By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asia's stockmarkets rose on Wednesday and the dollar beat a retreat as a dovish shift in tone from Federal Reserve officials had traders paring U.S. interest rate expectations, though with a wary eye on U.S. inflation data due on Thursday.

The S&P 500 gained overnight and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.3% to a two-week high in morning trade. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.5%.

"I actually don't think we need to increase rates anymore," Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told the American Bankers Association, to applause, in Nashville on Tuesday.

The remark follows several Fed officials noting that recent rises in longer-term yields may help do the work of tightening financial conditions and crimping inflation, leaving the central bank with less to do in terms of short-term rate levels.

Wagers on whether the Fed might hike again this year have pulled back a bit this week and Treasury yields have come sharply down from 16-year highs, yanking the dollar with them.

The 10-year yield fell 12.7 basis points on Tuesday and was steady in Asia on Wednesday at 4.64%, after touching 4.884% in the wake of strong U.S. jobs data on Friday.

On Wednesday the Australian and New Zealand dollars hit their highest levels on the dollar since the end of September, while sterling hit a three-week peak. The euro held at $1.0607, near Tuesday's two-week high.

Moves were small, however, while traders waited on the U.S. CPI figures.

"Signs underlying U.S. inflation is moderating could reinforce the more watchful tone from U.S. Fed members about future policy, exerting more pressure on the dollar," said Peter Dragicevich, strategist at cross-border payments firm Corpay.

A Bloomberg News report on China preparing stimulus to help its economy also supported the mood, though nerves remained as giant developer Country Garden warned it wasn't going to be able to meet its offshore payment obligations on time.

PIPE DOWN

In commodity markets oil prices have crept lower since bouncing on Monday on concern that Palestinian militants' surprise attack on Israel could spark a wider conflict.

Brent crude futures steadied at $87.80 a barrel on Wednesday, after hitting $89 on Monday. European gas prices, which had jumped on news of the Middle East violence, surged further on Tuesday on concern a gas pipe in Finland was sabotaged.

The subsea link connecting Finland with Estonia, which may take months to repair, was shut on Sunday and on Tuesday Finland's president said the damage was likely the result of "outside activity". Benchmark Dutch gas touched a seven-month high on Tuesday and settled 14% higher.

"Europe has higher than usual gas stockpiles for this time of year, as well as lower than normal gas demand, but these buffers still leave Europe exposed to a colder than usual winter and LNG imports in coming months," said CBA analyst Vivek Dhar.

Elsewhere the yen has clung to a small bounce made as the Middle East tension has supported safe-haven assets. U.S. stock futures were steady in Asia.

Samsung (KS:005930) shares jumped on a smaller-than-expected dive in third-quarter profit and on hopes the memory chip market is finally turning.

Pepsi began U.S. earnings season overnight with an upbeat report showing only a small 2.5% dip in volume but prices up 11% and the company's chief financial officer saying more rises are coming next year.

"Making more money with slimmer volumes is not a horrible outcome," said Sam Rines, managing director at research firm CORBU in Texas.

"With the angst around the consumer and snacks palatable, it is notable that Pepsi gave 2024 guidance and commentary ahead of schedule. And Pepsi’s management team was rather sanguine on the current state of the consumer."

India's economic growth forecast for 2023 and 2024 has been revised upwards by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from 6.1% to 6.3%, according to the 'World Economic Outlook' report published on Tuesday. This adjustment, which represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points, was attributed to stronger-than-expected consumption between April and June. The IMF's projection suggests that India's performance may surpass that of China, the world's second-largest economy.

In contrast, the IMF downgraded its global growth prediction to three percent. Despite this global outlook, India is being viewed as a global bright spot and a powerhouse of growth and innovation, mainly driven by its skilled citizenry.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) anticipates a 5.4% inflation rate and a GDP growth of 6.5%, aligning with its medium-term inflation target, the IMF report noted. Furthermore, the IMF expects India's current account deficit to remain steady at 1.8% of GDP in FY24 and FY25. The updated forecasts were disseminated via a Syndicated News feed.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

By Joyce Lee and Heekyong Yang

SEOUL (Reuters) -Samsung Electronics Co Ltd reported a likely 78% drop in third-quarter operating profit on Wednesday, as the effects of an ongoing global chip glut drive losses in what is normally the South Korean tech giant's cash cow business.

The world's largest memory chip and smartphone maker estimated its operating profit fell to 2.4 trillion won ($1.79 billion) in July-September, from 10.85 trillion won a year earlier in a short preliminary earnings statement.

The profit beat a 2.1 trillion won LSEG SmartEstimate, which is weighted toward forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate.

The earnings guidance sent shares up 3.3% in early trade, versus a 1.8% rise in the wider market.

Although down sharply from last year, Samsung (KS:005930)'s third quarter profit is higher than the first quarter's 640 billion won and the second quarter's 670 billion won.

Samsung's first quarter profit was the lowest since 2009, according to company data.

The company reported losses of 4.58 trillion won and 4.36 trillion in its chip business in the first and second quarter respectively, as memory chip prices plunged and its inventory values were slashed.

A global economic slowdown and high interest rates have dampened demand for most consumer goods following a pandemic-driven boom, forcing chipmakers to cut production in an attempt to stem falling prices.

But in the third quarter, analysts said losses in Samsung's memory chip business likely shrank to around 3 trillion won as Samsung focused on more profitable, higher-end chips such as DRAM chips used in artificial intelligence, while continuing to cut production of older legacy chips.

Rival Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) also forecast a quarterly loss last month, triggering concerns of a sluggish recovery in the memory chip maker's end markets such as data centres.

But prices of DRAM chips, used in tech devices, began rebounding near the end of last quarter, while prices of NAND Flash chips used in data storage may start recovering as early as the current quarter, winding down the severe industry downturn that began last year, analysts said.

The third quarter is normally strong for Samsung's mobile and display businesses given that is when it launches its flagship smartphones, and demand for display panels from clients like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) rises before the debut of the latest iPhone.

Samsung's revenue likely fell 13% from the same period a year earlier to 67 trillion won, Samsung said in the statement.

The company is due to release detailed earnings on Oct. 31.

($1 = 1,342.1900 won)

By Gloria Dickie

LONDON (Reuters) - Billions of people could struggle to survive in periods of deadly, humid heat within this century as temperatures rise, particularly in some of the world's largest cities, from Delhi to Shanghai, according to research published on Monday.

Towards the higher end of warming scenarios, potentially lethal combinations of heat and humidity could spread further including into areas such as the U.S. Midwest, the authors of the report said.

"It's very disturbing," study co-author Matthew Huber of Purdue University in the U.S. state of Indiana told Reuters. "It's going to send a lot of people to emergency medical care."

The study built on past research by Huber, George Mason University climatologist Daniel Vecellio and other scientists on the point at which heat and humidity combine to push the human body beyond its limits without shade or help from technologies such as air conditioning.

It found that around 750 million people could experience one week per year of potentially deadly humid heat if temperatures rise 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.

At 3C (5.4F) of warming, more than 1.5 billion people would face such a threat, according to the paper published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

The world is on track for 2.8C (5F) of warming by the year 2100 under current policies, according to the 2022 United Nations Emissions Gap report.

While India, Pakistan and the Gulf already have briefly touched dangerous humid heat in recent years, the study found it will afflict major cities from Lagos, Nigeria, to Chicago, Illinois if the world keeps heating up.

"It's coming up in places that we didn't think about before," said Vecellio, highlighting rising risk in South America and Australia.

At 4C of warming, Hodeidah, Yemen, would see around 300 days per year of potentially unsurvivable humid heat.

WET-BULB THRESHOLD

To track such moist heat, scientists use a measurement known as "wet-bulb" temperature. This is taken by covering a thermometer with a water-soaked cloth. The process of water evaporating from the cloth mirrors how the human body cools down with sweat.

In a landmark 2010 study, Huber proposed that a wet-bulb temperature of 35C (95F) persisting for six or more hours could be the conservative limit for the human body.

Beyond this, people were likely to succumb to heat stress if they could not find a way to cool down.

A decade later, a group of American scientists co-led by Vecellio put Huber's theory to the test by placing young, healthy adults in environmental chambers with high wet-bulb temperatures.

They found the limit was lower at between 30C (86F) and 31C (88F).

Huber and Vecellio joined forces for Monday's study to apply this lower limit to the world under various future climate warming scenarios, ranging between 1.5C and 4C (2.7F and 7.2F).

"This will be a critical benchmark for future studies," said atmospheric scientist Jane Baldwin of University of California Irvine who was not involved in the research.

"Unfortunately, it's a somewhat grimmer picture than you would have gotten with the 35C limit," she said.

Monday's research adds to a growing body of concern about dangerous wet-bulb temperatures.

Another study published last month in Sciences Advances used Vecellio's threshold alongside weather station data and climate models to reach a similar conclusion: that the geographic range and frequency of dangerous humid heat will increase rapidly under even moderate global warming.

By Kane Wu

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Tuesday as bond yields eased, boosted by dovish Federal Reserve remarks and a dip in oil prices after Monday's surge, but markets remained cautious amid violence in the Middle East.

Europe and U.S. markets also looked set to open higher, with FTSE futures up 0.78% and E-mini futures for the S&P 500 index up 0.07% at 0504 GMT.

MSCI's gauge of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan narrowed morning gains to rise 0.81%.

Top Fed officials indicated on Monday that rising Treasury yields could steer the central bank from further rate increases, helping to spur a rise in bond prices after those markets had been closed the previous day in the U.S. and Tokyo.

A series of economic and trade data, including U.S. inflation and China credit and trade data, are due to be released in the next week.

Markets are keeping a close watch, however, on military clashes between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, after Hamas' surprise strike on Saturday that killed hundreds of Israelis.

The Israeli military has since said it called up an unprecedented 300,000 reservists and was imposing a total blockade on the Gaza Strip, raising expectations of a possible ground assault.

"It's pretty early days to assess the meaningful impact of what's happening in the Middle East and what it actually means for markets," said Kerry Craig, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

"If it takes a drawn-out time and we get more actors involved in it, obviously there's going to be a bigger market impact from that."

Japan's benchmark Nikkei average jumped 2.5%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed up 0.7%, both led by energy stocks.

China's blue-chip CSI 300 Index dropped 0.58% as investors rushed to sell companies with exposure to the Middle East. The Hang Seng Index, however, rose 1.1%.

China's largest private property developer Country Garden Holdings warned that it might not be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations when due or within the relevant grace periods, weighing on the country's beleaguered property sector.

U.S. stocks ended higher on Monday, with energy shares rising along with oil prices. The S&P 500 energy index ended up 3.5%.

The markets' initial reaction to the developments in the Middle East was a bout of risk aversion, analysts from National Bank of Australia said in a note.

"That said, it is interesting to note that the magnitude of the moves has been relatively contained and, in many instances, not all the moves have been sustained," they said.

Oil prices eased after climbing more than 4% on Monday. Brent crude fell 0.44% to $87.76 a barrel as of 0535 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude eased 0.49% to $85.96 a barrel.

"The unrest and volatility in the near-term suggest that upside risks to oil prices will persist," said OCBC economists in a note.

"Our base case is that the tensions may remain contained to Gaza and Israel, even if the conflict is protracted in duration. This will lead to some volatility in oil prices during intense periods of conflict but should see prices normalize, following the knee-jerk reaction."

Spot gold gave up earlier gains to hover around $1,860.6 per ounce, after scaling a one-week high on Monday as investors sought safe havens.

The dollar softened on Tuesday along with U.S. interest rate expectations. Asian currencies edge lower.

Ten-year Treasury yields, which have been surging, fell 2 basis points to 3.35%.

The French economy has experienced a deceleration in its growth rate, according to Olivier Garnier, Chief Economist at the Bank of France. The nation's output rose by merely 0.1% in Q3, a significant dip compared to the 0.5% growth witnessed in Q2. This information is based on a survey involving approximately 8,500 firms, as reported on Monday.

Despite the slowdown, PMI indicators suggest that France is not on the brink of an imminent recession. Business leaders are optimistic about an upturn in both industrial and service sectors starting this October. Moreover, they expect the construction sector to maintain its stability.

The French economy has demonstrated resilience amid global economic challenges. It has managed to withstand weaker Chinese demand and the energy crisis that occurred last winter. One key factor contributing to this resilience is the stabilization of supply difficulties and a drop in raw material costs.

Interestingly, France's economic performance has outpaced Germany's, one of its leading European counterparts. The nation's ability to adapt to these challenges and maintain steady growth amidst a slowing global economy underscores the robustness of its economic structure and policies.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

By Andrea Shalal and David Lawder

MARRAKECH, Morocco (Reuters) -The World Bank on Monday urged a "rapid de-escalation" of the fighting in Israel and Gaza as the violence cast a pall over the start of the bank's annual meetings with the International Monetary Fund in Morocco.

An internal World Bank memo seen by Reuters cited a "devastating loss of life, destruction and heavy toll on civilians being incurred on both sides," but voiced support for the lender's work in Gaza and the West Bank.

"We hope for a rapid de-escalation of the conflict and end to the violence. The World Bank and our development partners have long worked to support the poorest, most vulnerable people in the West Bank and Gaza, and we remain committed to building the foundations for a more stable and sustainable future."

The Oct. 9-15 annual meetings in Marrakech are expected to focus heavily on increasing resources for the IMF and the World Bank, both potentially contentious moves. But the attention of many government officials and non-profit representatives on the first day turned to the possibility of a wider conflict.

"We're all just very much taken aback by the magnitude of the casualties on both sides," Anna Bjerde, the World Bank's managing director of operations told Reuters in an interview.

The conflict already has spiked oil prices and prompted a rush into safe-haven assets such as gold, which could hurt developing economies.

World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill told Reuters that he worried the violence could overshadow important discussions at the IMF-World Bank meetings about sovereign debt, mediocre growth prospects and the big setback for development caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"It's always the low-income countries that you take attention away from, and there are 750 million people who live there."

ATTENTION SHIFT

Eric LeCompte, director of Jubilee USA Network, a faith-based group campaigning for country debt relief, drew parallels to the attention shift caused when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

"We saw world leaders slow down on making decisions on development, debt and taxes when the war in Ukraine started," LeCompte said. "Now, when we finally have their attention on track again, conflict in Israel and Gaza makes everything more difficult."

Gill said the conflict could add to growing risks to the global economy, including fragmentation of trade, especially if it resurrects supply chain delays that sent prices higher during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"It's in a very trade sensitive part of the world," Gill told Reuters, adding that another risk was the conflict would drive up headline inflation, with potential knock-on effects for monetary policy that could hit developing countries hardest.

"Right now the most pressing thing is inflation, if you start to see fuel prices go up and goods prices go up because of these logistic jams, this will just compound the problems," he said.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva did not mention the conflict in opening remarks at the meetings, focusing instead on her Monday morning visit to a school destroyed by the Sept. 8 earthquake, praising host Morocco for returning children to classrooms within 10 days.

On Sunday night, Georgieva participated in a "friendly" soccer match with World Bank President Ajay Banga and members of Morocco's Atlas (NYSE:ATCO) Lions club attended by children from damaged mountain villages.

She later told civil society groups that it was important for IMF shareholders to push this week to increase IMF quota resources to ensure that the lender had ample resources to respond to any future economic shocks.

By Jorgelina do Rosario

MARRAKECH (Reuters) - The World Bank on Monday said it is looking at ways to expand the guarantees it provides for commercial loans to boost the private financing available to developing countries.

Some emerging economies have been unable to tap international markets as global interest rates soar and with uncertainty about when the U.S. Federal Reserve will reach the end of its current tightening cycle.

A recent selloff in U.S. Treasuries pushed yields on 10-year notes to a 16-year high, in turn lifting borrowing costs for developing economies.

"We are looking very systematically at how we can expand our work with the private sector. And that includes many forms of guarantees," World Bank Senior Managing Director Axel van Trotsenburg told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings in Marrakech.

One of the biggest challenges, Van Trotsenburg said, is how to provide more funding for climate change initiatives.

"The financing falls short and governments do not have the firepower to do that. So we need to complement intelligently with the private sector," he added.

Van Trotsenburg did not provide any figures nor a timeframe. World Bank guarantees have mobilised more than $42 billion in commercial capital and private investment spanning energy projects to sovereign financing in the last two decades, according to its website.

The multilateral lender has already provided partial guarantees for sovereign bonds through its International Development Association (IDA), including for a $1 billion Eurobond issue by Ghana in 2015.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in April said the bank must take steps to allow its private sector and poor country lending arms to lend to sub-sovereign entities such as cities and regional authorities.

The bank is currently pressing for more grants and new capital from member countries, even as it leverages its balance sheet to scale up lending for responses to climate change and other global crises.

By Milounee Purohit

BENGALURU (Reuters) - India will be the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year, supported by government spending ahead of May's general election, according to a Reuters poll of economists who did say the forecast risks were skewed to the downside.

While Narendra Modi's government increased spending in the past few years to build roads, railways, and other infrastructure, helping India defy the global slowdown trend, it has so far failed to create enough jobs.

Asia's third-largest economy will grow 6.2% in the fiscal year ending in March 2024 and 6.3% next, the same as predicted last month, according to the median forecasts in the Sept. 20-26 poll of 65 economists.

Forecasts for this fiscal year ranged widely from 4.6% to 7.1%.

But most economists said expected growth was still well below potential and a drier than normal monsoon season so far could act as a restraint in an economy where agriculture employs about half the workforce in a country of over 1.4 billion people.

After a stellar 7.8% expansion last quarter, economic growth was expected to moderate to 6.4% this quarter and then drop to 6.0% in the October-December period before slowing to 5.5% in early 2024.

"We all know the big picture story is very positive, but I feel like discussions about economic growth often get lost between the cyclical and the structural and at the moment, we're definitely in a cyclical slowdown," said Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"A lot of the drivers that drove the really strong growth from the middle of 2021 to last year have been exhausted. A weak external backdrop is weighing on Indian economic growth as well as sluggish private consumption and sluggish investment."

A majority of economists, 22 of 36, who answered an additional question said the risks to their FY 2023/2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside.

RBI'S NEXT MOVE?

While the poll showed India's retail inflation would average 5.5% this fiscal year and 4.8% next, above the RBI's medium-term target of 4%, over two third of economists, 23 of 34, said the risks were skewed that it would be higher.

Even though inflation was not expected to reach that goal across the forecast horizon, economists expect the next move from the Reserve Bank of India to be a cut.

Nearly 60% of economists, 28 of 48, forecast the RBI to have cut rates by at least 25 basis points before July with the median putting it at 6.25% in the second quarter of next year.

That's around the time when its global peers were expected to cut rates.

All but one of the 71 economists surveyed said the RBI would keep its key repo rate unchanged at 6.50% at the conclusion of the Oct. 4-6 meeting, with one expecting a 25 basis point hike. Median forecasts showed it staying there for the rest of this fiscal year.

"The RBI will likely tolerate supply-driven inflationary pressures as long as core prices continue to ease but will monitor the development of inflation expectations closely," said Alexandra Hermann, lead economist at Oxford Economics.

"We still expect a rate cut early in 2024, although recent inflationary trends are making it increasingly likely that a policy tilt will be pushed back. Government measures should cool food prices in the coming months, but rising oil prices will likely place upward pressure on headline inflation."

(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

By Jose Gonzalez and Laura Gottesdiener

CIUDAD JUAREZ (Reuters) -Trade across the U.S.-Mexican border has been slowed over the past week as U.S. authorities have shut down crossings and imposed extra security checks amid an increase in migration, sparking concern in Mexico.

About 8,000 trailers carrying an estimated $1 billion worth of goods have been stranded on the Mexican side over the past week, said Manuel Sotelo, president of the transport association of Ciudad Juarez, a major manufacturing hub across from El Paso, Texas.

Some companies were sending merchandise through entry points in New Mexico and Arizona to avoid the long wait times at the Texas border, Sotelo told Reuters on Monday.

The delays forced a Canadian snowmobile and off-road vehicle manufacturer to suspend production on Monday and Tuesday at three factories in Ciudad Juarez that employ some 9,000 people.

"Due to the waiting times on the international bridges in Ciudad Juarez, we have had a significant reduction in the volume of units that we can export daily," the Quebec-based company, BRP (NASDAQ:DOOO), said in a statement. 

Jesus Salayandía, a representative of the Mexican industry association Canacintra, said he expected other companies in Ciudad Juarez would announce temporary work stoppages if the long wait times at the border continue.

U.S. border authorities suspended cargo processing at one of El Paso's international bridges last week to shift officers to process more migrant arrivals. 

Some 500 northbound trucks normally cross that bridge each day, though only 40% are carrying cargo into the United States, U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in response to a Reuters request for comment. It added that "suspending services there would have the least total impact on our trade partners."

Texas authorities also began conducting enhanced vehicle inspections of commercial trucks and trailers at the city's other two bridges.

The moves prompted Mexico's foreign ministry to urge U.S. authorities not to take "unilateral measures" complicating trade. Truck drivers in Mexico told Reuters they had to wait hours to clear the bridges.

In addition to the slowdown for trucks and trailers, some 2,400 Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) railroad cars were also stalled after border officials temporarily halted processing at the international railway crossing bridge in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Wednesday.

Union Pacific told Reuters it expected to finish working through the backlog by Tuesday morning. It declined to estimate the financial impact. 

Some cargo train service was also disrupted in Mexico, when Ferromex temporarily suspended the operations of some 60 northbound trains last week after about a half dozen migrants were injured or died.

Previous slowdowns at U.S.-Mexico border crossings have resulted in billions of dollars in total losses, according to analyses by the Texas-based economic research group, The Perryman Group.

It estimated that the last such slowdown, in April 2022, represented a daily loss to GDP of $996.3 million dollars.