UBS is maintaining its bullish outlook on gold, forecasting the metal to reach new highs this year as upside risks build, the bank’s strategist Joni Teves said in a Thursday note. 

The bullion has come under pressure in recent weeks as markets focused on the inflationary impact of higher oil prices and the prospect of further rate hikes, with rising U.S. real yields and a stronger dollar weighing on prices.

However, Teves sees the pullbacks as buying opportunities. "The risk that gold extends its bull run for a couple more years is rising. Weaker growth that triggers fiscal and/or monetary stimulus presents upside risks for gold," Teves noted.

"Our gold outlook is unchanged and we maintain our view that gold should see new highs this year. We think any pullbacks present opportunities for investors to build positions," he added.

UBS forecasts gold averaging $5,000 per ounce in 2026, revised down 4% from a prior estimate of $5,200, with the adjustment reflecting mark-to-market changes following gold’s retreat from its all-time high in late January. The bank’s 2027 and 2028 forecasts remain unchanged at $4,800 and $4,250, respectively.

Teves said speculative positioning has been flushed out and ETF outflows have been contained, leaving room for investors to rebuild. Gold ETFs in China have continued to see net inflows and onshore physical demand has remained healthy, which the strategist said could keep imports strong into the second quarter.

UBS views the market as underinvested and said it would view any pullback toward the $4,000 level as an opportunity to build positions. "There has been a structural shift in the gold market, wherein a widening base of private and public sector investors are viewing it as a long-term strategic asset that helps diversify and protect portfolios," the note said.

On silver, UBS trimmed its 2026 forecast to $91.9 per ounce from $105, though it still expects the metal to outperform gold when prices rally. Teves warned that silver’s role as an industrial metal leaves it exposed to any slowdown in global growth, which could drag on demand and dampen investor sentiment.

As a result, he said the gold-to-silver ratio "is likely to struggle to retest the lows earlier this year," with the ratio potentially bottoming only in the 50-60 range rather than revisiting the ~40 level seen earlier this year.

Platinum and palladium face similar headwinds from weaker industrial demand, though both could find support from supply concerns, particularly if Middle East tensions disrupt South African mining operations, the strategist said.