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Inflation in Tokyo slows in May, but key gauge hits four-decade high

By Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) -Core consumer inflation in Japan's capital slowed in May but a key index stripping away the effect of fuel hit a four-decade high, underscoring broadening price pressure that may keep alive expectations of a withdrawal of ultra-loose monetary policy.

The data for Tokyo, which is seen as a leading indicator of nationwide trends, showed companies continued to pass on rising costs to households in a sign inflationary pressure could last longer than the Bank of Japan (BOJ) projects.

The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 3.2% in May from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, roughly matching a median market forecast for a 3.3% gain.

Inflation slowed from the previous month's 3.5% but stayed above the BOJ's 2% target for a full year, the data showed.

The dollar pared some losses against the yen after the data and stood around 140.05 in Asia trade on Friday.

A separate index stripping away both fresh food and fuel costs rose 3.9% in May from a year earlier, marking the fastest pace of increase since April 1982 when Japan was experiencing an asset-inflated bubble.

Japan's economy is finally recovering from the scars of the COVID-19 pandemic, though risks of a global slowdown and rising food prices hang over the outlook for exports and consumption.

With inflation already exceeding its target, markets are rife with speculation the BOJ could soon phase out ultra-loose monetary policy under new governor Kazuo Ueda.

Ueda, however, has brushed aside the chance of a near-term policy tweak, stressing that inflation must sustainably hit the BOJ's 2% target and accompanied by solid wage growth for the bank to consider phasing out stimulus.

2023-05-26 10:55:27

Argentina VP says IMF hinders growth in Revolution Day speech

By Lucinda Elliott and Eliana Raszewski

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentine Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner slammed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday, saying that the program agreed to with the multinational lender is holding back the country's economy.

Fernandez de Kirchner, speaking at an event commemorating Revolution Day in Buenos Aires' historic Plaza de Mayo, said the debt is impossible to pay off.

The government's ruling coalition is attempting to shore up support from the IMF and advance payments ahead of October elections.

"If we are do not set aside this program ... to develop our own plan for growth and industrialization, it will be impossible to pay for," the vice president said, standing alongside Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who is trying to keep the $44 billion program on track.

She said the original deal was "political" and that the IMF program does not allow the country to distribute wealth.

"The dead do not pay their debts," Kirchner said, quoting her late husband and former president, Nestor Kirchner, to thousands who gathered despite heavy rain.

Nestor Kirchner had uttered that line while president in 2005 when he announced that Argentina would pay off its $9.8 billion debt to the IMF before year-end and avoid a full-blown default. Like his wife, he repeatedly blamed the fund for bringing about poverty and "destitution."

The South American grains producer has a fraught history with the IMF. The country agreed to a $57 billion program with the Washington-based body in 2018 under former conservative leader Mauricio Macri to stave off economic crisis. That failed and was replaced last year with a deal to refinance the $44 billion in outstanding debt.

Fernandez de Kirchner, 70, a veteran on the left of the ruling Peronist party who served two terms as president between 2007 and 2015, called the original deal "scandalous" and a "scam" last week.

Her speech comes as Massa and his team are negotiating with the IMF to bring forward the disbursement of loans agreed to in 2022. A historic drought has hit grain exports, Argentina's top source of dollars, forcing both sides into talks to potentially revamp the deal.

The government wants faster payouts and easier economic targets as it works to rebuild reserves needed to cover trade costs and future debt repayments.

Massa is due to travel to China on May 29 to potentially expand Argentina's currency swap line with Beijing.

The ruling coalition faces an uphill battle against the conservative opposition in the Oct. 22 election, as voter dissatisfaction with soaring inflation, stagnant wages and years of economic turmoil dents public support.

Kirchner has insisted she will not run again, as has the current president, Alberto Fernandez.

(This story has been refiled to transpose the words 'the' and 'current' in paragraph 14)

Argentina VP says IMF hinders growth in Revolution Day speech

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2023-05-26 09:12:07

Analysis-Europe hits resistance in race to finalise green laws

By Kate Abnett

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Increased political resistance to new EU laws to protect the environment has left the European Commission fighting to keep intact its vision for Europe's green transition.

Ahead of elections in the European Parliament in June next year, the European Union is racing to finish legislation that includes two landmark nature bills - binding targets for countries to restore damaged natural habitats and a goal to halve chemical pesticide use by 2030.

Much EU environment legislation has been passed over the last two years, but the appetite on the part of some lawmakers and member states for more is waning and farming groups say further change must be conditional on more financial support.

Brussels proposed the nature measures last June. Opposition has mounted in recent weeks, as EU countries and lawmakers prepare for the final negotiations. The European Parliament's biggest group, the European People's Party, has called for the nature law to be scrapped saying it would hurt farmers.

"It's just too much. People are frustrated with new rules every year," EPP lawmaker Peter Liese said.

The Commission proposal gives countries discretion to decide how and where to reverse biodiversity loss. But that flexibility, Liese said, makes it impossible for farmers to prepare.

"No farmer can predict what's happening on his land, what kind of rules he has to follow, in the next years," Liese said.

Other EU green proposals have also met resistance. And as the elections approach, unfinished laws are piling up. Their fate would be unclear under a new EU Parliament with a different composition.

French President Emmanuel Macron this month suggested a pause on new European environment regulation, to give industries time to absorb recently-agreed laws.

The Commission last week delayed another scheduled package of environmental proposals, plus a bill on microplastic pollution. A Commission spokesperson declined to comment on the reason for the delay.

Meanwhile, EU countries are pushing to weaken proposed pollution curbs for farms and methane emission limits for energy producers. Some capitals want to scrap new car pollution limits, and the EU's renewable energy targets are deadlocked by an argument over whether nuclear energy can be included.

NATURE AND CLIMATE LINK

In the last two years, the Commission, whose make-up will also change following next year's parliamentary elections, has proposed more than 30 laws designed to deliver green goals. The aim is to steer countries towards the EU's target to have zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Most have been successfully passed, including tighter CO2 limits for cars, higher CO2 costs for industries and requirements to expand CO2-absorbing forests.

Many of the remaining bills are focused less on planet-warming CO2 emissions than on other environmental calamites - pollution, the collapse of bee and butterfly populations, or Europe's poor soil health.

EU officials say these crises are just as important as climate change, and are inextricably linked.

Restored ecosystems such as forests and peatlands, for instance, absorb more CO2 emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture - the sector most affected by the nature laws - have barely fallen since 2005, the European Environment Agency has said.

Scientists have also raised alarm that drastic declines in insect populations have serious implications for other species and food crop yields.

"Without the nature pillar, the climate pillar is also not viable," EU climate policy chief Frans Timmermans told EU lawmakers this week.

Campaigners say losing the bill would also undermine the EU's international standing, after it lobbied for more ambitious global action at last year's U.N. biodiversity COP15 summit.

Some countries, however, say more environment laws would overburden industries and risk denting political support for green measures.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo this week said nature restoration, pesticide control and soil quality needed to be addressed, but he considered they were "lower ranked priorities" than tackling climate change.

"We could lose that momentum that we have built if we overburden ourselves with challenges that are not as life-threatening as climate change," he told the Wirtschaftstag economic conference.

NATURE VERSUS INFRASTRUCTURE

In closed-door negotiations, countries are seeking a long list of changes to the nature restoration law, diplomats said.

Denmark and the Netherlands are among those that want amendments to ensure countries can still quickly build infrastructure such as wind farms in areas where nature is being restored.

"We cannot do everything everywhere - housing, energy transition, nature restoration, flood protection," Dutch Nature Minister Christianne van der Wal told Reuters.

Farming groups say the EU's increasing environmental demands are not being matched with funding - which they say should be in addition to the EU's existing farming subsidies.

"The missing EU funding for this is a clear problem," said Pekka Pesonen, who heads European farming group Copa-Cogeca.

Even if countries find a compromise, the European Parliament could block the law, if other lawmaker groups side with the EPP. Two EU Parliament committees this week voted to reject it, signalling a tough vote ahead in the full Parliament.

2023-05-25 16:39:02

Pakistan slashes provisional GDP growth to 0.29% for 2022-23

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year, ending June 30, to 0.29% from 2%, the country's national accounts committee said in a statement, as a slowdown in the agriculture and industrial sectors curbed growth.

Gripped by economic turmoil and suffering a balance of payments crisis, Pakistan is trying to reach agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to disburse the stalled final $1.1 billion from a $6.5 billion bailout agreed in 2019.

Pakistan's central bank said on Friday GDP growth was likely to remain significantly lower for financial year 2022-23 than the previous year, when growth was revised up to 5.77%.

The country posted highest ever inflation at 36.4% in April and its currency has depreciated to a historic low.

The national accounts committee's latest GDP growth forecast is lower than the World Bank's estimate of 0.4%, while the IMF said in April that the growth would be 0.5%.

2023-05-25 15:10:44

Republicans, White House see progress in US debt ceiling talks

By David Morgan, Andrea Shalal and Moira Warburton

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Negotiators for Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy held what both sides called productive talks on Wednesday to try to reach a deal to raise the United States' $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default.

After a four-hour White House meeting, U.S. House Speaker McCarthy said negotiations had improved and would continue in the evening. He predicted the two sides would reach an agreement, though several issues remain unresolved.

"We've made some progress working down there. So that's very positive," McCarthy told reporters. "I want to make sure we get the right agreement. I can see that we're working towards that."

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said talks remain fruitful.

"If it keeps going in good faith, we can get to an agreement here," she said at a briefing while discussions were taking place.

But the White House and congressional Democrats also accused Republicans of taking the economy hostage to advance an agenda they could otherwise not pass. They said Republicans need to make more concessions as they will need Democratic votes to pass any deal.

"Just listen to members of The House Freedom Caucus... now openly referring to the full faith and credit of the United States as a hostage," Jean-Pierre, the White House spokesperson, said.

Ratings agency have taken note of the impasse with McCarthy insisting on spending cuts while Biden wants to hold spending steady.

Fitch put the United States' "AAA" ratings on negative watch on Wednesday. The agency said it believes "risks have risen" that the debt ceiling will not be raised before the so-called X-date, when the Treasury runs out of money, adding that "increased political partisanship... is hindering reaching a resolution."

A White House spokesperson said the Fitch rating is "one more piece of evidence that default is not an option and all responsible lawmakers understand that. It reinforces the need for Congress to quickly pass a reasonable, bipartisan agreement to prevent default.”

Moody's (NYSE:MCO), another rating agency, might change its assessment of U.S. debt if lawmakers indicate a default is expected. Moody's currently has a top-notch "AAA" rating for U.S. debt, while rival rating agency S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) lowered its rating following a 2011 debt-ceiling showdown. A lower rating could push up borrowing costs.

Time is running short, as the Treasury Department has warned the federal government could be unable to pay all its bills by as soon as June 1 - just eight days away - and it will take several days to pass legislation through the narrowly divided Congress.

House Republican leaders said they would adjourn on Thursday for a week-long Memorial Day holiday recess scheduled but would call lawmakers back if needed for any votes, Punchbowl News reported.

McCarthy has insisted that any deal must not raise taxes and must cut discretionary spending, not hold it steady as Biden has proposed.

Any deal that Biden and McCarthy reach will have a narrow path for passage through the divided Congress, where McCarthy's Republicans hold a 222-213 House majority and Biden's Democrats control the Senate by a 51-49 margin.

The lack of progress has heightened concerns that Congress could inadvertently trigger a crisis by failing to act in time.

"We're certainly getting to a place that's too close for comfort," said Shai Akabas of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank.

STOCKS SLIDE

The months-long standoff has spooked Wall Street, weighing on U.S. stocks and pushing the nation's cost of borrowing higher.

U.S. stock indexes fell on Wednesday on debt-ceiling concerns.

"Up until yesterday, investors have been very optimistic," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones. "But now as we get closer ... we are seeing some caution again."

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday said the United States will be unable to pay all its bills by early June but said she did not know exactly what day the government will run out of resources.

That would trigger a Wall Street meltdown and push the U.S. economy toward recession, with the default also hitting regular Americans, economists say. Medical providers that rely on government payments could be among the first to feel the heat.

Republicans want to cut discretionary spending for the 2024 fiscal year beginning in October by roughly 8%, while Democrats have pushed to hold it steady at this year's rate.

Negotiators differ over Republicans' proposals to impose new work requirements on benefits programs for low-income Americans and loosen energy permitting rules.

The White House has offered to limit discretionary spending for the coming two years, in line with previous bipartisan budget agreements. Republicans have offered spending caps for the coming six years.

Republicans have rejected White House proposals to set a minimum tax on corporations and billionaires and broaden the government's ability to negotiate lower prices for prescription drugs, according to Democratic Representative Pramila Jayapal, who leads the 101-member Congressional Progressive Caucus.

Congress regularly needs to raise the nation's self-imposed debt limit to cover the cost of spending and tax cuts it has already approved.

2023-05-25 13:19:00

BOJ may abandon bond yield cap this year - govt panellist

By Leika Kihara and Takahiko Wada

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may abandon a controversial bond yield cap this year if risks clouding the outlook, such as global banking sector woes, subside, Toshihiro Nagahama, an economist who participated in a key government panel, told Reuters.

Nagahama, who was invited to speak at the panel's special session on economic policy held May 15, said Japan must avoid removing monetary and fiscal support prematurely to ensure recent positive signs in wage and consumption are sustained.

Until there is clarity that wages will keep rising steadily next year, the BOJ must hold off raising its short-term interest rate target from the current level of -0.1%, he said in an interview on Wednesday.

As long as short-term borrowing costs are kept low, however, the central bank could remove a 0.5% cap set on the 10-year bond yield without causing too much damage to the economy, said Nagahama, an economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

The BOJ will probably wait until concern over global banking sector woes and the U.S. debt ceiling standoff eases, he said.

"Once such risks subside and markets remain calm, the BOJ may tweak yield curve control," Nagahama said. "I won't be surprised if such a move occurs this year."

As part of efforts to reflate the economy and sustainably push inflation to its 2% target, the BOJ guides short-term rates at -0.1% and pledges to guide the 10-year bond yield around 0% under a policy dubbed yield curve control (YCC).

In December, the BOJ raised the cap to 0.5% from 0.25%, after being forced to ramp up bond buying to defend the ceiling against investors betting on a near-term tweak to YCC.

The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has recently hovered around 0.4%, after the BOJ took a range of steps to counter market attacks against the cap.

With inflation exceeding its 2% target, markets are simmering with speculation the BOJ will remove or raise the 0.5% yield cap that has drawn criticism for distorting market pricing.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week the central bank was unwavering in its commitment to maintain ultra-loose policy, ruling out the chance of a near-term tweak to YCC.

2023-05-25 11:27:50

Japan firms feel 'sense of crisis' over falling birthrate - Reuters poll

By Tim Kelly

TOKYO (Reuters) - More than nine out of 10 Japanese firms feel a sense of crisis about the country's accelerating birthrate decline, with few hopeful that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government can arrest the fall, according to a Reuters monthly poll.

Kishida unveiled a plan in March to reverse the birthrate trend, a problem that has worsened under successive Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) administrations, threatening to further shrink the country's workforce and sap consumer demand.

Those measures, which include expanding child allowance provisions, increasing paid parental leave and providing subsidies for fertility treatments came after the government revealed that annual births last year had dipped below 800,000 for the first time, eight years earlier than expected.

Of nearly 500 major companies surveyed by Reuters, 94% said they felt a sense of crisis when asked about the fall in annual births in 2022. Only 14% of firms said they were hopeful that Kishida's measures would work, with 34% saying they would not. The remaining companies that responded, did not express a view.

"The LDP response is about securing votes, it is not seriously tackling the problem," a representative from a transport machinery company said, on condition the company wasn't identified.

Like other major industrial economies, Japan is raising the retirement age and encouraging more women to work as its population ages. Unlike some countries, however, it has not sought out large numbers of foreign workers to fill its job vacancies.

"We need to develop overseas markets and also have to make use of foreign workers," a representative from a food maker said.

At 49, Japan's median age is second only to the city state of Monaco and it is one of the most expensive places in the world to raise a child.

Kishida's administration has said it will release the details next month of how it will fund a birthrate initiative that is expected to double government spending on childcare.

In the Reuters poll, 54% of companies said they wanted the government to increase taxes to pay for the increased spending, of which just under a half said they wanted a hike in the sales tax paid by consumers. Only 18% of firms urged an increase in government borrowing.

The Reuters Corporate Survey, conducted for Reuters by Nikkei Research between May 10 and May 19, canvassed 493 big non-financial Japanese firms, including 246 manufacturers and 247 non-manufacturers.

They were polled on condition of anonymity, allowing respondents to speak more freely.

Click here for a more detailed breakdown of the poll results.

2023-05-25 10:16:47

South Africans face more interest rate hike pain as inflation sticks

By Kopano Gumbi

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa's central bank will likely extend its tightening cycle and push rates cuts further into the future amid countrywide power outages and currency weakness, analysts said, adding to inflationary pressures straining businesses and households.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) - which is facing a dilemma of how to keep a lid on inflation without further stifling already anaemic economic growth - has hiked its main lending rate by 425 basis points since November 2021.

But inflation continues to run hot.

The next rate decision is on Thursday, and a majority of economists surveyed by Reuters last week expect a 25 basis points (bps) hike to 8.00%.

But some analysts, like Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), have ramped up their forecasts, now expecting the bank to deliver a 50 bps hike and predicting the first rate cut would not come until well into 2024.

"The risk of worsening electricity cuts as well geopolitical concerns after the U.S. ambassador claimed the country was not acting in a non-aligned manner in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have significantly impacted the currency," said Alexandru-Chidesciuc.

The outlook faced by South African policy makers is at odds with other developing economies' central banks, many of which have front-run the U.S. Federal Reserve in their hiking cycles and are gearing up to deliver cuts in the coming months.

This provides relief at a time when growth woes for the world's top two economies - the U.S and China - dominate. Among major emerging markets, only Israel and Colombia have recently raised rates. Hungary on Tuesday started the first policy easing cycle in Europe.

SARB Deputy Governor Rashad Cassim acknowledged in an interview with Reuters on May 3 that rate hikes were unpopular in a low-growth economy but said the priority was managing inflation expectations. Annual consumer price inflation is running at over 7%, above the central bank's target range of 3%-6%.

"We want to ensure that the depreciated exchange rate and (high) food prices don't permeate into other parts of the inflation basket," Cassim said.

"If we did nothing, (consumer) income is going to erode more and more. So maybe a little initial pain may benefit consumers in the medium to long run."

South Africans were already facing rising prices after COVID-19 and the Ukraine war disrupted supply chains. The power crisis has added to pressure, as businesses, including food producers and retailers, spend more on alternatives such as diesel generators and pass on the costs to consumers.

The central bank estimates that rolling blackouts - which can last up to 10 hours a day - will add 0.5 percentage points to headline inflation in 2023.

The rand weakening more than 10% this year makes imports more expensive.

"With the rand's substantial weakness and markedly higher production and retail costs coming from (power cuts), the risk to the inflation outlook on balance is still on the upside," said Annabel Bishop, chief economist at South African lender Investec.

"We expect on balance that a 50 basis points hike is more likely ... instead of a 25 basis points lift."

CREDIT WORRIES

Credit demand has been rising as household incomes have not kept up with prices, economists said, and higher borrowing costs could increase indebtedness.

The rate of new defaults on credit cards in the fourth quarter rose 20% year-on-year and those on home loans 19%, according to a Eighty20/XDS credit stress report.

"Even if interest rates come down at least by 2025, we may see the consumer still battling with the price pressures they had to deal with now, and how they might have chosen to deal with them," said Koketso Mano, senior economist at South African lender FNB.

2023-05-24 17:03:42

EU, U.S. to seek stopgap standards for AI - EU tech chief

By Philip Blenkinsop

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union and the United States are set to step up cooperation on artificial intelligence with a view to establishing minimum standards before legislation enters force, the EU's tech chief Margrethe Vestager said on Tuesday.

The European Union's AI Act could be the world's first comprehensive legislation governing the technology, with new rules on facial recognition and biometric surveillance, but EU governments and lawmakers still need to agree a common text.

Vestager, a vice-president of the European Commission, told a briefing on Tuesday that process might be completed by the end of the year.

"That would still leave one if not two years then to come into effect, which means that we need something to bridge that period of time," she said.

Vestager said AI would be one area of focus at the fourth ministerial-level meeting of the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in Sweden on May 30-31, with discussions on generative AI algorithms that produce new text, visual or sound content, such as ChatGPT.

"There is a shared sense of urgency. In order to make the most of this technology, guard rails are needed," she said. "Can we discuss what we can expect companies to do as a minimum before legislation kicks in?"

Leaders of the G7 nations called on Saturday for the development of technical standards to keep AI "trustworthy", urging international discussions on topics such as governance, copyrights, transparency and the threat of disinformation.

Vestager, who is expected to discuss AI with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) chief Sundar Pichai on Wednesday, noted these international talks had not yet happened. G7 leaders tasked relevant ministers to set up a G7 working group on AI by the end of the year.

"I think that we can talk about this within the TTC in a way that will help the G7 process to be as concrete as possible," she said.

2023-05-24 15:08:06

US securities regulator shuts down 'sham' marijuana offering

By Chris Prentice

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday said it obtained an order to shut down an alleged Ponzi-like scheme run by two individuals who raised nearly $62 million from investors for a sham cannabis business.

Since at least June 2019, Rolf Max Hirschmann and Patrick Earl Williams promised investors returns as high as 36% on funds they said would go toward expanding facilities for Integrated National Resources, or WeedGenics, in California and Nevada, the SEC said in a statement and court filing.

Those facilities did not exist, according to the SEC.

Hirschmann and Williams used most of the funds to pay off other investors, finance home upgrades, and buy luxury cars, jewelry and "adult entertainment," the SEC said in a complaint filed in federal court in California.

Neither Hirschmann nor Williams could be reached immediately for comment.

Williams, 34, lives in Florida and spent the money on his career as a rap musician known as "BigRigBaby," the SEC said.

Hirschmann, 52, lives in Idaho and went by "Max Bergmann" while communicating with investors, according to regulators.

"Rolf Hirschmann and Patrick Williams allegedly had no real company, no product, and no business, yet despite this, they promised investors everything and then delivered nothing," Michele Wein Layne, director of the SEC's Los Angeles regional office, said in the statement.

WeedGenics described itself as a vertically-integrated manufacturer of cannabis products on its website.

"It was all a sham," the SEC said.

2023-05-24 13:52:19

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