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BOJ deputy governor plays down chance of near-term rate hike, yen slumps

PANAMA CITY (Reuters) - Panama's government passed two decrees on Tuesday allowing the economy ministry to seek a cumulative $9 billion in financing, Panama's council of ministers said in a statement.


The first decree permits the issuance of treasury notes on the local market for up to $6 billion, with maturities between two and 10 years.


The second allows the economy ministry to subscribe to financing schemes with local and international institutions for up to $3 billion.


By Leika Kihara


HAKODATE, Japan (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan's influential deputy governor said on Wednesday the central bank won't hike interest rates when markets are unstable, playing down the chance of a near-term hike in borrowing costs.


The remarks by Shinichi Uchida, which contrasted with Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish comments made last week when the BOJ unexpectedly raised interest rates, boosted Japan's Nikkei share average and sent the yen


Uchida said the intense market volatility in the past week could "obviously" change the BOJ's rate hike path if it affects the central bank's economic and price projections and the likelihood of Japan durably achieving its 2% inflation target.


"As we're seeing sharp volatility in domestic and overseas financial markets, it's necessary to maintain current levels of monetary easing for the time being," Uchida said in a speech to business leaders in the northern Japanese city of Hakodate.


The recent strengthening of the yen would affect the BOJ's policy decision-making because it reduces upward pressure on import prices, and therefore overall inflation, Uchida said.


Stock market volatility would also influence its decisions by affecting corporate activity and consumption, he added.


"Unlike U.S. and European central banks, we're not in a situation where we would end up being behind the curve unless we hike interest rates at a set pace," Uchida said.


"We won't raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable," Uchida said.


The dollar surged to a session high of 147.50 yen and was last up 1.6% at 146.59 after Uchida's remarks. The Nikkei average climbed 3%, while the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield fell 1 basis point to 0.875%.


"The BOJ hiked interest rates because it didn't like the weak yen. Now, it appears to be suggesting a pause in rate hikes because it doesn't like stocks falling," said Takuya Kanda, an analyst at Gaitame.com Research Institute.


"If the BOJ is watching markets so much in setting policy, there's a chance it won't be able to raise rates that much."


U.S. OUTLOOK KEY


Last week, the BOJ raised interest rates to levels unseen in 15 years and unveiled a detailed plan to slow its massive bond buying, taking another step towards phasing out a decade of huge stimulus.


Governor Ueda said the BOJ will keep raising rates if the economy and prices move in line with its projection, signalling the chance of steady hikes in coming years.


The hawkish remarks, as well as weak U.S. labour data that stoked fears of recession in the world's largest economy, helped contribute to a global market rout that sent the yen soaring and Japan's Nikkei average plunging on Monday.


Markets have whipsawed since then, partly as traders reassessed the timing and pace of future BOJ rate hikes.


While stressing the need to keep monetary policy loose for the time being, Uchida said Japan's economy was likely to keep recovering with the United States seen achieving a soft landing.


"Uchida's comments are clearly dovish. Unless market sentiment recovers rapidly, the chance of the BOJ hiking rates either in September or October is low," said Toru Suehiro, an economist at Daiwa Securities.


"But if U.S. recession fears subside around year-end, the BOJ will likely raise rates in December," he said.

2024-08-07 15:04:05
Panama govt opens door for financing for up to $9 billion

PANAMA CITY (Reuters) - Panama's government passed two decrees on Tuesday allowing the economy ministry to seek a cumulative $9 billion in financing, Panama's council of ministers said in a statement.


The first decree permits the issuance of treasury notes on the local market for up to $6 billion, with maturities between two and 10 years.


The second allows the economy ministry to subscribe to financing schemes with local and international institutions for up to $3 billion.

2024-08-07 12:28:05
Japan's April yen-buying intervention sets new daily record

By Makiko Yamazaki


TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan said on Wednesday that it conducted a record single-day yen-buying intervention in April, selling 5.92 trillion yen ($40.83 billion) worth of dollars in a fight against a falling yen at that time.


Quarterly data from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) showed that Japan spent a record 5.92 trillion yen on a single-day yen-buying intervention on April 29 and a further 3.87 trillion yen on May 1.


The previous single-day record for such intervention was 5.62 trillion yen spent on Oct. 21, 2022, according to MOF data available since 1991.


The latest data represent a detailed daily breakdown of the previously revealed 9.79 trillion yen intervention made during the period from April 26 through May 29.


The two rounds of massive dollar-selling intervention helped push up the yen by 5% from a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar, but failed to reverse the yen's longer-term weakness.


The yen resumed its downturn and slid to a 38-year low of 161.76 per dollar in July, prompting Tokyo to intervene again and spend another 5.53 trillion yen to support its currency.


Later in July, the yen staged a sharp rally as traders aggressively unwound carry trades after a slew of economic data raised the prospect of a U.S. economic downturn and bigger rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.


Separate data from the finance ministry on Wednesday showed that Japan's foreign reserves fell to $1.22 trillion at the end of July, down $12.4 billion from a month earlier, largely due to a drop in foreign securities holdings.


The decline in reserves reflect the sale of its U.S. Treasury holdings to finance the dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention, analysts said.


Japanese authorities would not reveal the make-up of the country's foreign reserves, but most of the foreign securities holdings are believed by economists to be in U.S. Treasuries.


($1 = 144.9800 yen)

2024-08-07 10:42:27
IMF reports progress in El Salvador talks, flags Bitcoin risks

(Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said progress had been made in negotiations with El Salvador toward a fund-supported program with the Central American nation, though issues remained such as its use of Bitcoin cryptocurrency.


Discussions focused on policies that could be supported by an IMF program, it said in a statement, such as those which could strengthen public finances, boost bank reserve buffers, improve governance and transparency and mitigate risks from the country's investment in Bitcoin.


The IMF and El Salvador have reached "preliminary understandings" on improving the nation's primary balance, the IMF said, to around 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) over a three-year period.


The country also plans to gradually strengthen its reserve buffers by reducing reliance on domestic financing and instead receiving support from the IMF and other development banks, the fund said.


On Bitcoin, the IMF said that many potential risks "have not yet materialized," but that there was a joint recognition that El Salvador needed to enhance transparency and mitigate risks from the project.


Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele made bitcoin a legal tender and has touted plans for "Bitcoin City," a tax-free crypto haven powered by geothermal energy from a volcano.

2024-08-07 08:52:05
Norway salmon farming industry grapples with harsh climate effects

By Jesus Calero


(Reuters) - Norwegian salmon farmers face challenges from an unusually harsh winter and the El Nino climate phenomenon which led to record fish mortality and concerns over long-term forecasts ahead of a warmer summer.


El Nino — a climate pattern raising temperatures across the planet — followed by colder waters and a 20-year high in jellyfish attacks have driven fish mortality to a record 16.7% so far this year, the Norwegian Veterinary Institute said.


"This winter has been something close to a perfect storm for the industry when it comes to challenging farming conditions," Carnegie analyst Philip Scrase said.


Norway, the largest producer of farmed Atlantic salmon, accounting for 50% of the global market, hopes for a healing summer after a tough first half of the year.


But record high temperatures and warmer waters increase the threat of sea lice for salmon farmers.


"Treating sea lice (vaccines) often stresses the fish, posing a threat to its welfare and its resilience to other diseases," DNB analyst Alexander Aukner said.


To protect the fish, companies like Leroy Seafood are testing special underwater cages deep in the sea to keep the lice at bay.


Farmers are also keeping young salmon longer in land-based facilities to shield them from harsh climate conditions, though this has not improved mortality rates.


Some facilities are running at too high temperatures, causing fish to outgrow their organs and die when they enter seawater, said Christian Olsen Nordby and Kristoffer Haugland from Arctic Securities.


EXPORT BAN, PROCESSING JAM


Salmon exports make up about 2% of Norway's annual GDP, with 1.2 million tonnes of salmon valued at $11.2 billion exported last year, Norwegian Seafood Council said.


To protect the industry's reputation, Norway has banned the export of wounded fish, classified as low-grade salmon.


This forces farmers to increase domestic processing of low-grade salmon into premium products like fillets or smoked goods that they can sell abroad legally.


Before the ban, unprocessed fish bypassed tariff barriers to reach European markets, but now farmers need to sell the surplus injured fish at a discount to third-party processors, Scrase said.


Those with filleting capacity, like SalMar, meanwhile face inefficiencies in their facilities due to a lack of workers needed to handle the higher volumes.


To tackle this, world's largest producer Mowi and smaller rival Grieg Seafood are upgrading their processing facilities.


However, Scrase noted that salmon spot prices were sliding, as the availability of premium salmon eases supply constraints.


ENOUGH FOR A GUIDANCE CUT


Despite farmers' efforts, analysts doubt the industry's ability to maintain harvest volumes.


SalMar lowered its 2024 volume guidance earlier this year, while other major players have kept projections unchanged.


Kontali, an aquaculture data provider, has revised its 2024 volume growth estimate for Norway and the global market to just 1%, reflecting lower sea biomass.


Aukner and Scrase expect many farmers to struggle to meet their volume targets this year, though the summer is crucial to determine full-year volumes.


"We are yet to see material downgrades in harvest volumes, but the 'buffer' in volume guidance has definitely been eaten into and reduced," Nordby and Haugland said.


($1 = 10.9335 Norwegian crowns)

2024-08-06 16:42:37
Japanese shares bounce back after biggest sell-off since 1987 Black Monday rout

By Brigid Riley


TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday, clawing back most of the double-digit losses suffered the previous day as comments from the U.S. Fed and data gave investors pause in their concerns over recession and equity valuations.


The Nikkei's rally, after the market's biggest single day rout since the 1987 Black Monday sell-off, came as the yen reversed its gains, indicating the carnage in yen-funded global carry trades too was easing.


In a turbulent day of trading, the Nikkei was up 8% at 33,975.53 as of 0516 GMT, after plunging 12.4% on Monday. The index was last up 2,623.1 points, having earlier jumped more than 3,000 points to surpass its largest intraday points gain on record.


The broader Topix was up 7.5% at 2,394.33.


Investors had been shaken by last week's plunge in global stock markets, U.S. recession risks, and worries investments funded by a cheap yen were being unwound, triggering a sell-off in Japanese equities on Monday.


Traders said they now appeared to be reconsidering the severity of their initial response, buying back shares on the dip.


"Fundamentally, nothing significant has changed for the Japanese economy. It is the unwinding of the carry trade driving a lot of the momentum sells," said Ray Sharma-Ong, head of multi-asset investment solutions for Southeast Asia at abrdn.


The Nikkei rally helped lift other Asian stock markets. Overnight, safe-haven U.S. yields too had risen from lows in a sign the panic was abating.


But uncertainties remained, with analysts pointing to the possibility of more volatile market moves in the near-term.


"We're not yet sure if this is just a breather between water-boardings or there is more pain to follow," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.


Japanese officials meanwhile scrambled to calm markets, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida urging caution and calling on market participants to stay calm.


An emergency trilateral meeting of the Ministry of Finance, Financial Services Agency and the Bank of Japan is scheduled for 0600 GMT to discuss markets.


BOJ IN A HURRY?


Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ, noted that the Nikkei also rebounded to varying degrees after the three previous occasions when it experienced double digit declines, including in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008 and Tohoku earthquake in 2011.


"But it took a while before the Nikkei clawed back all those losses," he said.


From July 11 to Monday's close of 31,458.42, the Nikkei has seen 113 trillion yen ($792 billion) wiped off its peak market value.


Monday's collapse was a "reminder that it is next-to-impossible to diversify equity risk by region (or by sector or style) during major corrections or bear markets," said Stephen Dover (NYSE:DOV), chief market strategist and head of Franklin Templeton Institute at Franklin Templeton.


"Opportunity will arise, but in our view, it is premature to step in at this point."


Last week, the BOJ raised interest rates to levels unseen in 15 years, a hawkish move that analysts also say spooked the market especially given fears of a possible U.S. recession.


"The market was afraid (the BOJ) may tighten too fast," said Kenji Abe, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities.


BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) Investment Institute said on Tuesday that they see a "greater risk of a BOJ policy misstep" and are reviewing their Japan overweight position.


On Tuesday, large price rebounds were led by big name technology shares such as chip-related stocks Tokyo Electron, up 15%, and Advantest, rising over 13%.


AI-focused startup investor SoftBank (TYO:9984) Group jumped 8.6%.


Circuit breakers were triggered multiple times before and during the session, causing the temporary suspension of trading in Topix and Nikkei futures.

2024-08-06 15:05:35
Investors' comments on Asia market bounce

(Reuters) - Asian share markets rebounded on Tuesday reversing a historic sell-off after central bankers sought to calm investor fears.


Japan's Nikkei rallied 9.4% as of the midday break, after plunging 12% on Monday in its biggest one-day percentage drop since October 1987.


Currency markets remained on edge, with the yen down 1% after rising for five straight sessions to a seven-month high on Monday.


QUOTES


RON SHAMGAR, HEAD OF AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES, TAMIM ASSET MANAGEMENT, SYDNEY


"My view is that this market turmoil is mostly driven by the yen carry trade being partly unwound. That’s happened on the same day where U.S. jobs numbers came in slightly weaker than expected and a potential imminent attack by Iran on Israel.


"Combine those factors with a market that so far hasn’t seen the usual and bi-annual pullback or correction of 5-10% this calendar year - and you had a so-called rug pull. We think volatility will persist over the next few weeks and stock prices direction will be dictated by the upcoming results season in Australia and the U.S. during late August."


GARY NG, SENIOR ECONOMIST FOR NATIXIS, HONG KONG


"It is hard to say the worst is behind us ... pressure might linger a little bit."


"There are many moving parts, with three key concerns come from the outlook of the U.S. economy, the unwinding of investors' trades in Japan and geopolitical risks in the Middle East ... particularly the last one, which has not been fully realised for now. As for the U.S. recession outlook, we see some sectors in the economy like consumption still holding up, and datasets in the coming weeks might come out not as bad as the surface looks, and it may help stabilise things."


ANDREW JACKSON, HEAD OF FIXED INCOME, VONTOBEL, LONDON

"Last week’s soft U.S. jobs data has continued to wreak havoc across markets, with many asset classes, sectors and regions suffering major declines. The first step of this price correction was in line with our expectations based on the recent data; but we are likely now entering an overshoot territory.

"That said, the fact remains that markets are generally still at or near highs, so the severity of the correction remains unclear. Corporate bonds remain well insulated from the market shock, so any outflows, which could be a catalyst for further declines in already stressed markets, are likely to be muted and we even see a possibility for inflows."

ROB ALMEIDA, GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER, MFS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, BOSTON

"It is hard to know what the stress point for the sell-off was. We think it’s a combination of many factors that have led to too many leveraged trades heading for an exit that can’t fit all of them.

"Many wonder whether the market is overreacting. Price is what you pay and value is what you get. The price of risk assets was too high and value (i.e., returns on equity) we believe was below what people have been expecting. Volatility is the market adjusting for incorrect assumptions, which brings us back to the prior question, the market’s expectations about incomes, we think, was too high. While profits or earnings have yet to crash, markets discount it before it happens via tangential evidence – which is perhaps what it got last week."

2024-08-06 12:50:30
Japan's June real wages rise for first time in nearly two years

By Kaori Kaneko and Satoshi Sugiyama


TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's inflation-adjusted real wages rose in June for the first time in more than two years as nominal pay gained at the fastest pace in nearly three decades, data showed, backing the central bank's view that wage increases are broadening.


However, household spending fell more than expected in the same month, clouding the outlook for the Bank of Japan's plan to steadily raise interest rates.


The latest market rout, which came in the wake of the BOJ's decision last week to raise interest rates, may also dampen consumer sentiment, some analysts say.


Real wages grew 1.1% in June, rising for the first time in 27 months, after a revised 1.3% drop in May, data from the labour ministry showed on Tuesday.


Nominal wages, the average total cash earnings per worker, grew 4.5%, the fastest pace of growth since January 1997, to 498,884 yen ($3,480), the data showed.


Regular pay for permanent workers rose 2.7% in June after a revised 2.6% gain in May, a sign the bumper pay hikes offered by firms in this year's wage negotiations are pushing up household income.


But separate data released on Tuesday showed household spending fell 1.4% in June from a year earlier, more than a median market forecast for a 0.9% drop, suggesting that rising living costs are discouraging consumers from boosting spending.


($1 = 143.3800 yen)

2024-08-06 10:40:48
US bank stocks tumble; weak economic data sparks recession fears

By Manya Saini and Saeed Azhar


(Reuters) -U.S. bank stocks slumped on Monday as fears of a recession sent investors fleeing from a sector closely tied to the health of the economy and toward safe-haven assets.


The S&P 500 Banks Index, tracking a basket of large-cap bank stocks, closed down 2.4%, while the KBW Regional Banking Index fell 2.8%.


Citigroup led big bank losses with a 3.4% fall.


JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) fell 2% and Bank of America declined nearly 2.5%. Goldman Sachs dropped 2.5%.


Lenders typically feel the squeeze as recessions heighten concerns over credit losses due to higher unemployment. Loan demand - a key factor in profitability - also takes a beating.


"The economy is potentially slowing more than people appreciated, based on last week's economic data, that first and foremost is the biggest driver as it impacts loan growth, income growth, credit quality," said Jason Goldberg, banking analyst at Barclays.


Investors have been jittery since a crisis of confidence hit the sector last year, in part due to higher interest rates, and took down three major regional players.


Among regional banks, Customers Bancorp (NYSE:CUBI)'s shares fell nearly 4.4%, while Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN) dropped 3.4%.


"This market volatility, coupled with potential liquidity dislocation, could pose significant challenges for banks, especially in managing funding and liquidity risks," said Moody's (NYSE:MCO) Corp's banking analyst Laurent Birade.


The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a near three-year high of 4.3% in July amid a significant slowdown in hiring, heightening fears the labor market was deteriorating and potentially making the economy vulnerable to a recession.


"It's very normal, especially with interest rates having gone up as much as they have and you're seeing that weakness in the commercial real estate market, to see credit losses normalizing," said Erika Najarian, analyst at UBS.


"The jobs print is essentially saying things are not as awesome as they were, they're not saying that things are terrible."


The economic weakness will likely seep into the sector's outlook after a mixed sector-quarter earnings season, where executives from top U.S. banks remained divided over the Fed's future path on interest rate cuts and flagged deterioration in consumer health.


"This may be a few-day blip. I don't think anybody's ready to call this the beginning of a several-quarter downturn in the markets or the economy," said Stephen Biggar, banking analyst at Argus Research.


Morgan Stanley analyst Manan Gosalia said in a note potential rate cuts will be credit positive for mid-sized banks as it will help reduce funding costs and stimulate loan demand.


The S&P 500 Banks Index is down 9.5% month-to-date, compared with a 6% decline in the benchmark S&P 500. The KBW Regional Banking Index has lost about 10% over the same period.

2024-08-06 08:46:17
Taiwan stocks fall by record 8.4% on tech sector fears, exchange to brief media

By Faith Hung and James Pomfret


TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan stocks ended down 8.4% on Monday, a record slump, with tech stocks including TSMC plunging as investors sold off one of Asia's top performing markets this year, spooked by a poor outlook for global tech stocks and the U.S. economy.


The main index shed 1,807.21 points, its worst one-day percentage fall, to close at 19,830.88, the lowest level since April 23. The decline was fuelled by a sell-off in tech, and then spread more broadly as the index dipped below the key 20,000 level.


"It is difficult to predict when the decline will stop. It's too early to tell," said David Wu, an analyst with Cathay Futures Consulting Department in Taipei.


Taiwan was one of several markets that tumbled across Asia on Monday amid fears the United States could be heading for recession and as investors sought refuge from risk assets.


Concerns about a widening conflict in the Middle East also weighed on sentiment.


The Taiwan Stock Exchange will hold a media conference to "explain recent market movements and contingency response plans" at 3 p.m. (0700 GMT), the exchange said in brief statement. No further details were given.


A two-day rout late last week left the S&P 500 nearly 6% from its July peak while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite extended losses to notch its first 10% correction from a record high since early 2022.


"We think the decline will continue into the next two days, seeking technical support levels of 19,200-19,300 points," Allen Huang, a vice president of Mega International Investment Services, Huang told Reuters.


Shares in the dominant technology stock Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), the world's largest contract chipmaker, took a battering. The stock had surged over the past year amid skyrocketing demand for chips used in artificial intelligence, but its price plunged 9.75%, near the daily limit of 10%, to close at T$815.


"The fundamentals for TSMC have not changed at all. Yes, there was market talk last week that delivery of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)'s new GB 200 chips would be delayed, and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)'s earnings results were terrible. But TSMC and the upstream AI supply chain would not be affected by those events," Huang added.


Taiwan's Minister of Economic Affairs JK Guo, said investors needed to brace for more possible pain. "Everyone must be prepared for a global stock market crash, this is part of the business cycle," Guo told reporters.

2024-08-05 16:21:17