By Vidya Ranganathan

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The Japanese yen hit its weakest levels since April 1990 on Monday, in trading thinned by a holiday in Japan and attempts by traders to test key levels and stop-loss orders in a nervous, illiquid market.

The dollar rose as far as 160.245 yen in a sudden move after the yen traded in a narrow 158.05-158.15 range in early deals.

A portfolio manager said "stops" on the pair at the key 160 level had been "taken out", meaning the yen's descent had forced those with long yen holdings and stop-loss orders around that big level to square positions, exacerbating its slide.

The yen's move barely affected the euro and sterling, both of which stayed near the bottom of the ranges hit during Friday's volatile session.

Markets are on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.

While the yen had its biggest drop in six months on Friday, it also briefly surged to 154.97 to the dollar, triggering speculation that Japanese authorities may have checked currency rates ahead of likely intervention. It was not immediately clear what caused the move.

Japan's yen was at 159.105 by 0200 GMT, down 0.5%. Tokyo markets were closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays.

The yen had moved nearly 3.5 yen between 158.445 and 154.97 on Friday as traders vented their disappointment after the Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged and offered few clues on reducing its Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases - a move that might have put a floor under the yen.

The Federal Reserve's May 1 policy review is the prime focus for markets this week, with investors already anticipating a delay in its rate cuts after a batch of sticky U.S. inflation and as officials including Chair Jerome Powell emphasise even those plans are dependent on data.

Vishnu Varathan, head of Asia economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank in Singapore, expects the dollar-yen pair will see more two-way action until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, unlike in the past few weeks when hawkish Fed expectations had kept the dollar steadily rising against most other currencies.

"The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed.

"So, from a yield-spread perspective between U.S. Treasuries and JGBs, for that to continue to fuel further yen depreciation, the bar is really high because the Fed may not be tilting as hawkish as markets expect either."

"The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish."

The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Investors now see perhaps only a single cut this year, currently anticipated by November, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

Sterling was at $1.2522, up 0.22%, but still some distance from Friday's $1.2541 highs.

Investing.com -- It’s set to be another hectic week in markets with the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting front and center. The U.S. is to release its latest employment report on Friday and the last of the "Magnificent Seven" big tech names are to report earnings. Meanwhile the euro zone and China are to release what will be closely watched economic data. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.

1. Fed decision

Investors will be awaiting indications about whether the Fed still expects to cut interest rates at some stage this year when officials conclude their two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank needs more confidence that inflation is heading towards its 2% goal before cutting rates.

Friday’s inflation data for March, which was broadly in line with consensus, did little to alter market expectations for a first rate cut in September.

Expectations for interest rate cuts have faded as data on the labor market and inflation continued to surprise on the upside. Financial markets initially expected the first rate cut to come in March. That expectation got pushed back to June and then September.

2. Nonfarm payrolls

Friday’s monthly jobs report will give a fresh look at the strength of the U.S. labor market, with economists expecting the economy to have added 243,000 jobs in April, moderating from 303,000 in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.8%.

Ahead of Friday, there will be ADP data on private sector hiring as well as the report on JOLTS job openings and other survey data that will help firm up expectations.

Investors will also be looking to Tuesday’s data on the employment cost index for signs that inflation pressures arising from the labor market continue to cool.

3. Tech earnings

The last of the "Magnificent Seven" megacaps that drove markets higher last year to report are Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), on Tuesday, and Apple, on Thursday.

Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL) have tumbled over 10% so far this year and the iPhone maker is expected to post a decline in first quarter earnings after China smartphone shipments fell 19%.

Amazon's cloud computing business will be in focus while investors will also be watching what the online retailing giant has to say about consumer spending.

Solid reports from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) on Thursday helped the S&P 500 register its biggest weekly gain since November.

But some of their peers such as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Facebook parent Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) have given a mixed performance.

"We cautioned that potential earnings beats might not lead to equity upside during the results season, given the already strong equities run leading up to the earnings season, and stretched positioning...," JPMorgan analysts said in a note. "Indeed, stock price reactions in the US (have) been underwhelming so far."

4. China PMI data

Market watchers will be looking to Chinese manufacturing data for April for signs that a long-awaited recovery in the world's second largest economy is gathering momentum after last months stronger than expected data.

Official figures for China's purchasing managers' index are due on Tuesday, followed shortly afterwards by the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI.

Upbeat data would be a relief to policymakers who have been trying to shore up growth and bolster investor sentiment.

Global investment houses have turned increasingly bullish on Chinese stocks, helping the blue-chip index tack on more than 10% from a February trough. But Beijing has lately found itself in a bind over its currency. The yuan is sliding against a robust dollar but is stronger against its major trading partners - an unwelcome sign for China's export-dependent economy.

5. Eurozone data

The eurozone is to release inflation and economic growth data on Tuesday which will likely strengthen market bets for a June rate cut by the European Central Bank.

Inflation has fallen quickly over the past year and the ECB has indicated it plans to cut rates in June, but the longer-term outlook remains clouded by rising energy costs, stubbornly high services inflation and continued geopolitical tensions that threaten to disrupt trade.

Economists are expecting the bloc’s gross domestic product to have expanded by just 0.2% in the first quarter, on a year-over-year basis.

Progress on inflation is expected to have stalled with consumer prices expected to have risen by 2.4% in April, matching the previous month amid rising energy costs.

(Reuters contributed reporting)

By Iain Withers

LONDON (Reuters) - Real estate deals in Europe fell through in their highest numbers since the global financial crisis in the first quarter of 2024, data firm MSCI Real Assets said on Thursday, as economic uncertainty in the region continues to loom large.

Europe's commercial property sector has been hammered in recent years by a punishing rise in debt costs and tumbling prices, exacerbated by some offices and high streets emptying after the pandemic.

Investors globally are rethinking when they expect central banks to start cutting interest rates, cooling hopes for a rapid rebound in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate.

The MSCI data showed the number of property deals worth more than 5 million euros ($5.4 million) terminated and for-sale properties withdrawn from the market in the quarter spiked to 110, the highest since 2010 when the sector was still gripped by the fallout from the global financial crisis.

The total value of European commercial property sales also slumped by 26% in the first quarter compared to the prior year, to 34.5 billion euros, the lowest since 2011 and the seventh straight quarter of annual declines.

"After a very slow 2023, there were hopes that European property investment would start to pick up...(but) the market remains a difficult place in which to transact," said Tom Leahy, Head of EMEA Real Assets Research at MSCI.

"Buyer and seller price expectations have diverged and until interest rates start to come back down or the growth prospects for European economies improve markedly, the price gap is likely to remain in place."

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth likely slowed to a still-solid pace in the first quarter while inflation accelerated, reinforcing financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would delay cutting interest rates until September.

The Commerce Department's snapshot of first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday is expected to show consumers still doing the heavy lifting for the economy, thanks to a resilient labor market. The economy has defied prophecies of doom since late 2022 following the U.S. central bank's aggressive rate hiking campaign to snuff out inflation.

The United States is outperforming other advanced economies. Consumers locked in lower mortgage rates, while businesses refinanced debt before the tightening cycle began, economists say. Companies are also hoarding workers after experiencing difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, and are enjoying higher profit gains because of strong pricing power.

"They have been relatively insulated from the rate increases," said Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair. "In past economic cycles, at the first whiff of an economic slowdown, companies in the U.S. used to fire workers very quickly and then they knew that they could hire them back very quickly once the cycle turned."

Gross domestic product likely increased at a 2.4% annualized rate last quarter, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Estimates ranged from a 1.0% pace to a 3.1% rate. The economy grew at a 3.4% pace in the fourth quarter.

It is expanding at a pace above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%. The International Monetary Fund last week upgraded its forecast for 2024 U.S. growth to 2.7% from the 2.1% projected in January, citing stronger-than-expected employment and consumer spending.

Job gains in the first quarter averaged 276,000 per month compared to the October-December quarter's average of 212,000.

Labor market resilience is likely to be underscored by the Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report, which is expected to show first-time applications for unemployment benefits climbing 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 in the week ending April 20. Initial claims have bounced around in a 194,000-225,000 range this year.

Low layoffs are keeping wage growth elevated, sustaining consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

Though inflation probably surged, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy forecast increasing at a 3.4% rate after rising at 2.0% pace in the fourth quarter, economists were not worried about a resurgence in price pressures.

RATE CUTS STILL EXPECTED

The so-called core PCE price index is one of the inflation measures tracked by the Fed for its 2% target. The central bank has kept its policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range since July. It has raised the benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points since March of 2022.

James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said persistent inflation would require higher wages, which would give consumers more purchasing power and allow companies to raise prices..."but what we're seeing is labor demand and cost indicators weakening quite considerably."

"There doesn't appear to be a threat of wage growth accelerating and keeping inflation elevated for longer."

Economists believe consumer spending more or less maintained the 3.3% growth pace seen in the fourth quarter, also supported by higher stock market prices.

They, however, worry that lower-income households have depleted their pandemic savings and are largely relying on debt to fund purchases. Recent data and comments from bank executives indicated that lower-income borrowers were increasingly struggling to keep up with their loan payments.

The economy was also likely supported by the housing market, with double-digit growth anticipated in residential investment thanks to a severe shortage of previously owned homes for sale, which is encouraging the construction and sale of new single-family homes. Business spending on intellectual property was probably a boost as companies invest in artificial intelligence.

Though investment in nonresidential structures continued to rise, the pace likely slowed sharply from the past year when companies took advantage of policies by President Joe Biden's administration to bring the production of semiconductor manufacturing back to the United States by building factories.

Trade likely subtracted from GDP growth as some of the increase in consumer spending was satiated by imports.

Business spending on equipment was probably another drag, contracting for the third straight quarter. That together with weakness in sentiment surveys have led some economists to believe the economy is likely not as strong as portrayed by the GDP and labor market data and to expect a slowdown in growth.

Others, however, cautioned against reading too much into the divergence between the so-called hard data and the sentiment surveys, arguing that the pandemic had made it difficult to get a clear signal from the surveys. They also argued that businesses were generally conservative by nature.

"Those (survey) gauges still have not normalized yet, relative to the reality of the economy," said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. "Businesses are seeing things pan out somewhat better than what they expected, which is what matters for them."

Investing.com-- The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at the conclusion of a meeting this week, although an improved outlook for Japanese wages and a sharp decline in the yen may elicit hawkish signals from the central bank.

The BOJ is set to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.1%, after hiking the rate from negative territory in March- its first rate increase since 2007. The BOJ had also largely ended its yield curve control and asset buying measures.

While the move did mark a shift in the BOJ’s policy, the central bank had offered a largely dovish outlook on future rate moves. The bank had signaled it would keep monetary conditions accommodative in the near-term, with the intent to foster economic growth in Japan.

But the factors that had initially driven the BOJ’s March rate hike still remained in play. Chiefly, Japanese wage growth is expected to pick up in the coming months, especially after major labor unions in the country won bumper wage hikes for the year. 

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that higher wages and inflation will eventually draw more rate hikes by the BOJ this year. But he also emphasized on the need for loose policy in the near-term, citing a fragile Japanese economy. 

The case for a hawkish BOJ 

A recent pick-up in Japanese inflation- from two-year lows- could see the BOJ hike its inflation outlook for the year. Such a scenario also appears more likely in the face of stronger wage growth this year. 

Recent purchasing managers index data also showed Japanese business activity remained resilient- a trend that is also expected to continue with strong wage growth.

Signs of resilience in the Japanese economy, coupled with stickier inflation, give the BOJ more impetus and headroom to tighten monetary policy.

Additionally, recent weakness in the yen- where the USDJPY pair hit 34-year highs above 155- could also draw hawkish rhetoric from the BOJ, if only to stem a slide in the currency.

The yen has seen little support despite repeated warnings of currency market intervention by Japanese officials. Such a scenario could pressure Ueda into supporting the yen through hawkish commentary. 

Pressure on Ueda to act could also come from fears of a scenario as that seen in 2022. Ueda’s predecessor, Haruhiko Kuroda, had avoided supporting the yen- a trend that saw the currency slump to 1990 lows, which in turn attracted record levels of intervention by the Japanese government. 

“We expect the BoJ to keep its policy target unchanged, but the market’s focus should be on its quarterly outlook report. Given higher inflation in the first quarter, stronger-than-expected wage growth, and a weaker-than-expected yen, we expect the inflation outlook to be revised up,” analysts at ING wrote in a note. 

“We believe that the BoJ’s rate hike expectations will grow as the year progresses.” 

How will USDJPY react? 

Inaction by the BOJ exposes tBut any hawkish signals from the central bank are likely to spark strong gains in the yen, dragging the USDJPY pair away from 34-year highs. 

Still, any recovery in the yen is expected to be limited, given that the main point of pressure on the currency, which is higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates- has only worsened in recent weeks. 

How will the Nikkei 225 react?

The Nikkei 225 was slapped with a heavy bout of profit-taking in April after a strong performance in the first quarter. Any hawkish rhetoric from the BOJ is likely to worsen the Nikkei’s losses, given that higher Japanese interest rates will mark an end to nearly a decade of easy monetary policy enjoyed by Japanese stocks.

An ultra-dovish BOJ was a key point of support for the Nikkei 225 over the past two years. 

Still, analysts at UBS said that Japanese stocks retained more potential for upside, especially on the back of strong earnings. he yen to even more downside pressure- a trend that, barring any intervention by the Japanese government, could see the USDJPY pair push further beyond 155. 

By Stephen Nellis

SANTA CLARA, California (Reuters) -Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co said on Wednesday that a new chip manufacturing technology called "A16" will enter production in the second half of 2026, setting up a showdown with longtime rival Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) over who can make the world's fastest chips.

TSMC, the world's biggest contract manufacturer of advanced computing chips and a key supplier to Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), announced the news at a conference in Santa Clara, California, where TSMC executives said that makers of AI chips will likely be the first adopters of the technology rather than a smartphone maker.

Analysts told Reuters that the technologies announced on Wednesday could call into question Intel's claims in February that it will overtake TSMC in making the world's fastest computing chips with a new technology Intel calls "14A."

Kevin Zhang, TSMC's senior vice president of business development, told reporters that the company has developed its new A16 chipmaking process faster than expected because of demand from AI chip firms, without naming specific customers.

AI chip firms "really want to optimize their designs to get every ounce of performance we have," Zhang said.

Zhang said that TSMC does not believe it needs to use a ASML (AS:ASML)'s new "High NA EUV" lithography tool machines to build the A16 chips. Intel last week revealed that it plans to be the first to use the machines, which can cost $373 million each, to develop its 14A chip.

TSMC also revealed a new technology for suppling power to computer chips from the backside of the chip, which helps speed up AI chips and will be available in 2026.

Intel has announced a similar technology intended to be one of its primary competitive advantages.

Analysts said the announcements called into question Intel's claims that it will retake the world chipmaking crown.

"It's debatable, but on some metrics, I don't think they're ahead," Dan Hutcheson, vice chair at analyst firm TechInsights, said of Intel.

But Kevin Krewell, a principal at TIRIAS Research, cautioned that both Intel and TSMC's technologies remain years away from delivering the technology and will need to prove that real chips match their keynote presentations.

By Nichola Groom

(Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden's administration unveiled plans on Wednesday to hold up to a dozen auctions of offshore wind development rights through 2028, including four before the end of this year.

The schedule will help companies, states and others plan for projects that require massive amounts of investment and infrastructure, the Interior Department said in a statement.

Interior has held just four offshore wind auctions since Biden took office in 2021. The last one, in the Gulf of Mexico last August, attracted lackluster industry interest.

The agency will regularly update the schedule under new regulations finalized on Wednesday. The rules will streamline certain requirements for offshore wind development and cut industry costs by $1.9 billion over the next two decades, Interior said.

"Our offshore wind leasing schedule will provide predictability to help developers and communities plan ahead and will provide the confidence needed to continue building on the tremendous offshore wind supply chain and manufacturing investments that we've already seen," Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in a statement.

The administration is determined to support the nascent U.S. offshore wind industry at a time when projects have been plagued by rising costs tied to inflation, interest rates and supply chain constraints.

Just this week, New York state stalled three major planned offshore wind farms.

According to Interior's schedule, this year the agency will hold lease sales for areas in the Central Atlantic, Gulf of Maine, Gulf of Mexico and Oregon.

In 2025, it will hold a single sale in the Gulf of Mexico.

In 2026, it will hold an auction in the Central Atlantic. In 2027, two sales are scheduled - the Gulf of Mexico and New York Bight.

In 2028, Interior aims to hold four auctions - in California, an undetermined U.S. territory, the Gulf of Maine and Hawaii.

The timing of the sales is linked to the administration's five-year schedule to offer acreage to oil and gas companies for offshore development. A provision in Biden's landmark climate change law, the Inflation Reduction Act, requires that Interior must offer at least 60 million acres (24.3 million hectares) for oil and gas leasing a year before issuing an offshore wind lease.

The U.S. last held an oil and gas auction in December of last year and will not hold another one until 2025 under a scaled back five-year drilling plan finalized last year.

In addition to establishing a leasing schedule, the offshore wind regulations finalized on Wednesday eliminate requirements for meteorological buoys, defer some survey requirements until a project is approved and allow incremental funding of decommissioning accounts over the life of a facility.

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rebounded in March from February's downwardly revised level, drawing support from a persistent shortage of previously owned houses on the market, but momentum could be curbed by a resurgence in mortgage rates.

The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed the median house price jumped to a seven month-high from February, likely as fewer builders offered price cuts and sales shifted to higher priced homes. Rising prices and mortgage rates could make housing even more unaffordable, especially for first-time buyers.

"New home sales have remained remarkably strong recently," said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "That said, the renewed rise in mortgage rates and dip in mortgage applications over the past couple of months means that new home sales will probably tread water at best in the near-term, while existing home sales will fall."

New home sales jumped 8.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000 units last month, the highest level since September, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. The sales pace for February was revised down to 637,000 units from the previously reported 662,000 units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 14% of U.S. home sales, would advance by a rate of 670,000 units.

New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market. They, however, can be volatile on a month-to-month basis. Sales increased 8.3% on a year-on-year basis in March.

Though the new housing market remains underpinned by the dearth of previously owned homes for sale, rising mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability.

Data last week showed single-family housing starts and building permits declined in March. Sentiment among single-family homebuilders was unchanged in April, with the National Association of Home Builders noting that "buyers are hesitating until they can better gauge where interest rates are headed."

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen back above 7%, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed, as strong reports on the labor market and inflation suggested the Federal Reserve could delay an anticipated interest rate cut this year. A few economists doubt the U.S. central bank will lower borrowing costs in 2024.

BROAD INCREASE

New home sales rose in all four regions last month, with the Northeast posting a 27.8% surge. Sales in the Midwest gained 5.3% and increased 7.7% in the densely populated South. They vaulted 8.6% in the West.

Despite the weakness in permits last month, economists believed residential investment picked up in the first quarter after slowing considerably in the October-December period.

The government is scheduled to publish its snapshot of gross domestic product for the first quarter on Thursday. Growth estimates for the period are as high as a 3.1% annualized rate. The economy grew at a 3.4% pace in the fourth quarter.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

The median new house price increased 6% to $430,700 from February. That was the highest level since last August. Prices, however, slipped 1.9% from a year ago. Most of the new homes sold last month were in the $300,000-$399,999 price range, followed by the $500,000-$749,000 price bracket.

Builders are constructing smaller and cheaper houses, but fewer of them are cutting prices. The NAHB survey last week showed the share of builders cutting prices fell to 22% in April from 24% in March and 36% in December. Fewer builders were also offering incentives to boost sales.

Overall house prices continue to rise because of the supply squeeze in the home resale market. Data from mortgage finance agency Fannie Mae last week showed house prices increased 7.4% on a year-on-year basis in the first quarter compared to a 6.6% rise in the fourth quarter. Fannie Mae upgraded its estimate for home price growth this year to 4.8% from 3.2% previously.

There were 477,000 new homes on the market at the end of March, up from 465,000 units in February. At March's sales pace it would take 8.3 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 8.8 months in February.

Houses under construction accounted for 59.1% of inventory. Homes yet to be built made up 22.2% of supply, while completed houses accounted for 18.7%.

By Milounee Purohit

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The biggest economic challenge for the government after the ongoing election is unemployment, according to economists polled by Reuters who expected the world's most populous country to grow a healthy 6.5% this fiscal year.

Despite growing at the fastest pace among major peers, the economy has failed to generate enough jobs for its large and expanding young population, a key issue among citizens in the midst of electing the next government.

A majority of economists, 15 of 26, in the April 16-23 Reuters poll who answered an additional question said the biggest challenge for the government after the national election would be unemployment.

Eight said rural consumption, two picked inflation and one said poverty.

"Following a decade of near jobless growth, the rising number of discouraged workers had pushed India's LFPR (labour force participation rate) down well below levels exhibited by the four Asian tigers at comparable stages in their demography," said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY).

"Bharatiya Janata Party's focus on existing employment drivers (infrastructure, manufacturing, and government jobs) that have not moved the needle much to date is all the more worrying. Without a more concrete plan, India runs the risk of missing out on potential demographic dividends."

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP, widely expected to return to power for a third straight term, had promised to create more jobs when elected in 2014.

Despite that promise, the unemployment rate over recent years indicates not enough jobs have been added to make a significant difference. Periodic Labour Force Survey data showed the unemployment rate which stood at 3.4% in 2013-14 was only marginally lower at 3.2% in 2022-23.

According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, an economic think tank, the unemployment rate was 7.6% in March.

Although job creation has stayed lacklustre, the government ramping up of capital expenditure helped the economy grow a faster-than-expected 8.4% in the October-December quarter.

The economy likely grew 6.5% last quarter and 7.6% in the previous fiscal year that ended on March 31, the survey showed.

It was forecast to expand 6.5% and 6.7% this fiscal year and next, broadly unchanged from last month.

"Repeating the exceptional strength of 2023 shouldn't be taken for granted. Last year's growth was strongly supported by the government's capex push, but the need for fiscal prudence will limit the boost this year and over the coming years," said Alexandra Hermann at Oxford Economics.

"We currently see risks to the upside with increasing signs the economy's resilience of last year was maintained into the beginning of 2024."

With various institutes like the International Monetary Fund upgrading India's growth forecast the risk to the outlook was to the upside.

A strong majority of economists, 20 of 28, who answered an additional question said economic growth this fiscal year was more likely to be higher than they expected rather than lower.

Consumer price inflation, at 4.85% in March, was forecast to average 4.5% this fiscal year and next. However, a majority of economists, 19 of 28 said it was more likely inflation would be higher than they currently predict.

(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

By Patricia Zengerle and Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -A sweeping foreign aid package easily passed the U.S. Congress late on Tuesday after months of delay, clearing the way for billions of dollars in fresh Ukraine funding amid advances from Russia's invasion force and Kyiv's shortages of military supplies.

The Senate approved by 79 to 18 four bills passed by the House of Representatives on Saturday, after House Republican leaders abruptly switched course last week and allowed a vote on the $95 billion in mostly military aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and U.S. partners in the Indo-Pacific.

The four bills were combined into one package in the Senate, which President Joe Biden said he would sign into law on Wednesday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was grateful to U.S. lawmakers for approving "vital" aid for Ukraine.

"This vote reinforces America's role as a beacon of democracy and leader of the free world," Zelenskiy said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app.

The largest provides $61 billion in critically needed funding for Ukraine; a second provides $26 billion for Israel and humanitarian aid for civilians in conflict zones around the world, and a third mandates $8.12 billion to "counter communist China" in the Indo-Pacific.

A fourth, which the House added to the package last week, includes a potential ban on the Chinese-controlled social media app TikTok, measures for the transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine and new sanctions on Iran.

Biden's administration is already preparing a $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine, the first sourced from the bill, two U.S. officials told Reuters. It includes vehicles, Stinger air defense munitions, additional ammunition for high-mobility artillery rocket systems, 155 millimeter artillery ammunition, TOW and Javelin anti-tank munitions and other weapons that can immediately be put to use on the battlefield.

The Senate's Democratic and Republican leaders predicted that Congress had turned the corner in putting Russian President Vladimir Putin and other foreign adversaries on notice that Washington will continue supporting Ukraine and other foreign partners.

"This national security bill is one of the most important measures Congress has passed in a very long time to protect American security and the security of Western democracy,"

Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told a news conference after the vote.

The aid package could be the last approved for Ukraine until after elections in November when the White House, House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are up for grabs.

Much of the opposition to the security assistance in both the House and Senate has come from Republicans with close ties to former U.S. President Donald Trump, a Ukraine aid skeptic who has stressed "America First" policies as he seeks a second term.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, a strong advocate for assisting Ukraine, expressed regret about the delay, largely due to hardline Republicans' objections to adding more to the $113 billion Washington had authorized for Kyiv since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

"I think we’ve turned the corner on the isolationist movement," McConnell told a news conference.

Some of the Ukraine money - $10 billion in economic support - comes in the form of a loan, which Trump had suggested. But the bill lets the president forgive the loan starting in 2026.

'NOW GO WIN THE FIGHT'

The influx of weapons should improve Kyiv's chances of averting a major breakthrough in the east by Russian invaders, although it would have been more helpful if the aid had come closer to when Biden requested it last year, analysts said.

Schumer said he left a message for Zelenskiy on Tuesday night, telling him, "OK, we got it done. Now go win the fight."

It was not immediately clear how the money for Israel would affect the conflict in Gaza. Israel already receives billions of dollars in annual U.S. security assistance, but it more recently has faced its first direct aerial attack by Iran.

Aid supporters hope the humanitarian assistance will help Palestinians in Gaza, which has been devastated by Israel's campaign against Hamas to retaliate for Oct. 7 attacks that killed 1,200 people.

Gaza health authorities say the campaign has led to the deaths of more than 34,000 civilians in the Palestinian enclave.

It was the second time this year that the Democratic-led Senate passed security aid for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific. The last bill, more than two months ago, garnered 70% support in the 100-member chamber from Republicans and Democrats. But leaders of the Republican-controlled House would not allow a vote on the foreign aid until last week.

The legislation's progress has been closely watched by industry, with U.S. defense firms up for major contracts to supply equipment for Ukraine and other U.S. partners.

Experts expect the supplemental spending to boost the order backlog of RTX Corp along with other major companies that receive government contracts, such as Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC).

The House passed the Ukraine funding by 311-112, with all "no" votes coming from Republicans, many of whom were bitterly opposed to further assistance for Kyiv. Only 101 Republicans voted for it, forcing Speaker Mike Johnson to rely on Democratic support and prompting calls for his ouster as House leader.

However, the House left Washington for a week-long recess, without triggering a vote to remove Johnson.