(Reuters) - Voters in the United States are heading to the polls on Tuesday to pick their next president in a too-close-to-call election pitching Republican Donald Trump against Democrat Kamala Harris.

Who will be at the helm of the world's biggest economy will have wide-ranging consequences for financial markets, global trade, with China and Europe in focus, and monetary policy, with interest-rate setting meetings at the Fed, as well as in Britain, Australia and Brazil scheduled for the coming week.

Here's all you need to know about the week ahead from Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili and Rodrigo Campos in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore and Amanda Cooper in London.

1/TO THE BALLOT BOXES

The U.S. election cycle that has already rattled asset prices finally comes to a head.

Recent gains in Treasury yields and the dollar are seen by some traders as the market anticipating a win for Trump. But polls suggest a very close race with Harris, meaning that a victory by the Democrat could spark a rash of trading unwinds.

Investors may just be rooting for a clear result, fearing a potentially contested election and lengthy period of uncertainty about the government makeup as a significant risk to markets.

Meanwhile, bitcoin - the ultimate Trump trade - is nearing an all-time high again.

2/THE DAY AFTER

The day after the U.S. election, the Fed kicks off its meeting on interest rates. The elephant in the monetary policy room is how the decisions by the next U.S. president will impact growth and inflation dynamics.

For now, recent data shows a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy has led some investors to question whether the Fed miscalculated when it kicked off the current easing cycle with a jumbo-sized 50-basis point rate cut in September. A more modest 25-basis point reduction is expected on Thursday.

Investors hope the Fed's statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference will show whether policy makers believe economic resilience will continue - and if they might cut rates less than expected as a consequence. Futures linked to the Fed’s policy rate showed investors pricing in about 120 basis points of cuts by year-end.

3/US BULL IN A CHINA SHOP?

China announces October trade figures on Thursday - some fear this might be one of the last times investors can expect upbeat export numbers, depending on who takes the White House.

Trump's threat of 60% tariffs on China has rattled the country's industrial complex, which sells goods worth more than $400 billion annually to the United States.

With export momentum having been the lone bright spot for China's struggling economy, a Trump victory is likely to have huge ramifications.

October inflation data due on Nov. 9 - the first full-month reading since Chinese authorities unveiled the September raft of stimulus measures to pull the economy out of its deflationary funk. That could provide an early read of how domestic consumers have taken to Beijing's urgent push to support growth.

4/ FOLLOW THE LEADER, OR NOT

Where the Fed goes, other central banks often follow. But the outcome of the U.S. election could skew this dynamic.

A Trump victory - and potential tit-for-tat trade war - would weigh on export-reliant economies. The resulting rise in U.S. inflation and a stronger dollar might force the Fed to cut rates more slowly, while other central banks are left to grapple with a hit to growth from those extra duties.

For now, it's business as usual.

The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday. Possible inflationary effects of the Labour government's new budget might mean fewer cuts in 2025, no matter what happens in the U.S.

Down under, sticky inflation means there is virtually no chance of a cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday until next year.

5/ WOBBLY EMERGING GIANTS

Mexico, jointly with China, is a weather vane for U.S.-emerging market relations and has seen the peso touch a two-year low, with concerns over the election amplifying domestic woes.

Emerging market outflows have, by some measures, scaled two-year highs, fuelled by a mix of a strong dollar, high U.S. yields and a general de-risking desire. That will raise pressure on emerging market central banks near and far.

Brazil's central bank, which has been front-running the Fed, has already returned to a hiking cycle. Policy makers are expected to lift interest rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, following a 25 bps increase in September to 10.75%. Economists now see inflation ending the year slightly above the 4.5% upper end of the official target range.

By Brigid Riley

TOKYO (Reuters) -The dollar steadied against major peers on Friday, with currency moves muted as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report to confirm economic resiliency heading into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and a close-call U.S. presidential election next week.

The U.S. dollar started the month not far off a one-week low after coming under pressure against the yen and on Thursday.

But the greenback saw its biggest monthly gains in just over two-years in October, as investors pared back aggressive Fed rate cut bets and weighed the U.S. election outlook.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls data closes out the week, with economists polled by Reuters estimating 113,000 jobs were added in October, although analysts say the number could be impacted by recent hurricanes.

Headline numbers could easily miss estimates as a result, although a sustained market reaction should be limited, said Sean Callow, senior FX analyst at InTouch Capital Markets.

Analysts said the unemployment rate will likely give a better read on the overall health of the labour market. It's expected to come in at 4.1%.

"So long as it remains below 4.3%, pricing for the Fed funds rate shouldn't change much from (a 25 basis point cut) next week and likely another 25bp in Dec," said Callow.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, last rose 0.09% to 103.97.

The yen gave up some of Thursday's gains, sliding 0.31% to 152.49 per dollar as domestic traders grew cautious ahead of a three-day weekend in Japan amid big risk events.

But less dovish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda following the central bank's decision to stand pat on Thursday had the currency well off a three-month low of 152.885 hit earlier this week.

"We think the chances of a Dec. rate hike have somewhat increased after Gov. Ueda's press conference," Morgan Stanley MUFG economists Takeshi Yamaguchi and Masayuki Inui wrote in a report on Thursday.

Their base case remains for the BOJ to raise rates again in January to 0.5%, although they noted factors such as the dollar/yen exchange rate and inflation data leading up to the year-end decision will be important.

The Fed's monetary policy decision next week comes just days after the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday.

Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris remain neck and neck in several polls, but some investors have been putting on trades betting Trump will win, lifting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

Trump's pledges to implement tax cuts, loosen financial regulations and raise tariffs are seen as inflationary and could slow the Fed in its policy easing path.

Elsewhere, China's manufacturing activity swung back to growth in October as an expansion in new orders led to a pickup in production growth, a private sector survey showed on Friday.

Separate data showed prices of new homes in China rose at a faster pace in October.

The offshore yuan traded down about 0.12% at 7.1295 per dollar, while the onshore yuan was 0.06% lower at 7.1219.

The euro stood around a two-week high against the greenback, buoyed this week after data showed euro zone inflation accelerated more than expected in October. It was last down 0.06% at $1.0877.

Sterling was mostly unchanged at $1.2901, after tumbling to its lowest since mid-August at $1.28445 on Thursday.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, last fetched around $69,544.

By Stefanno Sulaiman and Gayatri Suroyo

JAKARTA (Reuters) -Indonesia's headline annual inflation rate cooled in line with expectations, but its core inflation rate accelerated to its highest in over a year, official data showed on Friday.

The October headline inflation rate was 1.71%, easing from 1.84% in September and close to the median forecast of 1.68% by analysts in a Reuters poll. The October headline rate was the lowest since October 2021.

However, the core inflation rate, which strips out government-controlled prices and volatile food prices, rose to 2.21%, the highest since July 2023, from 2.09% in the previous month. Analysts had predicted the core inflation rate would stay steady.

The headline rate was near the lower end of Bank Indonesia's (BI) target range of 1.5% and 3.5%. The central bank does not have a target for core inflation, but its officials often say its interest rate policy is also aimed at managing core inflation, which better reflects demand pressures.

BI cut interest rates in September and its governor has said it might further ease monetary policy given inflation is expected to stay low until 2025, but the timing of the next rate cut may depend on global market conditions.

CBy Jihoon Lee

SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea's export growth slowed to a seven-month low in October, missing market expectations, in a sign of cooling global demand that puts further pressure on a stuttering economic recovery.

Outbound shipments from Asia's fourth-largest economy rose 4.6% from a year earlier to $57.52 billion, compared with gains of 7.5% the month before and slowing for the third month, official data on Friday showed. A Reuters poll of economists had tipped a 6.9% rise.

It was the 13th straight month exports grew in annual terms though they were the smallest increase since March.

On average per working day, exports were down 0.2%, their first fall since September 2023.

The trade data aligns with a survey showing South Korea's factory activity shrank for a second month in October, with output falling by the most in 16 months.

The trade-reliant economy barely grew in the third quarter, despite signs of recovery in consumer spending, as exports weakened, raising the chance for more stimulus to support growth.

Exports of semiconductors were up 40.3% to $12.5 billion in October, which was lower than an all-time high of $13.6 billion in September. Sales of cars rose 5.5%.

By destination, shipments to China rose 10.9% to a 25-month high of $12.2 billion. Those to the United States and European Union were up 3.4% and 5.7%, respectively.

Imports rose 1.7% to $54.35 billion in October, after gaining 2.2% in September, also weaker than a 2.0% rise expected by economists.

The country posted a monthly trade surplus of $3.17 billion, narrower than the previous month's $6.66 billion.

By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) -With inflation now only just above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and wage pressures easing, U.S. central bankers are widely expected to cut short-term borrowing costs next week in an effort to keep the labor market from further cooling.

But an uptick in underlying price pressures evident in data released on Thursday, what's likely to be a confusing monthly read on the labor market on Friday, and uncertainty over the outcome of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election make the road for further interest rate reductions in December and especially next year less clear.

Inflation by the Fed's targeted measure, the year-over-year increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index, dropped to 2.1% in September, from 2.3% in August, a Commerce Department report on Thursday showed. The Fed aims for 2% inflation.

A separate report from the Labor Department showed the broad wage-growth gauge known as the employment cost index rose 0.8% in the third quarter from the previous quarter, the smallest increase since the second quarter of 2021.

A rise in labor costs was among the factors that had alarmed Fed policymakers in late 2021, prompting the central bank's pivot to tighter policy to head off an upward spiral of rising wages and prices.

The fact that wage growth eased last quarter even as the economy expanded solidly may give Fed policymakers added confidence that inflation won't resurge, and a green light for interest rate cuts in their last two meetings of the year.

"We view the data overall as suggesting that upside inflation risks from a strong economy and labor market remain to date muted, and while the Fed and investors will need to keep this under ongoing review given the strength in the data, it is fundamentally constructive for risk and for the 'soft landing,'" Evercore ISI Vice Chairman Krishna Guha wrote in a note.

A soft landing refers to a scenario in which inflation cools but the labor market remains healthy and the economy avoids recession, a historically rare occurrence but one that so far has played out.

Futures contracts settling to the Fed's policy rate ratified that view, putting the chances of a 25-basis-point cut at the central bank's Nov. 6-7 meeting at about 94%, and giving a second 25-basis-point cut in December about a 70% chance.

The Fed last month lowered its policy rate by half of a percentage point to the 4.75%-5.00% range, in large part because policymakers felt that keeping it high even as inflation was falling could harm employment. 

ELECTION IMPACT

The release on Friday of the Labor Department's monthly employment report is likely to show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in October, economists polled by Reuters projected. They forecast that 113,000 jobs were added in October, which would be a sharp slowdown from September.

Fed policymakers, however, are expected to take little signal from that employment data, because recent hurricanes and an ongoing strike at Boeing (NYSE:BA) likely subtracted as much as 100,000 jobs in the month. That impact will be seen as only temporary rather than a sudden deterioration in the labor market.

Other data released on Thursday, however, may mitigate the confidence in a benign inflation trajectory.

Underlying price pressures, as tracked by the core PCE price index that excludes volatile food and energy items, ticked up to 2.7% from a year earlier, higher than the 2.6% economists had expected and matching the prior month's increase. The Fed watches core PCE closely to help forecast where inflation is heading, and further increases could raise doubts about the wisdom of easing monetary policy further.

"We believe the Fed will pause any rate cuts in December amid fears about a reacceleration of inflation," Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, wrote in a note.

And if former U.S. President Donald Trump retakes the White House and voters return full control of Congress to his fellow Republicans on Tuesday, as betting markets project, promised tariff increases, tax cuts and mass deportations of migrants could bolster wage and inflation pressures, analysts say.

Financial markets in recent weeks have been pricing in higher inflation in five years.

"The election poses upside risks to the baseline forecast for medium-term wage growth," Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note.

(Reuters) - Japanese investors sold overseas assets for a third straight week through Oct. 26, cashing in on the yen's sharp decline amid U.S. election uncertainties and reduced expectations of big Federal Reserve rate cuts.

According to the Ministry of Finance data, Japanese investors sold foreign stocks and long-term bonds worth a net 397.6 billion yen and 889.6 billion yen ($5.81 billion), respectively, posting their third straight weekly net sales in both segments. They, however, added a net 116.5 billion yen worth of short-term bills.

While the yen rallied in the September quarter, prompting Japanese investors to acquire foreign assets, it has lost about 6.4% against the dollar this month, creating profit-taking opportunities for Japanese market participants.

The yen reached a three-month low this week after the ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority, and is on track for its seventh sharpest monthly decline ever and the largest since November 2016.

Last quarter, Japanese investors bought approximately 2.02 trillion yen in stocks and 5.11 trillion yen in long-term bonds. However, they have sold around 667 billion yen in equities and 1.19 trillion yen in long-term debt securities so far this month.

In parallel, foreign net purchases of Japanese stocks fell to a five-week low of 8 billion yen last week, as investors exercised caution due to the election in Japan.

Foreigners, meanwhile, snapped up a net 277.9 billion yen worth of long-term Japanese bonds, registering their fourth weekly net purchase in five. They, however, sold 682.6 billion yen worth of short-term instruments.

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. Treasury Department said on Wednesday it does not anticipate increasing auction sizes for notes and bonds for at least the next several quarters, in line with market expectations, as it announced a $125 billion refunding from November 2024 to January 2025.

The department will refund about $116.4 billion of privately held Treasury notes and bonds maturing on Nov. 15 to raise new cash of $8.6 billion from private investors.

The Treasury will sell $58 billion in U.S. three-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds next week. These were the same auction sizes for the same securities announced at the July refunding.

"The refunding was pretty much close to our expectations. There could have been a small tweak to the guidance because 'at least for the next several quarters' is quite open to interpretation," said Angelo Manolatos, a macro strategist at Wells Fargo Securities.

"To us, we think that the Treasury is well-funded to meet its borrowing needs and current auction sizes are sufficient until November 2025, a time when we think the Treasury can increase them."

The U.S. Treasury said on Monday it plans to borrow $546 billion in the fourth quarter, $19 billion less than the July estimate, and another $823 billion in the first quarter of 2025. It assumes an end-December cash balance of $700 billion and an end-March cash balance of $850 billion.

Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Joshua Frost, in a briefing following the refunding statement, said the borrowing plans for the quarter assume that Congress approves a "timely" increase or suspension in the debt ceiling. The current extension, approved in June 2023, expires on Dec. 31.

Members of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC), who met with the U.S. Treasury before the refunding announcement, expressed concern about the borrowings for 2025 and 2026. Minutes of the meeting showed that primary dealer estimates for the next two fiscal years were marginally higher than the previous forecasts.

The Treasury said on Wednesday it believes current auction sizes leave it "well-positioned" to address potential changes to the fiscal outlook and to the pace and duration of future redemptions in the Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA).

The account is managed by the U.S. central bank and contains assets acquired through operations in the open market.

The Treasury said it intends to address potential changes to the fiscal outlook in borrowing needs over the next quarter through changes in regular bill auction sizes and cash management bills.

TIPS AUCTION SIZES TO INCREASE

Auction sizes will moderately increase for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, the Treasury said.

"Given the intermediate- to long-term borrowing outlook and the structural balance of supply and demand for TIPS, Treasury believes it would be prudent to continue with incremental increases to TIPS auction sizes in order to maintain a stable share of TIPS as a percentage of total marketable debt outstanding."

The Treasury plans to maintain the November 10-year TIPS reopening auction size at $17 billion, increase the December five-year TIPS reopening auction size by $1 billion to $22 billion, and raise the January 10-year TIPS new issue auction size by $1 billion to $20 billion.

This was the overwhelming recommendation of primary dealers, the TBAC minutes showed. While demand for TIPS, especially from retail investors, had weakened as inflation has cooled, almost all dealers felt the market could absorb additional supply, the minutes added.

By Hyunjoo Jin and Heekyong Yang

SEOUL (Reuters) -Samsung Electronics said it would focus on producing high-end chips to improve profitability after reporting a 40% quarter-on-quarter plunge in chip profit, in a stark contrast with rivals TSMC and SK Hynix that posted record earnings on the AI boom.

The world's biggest maker of memory chips, smartphones and TVs also warned on Thursday of limited earnings growth in the current quarter due to intensifying competition in the consumer electronics segment during the peak year-end demand season.

"In the fourth quarter, while memory (chip) demand for mobile and PC may encounter softness, growth in AI will keep demand at robust levels," Samsung said in an earnings statement.

"Against this backdrop, the Company will concentrate on driving sales of High Bandwidth (NASDAQ:BAND) Memory (HBM) and high-density products," it said, referring to premium memory chips used to make AI chipsets like those produced by industry leader Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).

Samsung posted an operating profit of 9.2 trillion won ($6.66 billion) in the July to September period, compared with 2.4 trillion won a year earlier and 10.4 trillion won the previous quarter.

The third-quarter result was slightly above Samsung's preliminary estimate of 9.1 trillion won flagged earlier this month, which was below market expectations at the time. Shares fell 0.2% in early trading on Thursday, with the wider South Korean market down 1.3%.

"Samsung Electronics (KS:005930) hasn't commercialised HBM as effectively as its competitors, so its third-quarter performance and fourth-quarter outlook are falling short of market expectations," said Baik Gil-hyun, analyst at Yuanta Securities.

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's manufacturing activity in October expanded for the first time in six months, an official factory survey showed on Thursday, supporting policymakers' optimism that recent fresh stimulus will get the world's No. 2 economy back on track.

The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.1 in October from 49.8 in September, just above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction and beating a median forecast of 49.9 in a Reuters poll.

In a further encouraging sign, the non-manufacturing PMI, which includes construction and services, rose to 50.2 this month, after it dropped to 50.0 in September.

Policymakers are banking that further financial stimulus announced in late September will stabilise China's $19 trillion economy and kick lending and investment back into gear, as a sharp property market downturn and frail consumer confidence continue to deter investors.

The mood in the manufacturing sector has been depressed for months by tumbling producer prices and dwindling orders. Furthermore, China's exports, a lone bright spot, faded last month and the economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter.

Still, officials are publicly optimistic that this latest tranche of policy support will soon start to make itself felt.

China economists have previously pointed to how sentiment-based surveys often present a gloomier picture than hard data indicators. In the poll, one-in-three respondents forecast factory activity broke back into expansion this month.

In a worrying sign, however, industrial profits recorded the steepest monthly decline of the year in September, data showed on Sunday. The National Bureau of Statistics said that was due to factors such as insufficient demand.

Other recent indicators pointed to increased deflationary pressures and subdued loan demand, raising further red flags over the economic recovery and strengthening the case for even more stimulus to galvanise growth.

China is considering approving next week the issuance of over 10 trillion yuan ($1.40 trillion) in extra debt in the next few years, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

($1 = 7.1301 Chinese yuan)

By David Milliken and Sachin Ravikumar

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's new finance minister Rachel Reeves announced the biggest tax increases in three decades in her first budget on Wednesday, accusing the former Conservative government of breaking the country's public services.

Businesses and the wealthy were set to bear the brunt of the tax hikes and Reeves also paved the way for higher borrowing for investment to speed up Britain's economy, which has been slowed by the 2007-09 global financial crisis, Brexit, COVID and soaring energy prices.

The former Bank of England economist - who said she was proud to be the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer - stressed there would be no repeat of how former Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss sent the bond market into a tailspin in 2022 with her unfunded tax cut plans.

Initial reaction to her speech suggested investors were unfazed by the Labour Party's first economic programme.

But government prices fell later as the scale of the planned spending became apparent and investors scaled back their bets on Bank of England interest rate cuts next year.

Reeves said she would raise taxes by 40 billion pounds ($52 billion) a year, blaming the Conservatives for leaving her Labour Party with a budget "black hole".

"Any responsible Chancellor would take action," she said. "That is why today, I am restoring stability to our public finances and rebuilding our public services."

She painted a grim picture of Britain, with record waiting times in the health service, children studying in crumbling schools and dysfunctional transport and justice systems.

But in a setback for the new government, a budget watchdog said the economy was expected to grow by less than previously forecast between 2026 and 2028 after outperforming only slightly in 2024 and 2025.

Showing the scale of the new tax increases on top of those of the previous government, the watchdog also said Reeves' plans would take the government's tax take to a historic high of 38.2% of economic output by the end of the decade. That is still lower than in many other European economies but is up from 36.4% now and more than 5 points higher than before the pandemic.

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank, tax hikes of 40 billion pounds would be equivalent to 1.25% of economic output, surpassed in recent history only in 1993 by a budget plan under the Conservatives.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer had warned "those with the broadest shoulders" would have to pay more to spare "working people."

The yield on 10-year British government bonds - which moves in the opposite direction to prices - was up by around four basis points on the day at 1600 GMT, having fallen sharply during Reeves' speech earlier.

Investors were pricing in fewer interest rate cuts by the BoE given the scale of government spending with four quarter-point reductions expected in 2025 compared with about five earlier in the day.

TAXES UP FOR BUSINESSES AND THE WEALTHY

Reeves announced a string of tax increases, saying "difficult decisions cannot be constantly delayed or deferred" as she sought to uphold her new rule get day-to-day spending back into balance by the end of the decade.

The rate of social security contributions paid by employers will rise by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April, and a threshold at which firms start to pay it will come down, raising an extra 25 billion pounds a year in five years' time.

Company bosses warned that higher taxes, combined with planned new protections for workers and an increased minimum wage, could undermine Labour's growth ambitions.

"This is a tough budget for business," Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI's chief executive, said.

A cap on a tax on business profits was welcome but the overall rise in employer costs would "hit the ability to invest and ultimately make it more expensive to hire people or give pay rises," Newton-Smith said.

Other revenue-raising moves included changes to taxes on capital gains and inheritances and tax paid by private equity executives, non-domiciled residents and users of private jets and private schools.

But Reeves unexpectedly ruled out making more individuals pay basic and higher income tax rates after a freeze on the threshold for payments expires in the 2028/29 tax year.

She also extended a freeze on fuel duty and cut a tax on draught beer in pubs, measures that could help to reverse a fall in support for Starmer's fledgling government in opinion polls.

In another significant move, Reeves said she would change a second fiscal rule to allow for more borrowing, paving the way for 100 billion pounds in investment over the next five years.

Reeves said the government will now target a fall in public sector net financial liabilities as a share of the economy, rather than public sector net debt excluding the BoE.