to the export reliant economy as aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes and soft Chinese growth cloud the outlook for global demand.


Markets are focusing on the BOJ's new quarterly growth and inflation projections due at its next rate review on July 27-28, for clues on how soon the central bank could phase out stimulus.


Many analysts expect the BOJ to revise up its core consumer inflation for the current fiscal year ending in March 2024 from 1.8% projected in April. Dai-ichi Life's Shinke sees inflation averaging anywhere between 2.5% and 3% this fiscal year.


BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly said the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose policy until stronger wage growth keeps inflation sustainably around its 2% target.


In an interview with Reuters conducted on Wednesday, BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino also said strong domestic demand and changes in corporate price-setting behaviour were emerging as new factors pushing up inflation. But he stressed the need to keep ultra-low interest rates for now.


"The BOJ may revise up its inflation forecast but probably keep policy steady in July," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.


"I don't think policymakers have changed their view it's still difficult for inflation to sustainably hit 2%."

2023-06-30 11:45:01
IMF board completes Ukraine loan review, allowing $890 million withdrawal

By David Lawder and Andrea Shalal


WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund's executive board on Thursday completed its first review of Ukraine's $15.6 billion loan program, allowing Kyiv to immediately withdraw $890 million for budget support as it mounts a major offensive against Russia's invasion.


The board's approval brings Ukraine's withdrawals under the program launched on March 31 to around $3.6 billion so far.


The IMF said Ukrainian authorities have made "strong progress" toward meeting reform commitments under "challenging conditions," meeting quantitative performance criteria through April and structural benchmarks through June.


"Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to have a severe impact on human and physical capital, and the environment, with loss of life, drop in living standards and rise in poverty, as well as damage to infrastructure," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a statement.


"Nevertheless, the Ukrainian people have been resilient, and the authorities' skillful policymaking and continued external support have helped support macroeconomic and financial stability," Georgieva added.


IMF Ukraine mission chief Gavin Gray told reporters the IMF is continuing to study the social, environmental and economic impacts of the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam earlier this month, which caused widespread flooding in southern Ukraine.


Gray said the IMF initially expects the disaster to increase food prices and push up inflation in the country.


Nonetheless, the IMF reiterated the 2023 Ukraine economic forecast, recently upgraded to growth of 1% to 3%, from a March forecast range of a 3% contraction to 1% growth, as the new loan program underpins the economy.


The IMF loan program, approved under new rules that allowed lending into a highly uncertain situation, forms part of a total $115 billion package of support, with $100 billion coming from donor governments.


The IMF expects to carry out its next review of Ukraine's program in late November or early December, the official added.


The IMF said it was important for Ukraine to continue its reform momentum, including strengthening its tax compliance, with new tax legislation expected in July, and to build a strong 2024 budget based on available resources.


Gray said Ukrainian authorities also needed to continue work on strengthening governance and fighting corruption, with new legislation passed by the end of September.


"These measures are important because their strategy of mobilizing resources for reconstruction requires private sector investors to be convinced that there is a level playing field in Ukraine, and for official donors to be convinced that their resources will be appropriately spent," Gray added.

2023-06-30 09:24:11
U.S. yield curve inversions deepen as Fed signals higher rates

By Davide Barbuscia


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Several parts of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have reached deeper levels of inversion, a sign that bond investors are increasingly worried about an economic slowdown as the Federal Reserve looks set to raise interest rates further.


An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones, reflecting bets that the central bank will need to cut rates to buoy an economy hurt by higher borrowing costs.


The yield curve's inversions deepened in June, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would likely raise rates two more times this year. Powell on Wednesday reiterated that two more hikes this year were likely, including an increase widely expected next month.


"Keeping rates higher for longer increases the chance that we move into a downturn," said Janet Rilling, a senior portfolio manager and the head of the Plus Fixed Income team at Allspring Global Investments. "So it is a logical reaction from investors that they would then expect, at some point, that the Fed's going to have to be more aggressive in cutting."


On Wednesday, yields on one-year Treasuries were as many as 153 basis points above those on 30-year Treasuries, the biggest inversion since 1981, according to Refinitiv data. The curve between five- and 30-year Treasuries, meanwhile, touched a low of -20.7 on Wednesday - the most inverted since March.


And the closely watched part of the curve that plots yields on two-year Treasuries against 10-year yields - a relatively reliable indicator of upcoming recession - has inverted further to below -100 basis points this week, close to the -108 bps level it touched before the March banking turmoil, in its turn the deepest since 1981.


The inversions are intensifying amid conflicting economic signals. Key areas of the U.S. economy, including housing and labor, have proven resilient despite higher rates. At the same time, however, signs of stress are piling up.


A recent Fed study showed the number of companies in financial distress was higher than during most previous tightening episodes since the 1970s, concluding that restrictive policies may contribute to a "marked slowdown in investment and employment in the near term."


 

2023-06-29 16:41:51
Bearish bets on Asian currencies firm as weak China growth weighs: Reuters poll

By Upasana Singh


(Reuters) - Investors increased bearish bets on most Asian currencies, as a stuttering post-pandemic recovery in China, the world's second-largest economy, weighed on sentiment, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.


Bearish bets on Thailand's baht and the Malaysian ringgit rose to their highest since early November, while investors raised their short positions on the yuan, according to the fortnightly poll of 12 analysts.


The ringgit has been among the worst performing currencies in the region this year, shedding about 5.8% so far.


The Malaysian currency remains tightly bound to the Chinese yuan, reflecting the country's strong trade links with China, analysts at ING said in a note.


The yuan has weakened 4.8% so far this year as weak consumer and private sector demand has sapped momentum from the post-pandemic recovery in China.


"China is in need of a credible economic recovery plan to boost the confidence of consumers and investors, and it is likely that the government will communicate that soon to revive animal spirits before the labour market conditions deteriorate further," said Fiona Lim, a senior FX strategist at Maybank.


"That is a key risk for investors, who are too bearish on Asian currencies."


Most of the responses to the poll were received after Chinese Premier Li Qiang said Beijing would take steps to boost demand and invigorate markets.


China's economic growth in the second quarter will be higher than the first and is expected to reach the annual economic growth target of around 5%, Li said.


Meanwhile, the baht's depreciation came as investors waited to see if the leading prime ministerial candidate has enough support to become the country's next premier.


Short positions were also increased on South Korea's won, the Singapore dollar and Indonesia's rupiah.


Bearish bets on the Philippine peso eased to a more than two-month low, while analysts stayed bullish on the Indian rupee, the sole outlier in the pack.


"As we anticipate funds to flow back into EM (emerging) markets when the U.S. Fed no longer requires raising rates, we maintain our expectations that EM currencies will appreciate in the latter part of the year," analysts at MIDF Research said in a note.


Futures see a near 80% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike rates by 25 basis points in July, before holding rates steady for the remainder of the year. [FEDWATCH]


The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.


The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long on U.S. dollars.


The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).


The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):


DATE USD/ USD/ USD USD USD USD/ USD/ USD/P USD/T


CNY KRW /SG /ID /TW INR MYR HP (NYSE:HPQ) HB


D R D


29-Jun 1.74 0.29 0.5 0.3 0.7 -0.1 1.85 0.29 1.03


-23 0 0 2 4


15-Jun 1.59 -0.0 0.1 -0. 0.6 -0.2 1.64 0.74 0.25


-23 3 7 33 8 4


01-Jun 1.88 0.68 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.48 1.77 1.08 0.45


-23 3 3 0


18-May 1.27 0.88 0.1 -0. 1 0.11 1.1 1.12 -0.5


-23 9 27


04-May 0.56 1.01 -0. -1. 0.6 -0.1 0.69 0.86 -0.43


-23 04 05 5 4


20-Apr -0.1 0.36 -0. -0. 0.3 0.30 0.54 0.95 -0.12


-23 4 13 47 0


06-Apr 0.04 0.56 -0. -0. -0. 0.3 0.29 0.08 -0.06


-23 39 26 03


23-Mar 0.17 0.87 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.58 0.74 0.36 0.37


-23 6 4 3


09-Mar 0.68 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.28 0.78 0.42 0.3


-23 5 6 8


23-Feb 0.36 0.77 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.80 0.49 0.33 0.37


-23 1 2 0

2023-06-29 15:26:14
Australia job vacancies fall 2% in May qtr, still historically high

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Job vacancies in Australia fell in the three months to May, the fourth straight quarter of decline, but were still far above pre-pandemic levels as demand for labour remains strong.


Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) out on Thursday showed vacancies in the May quarter fell 2.0%, from the previous quarter, to 431,600.


That was down 10% on a year ago, but 89% higher than in February 2020 before the pandemic struck.


"This May saw businesses continuing to report difficulties in recruiting and retaining staff," said Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics.


The percentage of businesses reporting at least one vacancy increased by one point to 25% in May. "This highlights the impact of a tight labour market on a broad range of businesses," said Jarvis.


The strength of the labour market is one reason the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates 13 times to 4.1%, and might hike again next week.


Thursday's data showed vacancies in the private sector fell 2.3% in the May quarter, while the public sector saw a rise of 0.3%. The number of vacancies was highest in health care, followed by professional services, accommodation and food, and construction.

2023-06-29 13:16:22