By Forrest Crellin, Nora Buli and Nina Chestney

PARIS/OSLO/LONDON (Reuters) - Europe's struggling industries are bracing for a new gas price shock over the coming winter months, as colder weather depletes stocks, competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas intensifies, and the prospect of reduced Russian supplies looms.

Since the energy crisis of 2022, when gas prices peaked at nearly 350 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), dozens of firms across Europe have closed factories and cut activity and jobs as high gas prices undermined their competitiveness.

Many are maintaining reduced demand and lower manufacturing activity, with negative implications for Europe's sluggish growth.

European Union gas demand is 17% below the five-year average observed during pre-pandemic years.

At the same time, gas prices are at their highest level in over a year and analysts predict they will rise further.

"The concern is that we are laying our guard down because energy prices are lower now than what we saw in 2022," Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Oslo-listed Yara, a fertiliser company, told Reuters in October.

"It’s important to remind ourselves that we’re still at much higher levels than other key regions like the U.S., the Middle East, and Russia.”

Nervousness about the expiry at the end of the year of a Russian transit deal to supply gas to Europe via Ukraine has helped to drive buying.

Francisco Blanch, the head of commodity and derivatives research at Bank of America, said it could push EU gas prices as high as 70 euros/MWh next year from nearly 50 euros/MWh now.

That compares with average EU gas prices of 17.58 euros/MWh over five years before the pandemic, LSEG data showed.

EU-wide gas inventories are 85% full, some 10 percentage points lower than a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.

That makes the current winter already feel uncomfortable, said Barbara Lambrecht, an analyst at Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG), as cold snaps would cause storage levels to fall faster than during the last two relatively mild winters.

To try to safeguard supplies, the European Commission last week increased its storage filling target, potentially adding to the upward pressure on prices.

SHRINKING INDUSTRIES

Dozens of factories in Europe closed and nearly a million manufacturing jobs were lost over the last four years, Bernstein data showed.

In a report on Europe's competitiveness in September, former ECB chief Mario Draghi said the loss of relatively cheap Russian gas following the 2022 outbreak of war in Ukraine had a "huge cost" to the economy and that fossil fuels would be needed at least for the remainder of the decade.

"Even though energy prices have fallen considerably from their peaks, EU companies still face electricity prices that are 2-3 times those in the United States. Natural gas prices paid are 4-5 times higher," the report said.

Current EU prices are nearly five times higher than U.S. gas, which trades at $3.095/mmBtu, equivalent to 10.02 euros/MWh.

A survey by Germany's chambers of commerce (DIHK) in August found that high energy prices and a lack of reliable energy supplies were hindering industrial production and prompting some German firms to consider relocating abroad.

Yara's CEO also told Reuters the company was "shifting our energy exposure away from Europe".

German industry lobby group, the BDI, has cited high energy prices as among the factors that threaten the competitiveness of Europe's biggest economy.

"The risk of de-industrialisation due to the silent migration and abandonment of many small and medium-sized enterprises in particular is constantly increasing," BDI President Siegfried Russwurm, who also sits on the board at German industrial conglomerate Thyssenkrupp (ETR:TKAG), said in September.

In France, industries expect to operate at 70-80% of capacity this winter due to high energy prices, especially in the chemical sector, Nicolas de Warren, president of French industrial lobby group Uniden, told Reuters.

"With industry still in the dumps, there is no reason to believe gas demand from that sector will stage a comeback this year," said analysts at Rabobank, adding that some increase in demand was possible from the heating sector.

EU's current storage levels, meanwhile, are some 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) lower than last year in absolute terms and the difference will be covered mainly by imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Helge Haugane, the head of gas and power trading at Norway's Equinor, EU's biggest gas supplier, said.

That will come at a price as competition intensifies for available supplies.

Although the European Union has avoided imposing sanctions on Russian gas, which some members rely on heavily, it has restricted Russian LNG deliveries.

The European Parliament voted in April to pass rules allowing European governments to ban Russian LNG imports by preventing Russian firms from booking gas infrastructure capacity.

That could increase storage withdrawals and push the EU to compete harder with Asia for U.S. and Middle Eastern LNG.

Europe imported 11.3 bcm, or around 170 cargoes, of LNG in November, mainly from the United States and the Middle East, according to LSEG data.

By Sinead Cruise and Lawrence White

LONDON (Reuters) - President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House is seen fuelling a dealmaking revival that could bolster investment banking income to $316 billion globally next year, a jump of about 5.7% on 2024, data seen by Reuters shows.

M&A bankers are forecast to rake in about $27.6 billion in fees, according to previously unreported figures from analytics and insight provider Coalition Greenwich, in what could be their second-best year in at least two decades.

Global investment banking income has only topped $300 billion five times in the last 20 years, the data shows, with earnings power in recent years stifled by the pandemic, inflation and global political unease.

Trump's pro-business leanings should help an already thriving U.S. economy, which could in turn encourage greater volumes of cross-border dealmaking and investment from European firms chasing growth, bankers said.

"I know it's that time of year where bankers love to be bullish, but we actually do think that the current climate – political clarity and macro stability - will help drive M&A," Richard King, head of corporate banking, EMEA, at Bank of America said.

"There's a lot of pent up demand that will likely come through in 2025," he said, pointing to private equity as well as acquisitive trade buyers across a range of sectors including healthcare, tech and energy.

Trump's administration could be particularly conducive to M&A because he is seen as likely to wave more deals through that had been blocked under the previous administration over competition or U.S. strategic importance concerns, bankers said.

While rainmakers are getting busier, bankers managing debt sales for companies and governments could also see a jump in activity, bringing in as much as $49 billion, a new record, according to Coalition.

Revenue from the trading of securities -- the biggest contributor to investment bank income -- forecast at $220 billion for 2025 would be the highest since 2022.

Credit and emerging markets macro-related products are likely to see the biggest jump on 2024 figures next year, with a 6% increase each while trading in interest rate-related products could shrink as much as 3.5%.

"We have healthy corporate balance sheets but we have a rate environment that has increased cost of capital...so businesses cannot be lazy," said Taylor Wright, co-head of global banking at Barclays (LON:BARC), predicting private equity firms will be active as both buyers and sellers of businesses.

"Geopolitical risk, in our view, is the wild card. It's hard to plan for that but absent that, we see a lot of factors that suggest that the next 12 to 24 months should be very good for investment banking."

RETURN OF THE FAT CATS?

With revenue on the increase, banker payouts look destined to follow suit, although bonuses will remain below bumper 2021 levels for now.

New York-based pay consultancy Johnson Associates said last month it expected banker salaries to rise in almost every business unit, with the exception of real estate investing.

Headhunters are also reporting new hiring mandates from some banks following Trump's re-election, and a focus on adding staff in the first quarter, traditionally a time when most banks look to reduce headcount.

Hiring has increased across securities trading and from junior through to senior positions, said Natalie Nicolaou, Senior Manager, Distribution & Front Office, at Robert Walters UK, told Reuters.

(Reporing by Sinead Cruise and Lawrence White; Editing by Alexandra Hudson (NYSE:HUD))

Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks fell on Friday ahead of key U.S. jobs data, mirroring overnight losses on Wall Street, while South Korean shares plunged amid an ongoing political crisis.

All three major U.S. stock indexes ended lower on Thursday, after hitting record high close in the precious session. U.S. Index futures were slightly lower in Asia hours on Friday.

Focus was on key U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, due later in the day, for more clarity on the interest rates outlook. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates in December, but its long-term plans for easing are uncertain.

S.Korean shares pressured by political jitters

South Korea's KOSPI index slumped as much as 1.6% on Friday, after dropping nearly 1% in the previous session. The index saw increased volatility and sharp falls this week after country's President Yoon Suk-Yeol abruptly revoked an imposition of martial law on Wednesday amid public and political backlash.

The leader of South Korea's ruling party Han Dong-hoon said on Friday that the president must be removed from power to protect the nation, citing the attempt to impose martial law.

Other regional markets, including the Philippine's PSEi Composite, and Singapore's FTSE Straits Times Singapore index dropped 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.9%, and TOPIX declined 0.7%, while Malaysia's FTSE Malaysia KLCI index and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 were down 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

In contrast, Chinese stocks surged ahead on stimulus hopes ahead of a key Chinese economic meeting next week. The Shanghai Composite index jumped 0.9%, while the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index climbed 1.1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged 1.2%.

RBI rate decision in focus

Nifty 50 Futures indicated that Nifty 50 will open slightly lower. Investors were cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India interest rate decision, due later in the day.

Markets are widely expecting the central bank to leave its key repo rate unchanged at 6.50% as country's recent inflation print in October surged past the central bank's tolerance ceiling of 6%.

However, some market participants are still anticipating a 25 basis points cut on India's recent economic growth reading, which slumped to a seven-quarter low in the September quarter. The bets for a cut are also stemming from a depreciation in the Indian rupee.

"India is likely to remain the fastest-growing country in the region in 2025, although that growth will be weaker than in 2024. Inflation should remain well within the central bank’s target, and the local currency should outperform" ING analysts wrote in a recent note.

Asian markets brace for China data deluge next week

Focus next week will be squarely on China's annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) for more cues on stimulus measures and the outlook for Asia's largest economy.

China is also set to release its November CPI inflation data on Tuesday, and its trade data on Wednesday.

India will release its CPI inflation for November next week, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide on its interest rates on Tuesday.

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures fell slightly on Thursday evening after Wall Street ended its run of record highs as investors hunkered down before key nonfarm payrolls data for November.

Higher-than-expected jobless claims data also did little to quell speculation that the labor market recovered sharply in November, with any resilience in jobs heralding a slower pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

S&P 500 Futures fell 0.1% to 6,081.75 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.2% to 21,434.575 points by 18:08 ET (23:08 GMT). Dow Jones Futures fell 0.1% to 44,836.0 points. 

Nonfarm payrolls awaited for more rate cues 

Focus was now squarely on nonfarm payrolls data for November, due on Friday. 

The reading is expected to show the labor market recovered sharply from weather-related disruptions in October, with payrolls growth forecast at 202,000, compared to 12,000 in the prior month.

Strength in the labor market is expected to give the Federal Reserve more headroom to cut interest rates later. A slew of Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, said strength in the economy allowed the bank to be more cautious when considering future easing.

Markets largely maintained their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed later in December. But doubts have emerged about future easing, especially as investors also looked to inflationary policies under President-elect Donald Trump. 

Wall St cools after record-high run 

Wall Street indexes fell on Thursday, facing some profit-taking after clocking a series of record highs this week. 

Technology stocks- which were a key driver of Wall Street’s recent rally, while economically sensitive sectors such as energy, financials and industrials lost ground.

Crypto stocks fell tracking Bitcoin after the world’s biggest cryptocurrency tumbled from record highs above the coveted $100,000 level, as it was slapped with heavy profit-taking. 

The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 6,075.11 points, while the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.2% to 19.702.73 points on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 44,765.71 points, with all three indexes falling from record highs.

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's base salary grew at a 32-year-high pace in October, government data showed on Friday, boosting real wages after two months of decreases and offering statistical support for the prospects of a central bank rate hike this month.

The Bank of Japan must scrutinise various data at its Dec. 18-19 rate review, dovish board member Toyoaki Nakamura said on Thursday, as the market remains split about the timing of Japan's next interest rate hike between December and January.

Base salary, or regular pay, rose 2.7% in October, marking the fastest increase since November 1992, labour ministry data showed, as more companies set higher salaries after major firms agreed to an average 5.1% raise at the spring wage talks.

Overtime pay, a barometer of business strength, rebounded to 1.4% growth from a revised 0.9% decrease in the previous month.

Combined, nominal wages, or a worker's average total cash earnings, grew 2.6% to 293,401 yen ($1,955) in October.

The inflation rate the ministry uses for wage calculation, which excludes owners' equivalent rent, was also at 2.6%, its slowest in nine months.

That led the inflation-adjusted real wages, a key indicator of consumers' purchasing power, to stay unchanged in October from a year before, against a revised 0.4% drop in September and 0.8% decline in August.

Opposition lawmakers had pressed the government and the BOJ to aim for positive real wage growth after the ruling bloc lost its lower house majority at the October general election.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda last week told the Nikkei newspaper in an interview that the timing of the next interest rate hike was "approaching" as the economy was moving in line with the central bank's forecasts.

By Gaurav Dogra

(Reuters) - Asian stocks were under selling pressure from foreign investors for a second consecutive month in November amid worries over potential U.S. tariff hikes on regional exports under the incoming Donald Trump administration next year.

Foreigners net withdrew $15.88 billion out of equity markets in Taiwan, South Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, following a net $15.38 billion worth of sales in the prior month, LSEG data showed. It was their largest monthly net selling since June 2022.

"What we have seen in November is a reaction to Trump 2.0, where there are concerns that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist stance could mean a follow-through of his tariff threats, which may negatively impact Asian export-driven economies," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

Last month, Trump pledged to impose significant tariffs on the United States' three largest trading partners, including China, a move that could impact regional exports heavily reliant on strong supply chains with China.

Chetan Seth, an analyst at Nomura, highlighted a bleak outlook for Asian stocks into 2025, attributing the pessimism to factors including impending tariffs, trade tensions, a potentially stronger USD, rising bond yields and less supportive monetary policies, compounded by China's delay in implementing anticipated stimulus measures.

Taiwanese stocks witnessed net foreign outflows of $8.41 billion in November, the biggest since April 2022. South Korean stocks also lost a hefty $3.21 billion, marking a fourth successive month of capital outflows.

A surge in the dollar after Trump's victory in the Nov. 5 election also dampened investor sentiment, as the dollar index reached 108.09, its highest level since Nov. 11, 2022.

Foreign investors net sold Indian stocks worth $2.56 billion after about $11.2 billion worth of net selling in October.

Indonesian, Vietnam and Thai shares also saw foreign outflows worth $1.06 billion, $461 million and $395 million, respectively.

"Looking ahead, risk remains with the tail scenarios where trade disruptions spill over more broadly," said Minyue Liu, a senior investment specialist at BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) Asset Management.

"However, positive factors such as US Fed’s and ECB’s rate cut, earnings recovery and resilient performance across EM assets, plus reasonable valuation, should help to attract some foreign flows into the Asia ex-Japan and the broader Emerging Market universe."

Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks rose on Thursday tracking a third consecutive record-high close on Wall Street amid a tech share rally, while South Korean equities extended declines on fears of a potential political crisis.

All three major U.S. stock indexes ended at record highs overnight as technology shares rallied after strong earnings from Salesforce (NYSE:CRM). U.S. futures were little changed on Thursday.

Regional investors also drew some comfort from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's address at a New York Times event. Powell flagged strength in the U.S. economy and did not downplay expectations for a December rate cut, although he did flag a more cautious approach to future easing.

South Korean shares extend losses after martial law fiasco

South Korea's KOSPI index fell 0.3%, after closing 1.3% lower a day earlier when President Yoon Suk-Yeol tried to impose martial law.

President Yoon declared martial law on Tuesday in an effort to counter “anti-state forces” among his political opponents, but revoked the measure within hours after he faced immediate backlash, including parliamentary rejection and public protests. This led to demands for Yoon's impeachment by the country's legislators.

South Korea's Finance Ministry on Thursday announced a 40 trillion won ($28.35 billion) market stabilization fund after Yoon's declaration disrupted markets. The Bank of Korea may buy bonds and expand repo operations, with authorities ready to act under contingency plans if necessary.

Other data showed that South Korea's economy grew just by 0.1% in the third quarter, unchanged from advance estimates issued earlier.

This comes as country already faces sharp depreciation in its assets, including its stocks and currencies. The KOSPI has fallen nearly 7% this year, while the won has declined about 9% against the U.S. dollar. South Korea recently celebrated its inclusion into the FTSE Russell's World Government Bond Index.

Concerns over a potential spillover in South Korea's political turmoil kept sentiment towards broader Asian markets cautious.

Asia stocks drift higher, but sentiment cautious

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% on Thursday, while TOPIX was up 0.2%. Data on Wednesday showed that country's service activity swung back to growth in November on improving demand.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4% after data showed that country's trade balance rebounded in October on improved commodity demand, especially in top importer China.

China's Shanghai Composite index was slightly higher, while the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index was largely unchanged. 

Morgan Stanley said foreign investment in Chinese equities ended a brief two-month period of net inflows in November, amid caution over increased U.S. trade tariffs.

India's Nifty 50 Futures indicated a positive open. Focus this week will be on the Reserve Bank of India (NS:BOI)'s interest rate decision on Friday.

Bucking the regional trend, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell over 1%, with Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) (HK:9988) shares falling over 2% and EV maker BYD Co (HK:1211) sliding about 3%, as a new round of US-China export curbs this week rattled investors.

Elsewhere, Philippine's PSEi Composite index edged 0.2% lower, while Indonesia's Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index was 0.3% lower.

Investors remain on edge as Asia faces heightened geopolitical risks, including the specter of U.S. trade tariffs under incoming President Donald Trump’s administration.

Focus this week is on key nonfarm paryrolls data in U.S. for more clarity on Fed's interest rate outlook.

By Joyce Lee and Hyunjoo Jin

SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea's parliament introduced a motion on Thursday to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over a botched attempt to impose martial law, while the defence minister blamed for advising the move and ordering troops to the parliament resigned.

Lawmakers from the opposition Democratic Party planned to put up a vote in parliament to impeach Yoon at around 7 p.m. (1000 GMT) on Saturday, a party spokesperson told reporters.

Yoon's ruling People Power Party is divided over the crisis but said it would oppose impeachment with two years left in Yoon's five-year term.

"The Yoon Suk Yeol regime's declaration of emergency martial law caused great confusion and fear among our people," Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Seung-won told a session of South Korea's National Assembly held in the early hours of Thursday.

The Democratic Party needs at least eight of the 108 ruling-party lawmakers to back the bill for it to pass with a two-thirds majority of the 300-seat parliament.

Fighting for his political future, Yoon accepted the resignation of Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun on Thursday and nominated his ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Choi Byung-hyuk, as a replacement, Yoon's office said.

Kim had recommended Yoon declare martial law late on Tuesday, according to a senior military official and the filing to impeach Yoon by opposition members. Kim also ordered the deployment of troops to the parliament, Vice-Defence Minister Kim Seon-ho said, adding he was unaware of the martial law order until Yoon declared it.

"I have fundamentally opposed the mobilisation of military forces under martial law and have expressed negative opinions about it," he told a parliament hearing on Thursday, apologising and taking responsibility for failing to prevent it.

The declaration of martial law attempted to ban political activity and censor the media in Asia's fourth-largest economy and a key U.S. ally. It sparked outrage in the streets and concern among its international allies.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Japan's "security situation may be fundamentally changed" in light of the instability in Seoul and North Korea's rising military assertiveness.

"What will happen to South Korea? There appears to be a great deal of domestic criticism and opposition," he told parliament on Thursday, adding that Yoon's efforts to improve relations with Tokyo "must never be undermined”.

There has been no reaction yet from North Korea to the drama in the South.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Reuters on Wednesday the United States had not been made aware in advance of Yoon's declaration, while his deputy, Kurt Campbell, said Yoon had badly misjudged it. 

Yoon had been embraced by leaders in the West as a partner in the U.S.-led effort to unify democracies against growing authoritarianism in China, Russia and elsewhere.

But he caused unease among South Koreans by branding his critics as "communist totalitarian and anti-state forces". In November, he denied wrongdoing in response to influence-peddling allegations against him and his wife and he has taken a hard line against labour unions.

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures moved little on Wednesday evening, steadying after a record-high session on Wall Street amid persistent gains in the technology sector.

Investors were also encouraged by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell flagging strength in the U.S. economy, which spurred flows into more economically sensitive sectors. 

S&P 500 Futures fell slightly to 6,095.50 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.1% to 21,515.50 points by 18:53 ET (23:53 GMT). Dow Jones Futures steadied at 45,099.0 points. 

Powell flags strength in the economy; Payrolls awaited 

Powell said the economy was in a better place than as it appeared in September when the Fed began cutting interest rates, allowing the Fed to be more cautious in considering further easing.

Speaking at a New York Times (NYSE:NYT) event, Powell also flagged progress towards bringing down inflation, although his comments likely indicated support for a slower pace of rate cuts.

His comments are likely his last public statements before the Fed meets on December 17 and 18, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. 

But markets are uncertain over the longer term outlook, especially given that resilience in the U.S. economy could keep inflation sticky. President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies are also expected to underpin inflation in the long term.

Still, investors latched on to the prospect of a stronger economy, sparking broad-based gains across Wall Street. Investors were also relieved by Powell not downplaying the prospect of a December cut.

Focus is now on upcoming nonfarm payrolls data for November, due on Friday. The reading is expected to show resilience in the labor market and is likely to factor into the outlook for U.S. interest rates. 

Tech gains put Wall St at record highs

Wall Street indexes finished at record highs on Wednesday amid a persistent rally in major technology stocks. Positive earnings from Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM)- which surged 11%- were a key driver of gains, as was a sustained rally in market darling NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA). 

The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a record high of 6,086.49 points, while the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.3% to a peak of 19,732.87 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 0.7% at a record high of 45,014.04 points. 

Wall Street has been on a tear since Trump’s election victory in early-November, with analysts expecting more gains as 2024 draws to a close.

By Elizabeth Pineau and Michel Rose

PARIS (Reuters) -French lawmakers passed a no-confidence vote against the government on Wednesday, throwing the European Union's second-biggest economic power deeper into a crisis that threatens its capacity to legislate and tame a massive budget deficit.

Far-right and left-wing lawmakers joined forces to back a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, with a majority 331 votes in support of the motion.

Barnier now has to tender his resignation and that of his government to President Emmanuel Macron, making his minority government's three-month tenure the shortest lived in France's Fifth Republic beginning in 1958. He is expected to do so on Thursday morning, French media reported.

The hard left and far right punished Barnier for using special constitutional powers to adopt part of an unpopular budget without a final vote in parliament, where it lacked majority support. The draft budget had sought 60 billion euros ($63.07 billion) in savings in a drive to shrink a gaping deficit.

"This (deficit) reality will not disappear by the magic of a motion of censure," Barnier told lawmakers ahead of the vote, adding the budget deficit would come back to haunt whichever government comes next.

No French government had lost a confidence vote since Georges Pompidou's in 1962. Macron ushered in the crisis by calling a snap election in June that delivered a polarised parliament.

With its president diminished, France now risks ending the year without a stable government or a 2025 budget, although the constitution allows special measures that would avert a U.S.-style government shutdown.