By Michael S. Derby

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. workers are growing more sour with their employment compensation, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve.

In its Survey of Consumer Expectations Labor Market Survey for July, the regional Fed bank said that as of last month, "satisfaction with wage compensation as well as with non-wage benefits and promotion opportunities at respondents' current jobs all deteriorated."

As of July, 56.7% of respondents said they were satisfied with their pay compared to 59.9% who held the similar view in July 2023. Benefits satisfaction dropped to 56.3% from 64.9% over the same time period, while satisfaction over future career path improvement ebbed to 44.2% of those polled, from 53.5% in July 2023.

The survey noted that the declines in satisfaction were concentrated among women, those without college degrees and those who earned under $60,000 per year.

The survey found a small increase in those who plan to move to new jobs, with 11.6% of respondents saying in January they planned to find a new employer, versus 10.6% who felt likewise in July 2023.

A series high 4.4% of respondents said they expected to lose their job, versus 3.9% in the survey a year ago, even as a rising number of respondents expecting to get at least one job offer in the next four months rose.

The report also weighed in on the state of workers' so-called reservation wage, which is what prospective new hires say they would need to consider taking a job. That wage has been increasing by leaps and bounds in recent years, amid tight labor markets and high levels of inflation.

By Ethan Wang and Ryan Woo

BEIJING (Reuters) - A Chinese mother went on television to seek justice for her 19-year-old intellectually disabled son after scammers tricked the desperate jobseeker into having breast augmentation surgery, in an incident that has sparked widespread outrage.

The teenager hoping for a job at a cosmetic surgery clinic in the central city of Wuhan was told the procedure would help him earn money, by winning followers through livestreaming.

The clinic even convinced him to borrow 30,000 yuan ($4,180) to pay for the surgery, his mother told a television station last week.

"For the sake of money, one can give up one's humanity," said one of more than 2,600 comments on China's Weibo (NASDAQ:WB) social media platform where posts on the boy's plight have drawn more than 27 million views.

"Worse than beasts!" said another.

The mother managed to get the loan cancelled, with the help of the TV station and lawyers, but the breast surgery had already been done.

Scams such as recruitment for non-existent jobs, false advertising and loan traps are growing in China as the economy falters, with the top legal prosecuting agency saying last year that crooks were targeting more students and fresh graduates.

A record 11.79 million students graduated this summer, as the world's second-largest economy grapples with one crisis after another, from a trade war and the aftermath of COVID-19 to a prolonged property crisis and cautious consumer spending.

A job crisis among the young could test the economic leadership of the ruling Communist Party, which has repeatedly urged people to "listen to the party".

Finding jobs for young people is a top priority, President Xi Jinping said this year, as he expressed concern about their employment prospects.

FALSE PROMISES

Youth unemployment hit a record high of 21.3% in June last year, prompting China to halt publication of the closely watched benchmark, saying students still enrolled should be excluded.

There is no way to track all job seekers among those aged 16 to 24, but a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics said last year that 33 million of them were seeking employment.

"The pressure on employment still exists," Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the statistics bureau, told a press conference on Thursday, after data showed China's overall jobless rate rose to a four-month high in July.

"Key groups still face pressure (in finding work)."

In another scam that made headlines last month, a college student seeking a part-time job in food delivery was persuaded to sign a year-long contract to rent an electric bicycle.

A staffer at a bike rental shop who pretended to be a recruiter for popular food delivery service Meituan told the student that he had to rent a bike before starting the job.

A few weeks later, the student realised his earnings were far below the "tens of thousands" promised by the "recruiter" and he was barely able to scrape together the monthly rental.

"It's hard enough to find a job, and now we need to be careful about scams too," said one Weibo poster.

Authorities say the darkening outlook for jobs has prompted some students to become scammers themselves.

The first 10 months of 2023 saw an annual rise of 68% in the number of those younger than 18 who were prosecuted for phone and internet scams, the prosecuting agency said last November.

The incidents of young graduates with advanced college degrees joining scam syndicates also increased, it added in a report.

The Wuhan teenager's trauma was worsened by having to go under the knife a second time to remove the breast implants, his mother said on television.

"It pains me to see the two scars under my son's chest," she added.

($1=7.1735 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25% following the latest weekly jobless claims and retail sales reports.

Earlier this month, the brokerage raised the odds of a U.S. recession from 15% after the unemployment rate jumped to a three-year high in July, sparking fears of a downturn.

"We have now shaved our probability from 25% to 20%, mainly because the data for July and early August released since August 2 shows no sign of recession," Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said in a note on Saturday.

"Continued expansion would make the U.S. look more similar to other G10 economies, where the Sahm rule has held less than 70% of the time," he added.

Thursday's jobless claims report showed number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to a one-month low in the previous week, while separate data revealed on the day that retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in July.

Hatzius said if the August jobs report seems "reasonably good", he would cut back the U.S. recession probability to 15%.

He maintains the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, but did not rule out a 50 bps cut if the jobs report falls short of expectations.

By Pranoy Krishna

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The Bank of Thailand (BOT) will keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and through Q1 2025 to balance growth with inflation control while assessing the impact of ongoing political instability on the economy, a Reuters poll found.

While inflation, at 0.83% in July, remained below the BOT's target range of 1%-3%, Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said the current interest rate is appropriate and there is no need to cut despite the government's repeated calls to lower it.

With growing political uncertainty following the dismissal of Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, the BOT - previously bickering with Srettha's government over the scale of cash handouts to tackle high household debt - will remain in a wait-and-watch mode to assess the impact on the economy.

Thailand's parliament elected Paetongtarn Shinawatra as its youngest prime minister on Friday, daughter of divisive political heavyweight Thaksin Shinawatra.

All but three of the 27 economists in the Aug. 8-16 Reuters poll expected the BOT to keep its benchmark one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.50% on Aug. 21.

Three economists predicted a 25 basis point cut.

"We are not anticipating any policy rate changes. A lot will depend on the growth outlook. If political calm prevails ... the BOT is likely to keep its policy rate on hold through 2024, before modest rate cuts in mid-2025 when growth is likely to slow," wrote Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.

"However, intensifying political risks in the coming weeks and disruptions in fiscal policy implementation would strengthen the case for a recalibration in monetary policy settings sooner rather than later."

Still, a weak Thai baht, which is down about 2% against the U.S. dollar so far this year, suggests any move before the U.S. Federal Reserve's expected policy easing in September will likely be inflationary.

"We do not expect the BOT to ease aggressively or make a preemptive rate cut ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve. By easing along with the Fed, the BOT can avoid putting additional downward pressure on the baht," wrote Eugene Tan, associate economist at Moody's (NYSE:MCO) Analytics.

Median forecasts showed interest rates will remain steady at 2.50% through the first quarter of 2025 before a 25 basis-point cut to 2.25% in Q2, whereas a July survey had predicted the first cut would occur in the first three months of 2025.

A much smaller sample of economists who provided forecasts until end 2025 expected rates to decrease by 50 basis points to 2.00%.

However, a few economists in the poll said the ongoing political upheaval is likely to pose significant risks to that outlook, and that policy easing could occur sooner than anticipated.

"The central bank really doesn't have much reason to adjust its policy stance. However, given the situation we will monitor risks to that call ... especially if political uncertainty prolongs and the policy continuity that we expect does not materialize," said Lavanya Venkateswaran, senior ASEAN economist at OCBC.

Venkateswaran expects no change in rates until end-2025.

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was struggling to make headway against its peers on Monday, though it traded in a tight range as investors awaited fresh catalysts this week that could offer clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting and a speech from Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole are likely to be the main drivers of currency movement this week, which will also see inflation data from Canada and Japan alongside Purchasing Managers' Index readings across the U.S., euro zone and UK.

The euro last bought $1.1026 while sterling rose to a one-month high of $1.2950 in an otherwise muted start to the Asian trading session, as bets for an imminent start to the Fed's easing cycle pressured the dollar.

Against a basket of currencies, the greenback fell 0.06% to 102.40.

Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with a 24.5% chance of a 50 bp move. Futures point to over 90 bps worth of easing by year-end.

"Markets will be laser focused to what Powell has to say at the end of this week, and on that, I think it will be a great opportunity for Powell to either endorse or push back market pricing," said currency strategist Carol Kong at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) (CBA).

"I think he'll at least greenlight a rate cut at the September meeting. If anything, I think he'll try to retain optionality because we do have some more data before the next meeting."

CFinancial markets had a turbulent start to August after a slew of softer-than-expected U.S. economic data - in particular, a weak jobs report for July triggered severe volatility as investors feared the world's largest economy was headed for a recession and that the Fed was being slow in easing rates.

With those worries now moderating, traditional safe haven assets such as the yen - which received a boost from a flight to safety - have given up some of their early August gains.

The Japanese currency was last 0.2% lower at 147.93 a dollar, having fallen some 4% from a seven-month high at the start of the month.

Japanese investment data on Friday confirmed that after a bout of turmoil, investors were back to betting on the Bank of Japan going slow on rate rises and on the yen staying cheap.

"Given financial markets have calmed down and volatility has eased, I think it is possible that dollar/yen can recover more, perhaps to 150, as volatility continues to move back lower," said CBA's Kong.

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.16% to $0.6062, while the Australian dollar hit a one-month high of $0.66865.

The Aussie has been drawing support from a still-hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia after Governor Michele Bullock on Friday said it was premature to be thinking about rate cuts.

Her comments came just days after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered its first rate cut in over four years.

Investing.com -- The future trajectory of U.S. interest rates could become clearer this week when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole retreat. Before then, the Democratic National Convention gets underway, global PMI data will shed light on economic strength and energy markets will likely remain volatile amid elevated geopolitical tensions. Here's your look at what's happening in markets for the week ahead.

1. Jackson Hole

Fed Chair Jay Powell is due to deliver the keynote address at the central bank’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday at 10:00am ET (14:00GMT).

Markets will be laser focused on what he signals about the pace and timing of rate cuts over the coming months.

Hopes for an economic soft landing are once again propelling U.S. stocks higher, as recent positive data relieved worries over the prospect of a recession after a growth scare triggered a brutal selloff earlier this month.

Most market participants believe the Fed will cut rates at its upcoming September meeting, with the main debate being over the size of the cut - a quarter percentage point or a half point.

2. U.S. data

The Fed is to publish what will be closely watched minutes of its July meeting on Wednesday. The Fed left the door open to a September rate cut last month with Powell acknowledging progress on inflation.

Also Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is slated to publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to the level of nonfarm payrolls for March 2024.

On Thursday the weekly report on initial jobless claims will be released.

Several Fed officials are also due to make appearances during the week including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.

3. Democratic Convention

The U.S. presidential race is set to heat up as Democrats aim to boost Vice President Kamala Harris' candidacy during the party's convention in Chicago, starting Monday. Over the four-day event, prominent Democratic figures are scheduled to deliver speeches aimed at consolidating support for Harris.

Harris, who entered the race following President Joe Biden's decision to step down, has energized the Democratic base and narrowed the gap with Republican candidate Donald Trump in some opinion polls. She has even surpassed Trump in several betting markets ahead of the November 5 election.

As the race tightens, investors are keen to gain clarity on Harris' policy positions. Notably, Harris has underscored her commitment to preserving Federal Reserve independence, a stance that sharply contrasts with the views of her Republican rival, former President Trump.

4. PMI data

Purchasing managers' indexes deliver a real-time snapshot of economic activity and - with most of them out on Thursday - will provide an important insight into the outlook for global growth.

July's PMIs suggested an economic slowdown combined with persistent inflation, showing why central banks are in a dilemma.

U.S. manufacturing activity weakened, and German numbers were surprisingly dour, indicating that the Eurozone’s largest economy is contracting. But manufacturers' input prices in advanced economies hit an 18-month high.

Inflation will dictate the pace and depth of future rate cuts. A repeat of July's dour PMI data might mean monetary easing happens more slowly than markets would like.

5. Energy markets

Global energy markets have been experiencing volatility amid a mix of risk factors, with no immediate relief in sight. Recent concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East have driven international crude oil prices above $80 a barrel, reflecting fears over potential supply disruptions from the region.

Simultaneously, uncertainties regarding oil demand, particularly from China, are capping further gains in crude prices.

European wholesale gas prices have also shown significant fluctuations, exacerbated by the potential disruption of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine. The ongoing conflict near the Russian town of Sudzha, a key transit point for gas flowing into Ukraine, has raised concerns about a possible halt in gas deliveries before the expiration of a five-year agreement with Gazprom.

--Reuters contributed to this report

By Danial Azhar and Rozanna Latiff

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) -Malaysia's economy expanded at its fastest rate in 18 months in the second quarter helped by stronger household spending, exports and investment, with the central bank forecasting full-year growth to come in near the upper end of its forecast range.

Gross domestic product grew 5.9% in the April-to-June period, data showed on Friday, accelerating from 4.2% in the first quarter and surpassing analysts' and early government estimates for a 5.8% rise.

Growth in the period was the quickest since the fourth quarter of 2022, when the economy expanded 7.4%.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, GDP rose 2.9%, compared with a 1.5% rise in the January-to-March period, data from Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) and the Statistics Department showed.

Full-year 2024 growth was expected to come in at the upper end of the central bank's forecast of 4%-5%, driven by stronger domestic and external demand, BNM Governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour said.

"Household spending will remain the anchor of growth for the rest of this year, with continued expansion in employment and income as well as larger policy support and...strong investment activities," he said.

In 2023, the economy had expanded less than expected, rising 3.7% amid weak global demand.

The ringgit currency is also expected to receive additional support in the coming months amid narrowing interest rate differentials between the United States and Malaysia, the governor said.

The ringgit has recovered from a 26-year-low against the U.S. dollar struck in February, and has now gained 3.3% so far this year.

Last month, the central bank held its key interest rate steady at 3.00%. It said on Friday that inflation would remain manageable even as it trended higher following diesel subsidy cuts in June.

Headline and core inflation averaged 1.8% in the first half of 2024, BNM said. It projects headline inflation will range between 2% and 3.5% for the year.

Analysts expect BNM to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year, flagging the risk of higher inflation as Malaysia continues to pursue further subsidy cuts. The government has plans to adjust subsidies for RON95 fuel but has not yet said when the proposal will be implemented.

"We believe BNM will continue to remain vigilant in their conduct of monetary policy especially on the price front. They have maintained their inflation forecasts...which indicates some degree of uncertainties over the prospect of the country's inflation," Bank Muamalat Malaysia chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said.

Capital Economics said in a note that despite a better-than-expected performance, it still expected Malaysia to face a slowdown ahead amid declining commodity prices, inflation risks and a fading boost from tourist arrivals.

(Reuters) - Foreign investors heavily bought into Japanese stocks in the week to Aug. 10, encouraged by policymakers' signals to stabilize the market following recent turmoil which had sent shares into their biggest one-day plunge since 1987.

Cross-border investors bought a net 521.9 billion yen ($3.51 billion) of Japanese shares in the week, reversing three consecutive weeks of net selling, according to finance ministry data.

Last week, Japanese policymakers signalled action to prevent further declines in the stock market, while the Bank of Japan indicated it would keep rates steady amid market instability, following a historic 12.4% drop in the Nikkei share average on Aug. 5 on fears of a recession in the U.S. and the unwinding of carry trades funding with cheap yen.

But those worries quickly faded and the Nikkei share average has surged over 20% since reaching a nine-month low of 31,156.12 on Aug. 5.

Foreigners also reversed an eight-week Japan bond selling trend last week, becoming net buyers. They acquired a net 1.44 trillion yen in long-term bonds, the largest amount since May 11, and a net 561.8 billion yen in short-term securities.

Japanese investors bought 1.54 trillion yen worth of long-term overseas bonds last week, marking the largest weekly net purchase in 12 weeks, and also acquired short-term instruments totalling a net 453.5 billion yen.

Japanese investors, however, shed foreign shares worth a net 328.1 billion yen after three weeks of net purchases in a row.

($1 = 148.9000 yen)

By Makailah Gause

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The average rate on the popular U.S. 30-year mortgage rate was little changed near the lowest level in over a year this week, as signs of cooling inflation have held down the Treasury bond yields used in setting home loan costs.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% during the week ending August 15, up fractionally from 6.47% in the prior week, the lowest since May 2023, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday.

“In 2023, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage nearly hit 8 percent, slamming the brakes on the housing market," Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said in a statement.

"Now, the 30-year fixed-rate hovers around 6.5 percent and will likely trend down in the coming months as inflation continues to slow. Lower rates are good news for potential buyers and sellers alike.”

It averaged 7.09% during the same period a year ago.

Mortgage applications increased by nearly 17 percent last week as mortgage rates continued to fall, Mortgage Bankers Association data showed on Wednesday, enticing homeowners who had bought with high-rate mortgages in the last year to rush to refinance those loans.

"The significant increase was led by a 35 percent jump in refinances and also included a 3 percent increase in purchase applications. While the refinances remain strong, we expect that the purchase market will continue to gain momentum as mortgage rates continue to fall,” MBA Chief Executive Bob Broeksmit said in a statement.

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asia shares were headed for a weekly gain on Friday and Japan's benchmark Nikkei was poised for its best week in over four years as upbeat risk sentiment spilled over from Wall Street, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields held broadly steady.

Last week's market turmoil was replaced by calmer conditions this week after a raft of U.S. economic data allayed recession fears in the world's largest economy and pushed back against expectations for aggressive U.S. rate cuts.

"Our assessment is that the market fallout from the weak early August U.S. data was disproportionate and in large part reflected the rapid unwind of crowded positions in some markets," said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

"While the risk of a recession in the U.S. has increased a little, there are few signs of a more substantial crisis brewing."

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.34% in early trade and was set to rise 1.3% for the week, while U.S. futures extended gains following a strong overnight cash session on Wall Street.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.09%, while Nasdaq futures added 0.17%.

Strong U.S. retail sales data and low weekly jobless claims were the latest shot in the arm for the positive risk mood, following a benign inflation report earlier this week that reaffirmed bets for imminent Fed rate cuts, but likely at a measured pace.

Markets are now pricing in just a 25% chance of a 50-basis-point cut from the Federal Reserve next month, down from 55% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

"The totality of data tells us disinflation is continuing and the Fed is almost certain to cut rates in September by 25bps," said David Chao, Invesco's global market strategist for Asia Pacific ex-Japan.

"But I do believe that the July inflation report diminishes the chances of a super-size cut, though this was never in the cards."

Japan's Nikkei got off to a strong start and jumped 2.7%.

The Nikkei, which suffered heavy losses last week exacerbated by the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, was poised for a weekly gain of 7.6%, its best performance since April 2020.

Friday's gains were in part helped by a weaker yen which last stood at 149.08 per dollar, languishing near a two-week low of 149.40 hit in the previous session and some distance away from last week's seven-month peak.

The Swiss franc, which also surged last week on the back of a flight to safety, was little changed at 0.8716 per dollar and looked set to lose 0.7% for the week.

In other currencies, the euro struggled to break above the $1.10 level against a firmer dollar, which was buoyed by elevated U.S. Treasury yields.

The two-year yield hovered near an over one-week high and last stood at 4.0846%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied at 3.9112%. [US/]

In commodities, oil prices edged lower on Friday, though were set for a weekly gain as the upbeat U.S. economic data eased investor worries about a potential recession in the top oil consuming nation.

Brent crude futures dipped 0.19% to $80.88 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased 0.28% to $77.94 a barrel. Still, the two were eyeing a weekly gain of more than 1%. [O/R]

Spot gold ticked up 0.07% to $2,457.79 an ounce. [GOL/]