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Dubai and Abu Dhabi race to lure world's wealth managers

By Nell Mackenzie, Federico Maccioni and Hadeel Al Sayegh


DUBAI (Reuters) - Abu Dhabi is emerging from Dubai's shadow as it attracts its own share of asset managers' and billionaires wealth, helping cement United Arab Emirates' role as an alternative to global financial hubs.


Lacking rich oil reserves, Dubai has built up over the past two decades its position as the region's No. 1 financial centre, with its allure of low taxes, the application of English common law and exposure to the region's brisk economic growth.


Globally, Dubai ranks 16th in the latest tally from the Global Financial Centres Index, while Abu Dhabi is 35th, with both number one and two, respectively, for the Middle East and Africa region.   


But over the past few years Abu Dhabi, which holds 90% of UAE's oil reserves, has accelerated efforts to diversify its economy, leaning on its vast wealth and sovereign funds that together manage almost $2 trillion to boost non-oil growth.


The emergence of companies in a range of new sectors and potential for business created by Abu Dhabi's investments have not gone unnoticed in the international financial community.


"It's completely changed in the past year, there's been an influx of money managers, hedge funds, alternatives etc. coming to conferences to raise funds here," said Ryan Lemand, co-founder and CEO of Abu Dhabi-based fund management and investment advisory firm, Neovision Wealth Management. 


Some have already set up shop in Dubai, or increasingly, Abu Dhabi to gain an edge over those travelling from London, New York, or Hong Kong to drum up new business. 


Lemand was speaking ahead of this week's Alternative Investment Management (AIM) Summit in Dubai that drew hundreds of institutions from across the globe, including names like Brevan Howard and JPMorgan Asset Management. 


While statistics for both centres are not entirely comparable, they show Dubai remains well ahead. The Dubai International Financial Centre currently has so far over 420 wealth and asset management firms operating in the city, its head of wealth and asset management said at the AIM conference. There were no recent figures for Abu Dhabi and data from end of June showed 112 fund firms registered there.


The latter, has clear momentum, though, according to eight attendees of the AIM Summit.


NEW ARRIVALS


They cited rising company registrations, the draw of sovereign wealth funds and the ease of obtaining a license to operate compared with other financial centres and now at par with Dubai's. They spoke on background because the subject matter was sensitive to their business.


Billionaire Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, and other hedge funds including Brevan Howard are among those who now have a presence in Abu Dhabi. Asset managers PGIM, the investment management arm of U.S. insurer Prudential Financial (NYSE:PRU), and Nuveen are also new additions.


General Atlantic, a New York based private equity firm with $83 billion under management, is also set to join after it received preliminary approval. 


A further dozen or so asset managers and hedge funds have been approved in principle, according to data from Abu Dhabi Global Market, the city's financial centre. 


Abu Dhabi is the world's richest city when measured by the assets held by sovereign wealth funds, sitting on $1.7 trillion, with such funds managing around $500 billion in Dubai, according to a Global SWF report released earlier this month.


An employee at one investment firm, who declined to be named, said the bigger presence of sovereign wealth funds served as an incentive to set up in Abu Dhabi.


For both centres the ease and clarity of regulations has been a major draw for financial investors.


"The regulatory environment is extremely favourable," said Brandon Robinson deputy head of private markets at JPMorgan Asset Management.


UAE's ambition to become a global centre for the crypto industry, with the regulator for the emerging sector operating in Dubai since 2022 is also wooing new players.


The United States lacks an overarching national framework, while European Union rules are coming into force this year, placing UAE ahead of global financial hubs.


Brevan Howard does a significant amount of its crypto trading from UAE, Ryan Taylor, group head of compliance at the hedge fund, told the AIM conference. 


Both cities also work hard to boost tourism and property investment and for some Dubai, with a longer record of drawing international finance and vibrant entertainment, was still ahead.


Boasting the world's tallest skyscraper, Dubai had a clear edge in the number of night clubs and high-end restaurants and, as one hedge fund professional described it, the city's financial district was "buzzing." 

2024-10-24 15:04:29
Asia stocks fall as rising yields dent tech, weak data weighs

Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks fell on Thursday as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured technology stocks, while weak economic prints from several regional economies also weighed on sentiment. 


Regional markets took a weak lead-in from Wall Street, as heavyweight technology stocks fell amid pressure from high yields and as increased risk aversion saw investors lock-in recent profits. 


Uncertainty over a tight presidential race and a slower pace of interest rate cuts dented Wall Street in recent sessions.


But U.S. stock index futures rose in Asian trade, buoyed by positive earnings from Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). 


Asia tech tracks US losses 

Tech-heavy bourses were the worst performers in Asian trade, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street. 


South Korea’s KOSPI lost 0.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.7%. 


Tech stocks were pressured chiefly by rising U.S. Treasury yields, as markets positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 


The KOSPI was also dented by softer-than-expected gross domestic product data from South Korea, which showed the economy barely grew in the third quarter. 


Still, there were some bright spots among Asian tech. South Korean memory chip giant SK Hynix Inc (KS:000660) rose 1% after posting record third quarter earnings on strong demand from artificial intelligence. 


In Hong Kong, Horizon Robotics surged 28% in their first trading day after a $696 million IPO- the biggest Hong Kong IPO in 2024. 


Chinese electric vehicle stocks lagged even as rival Tesla rallied sharply in aftermarket trade.


Japanese shares muted after soft PMIs 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose slightly, while the TOPIX shed 0.2% after purchasing managers index data showed an unexpected contraction in business activity in October. Both manufacturing and services PMIs contracted in the month. 


The weak reading was largely attributed to soft economic conditions in the country, while private spending also appeared to be cooling after an initial bump earlier this year. 


Sentiment towards Japanese stocks was on edge before a general election this Sunday, where the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could be pushed into seeking a coalition to retain power. 


The Bank of Japan is also set to meet next week.


Broader Asian markets moved in a flat-to-low range. China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes fell 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, losing steam after four straight days of gains on optimism over more stimulus measures. 


Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.3% even as PMI data showed a sustained contraction in manufacturing activity. But services activity grew at a slightly faster pace in October. 


Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index pointed to a mildly positive open after three days of losses. 


A string of key Indian earnings are due later in the day, with a highlight being consumer goods giants ITC Ltd (NS:ITC) and Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (NS:GOCP). Indian PMI data is also on tap.  

2024-10-24 13:03:59
US stock futures rise after upbeat Tesla earnings

Investing.com-- S&P and Nasdaq futures rose in evening deals on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected earnings from Tesla helped improve sentiment, although Wall Street was still nursing steep losses from the session. 


Futures advanced after Wall Street indexes fell sharply during the session, weighed by steep losses in heavyweight technology stocks. Anxiety over smaller interest rate cuts and the upcoming presidential election sparked profit-taking, especially after Wall Street hit record highs last week. 


S&P 500 Futures rose 0.1% to 5,843.0 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.4% to 20,290.50 points by 19:53 ET (23:53 GMT). Dow Jones Futures lagged, falling nearly 0.2% to 42,666.0 points.


Tesla rallies 12% on stronger-than-expected Q3

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) rose more than 12% in aftermarket trade after clocking stronger-than-expected earnings in the third quarter, even as its vehicle deliveries for the quarter disappointed. 


The earnings beat was fueled chiefly by improved margins, with the electric vehicle also forecasting a mild growth in deliveries for the year. 


The improved outlook for deliveries follows nearly a year of waning growth amid increased competition in major market China and saturating EV markets in the West. The company’s attempts to diversify beyond its core automobile business, with forays into robotaxis and artificial intelligence, had also largely underwhelmed earlier in October. 


The stock is the first of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” to report this earnings season, with its positive reading drumming up hopes of a similar trend from Tesla’s peers, which are due to report in the coming weeks. 


Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) are set to report earnings next week. 


Wall Street sinks amid election jitters, rising yields

Wall Street indexes fell on Wednesday as anticipation of a tight presidential election and relatively higher U.S. interest rates dented risk appetite. Treasury yields rose, pressuring technology stocks the most. 


The S&P 500 fell 0.9% to 5,797.42 points, while the NASDAQ Composite slid 1.6% to 18,277.41 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 1% to 42,514.95 points. 


Focus this week is on more upcoming earnings prints, as well as key purchasing managers index data, which is set to provide more cues on the U.S. economy. 

2024-10-24 10:33:31
US existing home sales slide to 14-year low; prices stay elevated

By Lucia Mutikani


WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. existing home sales dropped to a 14-year low in September, weighed down by higher mortgage rates and house prices.


The second straight monthly decline in home resales reinforced economists' views that the slump in residential investment, which includes homebuilding, deepened in the third quarter. The housing market has struggled to rebound after being knocked down by a resurgence in mortgage rates in the spring.


Though supply has improved, entry-level homes remain scarce in most regions of the country, keeping home prices at levels that are unaffordable for most first-time buyers.


"It will take more rate cuts and more options to bring buyers back," said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.


Home sales fell 1.0% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million units, the lowest level since October 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would be unchanged at a rate of 3.86 million units.


Sales likely reflected contracts signed a month or two ago, when mortgage rates were quite high. Mortgage rates initially dropped after the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates last month, but they have risen over the past three weeks as solid economic data, including retail sales and annual revisions to national accounts, forced traders to abandon expectations for another 50-basis-point rate cut next month.


The rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.44% last week compared to 6.08% at the end of September, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.


"We expect housing market activity to remain subdued well into 2025," said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.


Tombs noted that the average interest rate on existing mortgages was about 4% compared to the current 6.5% rate for new mortgages.


"As a result, interest payments for most existing homeowners will jump if they move home, creating a huge incentive to stay put," he said. "Only large Fed policy easing will meaningfully change this calculus."


Home resales, which account for a large portion of U.S. housing sales, decreased 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in September. Sales fell 1.7% in the South, with some of the decline attributed to weakness in Florida following the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene.


Sales in the state could remain depressed after it was slammed by Hurricane Milton weeks later.


The Northeast and Midwest also experienced a decrease in sales, but activity increased in the West.


The Fed's "Beige Book" report on Wednesday described housing market activity as generally holding up in early October. It also added that "uncertainty about the path of mortgage rates kept some buyers on the sidelines, and the lack of affordable housing remained a persistent problem in many communities."


Signs of potential homebuyers hugging the sidelines in anticipation of even lower borrowing costs were evident in government data last week showing a marginal increase in single-family building permits in September.


Stocks on Wall Street traded lower. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note hitting a three-month high.


SUPPLY IMPROVES FURTHER


The NAR speculated that the upcoming Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election could be making prospective homeowners hesitant to commit themselves. There is, however, no hard evidence that the election is influencing buying decisions.


Residential investment subtracted from gross domestic product in the second quarter. Growth estimates for the third quarter are as high as a 3.4% rate. The economy grew at a 3.0% pace in the April-June quarter.


Housing inventory increased 1.5% to 1.39 million units last month, the highest since October 2020. Supply surged 23.0% from one year ago. Nonetheless, supply is below the 1.8 million units seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.


Despite the improving inventory, the median existing home price increased 3.0% from a year earlier to $404,500 in September, the highest for any September.


Home prices rose in all four regions. About 20% of the homes were sold above their listing price.


Most of the homes sold last month were in the $250,000-$500,000 price range. At September's sales pace, it would take 4.3 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, the highest since May 2020 and up from 3.4 months a year ago.


A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.


Properties typically stayed on the market for 28 days in September compared to 21 days a year ago. First-time buyers accounted for 26% of sales versus 27% a year ago.


That share remains below the 40% that economists and realtors say is needed for a robust housing market.


All-cash sales made up 30% of transactions, up from 29% a year ago. Distressed sales, including foreclosures, represented only 2% of transactions, virtually unchanged from last year.


"Increases in inventory will temper future gains in home prices," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "However, any downside to prices will be offset by increases in demand fueled by lower interest rates."

2024-10-24 08:52:25
Tesla to report, TI's income, Starbucks suspends guidance - what's moving markets

Investing.com -- US stock futures were broadly muted on Wednesday ahead of a raft of fresh quarterly earnings reports, including numbers from electric carmaker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) reports stronger-than-anticipated third-quarter profit, sending shares in the chipmaker higher in extended hours trading. Meanwhile, Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX)' stock price drops after-hours after the coffee chain suspends its annual financial forecast.


1. Futures muted


US stock futures wavered around the flatline on Wednesday as investors digested the first busy day of the third-quarter earnings season and looked ahead to more corporate results this week.


By 03:31 ET (07:31 GMT), the Dow futures contract had shed 115 points or 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were mostly unchanged.


The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite eked out a gain of 0.2% on Tuesday, fueled by an ongoing recovery in Big Tech stocks following a period of market volatility over the summer. Shares in these companies have been buoyed by the Federal Reserve's decision to slash interest rates by an outsized 50 basis points in September.


However, Wall Street's two other major indices ended the day in the red, as investors eyed a jump in the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield to its highest mark since July 26. In the wake of strong recent economic data and deficit fears, some traders are now attempting to gauge if the Fed will still be inclined to cut rates again this year.


The pressure from higher bond yields weighed on the benchmark S&P 500. which dropped marginally by 3 points or 0.1%. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average also inched down by 7 points or 0.02%.


"While market psychology has turned a bit gloomy in the last 48 hours, this is just a function of the pullback in equities as opposed to a dramatic shift in fundamentals," analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.


2. Tesla earnings ahead


Quarterly results from Tesla following the closing bell on Wednesday are due to highlight the latest batch of earnings.


Shares in the Elon Musk-led electric carmaking giant have taken a hit this month, following the unveiling of its long-awaited robotaxi, which some investors viewed as lacking in concrete details. Year-to-date, Tesla shares have underperformed the S&P 500, losing around 12% compared to the broader index's 23.4% gain.


Though investors are more upbeat about the US economy after a robust jobs report and last month’s half-point rate cut from the Fed, a soft report from Tesla could revive worries about tech stock valuations.


Stretched valuations, along with high expectations for corporate results and possible volatility around the upcoming US presidential election, could leave stocks vulnerable to a pullback.


3. Texas Instruments profit tops estimates


Shares in Texas Instruments rose in extended hours trading after the chipmaker reported third-quarter income that topped analysts' expectations.


Earnings per share came in at $1.47 on revenue of $4.15 billion in the three months ended on Sept. 30, the manufacturer of semiconductors that help power electronic devices said. Analysts polled by Investing.com had anticipated per-share profit of $1.38 on sales of $4.12 billion.


In a post-earnings call, Chief Executive Haviv Ilan said the company is benefiting from "momentum" for electric vehicles in China, adding "our content is growing there" and "really drove the growth in the third quarter."


Sales of Texas Instruments' automotive-focused products expanded in the upper-single-digits sequentially, Ilan noted.


The figures come as markets are closely eyeing results from global semiconductor firms in an attempt to gauge the outlook for chip demand.


4. Starbucks suspends guidance


Shares in Starbucks slumped in after-hours dealmaking after the coffee chain suspended its outlook through the upcoming fiscal year.


In a preliminary filing, the company also flagged that same-store sales, net revenue and income all declined in the fourth quarter ended on Sept. 29 due to tepid demand for its pricier items in the US.


The announcement underscores the challenge facing new Chief Executive Brian Niccol's push to turn around Starbucks' fortunes. Niccol, who assumed the helm of the business in a surprise decision in early August, said that a "fundamental change" to the firm's strategy is needed "so we can get back to growth."


In particular, Niccol argued that Starbucks' menu of drinks and food has become "overly complex."


However, Starbucks lifted its quarterly dividend to $0.61 from $0.57, a move aimed at bolstering investor confidence around the overhaul plans, CFO Rachel Ruggeri said.


5. Crude slips


Oil prices slipped following the release of industry data pointing to a rise in US crude inventories, but continued Middle East tensions have capped any losses.


By 03:31 ET, the Brent contract dropped 0.6% to $75.62 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures (WTI) traded 0.6% lower at $71.29 a barrel.


Data from the American Petroleum Institute, released Tuesday, showed that U.S. oil inventories grew 1.643 million barrels in the past week, spurring concerns that US fuel demand was cooling. Official US government oil inventory data, from the Energy Information Administration, are due later on Wednesday.


Crude prices gained some ground in the prior session after Israel said it had killed Hashem Safieddine, the heir apparent to the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasarallah, who was killed last month by an Israeli strike. Worries about a possible escalation of the conflict between Israel and both Hamas and Hezbollah has seen traders attach a risk premium to crude prices, given the potential of supply disruptions in this oil-rich region.


(Reuters contributed reporting.)

2024-10-23 17:28:14
Saudi Arabian economic growth to accelerate in 2025 as oil taps open

By Anant Chandak


BENGALURU (Reuters) - Economic growth in Saudi Arabia will accelerate next year thanks to higher oil output after two years of modest performance, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who also forecast robust growth for other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, has been curbing oil output since late 2022 but is expected to increase production in December, likely boosting revenues for the six GCC countries.


Crude oil prices are expected to remain broadly weak and average $76.75 per barrel next year, up from around $74.8 currently, according to a separate Reuters poll. [O/POLL]


Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of crude oil, is reportedly preparing to abandon its unofficial target of reaching $100 per barrel. This will allow the kingdom to reverse past production cuts and increase market share, which along with non-oil revenue growth, will help drive faster economic growth.


The Oct. 9-22 Reuters poll of 21 economists forecast the Saudi economy would expand 4.4% in 2025, the fastest in three years, and up from an expected 1.3% this year.


The GCC economies were forecast to expand an average 4.1% next year, up from the 3.7% expected in a July poll and faster than the 1.8% growth projected for 2024.


"We expect the effects of lower oil prices and higher production volumes (to) largely (offset) each other. Since growth is focusing on produced volumes, real GDP growth will still benefit and accelerate in 2025 relative to 2024," said Ralf Wiegert, head of MENA economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence.


Prominent economies in the region, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, have been exploring ways to diversify from relying on oil as their main revenue source, with many economists predicting the growth rate in non-oil GDP will be largely in line with oil GDP next year.


"However, oil revenues will play a critical role for all of the three economies. Even in the long-term outlook, non-oil revenues will be unable to replace oil revenues," Wiegert said. 


The UAE economy is expected to be the fastest growing in the region at 4.9% next year, up from 3.7% in 2024. Qatar economic growth is projected to accelerate to 2.7% in 2025, up from 2.1%.


"The UAE's economy will be the star performer in terms of economic growth in 2025. If OPEC+ is set to open the taps up, the UAE will stand to gain more as it has had its base oil output quota raised twice without being able to take advantage of that," said James Swanston, economist at Capital Economics.


"Qatar and the UAE are further along in their diversification efforts and are better placed in a world approaching peak oil demand. In particular, UAE has a much larger non-oil economy and, exemplified by Dubai, is able to sustain tourism, financial services, and not rely as much on oil."


In the rest of the GCC, growth expectations for Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman for next year are projected at 2.8%, 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively, versus 2.8%, -1.3% and 1.6% in 2024.
 

Inflation, which has remained stable in the region, is poised to stay subdued with median forecasts ranging from 0.8% to 3.0% for this year and next.


(Other stories from the October Reuters global economic poll) 


2024-10-23 14:31:46
China's exporters run for cover as US election nears

By David Kirton, Casey Hall and Ellen Zhang


GUANGZHOU, China (Reuters) - If Donald Trump wins next month's U.S. presidential election, Mike Sagan's toy-making company will halve its China supply chain within a year.


KidKraft, which also makes outdoor play equipment, had already shifted 20% of its production out of China to Vietnam, India and elsewhere after Trump introduced 7.5%-25% tariffs in July 2018, midway through his first term.


Now Trump threatens blanket 60% tariffs on China, which Sagan sees as a game-changing "blunt" tool.


He expects Kamala Harris to be less aggressive, but still likely to keep confronting China on trade.


"The writing is on the wall that it's going to be difficult," said Sagan, vice-president for supply chains and operations at KidKraft. The firm has reduced its Chinese suppliers to 41 from 53 at the start of this year.


"Question is: is it going to be extremely difficult or just difficult?"


The tariff threat alone is rattling China's industrial complex, which sells goods worth more than $400 billion annually to the U.S. and hundreds of billions more in components for products Americans buy from elsewhere.


Of the 27 Chinese exporters with at least 15% of sales to the U.S. Reuters spoke with, 12 were planning to accelerate relocation if Trump returned to the White House. Four others, still fully in China, said they would open factories overseas if Trump raised tariffs. The other 11 had no specific plans around the election result, but most expressed concern they might lose U.S. market access.


The producers expected higher tariffs on the world's largest exporter to disrupt supply chains and further shrink Chinese profits, hurting jobs, investment and already sagging growth. A trade war would raise production costs and U.S. consumer prices even if factories relocated, they said.

China's ministry of commerce did not respond to Reuters' questions on the impact of the U.S. election outcome on its economy, trade and diplomatic relations with Washington.

Matt Cole, who co-founded m.a.d Furniture Design in 2010, is among those who haven't moved production yet.

His due diligence in Southeast Asia in 2018 showed he would still need to import 60% of furniture components from China. The costs of logistics and other inefficiencies were roughly the same as those added by a 25% tariff.

Though he saw little value in moving six years ago, he now feels exposed.

If Trump wins, he would move as much product to the U.S. as possible ahead of the tariffs, buying himself time to explore other bases.

"Some people made a good decision going into third countries. I'm pretty sure they are not as worried about the U.S. election as I am," said Cole. "I might be on a flight to Malaysia or Vietnam very, very soon."

KidKraft's Sagan says his production costs outside China are about 10% higher and likely to rise. But lower standards are the bigger worry.

If Harris wins, the relocation would proceed at a more considerate pace to reduce that risk.

Quality is "one of the biggest trade-offs that you make in the very beginning because it takes time to secure the sub-supply chain" and "find the right people," he said.

"You really risk your integrity."

SURVIVAL THREAT

The 2018 tariffs benefited Southeast Asia, which emerged as the preferred assembly point for U.S.-bound products that rely on Chinese supply chains.

But they did little damage to Chinese growth and nothing to alter global economic reliance on U.S. consumption and Chinese production.

China has in fact grown its share in global manufacturing since the tariffs, as it redirected credit to factories from the property sector, as part of President Xi Jinping's push for new productive forces.

The tariffs had a smaller impact on the U.S. trade deficit with China than the latter's 2022 COVID-19 lockdowns, further evidence of their economic interdependence.

But a Trump trade war 2.0 would be a moment of reckoning for many Chinese exporters, whose profits are dwindling under heavy deflationary pressure, caused by state-directed investment into factories at the expense of consumers.

"If it's 60% tariffs, nobody can handle it," said Zeng Zhaoliang, the head of Guangzhou Liangsheng, which sells 30-40% of its low-margin cookers to the U.S.

Tariffs also push costs higher elsewhere, says GL Wholesale president Lance Ericson, who has been sourcing goods from China for 30 years and is now scouting suppliers in India, Vietnam and Cambodia to replace the 40% in business lost since Trump's presidency.

"The Indians are already raising prices by 10%," he said. "It's going to be bad for China. It's going to be bad for me."

Exports where China has an edge, such as electric vehicles, face high tariffs in the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere. Trump threatens to chase Chinese EV makers with 200% tariffs if they sell to the U.S. from Mexico, where BYD (SZ:002594) plans new factories.

While backlash against Chinese exports targets mainly solar panels, EVs and batteries, some markets such as Indonesia and India are raising tariffs on China-made clothing, ceramics or steel.

Other industries are taking notice.

"We're building factories overseas not just because of the U.S. market, but to prepare for changes in the global landscape," says Cheng Xinxian, an executive at appliance-maker Hangzhou Yongyao Technology.

CHINA RESPONSE

The earliest a 60% tariff could come into force would be mid-2025, economists say, reducing Chinese growth by 0.4-0.7 percentage points next year through diverted investment and jobs and output cuts.

Beijing can mitigate this with more stimulus, export controls and a weaker currency, although these steps carry risks such as capital flight, debt and further trade conflict.

"If Beijing is planning on giving rebates to factories and things like that, the tariffs are just going to go higher and higher," said Larry Sloven, who has been sourcing and manufacturing products across Asia for international companies since the 1970s.

"If you’re not spreading yourself, you’re dead, you’re in great danger."

Almost all exporters hoped Trump would moderate his stance if he wins.

Yang Qiong, an executive at Chongqing Hybest Tools Group, which makes hand-drills, air nailers and staplers, says her firm would expand Vietnam facilities if Trump returned, but stay put if Harris became president.

Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, says a second Trump term would undermine China's near-term growth through "challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper." But it also risks splintering a U.S. coalition of allies from Europe to east Asia that are increasingly like-minded on Beijing.

If Harris kept allies onside, "China would probably be more constricted economically over the medium term," he said.
2024-10-23 12:23:26
Oil prices dip as US inventories rise, M.East tensions persist

Investing.com-- Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday after industry data signaled an increase in U.S. oil inventories, while focus remained on diplomacy efforts by the U.S. to quell tensions in the Middle East. 


Crude prices gained some ground in the prior session after Israel said it had killed Hashem Safieddine, the heir apparent to the late Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasarallah, who was killed last month by an Israeli strike. 


U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held extended discussions with Israeli leaders this week over a potential de escalation in the conflict, while also pushing for more humanitarian aid in Gaza. 


Focus also remained on more economic cues from top oil importer China, amid persistent concerns over slowing demand in the country. 


Brent oil futures expiring in December fell 0.4% to $75.75 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.4% to $71.45 a barrel by 21:00 ET (01:00 GMT). 


US inventories clock bigger-than-expected build- API 

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. oil inventories grew 1.643 million barrels in the past week, compared to expectations for a build of 0.7 mb. 


The reading usually heralds a similar trend from official inventory data, which is due later on Wednesday, and spurred some concerns that U.S. fuel demand was cooling.


Oil prices were also pressured by recent strength in the dollar, as expectations of smaller interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve boosted the greenback to its strongest levels since early-August. 


Oil to remain around $76/barrel in 2025- Goldman Sachs 
Oil prices are expected to average around $76 a barrel in 2025, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent note, with markets to see a moderate crude surplus and spare capacity in major producers to offset any potential supply disruptions.

The investment bank said the risk premium for crude from tensions in the Middle East was limited, given that Iran-Israel tensions had so far not impacted oil supplies from the region. 

GS analysts also noted that major producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies had sufficient spare capacity. The cartel last week cut its oil demand forecast for 2024 and 2025, and is set to begin increasing production later this year.
2024-10-23 11:11:09
African progress backslides as coups and war persist

By Libby George


LONDON (Reuters) - Nearly half of Africa's citizens live in a country where governance has worsened over the past decade, as deteriorating security erodes progress, according to a new report.


The annual Ibrahim Index of African Governance report found that despite positive progress in 33 countries, overall governance was worse in 2023 in 21 countries, accounting for just under half of Africa's population, compared with 2014.


For several countries, including densely populated Nigeria and Uganda, the deterioration in overall governance had worsened over the second part of the decade, according to the report released by Sudanese-British billionaire businessman Mo Ibrahim's foundation.


"We can see really a huge arc of instability and conflicts and this deterioration, and security and safety of our people, is the biggest driver of deterioration and governance...putting everything down in general," Ibrahim told Reuters in an interview.


Ibrahim pointed to the coups in West Africa and war in Sudan, but said poor governance also fostered violence and instability.


"If there is deterioration on governance, if there is corruption, if there is marginalization...people are going to pick up arms," he said.


The report found that infrastructure - from mobile phone access to energy - and women's equality, were better in 2023 for roughly 95% of Africans.


Health, education and business environment metrics had also improved continent-wide.


But the report found that public perceptions on progress were grim, even when the corresponding governance dimensions showed progress; all public perception indicators, apart from those tracking women's leadership, declined.


The worst drops were in perceptions of economic opportunities and of safety and security.

The foundation said this could be due to higher expectations in countries that were making progress, and also a tendency to focus on what is not working.

But Ibrahim said it was a serious problem.

"If public dissatisfaction is high, that obviously can lead to unrest, it can lead to increased migration, conflicts," he said.
2024-10-23 08:44:10
European stocks mixed; IMF report, quarterly earnings in focus

Investing.com - European stock markets traded in a mixed fashion Tuesday, as investors digested more third-quarter corporate earnings amid uncertainty over global growth and the future path of interest rates. 


At 03:10 ET (07:10 GMT), the DAX index in Germany traded 0.5% higher, while the CAC 40 in France fell 0.1% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. dropped 0.4%.


IMF to update growth forecasts

The European Central Bank cut interest rates last week, the central bank’s first back-to-back rate cut since 2011 amid concerns about economic activity in the region.


The International Monetary Fund will update its global growth forecasts later Tuesday. 


IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva last week flagged a lackluster outlook, saying the global economy was headed for slow medium-term growth, and pointing to a "difficult future", with continued weakness in China and Europe.


 The European Central Bank is likely to cut its key interest rate down to its "natural" level between 2% and 3% but it may need to reduce it even further if a fall in inflation becomes entrenched, ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus said on Monday.


HSBC consolidates into four units

In the corporate sector, HSBC (LON:HSBA) stock fell 0.4% after the banking giant named veteran insider Pam Kaur as its first female finance chief and announced a consolidation of the bank into four business units.


SAP (ETR:SAPG) stock soared over 5% after the German software company raised its full-year targets on strong cloud business in the third quarter, with artificial intelligence a key growth driver.


Mulberry (LON:MUL) rejected a second takeover proposal from the Frasers Group, with the British luxury brand saying the possible offer is "untenable". 


InterContinental Hotels (LON:IHG) stock fell 2% after the group posted third-quarter room revenue growth, but still noted a subdued U.S. market and weakness in China.


Randstad (AS:RAND) sock rose 4% after the world's largest employment agency, reported quarterly profit slightly ahead of expectations as trading conditions stabilized across some of its markets despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.


Saab (ST:SAABb) sock rose almost 3% after the Swedish aerospace and defense company reported a rise in third-quarter operating earnings and affirmed its outlook for surging sales and profits this year.


The earnings deluge on Wall Street continues Tuesday, with results due from the likes of Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN), 3M, General Motors (NYSE:GM), Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ).


Crude slips on demand worries 

Oil prices dipped lower Tuesday as uncertainty over global demand growth, particularly from China, the world's top oil importer, continued to weigh. 


By 03:10 ET, the Brent contract dropped 0.7% to $73.74 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures (WTI) traded 0.7% lower at $69.54 per barrel.


International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol warned on Monday that economic weakness in China will continue to stunt global oil demand in the coming years.


Birol’s comments -- made in an interview with Bloomberg -- came after both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently cut their demand growth forecasts on concerns over China. 


The tensions in the Middle East remain in focus, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken headed to the region seeking to revive talks to end the conflict which has seen traders attach some risk premium to crude prices, on the prospect of supply disruptions in the region.

2024-10-22 16:28:31