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Oil prices dip as US inventories rise, M.East tensions persist

Investing.com-- Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday after industry data signaled an increase in U.S. oil inventories, while focus remained on diplomacy efforts by the U.S. to quell tensions in the Middle East. 


Crude prices gained some ground in the prior session after Israel said it had killed Hashem Safieddine, the heir apparent to the late Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasarallah, who was killed last month by an Israeli strike. 


U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held extended discussions with Israeli leaders this week over a potential de escalation in the conflict, while also pushing for more humanitarian aid in Gaza. 


Focus also remained on more economic cues from top oil importer China, amid persistent concerns over slowing demand in the country. 


Brent oil futures expiring in December fell 0.4% to $75.75 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.4% to $71.45 a barrel by 21:00 ET (01:00 GMT). 


US inventories clock bigger-than-expected build- API 

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. oil inventories grew 1.643 million barrels in the past week, compared to expectations for a build of 0.7 mb. 


The reading usually heralds a similar trend from official inventory data, which is due later on Wednesday, and spurred some concerns that U.S. fuel demand was cooling.


Oil prices were also pressured by recent strength in the dollar, as expectations of smaller interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve boosted the greenback to its strongest levels since early-August. 


Oil to remain around $76/barrel in 2025- Goldman Sachs 
Oil prices are expected to average around $76 a barrel in 2025, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent note, with markets to see a moderate crude surplus and spare capacity in major producers to offset any potential supply disruptions.

The investment bank said the risk premium for crude from tensions in the Middle East was limited, given that Iran-Israel tensions had so far not impacted oil supplies from the region. 

GS analysts also noted that major producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies had sufficient spare capacity. The cartel last week cut its oil demand forecast for 2024 and 2025, and is set to begin increasing production later this year.
2024-10-23 11:11:09
African progress backslides as coups and war persist

By Libby George


LONDON (Reuters) - Nearly half of Africa's citizens live in a country where governance has worsened over the past decade, as deteriorating security erodes progress, according to a new report.


The annual Ibrahim Index of African Governance report found that despite positive progress in 33 countries, overall governance was worse in 2023 in 21 countries, accounting for just under half of Africa's population, compared with 2014.


For several countries, including densely populated Nigeria and Uganda, the deterioration in overall governance had worsened over the second part of the decade, according to the report released by Sudanese-British billionaire businessman Mo Ibrahim's foundation.


"We can see really a huge arc of instability and conflicts and this deterioration, and security and safety of our people, is the biggest driver of deterioration and governance...putting everything down in general," Ibrahim told Reuters in an interview.


Ibrahim pointed to the coups in West Africa and war in Sudan, but said poor governance also fostered violence and instability.


"If there is deterioration on governance, if there is corruption, if there is marginalization...people are going to pick up arms," he said.


The report found that infrastructure - from mobile phone access to energy - and women's equality, were better in 2023 for roughly 95% of Africans.


Health, education and business environment metrics had also improved continent-wide.


But the report found that public perceptions on progress were grim, even when the corresponding governance dimensions showed progress; all public perception indicators, apart from those tracking women's leadership, declined.


The worst drops were in perceptions of economic opportunities and of safety and security.

The foundation said this could be due to higher expectations in countries that were making progress, and also a tendency to focus on what is not working.

But Ibrahim said it was a serious problem.

"If public dissatisfaction is high, that obviously can lead to unrest, it can lead to increased migration, conflicts," he said.
2024-10-23 08:44:10
European stocks mixed; IMF report, quarterly earnings in focus

Investing.com - European stock markets traded in a mixed fashion Tuesday, as investors digested more third-quarter corporate earnings amid uncertainty over global growth and the future path of interest rates. 


At 03:10 ET (07:10 GMT), the DAX index in Germany traded 0.5% higher, while the CAC 40 in France fell 0.1% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. dropped 0.4%.


IMF to update growth forecasts

The European Central Bank cut interest rates last week, the central bank’s first back-to-back rate cut since 2011 amid concerns about economic activity in the region.


The International Monetary Fund will update its global growth forecasts later Tuesday. 


IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva last week flagged a lackluster outlook, saying the global economy was headed for slow medium-term growth, and pointing to a "difficult future", with continued weakness in China and Europe.


 The European Central Bank is likely to cut its key interest rate down to its "natural" level between 2% and 3% but it may need to reduce it even further if a fall in inflation becomes entrenched, ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus said on Monday.


HSBC consolidates into four units

In the corporate sector, HSBC (LON:HSBA) stock fell 0.4% after the banking giant named veteran insider Pam Kaur as its first female finance chief and announced a consolidation of the bank into four business units.


SAP (ETR:SAPG) stock soared over 5% after the German software company raised its full-year targets on strong cloud business in the third quarter, with artificial intelligence a key growth driver.


Mulberry (LON:MUL) rejected a second takeover proposal from the Frasers Group, with the British luxury brand saying the possible offer is "untenable". 


InterContinental Hotels (LON:IHG) stock fell 2% after the group posted third-quarter room revenue growth, but still noted a subdued U.S. market and weakness in China.


Randstad (AS:RAND) sock rose 4% after the world's largest employment agency, reported quarterly profit slightly ahead of expectations as trading conditions stabilized across some of its markets despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.


Saab (ST:SAABb) sock rose almost 3% after the Swedish aerospace and defense company reported a rise in third-quarter operating earnings and affirmed its outlook for surging sales and profits this year.


The earnings deluge on Wall Street continues Tuesday, with results due from the likes of Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN), 3M, General Motors (NYSE:GM), Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ).


Crude slips on demand worries 

Oil prices dipped lower Tuesday as uncertainty over global demand growth, particularly from China, the world's top oil importer, continued to weigh. 


By 03:10 ET, the Brent contract dropped 0.7% to $73.74 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures (WTI) traded 0.7% lower at $69.54 per barrel.


International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol warned on Monday that economic weakness in China will continue to stunt global oil demand in the coming years.


Birol’s comments -- made in an interview with Bloomberg -- came after both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently cut their demand growth forecasts on concerns over China. 


The tensions in the Middle East remain in focus, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken headed to the region seeking to revive talks to end the conflict which has seen traders attach some risk premium to crude prices, on the prospect of supply disruptions in the region.

2024-10-22 16:28:31
Gold prices steady below record highs with US elections in focus

Investing.com-- Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Tuesday, steadying just below recent record highs as traders remained largely biased towards safe havens in anticipation of a tight 2024 presidential election. 


This notion saw gold and other precious metals remain strong even as the dollar firmed amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at a slower pace.


Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,734.38 an ounce, while gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,748.40 an ounce by 00:12 ET (04:12 GMT). Spot prices hit a record high of just over $2,740 an ounce on Monday.


Gold near record highs on election uncertainty 

Recent polls pointed to a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the upcoming presidential election, which is about two weeks away. 


Uncertainty over the outcome, and the sharp contrast between the stances of both candidates saw traders turn largely risk-averse in recent sessions, favoring safe haven plays. This risk aversion is expected to increase as the elections draw closer.


Safe haven demand was also boosted by fears of an escalation in the Middle East conflict, after an attempted drone attack on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel was also seen maintaining its offensive against Hamas and Hezbollah, and is reportedly planning a strike against Iran. 


Safe haven demand helped precious metal prices weather strength in the dollar, which rose to a near three-month high this week. The greenback was buoyed by increased bets on a slower pace of rate cuts by the Fed, which bode poorly for metal markets. 


Other precious metals also rose on Tuesday. Platinum futures rose 0.4% to $1,019.60 an ounce, while silver futures rose 0.7% and remained close to a 12-year high hit on Monday.


Copper recoups some losses, China in focus 

Among industrial metals, copper prices firmed on Tuesday, recouping some recent losses on the prospect of improving demand in top importer China.


Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7% to $9,638.50 a ton, while December copper futures rose 0.8% to $4.3943 a pound.


Copper was nursing steep losses over the past few weeks, as stimulus measures from China largely underwhelmed. The red metal fell on Monday even after the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates slightly more than expected.


But investors are holding out for more details from China on its plans to shore up economic growth with its recently announced stimulus measures. The National People’s Congress is set to meet later in October, and is widely expected to approve more fiscal spending to support growth.

2024-10-22 14:23:20
Oil prices trim Middle East war risk-gains, China demand remains a worry

By Yuka Obayashi


TOKYO (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday, paring the previous day's nearly 2% rise as the top U.S. diplomat renewed efforts to push for a ceasefire in the Middle East, and as slow demand in China, the world's top oil importer, continued to weigh on the market.


Brent crude futures for December delivery were down 26 cents, or 0.3%, at $74.03 a barrel at 0046 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery were 2 cents lower at $70.54 a barrel on the contract's last day as the front month.


The more actively traded WTI futures for December, which will soon become the front month, lost 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.81 per barrel.


Both Brent and WTI settled nearly 2% higher on Monday, recouping some of last week's more than 7% decline, with no letup of fighting in the Middle East and the market still nervous about Israel's expected retaliation against Iran potentially leading to a disruption of oil supply.


"Crude oil prices have been fluctuating in response to mixed news from the Middle East, as the situation alternates between escalation and de-escalation," Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities.


"The market is expected to rise if there are clearer signs of China's economic recovery, bolstered by Beijing's stimulus measures and improvement in U.S. economy following interest rate cuts," he said. But gains are likely to be limited by persistent uncertainty about the overall global economic outlook, he added.


U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken headed to the Middle East on Monday seeking to revive talks to end the Gaza war and defuse the spillover conflict in Lebanon.


Israeli military forces besieged hospitals and shelters for displaced people in the northern Gaza Strip on Monday as they stepped up their operations, preventing critical aid from reaching civilians, residents and medics said.


Meanwhile, China cut benchmark lending rates as anticipated at the monthly fixing on Monday, following reductions to other policy rates last month as part of a package of stimulus measures to revive the economy.


The move comes after data on Friday showed China's economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, fuelling growing concerns about oil demand.


China's oil-demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025 despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing as the world's No. 2 economy electrifies its car fleet and grows at a slower pace, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday.


Still, Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is "fairly bullish" on China's oil demand especially in light of the government's stimulus package which aims to boost growth, the head of the state-owned oil giant said on Monday.

2024-10-22 12:30:45
NVIDIA stock surges 4% Monday, tapping another all-time high

Investing.com -- AI-darling NVIDIA's (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock closed at another new all-time high on Monday as it continued its meteoric rise.  The stock closed up 4.14% to $143.71 and is now up 190.2% year-to-date.


Gains come after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM), which counts NVIDIA as one of its largest customers, said late last week that AI demand is "real" and "sustainable".  TSMC said they now see the revenue contribution from server AI processors to more than triple this year, and account for mid-teens percentage of their total revenue in 2024.


In addition, large client Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is said to have increased its fourth-quarter NVIDIA GB200 orders by 3x from 400 racks to 1,450 racks, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.


"Blackwell chip production ramp-up begins in early 4Q24," Kuo stated. "Considering yield rates and testing efficiency, estimated shipments are about 150,000-200,000 units in 4Q24, with significant growth projected at 200-250% QoQ to 500,000-550,000 units in Q1 2025."


Dell Technologies Inc (NYSE:DELL) is said to be ready to ship Blackwell servers as soon as November.


Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said they believe "overall AI infrastructure market opportunity could grow 10x from today through 2027 as this next generation AI foundation gets built with our estimates a $1 trillion of AI cap-ex spending is on the horizon over the next 3 years."

2024-10-22 10:54:39
Stock market today: S&P 500 slips as Treasury yields jump; tech earnings eyed

Investing.com-- The S&P 500 closed lower Monday pressured by rising Treasury yields as Fed speakers continue to echo the need for a more gradual pace of rate cuts, though a Nvidia-led climb in tech kept losses in check.


At 4:00 p.m.ET (2000 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 344 points, or 0.8%, the S&P 500 index dropped 0.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.3%.


Treasury yields rise as Fed speakers call for modest cuts

The 2-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to Fed policy, jumped 7 basis points to 4.025%, and the 10-year Treasury climbed above 4%, as investors appear more cautious over the rate cut path ahead.


The rise in rates come as Fed speakers caution on a fast pace of rate cuts ahead.


"Right now I see modest cuts over the next quarters," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said.


Nvidia swells to record ahead of tech earnings

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) jumped 4% to close at a fresh record high, taking its market cap above $3.5 trillion for the first time ever, keeping a lid on losses in the broader market as investors looked ahead to the start of big tech earnings.


Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will be the biggest company to report this week, on Wednesday, with the electric vehicle maker’s earnings in close focus after the revealing of its robotaxi earlier this month largely underwhelmed. 


Prints from a string of major chipmaking firms are also due this week, coming after earnings from industry bellwethers ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) and TSMC (NYSE:TSM) provided mixed cues on demand. 


Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN), Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC) and Lam Research Corp (NASDAQ:LRCX) are among the majors chip stocks set to report, while in the broader tech sector, IBM (NYSE:IBM), is also due this week. 


Beyond tech, earnings from major defense firms are also due this week, with Rtx Corp (NYSE:RTX), Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), L3Harris Technologies (NYSE:LHX), General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) set to report in the coming days. 

Telecom majors T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS), Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) and AT&T (NYSE:T) are also due. 

Boeing proposes new contract to end machinists strike; Kenvue in activist crosshairs
Planemaker Boeing (NYSE:BA), which is set to report quarterly results on Wednesday, rose more than 3% after unveiling a new proposal to its machinists' union, with members of the union set to vote on the proposal on Wednesday. 

Kenvue (NYSE:KVUE) stock rose over 5% after it was reported activist investor Starboard Value has taken a stake in the consumer products firm behind brands like Band-Aid and Listerine which was spun off from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) last year.

Spirit Airlines (NYSE:SAVE) stock soared 52% after the carrier reached an agreement with the U.S. Bank National Association to extend a deadline by which it must extend or refinance its 2025 bonds to maintain its credit-card processing agreement with the bank.

Quiet economic data week 
It’s set to be a relatively quiet week on the U.S. economic calendar, but investors will get an update on the health of the housing sector with reports due out on both existing and new home sales. There are also reports on durable goods orders, consumer sentiment and initial jobless claims.

n Wednesday, the Fed will publish its Beige Book, a readout on economic conditions in the central bank’s 12 districts.

Market participants will also get a chance to hear from several regional Fed officials during the week, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin.

(Peter Nurse, Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)
2024-10-22 08:54:42
IMF, World Bank meetings clouded by wars, slow economic growth, US election

By David Lawder


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Global finance chiefs will gather in Washington this week amid intense uncertainty over wars in the Middle East and Europe, a flagging Chinese economy and worries that a coin-toss U.S. presidential election could ignite new trade battles and erode multilateral cooperation.


The International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings are scheduled to draw more than 10,000 people from finance ministries, central banks and civil society groups to discuss efforts to boost patchy global growth, deal with debt distress and finance the green energy transition.


But the elephant in the meeting rooms will be the potential for a Nov. 5 election victory by U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to upend the international economic system with massive new U.S. tariffs and borrowing and a shift away from climate cooperation.


"Arguably the most important issue for the global economy - the outcome of the U.S. election - is not on the official agenda this week, but it's on everyone's mind," said Josh Lipsky, a former IMF official who now heads the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center.


The election "has huge implications on trade policy, on the future of the dollar, on who the next Federal Reserve chair is going to be, and all of those impact every country in the world," he added.


U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, is largely expected to continue the Biden administration's resumption of multilateral cooperation on climate, tax and debt relief issues if she wins next month's vote.


The meetings, which start on Monday and get into full swing later in the week, will likely be the last for U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who spearheaded much of the Biden administration's multilateral economic and climate efforts. Yellen has said she is "probably done" with public service at the end of President Joe Biden's term in office in January.

But growing anti-China trade sentiment and industrial policy plans from wealthy countries, punctuated by the Biden administration's steep tariff increases on Chinese electric vehicles, semiconductors and solar products, is expected to be a key discussion topic at the meetings.

LACKLUSTER GROWTH

The IMF will update its global growth forecasts on Tuesday. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva last week flagged a lackluster outlook, saying the world, saddled by high debts, was headed for slow medium-term growth, and pointing to a "difficult future."

Still, Georgieva said she was "not super-pessimistic" about the outlook, given pockets of resilience, notably in the U.S. and India that are offsetting continued weakness in China and Europe.

While debt defaults among poor countries may have peaked, participants at the annual meetings are expected to discuss the growing problem of scarce liquidity that is forcing some emerging markets saddled with high debt service costs to delay development investments as overseas aid shrinks.

Last year's IMF and World Bank annual meetings got underway in Morocco as the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israel, killing more than 1,200 people and unleashing conflicts with a death toll of more than 40,000 Gazans, according to Palestinian health authorities.

The economic damage has been largely limited to economies in or adjacent to the conflict: Gaza, the West Bank, Israel, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan. 

"If there was to be an escalation that puts at risk oil and gas delivery, that could have much more significant spillover for the world economy," Georgieva told Reuters in an interview.

Support for Ukraine also will be a major topic at the meetings, as the G7 wealthy democracies aim to reach a political agreement by the end of October for a $50 billion loan for the Eastern European country backed by frozen Russian sovereign assets. The loan in part is seen as a financial bulwark against a Trump victory next month, as the former U.S. president has threatened to "get out of Ukraine."

Despite the wall of worry, World Bank and IMF officials intend to spend the week concentrating on the work at hand at the meetings, which coincide with the 80th anniversary of the institutions' founding in 1944 at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.

For World Bank President Ajay Banga, that means finding ways to speed up the preparations of projects to use the bank's expanded lending capacity and refining a new scorecard aimed at improving development outcomes.

"The world is the world right now. And rather than use the meetings to go over what we already seem to know - which is to admire the problem - I'd like to take the annual meetings to doing something about what we can do as institutions," Banga told reporters last week.

2024-10-21 17:02:02
Gold prices hit record high above $2,730 on election jitters, M.east risks

Investing.com-- Gold prices hit a record high in Asian trade on Monday, extending a rally from last week as uncertainty over the U.S. election and anticipation of Israel’s retaliation against Iran fueled safe haven demand. 


Other precious metals also advanced, with silver in particular racing to a 12-year peak, while industrial metal prices, specifically copper, also firmed following an interest rate cut in top importer China. 


Metal prices rose even as the dollar remained close to its highest levels since early-August, as traders penciled in a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 


Spot gold rose 0.4% to a record high of $2,732.86 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in December rose 0.6% to $2,747.70 an ounce. 


Gold, silver prices surge on safe haven demand 

Precious metal prices were buoyed chiefly by increased safe haven demand, especially as reports over the weekend showed Israel was planning a strike against Iran over a missile strike earlier in the month. 


Hostilities between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah also continued, pointing to little deescalation in Middle East tensions.


Traders were also biased towards safe havens before the U.S. presidential elections in early-November, with analysts at ANZ stating that the race was “too close to call.” 


Recent polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris almost neck-and-neck, although prediction markets largely favored a Tump victory. 


The safe haven demand helped precious metals firm past signs of resilience in the U.S. economy, which saw traders positioning for a slower pace of rate cuts by the Fed. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in November.


Silver futures rallied 3.1% to $34.328 an ounce- their highest level since September 2012, while platinum futures 0.6% to $1,031.15 an ounce. 


Copper rallies as China cuts interest rates 

Among industrial metals, copper prices rose following a slightly bigger-than-expected rate cut by top importer China.


Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.2% to $9,746.0 a ton, while December copper futures rose 1.2% to $4.4450 a pound.


The People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark loan prime rate slightly more than expected on Monday, the latest in a flurry of stimulus measures from Beijing. 


But earlier signals on stimulus had somewhat underwhelmed traders, given that Beijing did not provide key details on the timing or scale of its planned measures. 


This saw copper nursing steep losses over the past week. 

2024-10-21 15:20:31
South Korea Oct 1-20 exports fall 2.9% year-on-year

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's exports for the first 20 days of October fell 2.9% from a year earlier, customs agency data showed on Monday.


Exports of semiconductors rose 36.1%, but cars fell 3.3% and petroleum products dropped 40.0%; by destination, shipments to China rose 1.2%, while those to the United States and the European Union fell 2.6% and 8.9%, respectively.


In September, exports rose for the 12th consecutive month, but the pace of growth cooled.


On average per working day, exports were up 1.0%.

2024-10-21 12:14:38