At the COP28 climate event in Dubai, a significant new initiative was launched to combat methane emissions in the oil sector, particularly within developing countries. The Global Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership, backed by the World Bank, has established a $255 million fund aimed at reducing methane leaks, a potent greenhouse gas.

Key industry players including BP (NYSE:BP), Eni, Equinor, Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY)., Shell (LON:SHEL) Plc., and TotalEnergies (EPA:TTEF) SE have each pledged $25 million to the initiative. The United Arab Emirates has made a notable contribution of $100 million to lead the country donations.

While many oil majors are rallying behind this cause, Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) has taken a different approach. The company is directing its efforts towards internal carbon reduction projects and has decided against joining the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter. This charter targets near-zero methane emissions by decade's end. Chevron has also chosen not to contribute financially to the World Bank’s new initiative but is investing $2 billion in its own projects aimed at curbing emissions.

Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM)., on the other hand, while supportive of the goals set forth by the partnership, is in talks to provide technical expertise rather than direct funding. The company is considering offering technical assistance for emission control, specializing in methane detection and abatement training. This support aligns with the eligibility criteria for World Bank funding which requires companies to commit to less than 0.2% methane intensity, eliminate routine flaring by 2030, and maintain transparent emissions reporting.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

(Reuters) - New orders for U.S.-made goods fell more than expected in October, marking the biggest monthly drop in roughly three and a half years, constrained by weakening demand for durable goods and transportation equipment and bolstering the view that high interest rates are beginning to bite into spending.

Factory orders fell 3.6% after a downwardly revised 2.3% in

September, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast orders would decline 2.8%. Orders advanced 0.5% on an annual basis in October.

The manufacturing sector, buoyed by a jump in spending on goods in the third quarter, is increasingly feeling the strain of higher interest rates and adds to signs the economy will more meaningfully slow in the fourth quarter. The sector accounts for 11.1% of the economy.

Orders for durable goods fell 5.4%, with orders for transportation equipment slumping 14.7%. Machinery orders decreased 0.3%. Electrical equipment, appliances and components orders fell 1.1%. Manufacturing non-durables declined 1.9%.

Shipments of manufactured goods fell 1.4%. Manufactured goods inventories edged up 0.1%, while unfilled orders rose 0.3%.

The government also reported that orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, declined 0.3% instead of 0.1% as reported in last month's estimate.

Shipments of these so-called core capital goods were flat from the previous month. Business spending on equipment contracted in the third quarter.

Investing.com-- The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold as expected on Tuesday, citing the need for more macroeconomic data to spur another rate decision, but warned that risks from high inflation still remained in play. 

In its final meeting for 2023, the RBA kept its official cash target rate at 4.35%, as widely expected. The bank had hiked rates by 25 basis points in October, citing a recent uptick in inflation. While price pressures have cooled somewhat since then, consumer price index inflation still remains well above the RBA’s 2%-3% annual target range, and is only expected to fall within the range by mid-to-late 2025.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock said in a note that there were still “significant uncertainties” around the outlook on inflation, particularly that high global services price inflation could spill over into Australia.

She also noted that while the economy had cooled under high interest rates, it still remained largely resilient, which presented more upside risks to inflation. 

Bullock reiterated the RBA’s data-driven approach to future monetary policy decisions. The Australian dollar slid 0.7% after the rate decision, given that the RBA offered no tangible cues on future rate decisions.

“Higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy. The impact of the more recent rate rises, including last month's, will continue to flow through the economy,” Bullock said. 

The RBA governor had repeatedly warned of potential stickiness in inflation, especially due to resilient demand for goods and services. While retail spending also cooled somewhat this year, it remained near record levels in October. 

Analysts at Westpac had forecast that the RBA will keep rates steady in December, and will be better positioned to make a rate decision in its February meeting. 

Third-quarter gross domestic product data is due later in the week, although an unexpected current account deficit and a sharp drop in exports bode poorly for the reading. 

The RBA hiked rates by a cumulative 425 basis points since mid-2022, as it moved to curb a post-COVID spike in inflation. A bulk of these hikes were enacted under then Governor Philip Lowe, whose tenure ended in September 2023. 

His successor, Bullock, will oversee a string of changes for the central bank through 2024, including an overhaul of the bank’s meeting schedules, as well as the implementation of measures giving the bank more autonomy in its operations. 

By Jeff Mason, Patricia Zengerle and Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The United States is running out of time and money to help Ukraine fight its war against Russia, White House officials warned on Monday.

Democratic President Joe Biden's administration in October asked Congress for nearly $106 billion to fund ambitious plans for Ukraine, Israel and U.S. border security but Republicans who control the House with a slim majority rejected the package.

White House budget director Shalanda Young, in a letter to Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, and other congressional leaders, said cutting off funding and a flow of weapons would "kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield" and increase the likelihood of Russian victories.

"I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from U.S. military stocks," Young wrote in the letter released by the White House. "There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money - and nearly out of time."

Congress has approved more than $110 billion for Ukraine since Russia's February 2022 invasion but it has not approved any funds since Republicans took over the House from Democrats in January.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Monday night that Ukraine President Volodomyr Zelenskiy has been invited to address senators via secure video on Tuesday as part of a classified briefing to hear what is at stake.

The closed briefing for senators is scheduled for 3 p.m. EST on Tuesday and will feature U.S. national security officials.

The House and Senate last approved $45 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid for Ukraine as part of a broader annual spending bill passed in December 2022.

Bipartisan talks about U.S. border security funding, which Republicans want to link to Ukraine funding, have sputtered in the Democrat-controlled Senate, several sources said on Monday.

Republicans have proposed significant changes as large numbers of immigrants arrive at the southern border with Mexico that Democrats argue would virtually shut down any asylum possibilities for migrants.

Johnson on social media said that Biden's administration has "failed to substantively address" Republican concerns about Ukraine strategy and said that any national security spending package must address U.S. border policies.

"We believe both issues can be agreed upon if Senate Democrats and the White House will negotiate reasonably," Johnson wrote on X, formerly called Twitter.

The House's failure to consider the White House request has raised concerns that funding for Kyiv might never be approved, especially after it passed a bill in November with funding for Israel but not Ukraine. The Senate's Democratic leaders rejected that bill.

Biden administration officials are expected to hold classified briefings for the House and Senate on Tuesday. The White House letter also went to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries.

'UP TO CONGRESS'

Biden, who is running for re-election in 2024, has rallied NATO allies to back Ukraine and said repeatedly that Russian President Vladimir Putin underestimated the West's resolve in supporting its neighbor against Russian aggression.

"Now it's up to Congress. Congress has to decide whether to continue to support the fight for freedom in Ukraine ... or whether Congress will ignore the lessons we've learned from history and let Putin prevail. It is that simple," Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters.

McConnell rejected the White House's strategy.

"Instead of engaging actively in the border security discussions required to complete a viable national security supplemental, the Biden administration has chosen to lecture - lecture - Congress with a brag reel of its supposed leadership in countering Putin in Europe," he said in remarks on the Senate floor.

Young said U.S. allies had stepped up their support for Ukraine, but that Washington's support could not be replaced.

By mid-November, the U.S. Defense Department had used 97% of $62.3 billion in supplemental funding it had received and the State Department had used all of the $4.7 billion in military assistance fund it had been allocated, she wrote.

Around $27.2 billion in economic aid money had been used up, as had $10 billion in humanitarian assistance.

Young said helping Ukraine "prevents larger conflict in the region that could involve NATO and put U.S. forces in harm's way and deters future aggression, making us all safer."

With a nod to important political swing states and Republican strongholds ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Young noted that funding could be used for contracts with companies in Alabama, Texas, Georgia, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan.

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing remained subdued in November, with factory employment declining further as hiring slowed and layoffs increased, more evidence that the economy was losing momentum after robust growth last quarter.

The survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Friday followed on the heels of data on Thursday showing moderate growth in consumer spending and subsiding inflation in October. Economic activity is cooling as higher interest rates crimp demand. Most economists, however, do not expect a recession next year and believe the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing."

Speaking during an event at Spelman College in Atlanta on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said "we are getting what we wanted to get" out of the economy.

The ISM said that its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 last month. It was the 13th consecutive month that the PMI stayed below 50, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. That is the longest such stretch since the period from August 2000 to January 2002.

Some economists believed that the United Auto Workers strike, which ended in late October, continued to have an impact on the PMI. A rebound anytime soon is unlikely as manufacturers in the ISM survey mostly described inventories as bloated.

"This implies the goods sector overestimated demand and production could slow further in the next few months, though that too could reflect lingering strike effects if auto parts piled up when production was idled," said Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial in New York.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index creeping up to 47.6. According to the ISM, a PMI reading below 48.7 over a period of time generally indicates a contraction of the overall economy. The economy, however, continues to expand, growing at a 5.2% annualized rate in the third quarter.

Three industries - food, beverage and tobacco as well as transportation equipment and nonmetallic mineral products - reported growth last month. The 14 industries reporting contraction included paper products, electrical equipment, appliances and components, computer and electronic products, machinery and miscellaneous manufacturing.

Comments from manufacturers were mostly downbeat and cited the need to reduce inventory levels. Makers of computer and electronic products said the "economy appears to be slowing dramatically." Miscellaneous manufacturing firms said "customer orders have pushed into the first quarter of 2024, resulting in inflated end-of-year inventory."

Producers of food, beverage and tobacco reported that "our executives have requested that we bring down inventory levels considerably, and it has started causing customer shortages." Makers of fabricated metal products said "automotive sales (are) still impacted by (the) UAW strike," adding they were "still waiting for orders to come in."

The persistent decline in the PMI likely overstates the weakness in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.1% of the economy. Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods are up strongly on a year-on-year basis and factory production has held up, excluding the effects of the UAW industrial action.

"We are not inclined to infer much deterioration from the ISM composite unless it clearly drifts outside of this year's range, from a low of 46.3 in March to a short-lived high of 49.0 in September," said Jonathan Millar, a senior economist at Barclays in New York.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

STRONG CONSTRUCTION SPENDING

A separate report from the Commerce Department's Census Bureau showed construction spending rising solidly in October, fueled by single-family homebuilding.

"Despite the emerging signs of a slowdown, investors should know there are opportunities in the markets," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial (NASDAQ:LPLA) in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The current state of the housing market could bode well for homebuilders."

The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index rose to a still-weak 48.3 last month from 45.5 in October. A measure of factory inventories remained depressed last month, but the gauge of stocks at customers increased to what the ISM described as the upper end of "just right."

"Leading indicators in the report, particularly new orders and customer inventory levels, do not point to an upturn in activity in the immediate future," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York. "However, neither does the report point to the pervasive weakness in manufacturing that is typically associated with recession."

Prices for factory inputs were subdued, though they were no longer falling at the pace seen in prior months. The survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers increased to 49.9, the highest reading in seven months, from 45.1 in October.

Nevertheless, price pressures in the economy are subsiding. Annual inflation increased in October at its slowest pace in more than 2-1/2 years, the government reported on Thursday.

Cooling inflation is fanning optimism that the Fed is probably done raising rates this cycle, with financial markets even anticipating a rate cut in mid-2024.

Factory employment declined for a second straight month, with the ISM noting an increase in "attrition, freezes and layoffs to reduce head counts."

The survey's gauge of factory employment dropped to 45.8 last month from 46.8 in October. This measure has not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing payrolls in the government's closely watched employment report.

Manufacturing payrolls are expected to have rebounded in November as about 33,000 striking UAW members returned to work. Factory payrolls dropped by 35,000 jobs in October.

Overall nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 150,000 in October, according to a preliminary Reuters survey of economists.

The government is scheduled to publish November's employment report next Friday.

The World Bank Group has significantly increased its climate change funding commitment, pledging over $40 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1, 2024, through June 30, 2025. This announcement, made during the COP28 climate talks in the United Arab Emirates on Friday, represents a notable rise from past funding goals. The new commitment accounts for nearly half of the institution's annual budget, signaling a robust response to global warming challenges.

In a strategic shift to intensify its fight against climate change, the World Bank Group's latest funding promise exceeds earlier estimates by $9 billion. The decision to allocate 45% of its yearly financing to climate-related projects underscores an urgent prioritization of environmental sustainability and resilience. This move marks a considerable increase compared to the previous target of an average of 35% by 2025 and surpasses the current rate of climate financing, which stands at 36.3%.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

By Wayne Cole

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole

Asian stocks have made a hesitant start to the week, while gold hit a new peak and Treasuries ran into profit-taking on their recent stellar gains. Oil failed to sustain an early rally that followed news of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Three vessels came under attack in international waters on Sunday, while Yemen's Houthi group claimed drone and missile attacks on two Israeli vessels in the area.

The threat to such a major global shipping route could add to inflationary pressure, although the impact seemed limited so far. Notably, oil prices lost early gains and Brent eased around 57 cents to $78.31 a barrel amid doubts that OPEC+ would be able to maintain planned output cuts, particularly by some African countries. [O/R]

At the same time, U.S. oil output is at record levels above 13 million barrels a day and rig counts are still rising. That means the U.S. is producing more oil than Saudi Arabia right now.

A commodity faring better is gold, which surged suddenly this morning to top $2,111 an ounce for the first time before paring the gains to $2,086. [GOL/]

There was no obvious catalyst for the move, leaving dealers suspecting the hidden hand of trend-following CTAs and algo funds following the break of a triple-top around $2,107.

Central banks have also been gold bugs, buying a net 800 metric tons in the year to September in a record for that period. Bulls are now touting chart targets at $2,240 and $2,400.

Market pricing for early and aggressive rate cuts is clearly a positive for non-yielding gold, with Fed fund futures currently implying a 59% chance of a U.S. cut as early as March. A week ago that probability was around 20%.

There are also 125 basis points (bps) of easing implied for all of 2024, up from 80 bps a couple of weeks ago.

In addition, markets are pricing in an 80% chance of the ECB easing in March, although the hawkish head of Bundesbank pushed back against such prospects in an interview over the weekend.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will have her chance to comment in a speech and Q&A later on Monday.

Such extreme pricing leaves the market vulnerable to pullbacks, and both Fed funds and Treasuries ran into selling on Monday. Yields on U.S. two-year notes rose almost 4 bps, but that follows a drop of 40 bps last week.

German two-year bunds also look susceptible to some profit-taking after yields dived 41 bps last week.

Bonds really need U.S. November payrolls on Friday to be solid enough to support the soft-landing scenario, but not so strong as to threaten the chance of easing.

Median forecasts are for payrolls to rise 180,000, keeping unemployment steady at 3.9%.

Many analysts suspect risks are to the upside, with Goldman Sachs tipping 238,000, including a chunk of workers returning from strikes, and a jobless rate of 3.8%.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Speech and Q&A by ECB President Christine Lagarde

- Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna Breman speaks, Riksbank publishes minutes from policy meeting

- German trade data for Oct, Euro Zone sentiment index for Dec. Data on U.S. durable goods and auto sales

(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

Investing.com -- Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for November will be in focus this week as investors try to assess whether the U.S. economy is remaining resilient in the face of higher interest rates. Oil prices look set to remain volatile and central bank meetings in Australia and Canada could underline the view that rates have peaked.

1. Nonfarm payrolls

Markets will be eagerly awaiting Friday’s November jobs report to see whether economic growth is continuing to level off.

Too strong a number would undercut bets that the Fed will begin loosening its restrictive monetary policy earlier than expected, presenting an obstacle to the fourth quarter rally in stocks and bonds.

A weak number, on the other hand, could spark fears that the economy is cooling following 525 basis points of rate increases, potentially dampening risk appetite.

Economists expect the U.S. economy to have added 180,000 jobs in November, after 150,000 jobs were created in October.

Separately, data on Tuesday is expected to show the number of job openings moderating in November while Thursday’s initial jobless claims report will be watched for any signs of an uptick in the number of people out of work.

2. Santa rally?

U.S. stocks rallied and the S&P 500 closed at its highest level of the year on Friday, starting December on an upbeat note as investors grew more confident the Federal Reserve is done with rate hikes following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Powell vowed to move "carefully" on interest rates, describing the risks of going too far with tightening as "more balanced" with risks of not controlling inflation.

Some investors currently see a strong chance of the Fed delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024 but the market has misread the Fed and economic conditions several times in recent years and may be doing so again.

There will be no updates from Fed officials during the week as the central bank enters the traditional blackout period ahead of its Dec 12 - 13 meeting.

3. Oil volatility

Oil prices slumped more than 2% on Friday on investor skepticism about the depth of OPEC+ supply cuts and concern about sluggish global manufacturing activity.

For the week, Brent posted a decline of about 2.1%, while U.S. crude lost more than 1.9%.

OPEC+ producers agreed on Thursday to remove around 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from the global market in the first quarter of next year, with the total including a rollover of Saudi Arabia and Russia's 1.3 million bpd of current voluntary cuts.

OPEC+, which pumps more than 40% of the world's oil, is reducing output after prices fell from about $98 a barrel in late September on concerns about the impact of sluggish economic growth on fuel demand.

The cuts are voluntary, so there was no collective revision of OPEC+ production targets. The voluntary nature of the cuts led to some skepticism about whether producers would fully implement them, and from what basis the cuts would be measured.

4. Central bank decisions

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates on hold at its latest policy meeting on Tuesday following a rate hike last month and after data last week showing that inflation slowed in October.

But investors are wary of a hawkish hold, with prices still elevated and new Governor Michele Bullock increasingly seen as more of a hawk than her predecessor.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged for a third straight meeting when it meets on Wednesday. Recent data has shown that the country’s economy contracted in the third quarter, indicating the central bank’s aggressive rate hikes are working to curb growth.

Investors may also get some fresh insights on when the Bank of Japan might begin its own, much-delayed tightening campaign from Tokyo CPI data on Monday.

Whether business and the economy could even weather a return of higher interest rates will also be clearer from the Tankan corporate sentiment surveys and GDP data on Thursday.

5. Eurozone data

In the Eurozone, a speech by President Christine Lagarde on Monday will be closely watched for any fresh insights on monetary policy ahead of the bank's upcoming meeting on Dec. 14.

The ECB's pre-decision blackout period starts on Thursday.

The bloc is to release October industrial production figures for France and Spain on Tuesday, followed a day later by Germany and Italy.

Meanwhile German factory order data on Wednesday will give an indication of whether the manufacturing sector in the bloc's largest economy is still in a downturn.

--Reuters contributed to this report

LONDON (Reuters) - Festive cheer has come early to world markets (bar those dollar bulls) on growing certainty that central banks will start slashing interest rates next year.

For sure, key U.S. jobs data will test the exuberance, while Australia's central bank could reinforce a view that rates have peaked.

Here's your week ahead in financial markets from Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Naomi Rovnick and Marc Jones in London and Yoruk Bahceli in Amsterdam.

1/ SANTA'S BEEN

Christmas has come early with global stocks posting their best monthly performance in three years in November and global investment-grade bonds returning almost 4% - the best month on record going back to 1997.

Now, the early Santa rally risks running into a central bank Grinch. Markets price rate cuts as early as the first half of 2024. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, wary of market euphoria loosening financial conditions, may start to push back.

Whether equities and bonds can rise in tandem next year also feels doubtful. Stocks price in a benign economic scenario of lower borrowing costs and steady growth. Government bonds, which shine in recessions, have been boosted by signs that the impact of previous rate rises is starting to cause pain.

Both cannot be right.

2/ GOLDILOCKS, WELCOME

Will Goldilocks stick around? That's the question investors are pondering as they await the Dec. 8 U.S. jobs report after a rebound that has taken the S&P 500 within spitting distance of a fresh year high.

The data will have to walk a fine line to satisfy the so-called Goldilocks narrative of cooling inflation and resilient growth that has boosted asset prices.

Too strong a number would undercut bets that the Fed will begin easing monetary policy sooner than expected, presenting an obstacle to the searing fourth quarter rally in stocks and bonds.

A weak number, on the other hand, could spark fears that the economy is beginning to roll over following 525 basis points of rate increases, potentially dulling risk appetite.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. economy to have added 175,000 jobs in November, versus 150,000 in October.

3/ A HAWKISH HOLD?

    Cooler than expected consumer inflation has sounded the death knell for any expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates on Tuesday.

    But investors are wary of a hawkish hold, with prices still elevated and new Governor Michele Bullock increasingly seen as more of a hawk than her predecessor. Traders currently put odds for a hike at the following meeting in February at about 1-in-3.

    Some hint of how soon the Bank of Japan can begin its own, much-delayed tightening campaign may come from the Tokyo CPI data, also on Tuesday.

    Whether business and the economy could even weather a return of higher interest rates will also be clearer from the Tankan corporate sentiment surveys and GDP data on Wednesday and Friday.

4/ TROUBLE AND STRIFE

First political turmoil in Spain and Portugal and now upheaval in Germany and the Netherlands heralds fresh uncertainty ahead of a jam-packed 2024 election year.

After November's constitutional court blow, Germany faces a 17 billion-euro ($18.54 billion) hole in next year's budget. No date has been set for the budget, so news from Berlin remains in focus and a fiscal correction means the economy is at risk of shrinking for a second straight year.

And coalition talks are stumbling in the Netherlands after far-right, anti-EU Geert Wilders's shock election win.

Turmoil in two EU heavyweights is unwelcome just as the bloc seeks more cash from members and finance ministers meet to iron out new fiscal rules on Friday.

Bond vigilantes are watching for a deal giving leeway for public investments while taking debt sustainability seriously.

All this as the first EU-China summit in four years on Dec. 7-8 looms.

5/ RIDING TIGERS

Emerging market investing sometimes gets likened to riding a tiger - a lot of fun while you are on it but the dismount can be deadly.

November has certainly been the enjoyable part. EM stocks are up 7.5% for their best month since January. Bonds in both local currencies and dollars have made 6%, while a 10% rebound by Israel's shekel and 5-6% rises from central European currencies have hoisted MSCI's EM FX index to its highest since April 2022.

Decembers have been generally kind too. That FX index has risen every December since a dip in 2015 and stocks have made decent gains in three out of the last four.

It will depend on where bond yields and risk premia, or 'spreads', go from here of course, but many of the big investment houses are again sounding hopeful.    

($1 = 0.9168 euros)

(Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Vineet Sachdev,Riddhima Talwani and Prinz Magtulis; Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Susan Fenton)

By Devayani Sathyan

BENGALURU (Reuters) -The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday and a rate cut is now not expected to happen until the fourth quarter of next year due to a strong housing market, according to a Reuters poll.

Even with rates at a 12-year high, Australian home prices have recovered all of their 2022 losses since finding a floor in January. They are expected to rise 8% this year and another 5% next year, a separate Reuters poll showed.

"We expect there will be no change from the RBA next week, but we do think they will maintain a hawkish bias. So they're going to talk up the prospect of rate hikes, but ultimately we don't think they're going to deliver," said Ben Picton, senior strategist at Rabobank.

The interest rate poll, conducted Nov. 29-Dec. 1, showed 28 of 30 economists, including those at Australia's big four banks, expect the central bank will keep its official cash rate on hold on Dec. 5.

Although consumer price inflation in October logged a slower annual pace of 4.9% growth compared with 5.6% in September, that was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range.

Two economists, however, predicted a 25 basis point hike.

Looking further ahead, 20 of 29 economists predicted the RBA will hold rates steady until end-March while the rest forecast a quarter percentage point hike by then.

Poll medians showed rates on hold until end-September followed by a 25 basis points cut to 4.10% in the last quarter of 2024, one quarter later than predicted in a November survey and putting the RBA behind many of its peers.

The Australian housing market, already one of the most expensive in the world, is expected to maintain steady growth as increasing demand outstrips supply.

Expectations for average home prices in Australia this year have been revised up consistently - from a 9.1% fall in Reuters' February poll to an 8.0% rise in the December poll, underscoring the market's resilience in spite of higher interest rates.

"Multiple consecutive interest rate rises earlier in the year were expected to considerably impact Australia's current mortgage holders. However, distressed sales were relatively minimised due to increasing cash buyers propping up the residential market and the Australian economy continuing to hold full employment," wrote Michelle Ciesielski at Knight Frank, who took part in the Nov. 16- Dec .1 survey of 11 property analysts.

"Compared to the significantly higher migration, the current limited number of new homes being built or being started by developers points to inevitably higher house prices being achieved in 2024."

The poll, which asked about the outlook for home prices in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, showed expectations ranging between 3.5% and 7.0% growth for both 2024 and 2025.

Asked about how the ratio of home ownership to renters will change over the coming five years, all nine analysts who responded to the question said it would decrease.

"Affordability looks terrible right now because home prices are back to their record highs and interest rates are at their multi-year highs, which means you're kind of getting hit from both sides," said Diana Mousina, deputy chief economist at AMP (OTC:AMLTF).

"Affordability could improve if prices fall a little bit and it will also improve marginally if the RBA cuts interest rates. But it's not going to improve dramatically unless you see a very big fall in prices by 30%, if not more."

(Other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls)