By Karen Freifeld and David Shepardson

(Reuters) - The U.S. will launch its third crackdown in three years on China's semiconductor industry on Monday, restricting exports to 140 companies including chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group, among other moves, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The effort to hobble Beijing's chipmaking ambitions will also hit Chinese chip toolmakers Piotech and SiCarrier Technology with new export restrictions as part of the package, which also takes aim at shipments of advanced memory chips and more chipmaking tools to China.

The move marks one of the Biden Administration's last large scale effort to stymy China's ability to access and produce chips that can help advance artificial intelligence for military applications or otherwise threaten U.S. national security.

It comes just weeks before the swearing in of Republican former president Donald Trump, who is expected to keep in place many of Biden's tough-on-China measures.

The package includes curbs on China-bound shipments of high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which are critical for high-end applications like AI training; new curbs on 24 additional chipmaking tools and three software tools; and new export restrictions on chipmaking equipment manufactured in countries including Singapore and Malaysia.

The tool controls will likely hurt Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX), KLA and Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), as well as non-U.S. companies like Dutch equipment maker ASM International (AS:ASMI).

Among Chinese companies facing new restrictions are nearly two dozen semiconductor companies, two investment companies and over 100 chipmaking tool makers, the sources said. U.S. lawmakers say some of the companies, including Swaysure Technology Co, Qingdao SiEn, and Shenzhen Pensun Technology Co, work with China's Huawei Technologies, the telecommunications equipment leader once hobbled by U.S. sanctions and now at the center of China's advanced chip production and development.

They will be added to the entity list, which bars U.S. suppliers from shipping to them without first receiving a special license. China has stepped up its drive to become self-sufficient in the semiconductor sector in recent years, as the U.S. and other countries have restricted exports of the advanced chips and the tools to make them. However, it remains years behind chip industry leaders like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) in AI chips and chip equipment maker ASML (AS:ASML) in the Netherlands.

The U.S. also is poised to place additional restrictions on Semiconductor Manufacturing International, China's largest contract chip manufacturer, which was placed on the Entity List in 2020 but with a policy that allowed billions of dollars worth of licenses to ship goods to it to be granted.

For the first time, the U.S. will add two companies that make investments in chips to the entity list. Chinese private equity firm Wise (LON:WISEa) Road Capital and tech firm Wingtech Technology Co will be added.

Companies seeking licenses to ship to firms on the Entity List generally get denied.

DUTCH AND JAPANESE EXEMPTED

An aspect of the new package that addresses the foreign direct product rule could hurt some U.S. allies by limiting what their companies can ship to China. The new rule will expand U.S. powers to curb exports of chipmaking equipment by U.S., Japanese, and Dutch manufacturers made in other parts of the world to certain chip plants in China.

Equipment made in Malaysia, Singapore, Israel, Taiwan and South Korea is subject to the rule while the Netherlands and Japan will be exempt. The expanded foreign direct product rule will apply to 16 companies on the entity list that are seen as the most important to China's most advanced chipmaking ambitions.

The rule will also lower to zero the amount of U.S. content that determines when certain foreign items are subject to U.S. control. That will allow the U.S. to regulate any item shipped to China from overseas if it contains any U.S. chips.

The new rules are being released after lengthy discussions with Japan and the Netherlands, which, along with the U.S., dominate the production of advanced chipmaking equipment. The U.S. plans to exempt countries that put in place similar controls, the people said.

Another rule in the package restricts memory used in AI chips that correspond with what is known as "HBM 2" and higher, technology made by South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix and U.S.-based Micron (NASDAQ:MU). Industry sources only expect Samsung Electronics (KS:005930) to be impacted. The latest rules are the third major package of chip-related export restrictions on China implemented under the Biden administration. In October 2022, the U.S. published a sweeping set of controls to curb the sale and manufacture of certain high-end chips which were considered to be the biggest shift in U.S. tech policy toward China since the 1990s.

By Anant Chandak

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The Bank of Korea will take a pass in January but cut interest rates by a quarter-point in February following an unexpected reduction on Thursday to support a weakening economy, according to economists in a Reuters snap poll.

To boost activity in Asia's fourth-largest economy, which narrowly avoided a recession last quarter, the BOK cut rates for a second meeting in a row on Nov. 28 - the first back-to-back reductions since early 2009. Inflation has largely stayed under control.

However, BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said the future remains uncertain given President-elect Donald Trump's plans to hike tariffs. The U.S. is one of South Korea's largest export destinations.

A strong majority of economists, 16 of 22 in a snap poll conducted Nov. 28-29, forecast the BOK would cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in February.

The other six predicted the next quarter-point cut would come in January.

"We now expect one more cut as early as February 2025 and a faster recalibration of policy stance to neutral ... while acknowledging uncertainties related to U.S. trade policy – the timing of the tariffs, their coverage, and their magnitude – could alter the path," Bum Ki Son, economist at Barclays (LON:BARC), said.

He was one of the few economists to correctly predict the surprise November cut.

"With the BOK's concern on growth also becoming structural, given intensified competition and China's aggressive investment, we believe the speed of policy normalisation to neutral could be faster than we expected," Bum Ki Son added.

Median forecasts indicated a cumulative 75 basis-point cut next year, bringing the policy rate to 2.25% by end-September, compared with 2.50% expected in a poll taken before Thursday's central bank meeting.

But there was no clear consensus on the rate at end-September, with 11 of 22 economists forecasting 2.25%, 10 saying 2.50% and one 2.00%.

"The tone of the statement and Governor Rhee's press conference makes clear that further easing is on the way and that supporting economic growth was now the central bank's main priority," Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, said.

"We expect growth to struggle over the coming year. Although exports should continue to perform strongly, this is likely to be offset by further weakness in the labour market and the continued struggles of the property sector."

The BOK downgraded its forecast for economic growth in 2025 to 1.9%, weaker than the previous forecast of 2.1%.

(Other stories from the November Reuters global economic poll)

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures fell slightly on Sunday evening following more warnings of trade tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump, while investors also awaited a slew of cues on interest rates this week.

Futures fell after Wall Street indexes raced to record highs on Friday, as investors cheered persistent signs of resilience in the U.S. economy. Investors also largely maintained bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. 

S&P 500 Futures fell 0.1% to 6,047.50 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.1% to 20,971.75 points by 19:03 ET (00:03 GMT). Dow Jones Futures fell 0.1% to 45,028.0 points. 

Trump threatens ‘100% tariffs’ against BRICS countries 

Trump on Sunday threatened to impose “100% tariffs” on the BRICS bloc of countries, which includes China. 

Trump criticized the bloc’s attempts to form its own currency and shift away from the U.S. dollar, threatening to cut the bloc off from U.S. trade over the move. He called for commitments to the dollar from the bloc.

Trump’s latest comments come after he had last week threatened higher import tariffs against China, Mexico and Canada, rattling global markets with the prospect of more protectionist policies in the U.S.

Investors also feared retaliatory measures from U.S. trading partners, especially China, which could spark a renewed trade war between the world’s biggest economies. 

Wall St at record highs with rate cues in focus 

Wall Street indexes surged to record highs in shortened trading on Friday, as investors cheered recent signs of resilience in the economy and also maintained bets that the Fed will cut rates later in December. 

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures fell slightly on Sunday evening following more warnings of trade tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump, while investors also awaited a slew of cues on interest rates this week.

Futures fell after Wall Street indexes raced to record highs on Friday, as investors cheered persistent signs of resilience in the U.S. economy. Investors also largely maintained bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. 

S&P 500 Futures fell 0.1% to 6,047.50 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.1% to 20,971.75 points by 19:03 ET (00:03 GMT). Dow Jones Futures fell 0.1% to 45,028.0 points. 

Trump threatens ‘100% tariffs’ against BRICS countries 

Trump on Sunday threatened to impose “100% tariffs” on the BRICS bloc of countries, which includes China. 

Trump criticized the bloc’s attempts to form its own currency and shift away from the U.S. dollar, threatening to cut the bloc off from U.S. trade over the move. He called for commitments to the dollar from the bloc.

Trump’s latest comments come after he had last week threatened higher import tariffs against China, Mexico and Canada, rattling global markets with the prospect of more protectionist policies in the U.S.

Investors also feared retaliatory measures from U.S. trading partners, especially China, which could spark a renewed trade war between the world’s biggest economies. 

Wall St at record highs with rate cues in focus 

Wall Street indexes surged to record highs in shortened trading on Friday, as investors cheered recent signs of resilience in the economy and also maintained bets that the Fed will cut rates later in December. 

Investing.com -- With the U.S. stock market close to record highs investors will be watching Friday’s jobs report for fresh insights into how the economy is faring ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Investors will also get to hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and get an update on the outlook for global growth as tariff threats mount. Here's your look at what's happening in markets for the week ahead.

1. U.S. jobs report

Strong economic growth has driven stocks higher all year, despite concerns that inflation could rebound if the central bank lowers rates too far, undoing two years of progress in curbing price pressures.

A repeat of September’s blowout jobs report could disrupt expectations for future Fed rate cuts, threatening to undermine a key support for the stock rally.

Last week’s minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting revealed a lack of consensus among officials on the path of future rate cuts.

Economists are expecting the economy to have added 202,000 jobs in November after disruptions from strikes and hurricanes led to weakness in October’s report.

2. Powell comments

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to take part in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit on Wednesday and investors will be closely watching for any comments on the strength of the labor market and the inflation outlook or how much the Fed may cut intertest rates at its upcoming December meeting.

Apart from Powell, several other Fed officials are scheduled to make appearances during the week including Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.

3. Tariff threat

Last week President-elect Trump jolted markets when he threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on goods from China as soon as he is inaugurated on January 20th.

The pledge has raised fears of a trade war between the U.S. and two of its biggest trading partners. The auto sector is particularly vulnerable to higher tariffs as it utilizes a highly integrated supply chain across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

Meanwhile, analysts think Beijing could implement fresh stimulus measures to offset the economic drag of a trade war and several say the ultimate result could be an acceleration of China's high-tech self-sufficiency drive.

Investors have been pricing in expectations that Trump's pro-business policies could spur economic growth and corporate profits. However, many economists fear that tariffs will stoke inflation, slow the pace of the Fed's rate cuts and weigh on global growth.

4. OECD Outlook

The OECD will publish its latest Economic Outlook, containing analysis and projections for the world economy on Wednesday.

In its September forecast the Paris-based organization said it expected the global economy to grow 3.2% both this and next year, nudging up its 2024 forecast from 3.1% previously while leaving 2025 unchanged.

With inflation heading towards central bank targets, the OECD projected that the Fed’s main interest rate would ease to 3.5% by the end of 2025 from 4.75%-5% currently and European Central Bank would cut to 2.25% from 3.5% now.

5. Oil prices

Oil prices ended last week around 3% lower amid easing concern over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the prospect of increased supply in 2025 even as OPEC+ is expected to extend output cuts.

The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5. OPEC+ is expected to decide on a further extension to production cuts at the meeting.

Last month OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025 amid economic weakness in top importer China, as well as in India and other regions.

The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, expects global oil supply to exceed demand in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+.

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy improved in October due to tourism, exports and private consumption, which was helped by the government's economic stimulus measures, the Bank of Thailand said on Friday.

Exports, a key driver of the economy, rose 14.2% in October from a year earlier, while imports rose 17.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.4 billion, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) said.

As such, industrial production increased in line with domestic demand and exports, excluding automobiles, it said.

The current account surplus was $0.7 billion in October, up slightly from September's surplus of $0.6 billion, it said.

Private consumption increased 0.8% in October from September and private investment rose 4.5%, the central bank said, adding that government spending also rose sharply.

Tourism, another key economic driver, helped the service sectors. However, structural impediments pressured business and household income in some groups, the BOT said.

The BOT cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in a surprise decision at its Oct. 16 review. It also raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.6%, but trimmed its 2025 growth outlook to 2.9% from 3.0%.

The economy grew an annual 3% in the July-September quarter, the fastest pace in two years, but officials and analysts saw increased challenges to maintaining the momentum next year.

BEIJING (Reuters) - China will extend tariff exemptions for the import of some U.S. products until Feb. 28, 2025, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council said on Friday.

The listed items, including rare earth metal ore, medical disinfectant, nickel-cadmium battery and others will remain exempt from additional tariffs imposed as countermeasures to the U.S. Section 301 actions, the commission said.

By Alasdair Pal and Cordelia Hsu

SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australians reacted on Friday with a mixture of anger and relief to a social media ban on children under 16 that the government says is world-leading, but which tech giants like TikTok argue could push young people to "darker corners of the internet".

Australia approved the social media ban for children late on Thursday after an emotive debate that has gripped the nation, setting a benchmark for jurisdictions around the world with one of the toughest regulations targeting Big Tech.

The law forces tech giants from Instagram and Facebook owner Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) to TikTok to stop minors from logging in or face fines of up to A$49.5 million ($32 million). A trial of enforcement methods will start in January, with the ban to take effect in a year.

"Platforms now have a social responsibility to ensure the safety of our kids is a priority for them," Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Friday

"We're making sure that mums and dads can have that different conversation today and in future days."

Announcing the details of the ban earlier this month, Albanese cited the risks to physical and mental health of children from excessive social media use, in particular the risks to girls from harmful depictions of body image, and misogynist content aimed at boys.

In Sydney on Friday, reaction to the ban was mixed.

"I think that's a great idea, because I found that the social media for kids (is) not really appropriate, sometimes they can look at something they shouldn't," said Sydney resident Francesca Sambas.

Others were more scathing.

"I'm feeling very angry, I feel that this government has taken democracy and thrown it out the window," said 58-year-old Shon Klose.

"How could they possibly make up these rules and these laws and push it upon the people?"

Children, meanwhile, said they would try to find a way around the ban.

"I feel like I still will use it, just secretly get in," said 11-year-old Emma Wakefield.

WORLD FIRST

Countries including France and some U.S. states have passed laws to restrict access for minors without a parent's permission, but the Australian ban is absolute. A full under-14s ban in Florida is being challenged in court on free speech grounds.

The legislation was fast-tracked through the country's parliament in what is the last sitting week of the year, to criticism from social media firms and some lawmakers who say the bill has lacked proper scrutiny. It passed through the country's lower house of parliament on Friday morning in a procedural hearing.

A spokesperson for TikTok, which is hugely popular with teen users, said on Friday the process had been rushed and risked putting children into greater danger.

"We're disappointed the Australian government has ignored the advice of the many mental health, online safety, and youth advocacy experts who have strongly opposed the ban," the spokesperson said.

"It's entirely likely the ban could see young people pushed to darker corners of the internet where no community guidelines, safety tools, or protections exist."

Albanese said on Friday passing the bill before the age verification trial has been completed was the correct approach.

"We are very clearly sending a message about our intentions here," he said.

"The legislation is very clear. We don't argue that its implementation will be perfect, just like the alcohol ban for under 18s doesn't mean that someone under 18 never has access, but we know that it's the right thing to do."

The ban could strain Australia's relationship with key ally the United States, where X owner Elon Musk, a central figure in the administration of president-elect Donald Trump, said in a post this month it seemed a "backdoor way to control access to the Internet by all Australians".

It also builds on an existing mood of antagonism between Australia and mostly US-domiciled tech giants. Australia was the first country to make social media platforms pay media outlets royalties for sharing their content and now plans to threaten them with fines for failing to stamp out scams.

Investing.com-- The Japanese yen hit its strongest level against the dollar in just over a month on Friday as higher-than-expected inflation data from Tokyo reinforced expectations for a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

The yen’s USD/JPY pair- which gauges the amount of yen needed to buy one dollar- sank around 1% to as low as 150.01 yen- its lowest level since late-October. 

The drop in the pair came as consumer price index data from Tokyo read stronger than expected for November.

The reading acts as a bellwether for nationwide inflation, and factored into expectations that steady inflation will keep the BOJ hawkish in the coming months. 

A recent Reuters poll showed traders are positioning for a 25 basis point rate hike by the BOJ in December. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda had also recently reiterated the central bank’s plans to hike interest rates further, citing a “virtuous cycle” of higher wages and steady inflation.

“The acceleration in inflation, combined with the solid recovery in monthly activity, increases the odds of another BoJ rate hike in December,” ING analysts wrote in a note. 

A December hike will be the BOJ’s third hike in 2024, as the central bank ended nearly a decade of negative rates and began tightening policy. The bank’s moves were driven largely by a sharp pick-up in wages this year, which underpinned private spending and inflation.

UBS analysts said in a recent note that they expect Japanese wages to rise further in 2025, potentially heralding more rate hikes from the BOJ. The central bank is also expected to act in supporting the yen, which was battered by a substantially stronger dollar through November. 

Japanese stocks retreated on the prospect of high rates. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% on Friday, while the TOPIX shed 0.6%.

By Harry Robertson

LONDON (Reuters) - French borrowing costs effectively matched those of Greece on Thursday for the first time, as Michel Barnier's government teetered on the brink of collapse, underlining a dramatic shift in how lenders view the creditworthiness of euro zone members.

Far-right and leftist opposition parties have been threatening to bring down Barnier's government over its budget that includes 60 billion euros ($63 billion) in tax hikes and spending cuts.

Bond investors worry that the collapse of the government would mean any effort to cut borrowing is jettisoned.

"A no-confidence vote would reset the progress made with the current budget proposal and trigger a new period of political limbo," said Michiel Tukker, senior European rates strategist at lender ING.

In the middle of the euro zone sovereign crisis in 2012, Greece's borrowing costs, as measured by its 10-year bond yield, shot to more than 37 percentage points above those in France, as Greece looked destined to default on its debts.

Fast forward 12-1/2 years and Greek debt on Thursday morning traded within 0.02 percentage points of France at around 3%.

France's rising debt levels have been slowly eroding its advantages in the bond market for years. Then, the risk premium investors demand to buy French debt compared to its neighbours shot higher in June when President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election that resulted in a fragile hung parliament.

Meanwhile, the countries once at the centre of the 2012 crisis and labeled the PIGS - Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain - have cut their debt levels and become more attractive to bond investors.

Greek public debt was already running at 100% of GDP before the euro zone crisis and surged to more than 200% as COVID-19 hit in 2020. But it has since fallen to around 160% of GDP and economists expect it to continue to fall.

French debt is historically elevated at 112% of GDP and rising. The state has spent heavily in response to the shocks of COVID-19 and the Ukraine war, while tax receipts have lagged expectations.

"Even if the government did achieve its planned consolidation, France would still have a pretty elevated budget deficit," said Max Kitson, rates strategist at Barclays (LON:BARC).

"If you look at Greece's debt-to-GDP profile, you have a downwards trajectory which contrasts with France's upwards trajectory."

Similar efforts to rein in debt - as well as years of bond purchases by the European Central Bank - in Ireland, Portugal and Spain have seen those countries' borrowing costs fall below those of France.

On the plus side for France, its bond yields have not risen sharply in absolute terms and are in fact down around 16 basis points since the start of the month.

Friday evening will prove a test, when S&P Global Ratings will update its assessment of France, after Fitch and Moody's (NYSE:MCO) downgraded their outlooks on the country last month.

By Takaya Yamaguchi

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's tax revenues are likely to hit a record high for a fifth straight year in the current fiscal year ending in March 2025, four government sources told Reuters.

The government will tap the additional revenues to fund part of a 13.9 trillion yen ($91.7 billion) spending package aimed at cushioning the blow to households from rising living costs.

It will also issue new government debt exceeding 6 trillion yen, the sources said, declining to be identified because the information is not public.

Total (EPA:TTEF) nominal tax revenues for the current fiscal year, initially estimated at 69.6 trillion yen, will likely increase to around 73.4 trillion yen due to robust corporate profits and rising inflation, they added.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced last week a plan to compile the spending package, which includes fuel subsidies and payouts to low-income households to deal with increasing prices.

The government is expected to finalise on Friday a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year to fund the stimulus measures.

Unlike other advanced nations that had phased out crisis-mode stimulus, Japan continues to compile big-spending packages to underpin a fragile economic recovery.

Including debt issued to roll over maturing bonds, the outstanding balance of Japanese government bonds (JGB) has ballooned to 1,100 trillion yen - twice the size of Japan's economy and the largest among advanced nations.

($1 = 151.5400 yen)