LONDON (Reuters) - Pay increases granted by British employers held steady in the three months to January at the lowest level since 2021, signalling a shift towards more restrained rises as businesses try to cope with economic pressures, according to a survey on Wednesday.

Human resources data firm Brightmine said the median pay award held at 3% for the second consecutive rolling quarter, following a revision of figures from 3.3% for the three months to December 2024.

"This is the lowest median pay settlement recorded since December 2021," Brightmine said in a statement, adding that upcoming increases in employers' social security contributions could further influence pay decisions in the months ahead.

Employers say the government's plan to boost the social security contributions they pay from April - when Britain's minimum wage is also due to rise by almost 7% - will reduce hiring and wage growth.

Data from the Office of National Statistics showed on Tuesday that British pay growth accelerated in late 2024 but the Bank of England expects pay increases to slow soon as weakness in the economy weighs on the labour market.

The British economy stagnated in the third quarter of 2024 but unexpectedly grew 0.1% in the last three months of the year.

Brightmine's survey also showed that turnover rates have remained largely unchanged in 2024 compared to the previous year. However, more than one-third of organisations are concerned that turnover levels are too high.

"While labour turnover rates have stabilised, the combination of pay awards stalling and ongoing concerns about workload and career progression could increase resignations later in 2025," said Brightmine's Sheila Attwood.

"Employers may need to balance cost control with competitive pay and other retention measures to avoid unwanted staff losses," Attwood added.

Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks retreated on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose more import tariffs on key sectors, while South Korean shares rallied to a five-month high on strength in technology. 

But broader Asian losses were limited, as Chinese markets continued to rally on optimism over artificial intelligence and more government support. 

Regional markets took middling cues from a mostly flat overnight session on Wall Street, although the S&P 500 did inch up to a record high. U.S. stock index futures rose slightly in Asian trade, appearing unperturbed by Trump’s new tariff threats. 

Focus this week is on more cues from the Federal Reserve, as well as a string of key purchasing managers index readings. 

Japan, HK stocks weaken as Trump threatens more tariffs 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes fell 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the worst performer in Asia, losing as much as 0.7%.

Trump on Tuesday evening threatened to impose 25% duties on automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor imports, with his auto tariffs coming by as soon as April.

Trump did not specify a timeline for tariffs on drugs and chips, stating that he wished to give manufacturers more time to set up U.S. operations.

The move is the latest in the U.S. President’s agenda of using tariffs to further U.S. interests. 

But markets clocked relatively smaller losses than seen in the past, reflecting some resilience towards Trump’s tariff threats. While the U.S. president has imposed higher tariffs on some sectors and countries over the past month, he has stopped short of imposing some of his more steep tariffs, sparking some hopes that the tariff threats will be more of a negotiating tactic. 

South Korea’s KOSPI surges on tech strength 

South Korea’s KOSPI was the best performer in Asia, rallying 1.8% to a five-month high. 

The KOSPI has been on a tear over the past week, buoyed by hopes of improving political conditions in the country, as a trial against impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol came to a close.

The KOSPI also benefited from sustained bargain buying, after Yeol’s attempt to impose martial law in December had sparked steep losses in South Korean markets. But they now appeared to have recouped all of their recent losses. 

Local chipmakers also benefited from positive sentiment towards AI, with SK Hynix Inc (KS:000660) and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (KS:005930) rising between 2% and 4%. 

Other major Asian markets advanced on Wednesday. China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes surged around 0.7% each after President Xi Jinping met with key tech CEOs earlier this week. Beijing was also seen vowing more support for private industries. 

Singapore’s Straits Times index rose 0.4%, even as index heavyweight United Overseas Bank Ltd (SGX:UOBH) fell 0.6% from record highs. But the lender clocked stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and announced a $2.2 billion capital return. 

Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index pointed to muted open, as local stocks struggled with the prospect of higher U.S. trade tariffs against India.

By Andrea Shalal and Nandita Bose

PALM BEACH, Florida (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he intends to impose auto tariffs "in the neighborhood of 25%" and similar duties on semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports, the latest in a series of measures threatening to upend international trade.

On Friday, Trump said levies on automobiles would come as soon as April 2, the day after members of his cabinet are due to deliver reports to him outlining options for a range of import duties as he seeks to reshape global trade.

Trump has long railed against what he calls the unfair treatment of U.S. automotive exports in foreign markets.

The European Union, for instance, collects a 10% duty on vehicle imports, four times the U.S. passenger car tariff rate of 2.5%. The U.S., though, collects a 25% tariff on pickup trucks from countries other than Mexico and Canada, a tax that makes the vehicles highly profitable for Detroit automakers.

EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic will meet with U.S. counterparts - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump's nominee to be U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett - in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the various tariffs threatened by Trump.

Asked whether the EU could avoid reciprocal tariffs he proposed last week, Trump repeated his claim that the EU had already signaled it would lower its tariffs on U.S. cars to the U.S. rate, although EU lawmakers have denied doing so.

He said he would press EU officials to increase U.S. imports of cars and other products.
 

By Andrea Shalal and Nandita Bose

PALM BEACH, Florida (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he intends to impose auto tariffs "in the neighborhood of 25%" and similar duties on semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports, the latest in a series of measures threatening to upend international trade.

On Friday, Trump said levies on automobiles would come as soon as April 2, the day after members of his cabinet are due to deliver reports to him outlining options for a range of import duties as he seeks to reshape global trade.

Trump has long railed against what he calls the unfair treatment of U.S. automotive exports in foreign markets.

The European Union, for instance, collects a 10% duty on vehicle imports, four times the U.S. passenger car tariff rate of 2.5%. The U.S., though, collects a 25% tariff on pickup trucks from countries other than Mexico and Canada, a tax that makes the vehicles highly profitable for Detroit automakers.

EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic will meet with U.S. counterparts - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump's nominee to be U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett - in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the various tariffs threatened by Trump.

PHARMA, CHIPS DUTIES

Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Tuesday that sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips would also start at "25% or higher", rising substantially over the course of a year.

He did not provide a date for announcing those duties and said he wanted to provide some time for drug and chip makers to set up U.S. factories so that they can avoid tariffs.

Trump said he expected some of the biggest companies in the world to announce new investments in the United States in the next couple of weeks. He provided no further details.

Since his inauguration four weeks ago, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from China, on top of existing levies, over China's failure to halt fentanyl trafficking. He also announced, and then delayed for a month, 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and non-energy imports from Canada.

He has also set a March 12 start date for 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum, eliminating exemptions for Canada, Mexico, the European Union and other trading partners. Trump also announced that these tariffs would apply to hundreds of imported downstream products made of steel and aluminum, from electrical conduit tubing to bulldozer blades.

Last week, he directed his economic team to devise plans to impose reciprocal tariffs that match the tariff rates of every country product-by-product.

SHELVED CAR TARIFFS

An auto import tariff of 25% would be a game-changer for a global auto industry that is already reeling from uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff drama.

Asked whether the EU could avoid reciprocal tariffs he proposed last week, Trump repeated his claim that the EU had already signaled it would lower its tariffs on U.S. cars to the U.S. rate, although EU lawmakers have denied doing so.

He said he would press EU officials to increase U.S. imports of cars and other products.

A similar drama played out in 2018 and 2019 during Trump's first term, when the Commerce Department conducted a national security investigation into auto imports and found that they weakened the domestic industrial base. Trump had threatened car tariffs of 25% at that time, but ultimately took no action, allowing the tariff authority from that probe to expire.

But some of the research that went into the 2018 investigation may be reused or updated as part of a new automotive tariff effort.

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 squeaked past its previous record closing high on Tuesday at the top of a holiday-shortened week, with earnings season winding down, U.S. Federal Reserve minutes on tap, and geopolitical uncertainties churning in the background.

The three major stock indexes wobbled between red and green for much of the session, but all three managed to flip green in the closing minutes.

"There's a little bit of a three-day weekend hangover today," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. "There's just truly not a lot going on, which kind of a nice change as we simply consolidate right beneath potential new all-time highs."

"At the same time we have the Fed minutes, coming out tomorrow and big retail earnings also coming out later this week," Detrick added. "But when you put it all together, you have a day like today where it's just kind of 'wait-and-see.'"

On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to release the minutes of its January policy meeting, at which the voting members elected to let interest rates stand amid signs of an inflation rebound and the unknown extent and effects of President Trump's threatened tariffs.

Remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers largely adhered to the same script, with Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller saying they believe economic strength and elevated inflation warrant holding the policy rate steady for the time being.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated that a pause in rate cuts is appropriate until more visible progress is made toward bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal.

The minutes will be scrutinized for clues regarding the central bank's path forward, particularly in light of recent data, which shows price growth gaining momentum, falling consumer sentiment and weaker-than-expected retail sales.

"The Fed is being reasonably transparent here," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. "There's been evidence that the economy is slowing down a little bit and I'm sure they're watching that. But I don't think they feel significant pressure, at least at this point, to drop rates anytime soon."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10.26 points, or 0.02%, to 44,556.34, the S&P 500 gained 14.95 points, or 0.24%, to 6,129.58 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 14.49 points, or 0.07%, to 20,041.26.

Fourth-quarter earnings season has come around the final bend, with 383 companies in the S&P 500 having reported as of Friday. Of those, 74% have posted better-than-expected results, according to LSEG data.

Analysts currently see fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 15.3% year-on-year, up from the 9.6% estimate as it stood on Jan. 1.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) jumped 16.1% after a report over the weekend said rivals Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) were considering potential deals that could split the chipmaker in two.

The move gave a boost to the Philadelphia SE semiconductor index, which gained 1.7%.

Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) jumped 4.0% after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa) disclosed a new investment in the company on Friday.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) slid 2.8%, snapping its 20-session winning streak.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.53-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 298 new highs and 85 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, 2,289 stocks rose and 2,087 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.1-to-1 ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 126 new highs and 113 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 16.36 billion shares, compared with the 15.57 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

MILAN (Reuters) - Bullish investors cut cash levels to 3.5%, the lowest since 2010, as they went long stocks and "short everything else", a survey of investors from BofA Global Research showed on Tuesday.

BofA said equity investors rotated into bond-sensitive sectors, such as pharma, biotech, utilities and REITs, and to Europe, as a measure of investor fear of a global recession fell to a 3-year low and a trade war seen as no more than a tail risk.

Tech recorded its largest month-on-month allocation drop since September 2022, according to the monthly global survey of 168 participants with $401 billion of asset under management.

"Long Mag 7" remained the most crowded trade, BofA said, but US exceptionalism peaked, with 89% saying U.S. stocks are overvalued.

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% following a monthly policy meeting.

The following is a chronology of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate moves since 1990. Each move is measured in basis points (bp), which are one-hundredths of a percentage point.

Feb 18 2025 Down 25 bp to 4.10

Nov 7 2023 Up 25 bp to 4.35

Jun 6 2023 Up 25 bp to 4.10

May 2 2023 Up 25 bp to 3.85

Mar 7 2023 Up 25 bp to 3.60

Feb 7 2023 Up 25 bp to 3.35

Dec 6 2022 Up 25 bp to 3.10

Nov 1 2022 Up 25 bp to 2.85

Oct 4 2022 Up 25 bp to 2.60

Sep 6 2022 Up 50 bp to 2.35

Aug 2 2022 Up 50 bp to 1.85

Jul 5 2022 Up 50 bp to 1.35

Jun 7 2022 Up 50 bp to 0.85

May 3 2022 Up 25 bp to 0.35

Nov 3 2020 Down 15 bp to 0.10

Mar 19 2020 Down 25 bp to 0.25

Mar 3 2020 Down 25 bp to 0.50

Oct 1 2019 Down 25 bp to 0.75

Jul 2 2019 Down 25 bp to 1.00

Jun 4 2019 Down 25 bp to 1.25

Aug 2 2016 Down 25 bp to 1.50

May 3 2016 Down 25 bp to 1.75

May 5 2015 Down 25 bp to 2.00

Feb 3 2015 Down 25 bp to 2.25

Aug 6 2013 Down 25 bp to 2.50

May 7 2013 Down 25 bp to 2.75

Dec 4 2012 Down 25 bp to 3.00

Oct 2 2012 Down 25 bp to 3.25

Jun 5 2012 Down 25 bp to 3.50

May 1 2012 Down 50 bp to 3.75

Dec 6 2011 Down 25 bp to 4.25

Nov 1 2011 Down 25 bp to 4.50

Nov 2 2010 Up 25 bp to 4.75

May 4 2010 Up 25 bp to 4.50

Apr 6 2010 Up 25 bp to 4.25

Mar 2 2010 Up 25 bp to 4.00

Dec 1 2009 Up 25 bp to 3.75

Nov 3 2009 Up 25 bp to 3.50

Oct 6 2009 Up 25 bp to 3.25

Apr 7 2009 Down 25 bp to 3.00

Feb 3 2009 Down 100 bp to 3.25

Dec 2 2008 Down 100 bp to 4.25

Nov 4 2008 Down 75 bp to 5.25

Oct 7 2008 Down 100 bp to 6.00

Sep 2 2008 Down 25 bp to 7.00

Mar 4 2008 Up 25 bp to 7.25

Feb 5 2008 Up 25 bp to 7.00

Nov 7 2007 Up 25 bp to 6.75

Aug 8 2007 Up 25 bp to 6.50

Nov 8 2006 Up 25 bp to 6.25

Aug 2 2006 Up 25 bp to 6.00

May 3 2006 Up 25 bp to 5.75

Mar 2 2005 Up 25 bp to 5.50

Dec 3 2003 Up 25 bp to 5.25

Nov 5 2003 Up 25 bp to 5.00

June 5 2002 Up 25 bp to 4.75

May 8 2002 Up 25 bp to 4.50

Dec 5 2001 Down 25 bp to 4.25

Oct 3 2001 Down 25 bp to 4.50

Sept 5 2001 Down 25 bp to 4.75

Apr 4 2001 Down 50 bp to 5.0

Mar 7 2001 Down 25 bp to 5.5

Feb 7 2001 Down 50 bp to 5.75

Aug 2 2000 Up 25 bp to 6.25

May 3 2000 Up 25 bp to 6.0

Apr 5 2000 Up 25 bp to 5.75

Feb 2 2000 Up 50 bp to 5.5

Nov 3 1999 Up 25 bp to 5.0

Dec 2 1998 Down 25 bp to 4.75

Jul 30 1997 Down 50 bp to 5.0

May 23 1997 Down 50 bp to 5.5

Dec 11 1996 Down 50 bp to 6.0

Nov 6 1996 Down 50 bp to 6.5

Jul 31 1996 Down 50 bp to 7.0

Dec 14 1994 Up 100 bp to 7.5

Oct 24 1994 Up 100 bp to 6.5

Aug 17 1994 Up 75 bp to 5.5

Jul 30 1993 Down 50 bp to 4.75

Mar 23 1993 Down 50 bp to 5.25

Jul 8 1992 Down 75 bp to 5.75

May 6 1992 Down 100 bp to 6.5

Jan 8 1992 Down 100 bp to 7.5

Nov 6 1991 Down 100 bp to 8.5

Sep 3 1991 Down 100 bp to 9.5

May 16 1991 Down 100 bp to 10.5

Apr 4 1991 Down 50 bp to 11.5

Dec 18 1990 Down 100 bp to 12.0

Oct 15 1990 Down 100 bp to 13.0

Aug 2 1990 Down 100 bp to 14.0

Apr 4 1990 Down 100-150bp to 15.0 to 15.5

Feb 15 1990 Down 50 bp to 16.5 to 17.0

Jan 23 1990 Down 50-100bp to 17.0 to 17.5

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea acting President Choi Sang-mok on Tuesday said the government plans to roll out a record 360 trillion won ($249.3 billion) worth of trade policy financing to aid exporters facing intensifying headwinds from U.S. tariff policies.

"From now on, we will be making all-out efforts. The fortunes of each country will differ depending on how each responds to the trade war initiated by the U.S.," Choi told a cabinet meeting.

($1 = 1,444.4100 won)

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from $2,890, citing sustained central bank demand.

The bank estimates that "structurally higher central bank demand will add 9% to the gold price by year-end, which combined with a gradual boost to ETF holdings as the funds rate declines."

This should outweigh the drag from normalizing investor positioning, assuming uncertainty diminishes, Goldman Sachs added.

However, if policy uncertainty, including tariff concerns, remains high, Goldman sees the potential for gold to surge to $3,300 per ounce by year-end due to prolonged speculative positioning.

The bank has also revised its central bank demand assumption upward to 50 tonnes per month from the previous estimate of 41 tonnes.

If purchases average 70 tonnes per month, gold prices could climb to $3,200 per ounce by the end of 2025, assuming positioning normalizes, Goldman said.

Conversely, if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady, the bank expects gold to reach $3,060 per ounce in the same period, the bank added.

Reiterating its "Go for Gold" trading recommendation, Goldman Sachs said that while declining uncertainty could lead to a tactical pullback in prices, long gold positions remain a strong hedge.

This is particularly relevant in the face of potential trade tensions, Federal Reserve subordination risks, and financial or recessionary threats, which could push prices toward the upper end of Goldman's high-uncertainty range, the bank said.

Additionally, if concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability escalate, Goldman Sachs sees gold rising an extra 5% to $3,250 per ounce by December 2025.

Growing fears of inflation and fiscal risks could drive speculative positioning and ETF flows higher, while worries about U.S. debt sustainability may encourage central banks, especially those with large U.S. Treasury reserves, to increase their gold purchases, the investment bank added.

By Nell Mackenzie

LONDON (Reuters) -European shares rose to record levels on Monday, led by defence stocks, as the region's political leaders called for an emergency summit on the Ukraine war amid growing U.S. calls to boost military spending for security.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index was last up 0.4%, as a gauge of defence and aerospace stocks surged almost 4% to lifetime peaks, having already more than doubled in value since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago.

Investors expect earnings in the industry to continue to rise strongly, driven by a significant surge in defence budgets to meet new security needs - which analysts have dubbed a "supercycle" for the sector.

"A resolution to the conflict in Ukraine could deliver positive growth impulses for Europe, including improved consumer confidence, lower energy prices, and easier financial conditions," Bruno Schneller, managing director at Erlen Capital Management.

Banks were also in demand, up 1.2% and flying to 17-year highs, helped by a rise in bond yields.

French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday hosted an emergency summit on Ukraine after U.S. officials suggested Europe would have no role in any talks this week in Saudi Arabia aimed at ending the conflict.

Britain said it was ready to send peacekeeping troops to back up any deal, while Russian and U.S. officials prepared to meet for their own competing talks on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that the country would not recognise any decisions made in deliberations where they were not present.

DELAYED THREATS

The imminent threat of reciprocal U.S. tariffs has receded until April, but the risk that they might include levies based on value added taxes in other countries was a major worry.

"Trade policy remains a wildcard, with the potential for incremental tariffs and their impact on inflation and growth. While the announced tariffs have not yet materially altered the economic landscape, further escalation could introduce new uncertainties," Schneller added.

The Financial Times reported on Sunday that the European Commission would explore tough import limits on certain foods made to different standards in an effort to protect its farmers, echoing U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal trade policy.

U.S. markets are shut on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday, keeping trading volumes lighter than usual, though the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures rose 0.2%.

S&P 500 ended Friday up 1.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq gained 2.6%. [.N]

The week ahead is filled with key data releases, including February flash business activity data across the globe while in Europe, markets also have their eye on German elections this weekend.

The euro was little ticked down 0.2% around $1.05, while the dollar slipped almost 0.6% to 151.46 yen.,

The pound held steady at around $1.2593 , just below its highest level in two months, as investors looked towards employment and inflation data later in the week.

Central banks in Australia and New Zealand are both expected to cut interest rates at policy meetings this week.

In commodity markets, gold came off Friday's record highs at $2,899 an ounce having rallied for seven weeks straight. [GOL/]

Oil producer group OPEC+ is considering pushing back a series of monthly supply increases due to begin in April despite calls from Trump to lower prices, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing delegates. [O/R]

Brent rose 9 cents to $74.82 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 13 cents to $70.87 per barrel.

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia booked a $3.45 billion merchandise trade surplus in January, bigger than expected, amid surprisingly weak imports, official data showed on Monday.

A Reuters poll of analysts had expected a surplus of $1.91 billion for January.

Imports last month were worth $18 billion, down 2.67% from the same month a year earlier, in contrast with analysts' forecast of a 9.95% growth.

Exports rose 4.68% on an annual basis in January to $21.45 billion, compared with 6.99% growth expected in the poll.